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2020 Draft Pick #55 - JK Dobbins

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2 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

We just had the greatest rushing season in the modern NFL history, and we did it with average RBs. Now we'll see how it looks with an explosive player in the backfield next to Lamar. 

Ingram is not an average running back. 

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If Dobbins get 150 touches, then we should expect something close to 900-1000 yards, otherwise we get same production from him that we got from Edwards and Ingram

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2 minutes ago, coordinator0 said:

Ingram is not an average running back. 

He above average running inside, but in terms of running outside the tackles and receiving he is below average. Overall he's average. Many other backs are more explosive. For us he just ran inside so it's a great role for him. 

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Confirms it was a BPA pick

 

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17 minutes ago, drd23 said:

Confirms it was a BPA pick

 

Which is why the pick didn’t upset me. I’m pissed we missed out on Denzel Mims... but I’m not going to complain about it too much because JK Dobbins was a special RB. I hadn’t really considered him because I thought he would be a sure fire top of 2nd round pick option... kind of like our 3rd rounder JM.

I feel our drafts always end up best when we select for BPA. This pick reminds me a lot of when we took Ray Rice even though we already had Willis McGahee have a quality season with us in 2007 with that game that closed out the old Cowboys stadium. Rice was the difference making engine that was a huge playmaking part in us winning that Super Bowl in 2012... and I think JK Dobbins is that same kind of talent. I’ll have to work on an optimal comp for him.

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I'll always question the value, but Waldman knows his HBs. Gotta love that comp too. Hope he has a great career with us.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

I'll always question the value, but Waldman knows his HBs. Gotta love that comp too. Hope he has a great career with us.

 

Ray Rice was my lazy comp for him, but there’s definitely an innate difference between the two. Rice ran a little more compact and had a bit better contact balance... but didn’t have the same level of breakaway speed as JK Dobbins. Priest Holmes was another quick lazy comp for him as well, but JKD wasn’t as shifty as Holmes either, so it wasn’t the ideal fit.

I would give the Ray Rice comp to Clyde Edwards-Helair (though a slower version). Would probably give a comp of D’Andre Swift to Clinton Portis.

After clawing back through the annals of history and looking over some other great backs from yesteryears, I stumbled upon a back in the same era as Portis... because I knew JK Dobbins style of play was “familiar” to me somehow. Curtis Martin was a bit too far back for me and so I didn’t feel comfortable going in that direction... but once I popped in Ahman Green and I felt that stylistically, size, speed... it all fit. The only major difference between Ahman Green and JK Dobbins is that JKD doesn’t have the same fumbling issues attached to his resume... that’s actually one of his strengths.

I see a similar NFL career of potential with a guy that can be very effective in the passing attack, has a mixture between speed, quickness, and power. Ahman Green was kind of your poor man’s LaDainian Tomlinson and that’s what I feel JK Dobbins brings to the table as well.

 

Edited by diamondbull424

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Posted (edited)

I'm skeptical about this one. It's a small margin pick - for Dobbins to be worth it basically, he has to be a star. Otherwise it's not a worthwhile addition to what is an above average RB room already. It sounds like they think he is a star though. If he is, then I'll forget we passed on Mims, not to mention Josh Jones, Uche, Baun and others. And honestly Lamar with a bonafide star RB would be unstoppable. So It just comes down to whether he's up for it. 

Edited by BaltimoreTerp

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Love this pick. Best RB in draft imo and if we’d swapped where him and Queen got picked I would’ve considered it a home run 

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I think you guys are going to be very happy with him. He’s got great balance, ability after contact, is a really solid athlete with homerun ability, is great laterally, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a Pro Bowler by Year 2.

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9 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I think you guys are going to be very happy with him. He’s got great balance, ability after contact, is a really solid athlete with homerun ability, is great laterally, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a Pro Bowler by Year 2.

So far, the main criticism (which I am one of the frontrunners of) is that we don't see the value grabbing him in the second round. We have 2 proven players and a fast player from last years draft. Dobbins have to put a lot of production on the field to warrant being drafted high

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25 minutes ago, Danand said:

So far, the main criticism (which I am one of the frontrunners of) is that we don't see the value grabbing him in the second round. We have 2 proven players and a fast player from last years draft. Dobbins have to put a lot of production on the field to warrant being drafted high

Eh, Ingram is getting old. Smart to reload IMO.

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1 hour ago, Danand said:

So far, the main criticism (which I am one of the frontrunners of) is that we don't see the value grabbing him in the second round. We have 2 proven players and a fast player from last years draft. Dobbins have to put a lot of production on the field to warrant being drafted high

Ingram will be 31 this season. The reason why they say RBs fall off a cliff at 30 isn’t because they slowly decline, but rather because it happens all at once.

Even then Ingram wasn’t a stud, he was a good RB. It was his enthusiasm that was most infectious to this team and offense. He made the pro bowl, but that injury this season just might be more of what his future entails... and if not for Big Truss... do we really think he makes the pro bowl??

And before people attack me as if I’m trashing Ingram, I’m not... but compare Ingram’s level of ability to prime Jamal Lewis or prime Ray Rice... if LDT and AD are the “elite” gold standards at the position and our guys (Lewis and Rice) were “great” backs are their peak. Calling 30 year old Ingram simply “good” or even “above average” is no disservice; but what he did was essentially put up the same season Willis McGahee put up for us in 2007... except you’re trading more carries (McGahee) for the Lamar effect that opens up holes (Ingram).

Look at how much the team improved offensively when Ray Rice activated his second season. We're adding a RB that I have ranked similarly to how I ranked Ray Rice coming out of Rutgers (running for the Ravens... had to do it). JKD is probably a little higher too because he has less carries on his frame but just as much peak display. Would have him likely somewhere between Ray Rice and Nick Chubb as RB prospects.

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Even if it is a case of adding talent in just time, I still think it is a case of adding talent because of a lot of "ifs and buts" which we could say about every position.

I have seen it mentioned that Ingram might get cut next year due to age and decline and Gus will be a FA, but if that is the reasoning, then look at our edge group, where the only guy on contract beyond next year is Jaylon Ferguson.

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