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Outpost31

We Haven't Picked A Skill Position In the First in 15 Years

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Rodgers said this last night.  I'm sick of people not seeing what happens when you draft a skill position in the first round.  I say it's a bad idea not just because of positional value, but because it flat out doesn't work. 

There is one profoundly significant disclaimer to this.  Between 2005-2019, the Patriots drafted ZERO skill position players in the first round.  Them drafting Harry last year skews this. 

Here are the teams that HAVE drafted a skill position in the first round in the past 15 years. 

Receiver and tight ends only.  As you'll see, there have been two teams that have not drafted a skill position player in the first round in the past 15 years.  Those two teams are the Seahawks and the Packers.  BOTH with direct lines back to Wolfe.  Positional value is real, and this is not a coincidence that there are only two teams to not draft a skill position player in the first round. 

If you were to remove N'Keal Harry, you would have 5 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners out of the three teams (Patriots, Packers, Seahawks) to win a Super Bowl without having taken a skill position in the first round.

Additionally, look at the franchises that take them at a higher rate. 

You've got the Lions, Vikings, Bengals, Falcons, Jaguars, Browns, Giants as the biggest offenders on this list. 

That's 22/68 skill position players drafted by 7 of the worst-run teams in the NFL.

6/68 skill position players have won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them.

Lions - Ebron, Williams, Pettigrew, Hockensen, Johnson
Vikings - Treadwell, Williamson, Patterson, Harvin
Bengals - Ross, Eiffert, Gresham, Green
Falcons - White, Jones, Ridley
Ravens - Hurst, Perriman, Clayton, Brown
Jacksonville - Lewis, Jones, Blackmon
Niners - Jenkins, Davis, Crabtree
Giants - Nicks, Engram, Beckham
Browns - Njoku, Edwards, Coleman
Panthers - Moore, Benjamin
Eagles - Agholor, Maclin
Steelers - Holmes, Miller
Bears - White, Olsen
Buccaneers - Howard, Evans
Colts - Dorsett, Gonzalez
Saints - Meachem, Cooks
Titans - Davis, Britt, Wright
Dolphins - Parker, Ginn
Raiders - Heyward-Bey, Cooper
Chiefs - Baldwin, Bowe
Texans - Fuller, Hopkins
Broncos - Thomas, Fant
Chargers - Williams, Davis
Bills - Watkins
Rams - Austin
Cardinals - Floyd
Dallas - Bryant
Redskins - Doctson
Patriots - Harry
Jets - Keller

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Disclaimer:

I'm not saying you can't win a Super Bowl if you take a skill position in one, but even the most stubborn has to admit that out of 68 skill position players drafted in the first round, only 6 have actually won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them.

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Not all that surprising really.  I want QB and OT taken in RD1. 

WR/RB/TE... not so much.

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Well, "that drafting WRs/RBs/TEs high doesn't work as well as drafting OTs/Edges/DBs/QBs high" is precisely what we mean by positional value.  A good wide receiver just probably doesn't improve your team as much as a good left tackle. A good running back doesn't improve your team as much as a similar quality pass rusher.

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Haven’t drafted a skill player in the 1st round in 15 years. But have won a SB, been to several NFCCGs and overall have been one of the best teams in the league. There is a correlation here. You can lead a blind horse to water...

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Posted (edited)
Just now, YaddaHolla said:

Haven’t drafted a skill player in the 1st round in 15 years. But have won a SB, been to several NFCCGs and overall have been one of the best teams in the league. There is a correlation here. You can lead a blind horse to water...

...but you can't make it open it's stupid equine eyes and see that skill positions are the least important positions in football. 

Alex Smith had Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on that roster, too.  What set the Chiefs apart?  Having an elite QB on a rookie deal. 

 

Edited by Outpost31

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26 minutes ago, YaddaHolla said:

Haven’t drafted a skill player in the 1st round in 15 years. But have won a SB, been to several NFCCGs and overall have been one of the best teams in the league. There is a correlation here. You can lead a blind horse to water...

There's certainly a correlation here. Look at which teams consistently pick their skill position players in the first round.

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I hope you dont mind, I copied your original post and texted it to a buddy. He needed to see that. 

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I'm OK with not drafting skill players in the first round.

But we haven't drafted any in the second round either in recent years. In fact in the last 4 years, one Tight End (in the 3rd round) is the only skill player taken before the 3rd day. The refusal to use any meaningful picks whatsoever on skill players has co-incided with the offence falling off a cliff.

 

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4 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

I'm OK with not drafting skill players in the first round.

But we haven't drafted any in the second round either in recent years. In fact in the last 4 years, one Tight End (in the 3rd round) is the only skill player taken before the 3rd day. The refusal to use any meaningful picks whatsoever on skill players has co-incided with the offence falling off a cliff.

 

First, we don’t need skill positions to win a Super Bowl.  The Chiefs didn’t start their comeback until the defense shut down the Niners.  Even we started “coming back” offensively in the second half.  It’s just that our defense didn’t stop them.  
 

That said, last year we got a hell of an IOL in 2 and our projected starter at TE in the third.  

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9 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

First, we don’t need skill positions to win a Super Bowl.  The Chiefs didn’t start their comeback until the defense shut down the Niners.  Even we started “coming back” offensively in the second half.  It’s just that our defense didn’t stop them.  
 

That said, last year we got a hell of an IOL in 2 and our projected starter at TE in the third.  

I think I could live with sacrificing the skill players if we had a shut down defence. But we are stuck in no-man's land. The receiving group has been decimated over the years and we still have a defence that didn't look like it could stop the 49ers if we played all day - they didn't even have to try and pass it. 

You can't win a shoot-out if you haven't got more than one receiver and the defence isn't good enough to mean we don't need to rely on winning shoot-outs.

Obviously its so premature - we may finally pick a receiver in round 2 and hit the jackpot in the later rounds. The first round receivers could bust anyway. Its always a bit gutting though when pretty much the only thing you didn't want us to do, we did.

Clinging to the thought that if Gute did this, he must really really rate Love. I guess ultimately if you have your guy, you don't pick him and he becomes a star then you regret it forever so I guess he had to do it. 

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1 minute ago, mikemike778 said:

I think I could live with sacrificing the skill players if we had a shut down defence. But we are stuck in no-man's land. The receiving group has been decimated over the years and we still have a defence that didn't look like it could stop the 49ers if we played all day - they didn't even have to try and pass it. 

You can't win a shoot-out if you haven't got more than one receiver and the defence isn't good enough to mean we don't need to rely on winning shoot-outs.

Obviously its so premature - we may finally pick a receiver in round 2 and hit the jackpot in the later rounds. The first round receivers could bust anyway. Its always a bit gutting though when pretty much the only thing you didn't want us to do, we did.

Clinging to the thought that if Gute did this, he must really really rate Love. I guess ultimately if you have your guy, you don't pick him and he becomes a star then you regret it forever so I guess he had to do it. 

You can't win a shootout if your QB can't throw a deep ball either. 

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Also, how many 1st round skill picks did the Packers have on the 2011/14 offenses that were drafted by GB?

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Few things:

I loved the Love pick but playing devils advocate:

-The analysis is a little skewed. 1 team wins the super bowl every year. If you do this across the board with every position, you’ll probably find a similar 10% ring rate.
 

-it isn’t just that we haven’t taken a skilled position player in forever in round 1. The last one we drafted in the first 2 rounds was Adams in 2014. We haven’t been good at WR in 4 years and it is showing more now that AR has physically declined  

 

 

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