2.62 - AJ Dillon [RB; Boston College]

[ThatJerkDave]

Anyone else kind of see some Ron Dayne in Dillon? Both are big and are faster than they look.  Will break arm tackles.  Not the Earl Campbell type bulldozer their size would suggest they are.

[MacReady]

On 5/7/2020 at 11:07 AM, hitnhope said:

I would have been disappointed with a WR,RB, TE first three rounds.   Even worse "value" than our draft was.

Drop an OT and/or DT in there and things would look better.

I have decided that it is meaningless to draft an IDL after the first round.  Looking at it, the success rate of IDL that last into the second round has to be among the worst at any position.  And even when they do hit, it’s not until year three or four.

[vegas492]

11 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Anyone else kind of see some Ron Dayne in Dillon? Both are big and are faster than they look.  Will break arm tackles.  Not the Earl Campbell type bulldozer their size would suggest they are.

I don't see the feet of Dayne or Lacy with Dillon.  Those dude (Lacy/Dayne) were bigger up top, but light on those feet.  Dillon looks bigger on the bottom half, heavier of foot.  I do think he'll be good, but I just don't see the light feet with Dillon.  And to be fair, I don't think many backs had feet like Dayne and Lacy, they were freaks in that regard.

[hitnhope]

IDL is a tough position to draft.   Hard to project.   But you have to have good lineman.   If they fail the rest of the positions don't matter as much.

I would have liked to see us pick up an OT for sure.   Niang went to the chiefs 2 picks after Deguara.   Will be interesting to see how he develops.  Hopefully Runyan turns out, and it becomes a non-issue.

 

I wasn't bothered by not picking a WR.  They went off the board in a way that made it difficult for us to get one.   That is life.

[ThatJerkDave]

19 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I don't see the feet of Dayne or Lacy with Dillon.  Those dude (Lacy/Dayne) were bigger up top, but light on those feet.  Dillon looks bigger on the bottom half, heavier of foot.  I do think he'll be good, but I just don't see the light feet with Dillon.  And to be fair, I don't think many backs had feet like Dayne and Lacy, they were freaks in that regard.

Good point.  He isn't as nifty as either of them, I think he may look a little more powerful.  All three look slow, but don't seem to get caught any more than anyone else was my main thinking.  

[vegas492]

5 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Good point.  He isn't as nifty as either of them, I think he may look a little more powerful.  All three look slow, but don't seem to get caught any more than anyone else was my main thinking.  

Powerful for sure.  Willing contact player, too.  No dancing.  

He's going to like being a rookie on a job share basis.  Let him recover from last year.  Give him a year in the strength and conditioning program and he could gain some quickness, just like Jones did.  

[deathstar]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

I don't see the feet of Dayne or Lacy with Dillon.  Those dude (Lacy/Dayne) were bigger up top, but light on those feet.  Dillon looks bigger on the bottom half, heavier of foot.  I do think he'll be good, but I just don't see the light feet with Dillon.  And to be fair, I don't think many backs had feet like Dayne and Lacy, they were freaks in that regard.

Waldman does a good breakdown of his feet here. 

[Joe]

@vegas492 and @ThatJerkDave. Do we really need him to have the kind of feet Lacy and Dayne had? Of course you would love that with a big back, but Dillon strikes me as a guy who can shoulder the load as a change-of-pace back to Jones. He's the guy you put late in the game when you want to grind out the clock. He's not going to fumble the ball and his vision is well above average. After reading the scouting reports on him again, I firmly think he'll be a much better pro than as a college player as long as he stays healthy.

[craig]

Yikes, I sure hope you guys are wrong on this.  I sure *HOPE* he's way better, or at least way more productive, than Dayne. 

• Dayne average over 3.4 YPC only once in his first three seasons, and that was a measly 3.8 season. 
• He was worthless in the receiving game:  in his first 5 seasons, only twice did he exceed 20 yards, and his "big" receiving seasons were 67 and yards. 
• His only season with 800 total yards was his 7th and final season.  

So *if* Dillon is an inferior version of Dayne, that's going to be a wasted pick, IMO.  I admit that's a concern I have with the whole "big back" theory.  Not many backs, no matter how big, are going to just plow NFL defenders backwards for 5 yards a carry.  Yes, I get driving for an extra yard, and I get breaking an arm tackle.  But you've got to run between people, or under them, not over them; and some shiftiness sure helps a lot.  

[ThatJerkDave]

I was just comparing running style.  Dillon may be an all time great.  He may not gain a single yard.  I wasn't making any kind of prediction.

[Joe]

35 minutes ago, craig said:

Yikes, I sure hope you guys are wrong on this.  I sure *HOPE* he's way better, or at least way more productive, than Dayne. 

• Dayne average over 3.4 YPC only once in his first three seasons, and that was a measly 3.8 season. 
• He was worthless in the receiving game:  in his first 5 seasons, only twice did he exceed 20 yards, and his "big" receiving seasons were 67 and yards. 
• His only season with 800 total yards was his 7th and final season.  

So *if* Dillon is an inferior version of Dayne, that's going to be a wasted pick, IMO.  I admit that's a concern I have with the whole "big back" theory.  Not many backs, no matter how big, are going to just plow NFL defenders backwards for 5 yards a carry.  Yes, I get driving for an extra yard, and I get breaking an arm tackle.  But you've got to run between people, or under them, not over them; and some shiftiness sure helps a lot.  

But all that goes back to my rhetorical question. I don't think we're expecting this guy to come in and be a starter in year 1 like Dayne or Lacy. If Aaron Jones wouldn't get an extension, I strongly think we would draft a similar back or even sign a similar back after next year. There are very few cases in the league where one back pretty much does all the work and by drafting a guy like Dillon so high, I strongly think the idea was to take a good chunk of work off of Jones' shoulders. I think we can all agree on that.

Edited May 15, 2020 by Joe

[craig]

I'm not questioning that, Joe.  Just wondering whether the "big back" preference is actually smart.  The Packers have had the "big backs are good for cold weather and good for short yardage" concept for ages.  But how great has our running game tended to be with that mindset?  And who's the best back we've actually had?  Not the big backs, but Jones, the quick back who can get under, get between, get around, and get outside.  And who doesn't need the blocking to run on script; who's quick enough to stop and go wherever the seam happens to form, even if the defense prevents it from being the place the script had intended the seam to form.  

Kind of my same question for receivers.  Yes, we're obsessed with big 6'4" receivers.  But does being that big actually help?  The tall ones usually end up not being very shifty and tend to be easy to cover.  We want the big ones.  But who have been four of our five best ones over the last 20 years?  Other than Jordy, the other 4 best guys (Adams, Jennings, Driver and Cobb) have been the shorter quicker guys. 

[Dubz41]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Yikes, I sure hope you guys are wrong on this.  I sure *HOPE* he's way better, or at least way more productive, than Dayne. 

• Dayne average over 3.4 YPC only once in his first three seasons, and that was a measly 3.8 season. 
• He was worthless in the receiving game:  in his first 5 seasons, only twice did he exceed 20 yards, and his "big" receiving seasons were 67 and yards. 
• His only season with 800 total yards was his 7th and final season.  

So *if* Dillon is an inferior version of Dayne, that's going to be a wasted pick, IMO.  I admit that's a concern I have with the whole "big back" theory.  Not many backs, no matter how big, are going to just plow NFL defenders backwards for 5 yards a carry.  Yes, I get driving for an extra yard, and I get breaking an arm tackle.  But you've got to run between people, or under them, not over them; and some shiftiness sure helps a lot.  

Dayne was soooo bad in the passing game that the defense knew it was a run when he was on the field.  It's up to MLF to disguise and deceive the defense.  That means that we will throw to Dillon at least once in a while and use him in a more diverse scheme than Dayne was used in....theoretically.

[craig]

2 hours ago, Dubz41 said:

Dayne was soooo bad in the passing game that the defense knew it was a run when he was on the field.  It's up to MLF to disguise and deceive the defense.  That means that we will throw to Dillon at least once in a while and use him in a more diverse scheme than Dayne was used in....theoretically.

Great point.  I agree completely. 

[ThatJerkDave]

3 hours ago, Joe said:

But all that goes back to my rhetorical question. I don't think we're expecting this guy to come in and be a starter in year 1 like Dayne or Lacy. If Aaron Jones wouldn't get an extension, I strongly think we would draft a similar back or even sign a similar back after next year. There are very few cases in the league where one back pretty much does all the work and by drafting a guy like Dillon so high, I strongly think the idea was to take a good chunk of work off of Jones' shoulders. I think we can all agree on that.

I feel really good about the RB room this year.  In fact, I think we are going to have to cut some good ones even.  Jones and Williams have both been capable starters, and we added Dillon.  I also really like Damarea Crockett and Patrick Taylor.  We also spent a 6th on Dexter Williams just last year.  And re-signing Tyler Ervin.  I think this is the best I have felt about the RB room since the days of Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, and Tony Fisher.  Of course, I also liked the combo of Lacy and Starks, shows what I know  

Dillon probably doesn't get a huge workload this season.