2.62 - AJ Dillon [RB; Boston College]

[vegas492]

14 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Probably not.  His production was too spread out.  Lacy was putting up 1300 total yards and 12 TDs over those two seasons.  The guy made the Pro Bowl as a rookie.  He was 8th in the league in rushing and 3rd in TDs.  The next season he was 7th in rushing and 3rd in TDs.  Cook's third season is equal to Lacy's rookie and sophomore campaigns.  If Cook has a repeat of 2019, then retires, sure he is worth the 2nd round pick, IMO.

Who are our best 2nd rounders? Greg Jennings, Chad Clifton, Jordy Nelson?

Who are our worst 2nd rounders? Pat Lee, Josh Jones, Jason Spriggs?

Lacy is somewhere in the middle.  You would like to have more.  But he was a very productive short term player.  And not a complete bust.  

Maybe Nick Collins is in that 2nd round stuff.

And maybe he's a good comp for Cook if Cook retires right away.....

Just defending Pat Lee a touch here, but he did play in the Super Bowl win, and played well, along with Jarret Bush.  And I'm still bummed about Josh Jones.  

[ThatJerkDave]

17 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Maybe Nick Collins is in that 2nd round stuff.

Yeah, I was just putting a few down.  We have had more that would probably go on both lists, and more that would probably also be somewhere in the middle.  Like Darryn Colledge.  We got 2 contracts and 6 starting seasons out of him? Yeah, he never was that stud LT we thought may emerge, but he was good.

[craig]

My Dillon questions:

1. Will he be able to block effectively?  I know he's got the size where he'd seem like a good candidate.  But will he have the technique, the bend, the pad level, the eyes, the instinct, the brains to do it really do it well?  I think that will impact how quickly he can be trusted.  a.  With the pass-run mirror concept, if he's going to play a lot I'd sure like him to be able to block for Rodgers, to play on 3rd downs, and to pick up blitzes.  b. Second, I think his blocking will impact whether he can be effective not only in pass-protection but also in run-blocking:  end-around, jet sweep, creative stuff, they may run with Dillon on field without it being Dillon always carrying? 
2. Will he be able to play in the pass-catching game?  Media reports didn't give him value as a pass catcher; yet both Gute and MLF talked up that potential capacity.  If in time he ends up being actually a very-good-hands guy; and if he evolves into a pretty natural receiver type guy, that could be really useful, even if predominantly uncomplicated routes and stuff, that could change a lot.
3. This is me being dumb, but I'm not sure I understand the full distinctions between H-back, fullback, and running back?  I suspect there will be statistics suggesting that two-back sets are unproductive, and that having BOTH Jones and Dillon will be dumb.  But it would seem possible that doing so might perhaps provide some confusion?  Will either get the ball, and if so which?  Can Dillon be a fast and powerful blocker in front of Jones?  If you start with both, will one swing out wide for a screen pass or something?  I guess I'm not sure.  But I'm wondering whether Dillon might, hypothetically, evolve into a guy who can do most of the things a fullback might do, only faster and better, and do more things besides (like actually carry the ball effectively)?  And I'm wondering whether Dillon might hypothetically evolve into a guy who might be able to do many of the things an H-back would do; probably not with the pass-catching skill, but perhaps diversifying things in creative ways?
4. How soon?  Maybe someday he can block, and somedays he can be variably functional catching some passes... but how long will that take?  Three or four years to learn?  Or faster? 
5. MLF boring, or MLF creative?  MLF is supposed to have this defense-stressing run-pass uncertainty.  But I'm not sure the offense really was all that creative last year?  I recall after Chargers game, Chargers defense saying they pretty much knew what we'd be running.  So will MLF actually have creative, surprising, effective plays, perhaps involving Dillon in creative and unexpected packages?  Or will it be pretty boring stuff, Dillon's in, look for the boring up-the-middle stuff, kind of like with Jamal?  
6. Being a hypothetical short-yardage monster is fun in theory.  But, will it actually work? When the defense is stacked for short yardage runs, and 300-lb linemen and 270 pound OLB and 240-pound ILB are flying into the line and stacking our linemen up or pressing them backwards, is 240-pound Dillon really going to be able to consistently drive any piles for consistent gain?  It sounds good in theory, but I wonder whether a guy who has no wiggle and runs kinda high, whether running behind our line, will he get stacked up on predictable running downs pretty much as often as the next guy?  
7. No wiggle, no stop-and-go, no fakes?  Strong and good combine measurables; but how will he do without wiggle, without stop-and-go?  A lot of Jones gains, he clearly isn't running where the play was designed to create a hole.  The o-lines and d-lines engage, and Jones just figures out where that battle has left a seam and bops over to that hole.  But will Dillon be able to do that, and adjust to the real shape of the line as the battle engages?  
8. Outside run?  Yes, his 40-time is good.... for a man his size.  But when linebackers and safeties are running to cover the edge, they don't slow down because you're big; they just want to get there before you reach the corner.  Will Dillon have the speed to be able to get to and around the edge?  And will he have the stutter steps or wiggle to freeze defenders or to cut inside through them?  If he's just a between-the-tackles guy, that makes life loads easier for a defense.  

[MacReady]

I just feel like LaFleur is confident in his ability to get the best out of running backs.

Just look at the running backs and their production with and without LaFleur.  It's crazy. 

I know he was only the QB coach in Washington, but every single team he has been on the staff he has had a running back have their best season of their career.

Redskins:
Roy Helu had 49 receptions in his rookie year, injured second year, 31 in his third year. 
Alfred Morris had 2,888 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns in two years with LaFleur.

Falcons:
Tevin Coleman had 31 receptions for 421 yards in 13 games.  8 rushing touchdowns.  His career high in receptions was 32 in 16 games without LaFleur, but for 5 full yards less per catch.
Devonta Freeman had 73 receptions and 54 receptions.  His only two 1,000 yard rushing seasons came with LaFleur on staff.  His only 2 double digit TD seasons came with LaFleur. 

Rams:
Gurley had a career high in rushing yards.  Had 64 receptions and 6 receiving touchdowns 12.3 yards per reception. 

Titans:
Henry broke out as a star with LaFleur on his staff.

Packers:
Aaron Jones had more receptions than any running back in Aaron Rodgers' entire career last year.  That includes Ty Montgomery who was a converted WR playing RB.  Lol. 

Just think about that for a second... Matt LaFleur got AARON RODGERS to THROW TO THE RUNNING BACK. 

Before this pat year, Ty Montgomery had the record for most receptions by a running back in Aaron's entire time here.  And Montgomery wasn't even officially a running back until AFTER he had 20 receptions. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2009&year_max=2019&season_start=1&season_end=-1&team_id=gnb&pos[]=rb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2020&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos[]=qb&draft_pos[]=rb&draft_pos[]=wr&draft_pos[]=te&draft_pos[]=e&draft_pos[]=t&draft_pos[]=g&draft_pos[]=c&draft_pos[]=ol&draft_pos[]=dt&draft_pos[]=de&draft_pos[]=dl&draft_pos[]=ilb&draft_pos[]=olb&draft_pos[]=lb&draft_pos[]=cb&draft_pos[]=s&draft_pos[]=db&draft_pos[]=k&draft_pos[]=p&c5val=1.0&order_by=rec

So if you look at purely running backs,

Aaron Jones 2019 (49)
Brandon Jackson 2010 (43)
James Starks 2015 (43 in the year we literally didn't have receivers)
Eddie Lacy 2014 (42)
Jamaal Williams 2019 (39)

Two of the top 5 receptions for running backs in Aaron's time as a starter came last year under Matt LaFleur. 

So to answer the question as to whether or not Dillon can do anything in the passing game?  Rest assured that LaFleur, who has a very long history of getting the best receiving seasons out of his running backs, would not have selected Dillon if he wasn't confident in his ability as a pass catcher. 

 

 

[vegas492]

I don't feel like you need to over think Dillon.  He's a north/south runner.  You give him the ball, he runs it between the tackles.  You fake him the ball, he goes into the line and hits someone.

On obvious passing downs, it should be Jones in there, or split out wide with Williams as the protector.

Dillon should be the back that wears down the defense so that they are a touch slow when Jones gets the ball.

[Uffdaswede]

50 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I don't feel like you need to over think Dillon.  He's a north/south runner.  You give him the ball, he runs it between the tackles.  You fake him the ball, he goes into the line and hits someone.

On obvious passing downs, it should be Jones in there, or split out wide with Williams as the protector.

Dillon should be the back that wears down the defense so that they are a touch slow when Jones gets the ball.

I've thought this too. Dillon and Jones will be co-weapons in the running game. At times it would be fun to see two back sets with either of them capable of being receivers.

[cannondale]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I don't feel like you need to over think Dillon.  He's a north/south runner.  You give him the ball, he runs it between the tackles.  You fake him the ball, he goes into the line and hits someone.

On a team where the outside zone is the bread and butter

[incognito_man]

4 minutes ago, cannondale said:

On a team where the outside zone is the bread and butter

Do you think DIllon cannot be an effective outside zone runner?

[cannondale]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

Do you think DIllon cannot be an effective outside zone runner?

Do I think his strength is one cut, foot in the ground and go runner ? No. Do I think it's smart to send him east-west to start his runs ?? No.

[vegas492]

4 hours ago, Uffdaswede said:

I've thought this too. Dillon and Jones will be co-weapons in the running game. At times it would be fun to see two back sets with either of them capable of being receivers.

I really like the Thunder and Lightning approach.  Jones will only be more effective if Dillon wears the D down just a little bit.  And he should be healthier.

I watched a great highlight clip of the 2019 squad.  Came away thinking that MVS needs more targets and that GB should bite the bullet and pay Jones.  He was just so impressive in both the running and passing game.  Jones is a gamebreaker.  

[{Family Ghost}]

2 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I really like the Thunder and Lightning approach.  Jones will only be more effective if Dillon wears the D down just a little bit.  And he should be healthier.

I watched a great highlight clip of the 2019 squad.  Came away thinking that MVS needs more targets and that GB should bite the bullet and pay Jones.  He was just so impressive in both the running and passing game.  Jones is a gamebreaker.  

There was something off with MVS's practice habits .. MLF alluded to it a few times.  You also have to wonder if MVS was one of the players Rodgers alluded to that wasn't taking road trips seriously enough.  He went from having a big game against the Raiders to getting very little action the rest of the year.  Following the Raiders game the Packers hit the road to KC and then SD.  I think it was after debacle in SD that Rodgers spoke up.

[craig]

I think he'll need to be an effective outside zone runner.  And I don't think just simple "north and south" running over guys is going to work in the NFL.  Box Linemen are too big and strong to run through them and over them consistently; you run between them, not over them.  Any power back is finding weak seams and blasting through.  Dillon will need to be able to do that.  

The thunder-and-lightning, wear-them-down concept is good in theory... but only if it works.  No defenses get worn down on 1-2-3-punt series.  If you're predictably pounding Dillon up the middle on 1st and 10; then on 2nd and 8; and then on 3rd and 6 Rodgers under duress makes an inaccurate throw, that approach is NOT going to wear anybody down.  

If Dillon is mixing it up and gashing for 6, 1st down throw to Jace for 8; Dillon for 5, end-around for 7; completion to Adams for 8, Dillon plows up the middle for 4, etc.; that kind of sequencing first downs process can wear on a defense, and Dillon may contribute well.  But the key to wearing down any defense is getting first downs and scoring touchdowns.  If anything, defending up the middle runs is less physically tiring than pass rush, or than chasing outside runs or end-arounds and screens and stuff.  

I'm not ripping Dillon, I hope he's excellent.  Just saying that big and physical doesn't necessarily make for good yardage.  You need to be able to make some moves, and you need to be able to recognize seams, and have enough quickness to get to them before they seal up.  I'm certainly hoping that Dillon will be able to drive through some arm tackles and drive forward after initial contact.  

[Shanedorf]

via SI,

Brian White, his running backs coach at Boston College:

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/aj-dillon-insane

“He’ll be outstanding in the passing game,” he said. “There’s only so many times you can get him the ball, so we preferred to hand it to him and toss it to him. He caught the ball very effectively for us. What’s going to surprise people is, for a big guy, he might be as good a route-runner as there will be on the team. He can run routes because he’s got great lower-body balance and he can stick his foot in the ground and change direction really quickly. He’ll impress people in that regard. I know the Packers had 88 catches between the backs last year. He’ll be ready to do that.”

[craig]

Thanks, Shane, that's really encouraging.  The good route-runner view, and the great lower-body balance and change direction really quickly part, too.  The latter capacity is relevant for run as well as pass.  

Also the explanation of why they didn't use him in pass more:  because they were already giving him the ball a million times.  Sometimes a team doesn't use a guy in some way because they've found he's not actually very good at it.  This argues against that being a concern. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by craig

[St Vince]

16 hours ago, vegas492 said:

I really like the Thunder and Lightning approach.  Jones will only be more effective if Dillon wears the D down just a little bit.  And he should be healthier.

I watched a great highlight clip of the 2019 squad.  Came away thinking that MVS needs more targets and that GB should bite the bullet and pay Jones.  He was just so impressive in both the running and passing game.  Jones is a gamebreaker.  

But in this case the thunder is faster than the lightning lol.