The QB Thread: Everything Carr, Stidham and beyond...

[Turnobili]

Carr in a nutshell: good arm talent, great ball placement. doesn't use those attributes nearly enough

The talent:

 

The reluctance to make good use of it:

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Turnobili

[MrOaktown_56]

^^^ You bring up a good point. Some of it is lack of trust and some of it is play design. If both Carr and Gruden can take a step forward and open up the offense/be more aggressive, good things will happen.

[Turnobili]

37 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

^^^ You bring up a good point. Some of it is lack of trust and some of it is play design. If both Carr and Gruden can take a step forward and open up the offense/be more aggressive, good things will happen.

what's really weird is that his last 2 seasons (which feel like the most conservative versions of Carr since his rookie year) have been the best years of his career as far as yards per attempt. doesnt seem to match the eye test, where he was seemingly much more consistently aggressive in 2015 and 2016. i think it does come down to context, in that what we've seen from him in recent years is that he doesnt ramp up the aggressiveness in the critical moments, like 3rd and long, or when we are down 2 scores in the 2nd half, whereas in 2016 he was a 4th quarter monster. the 4th down throwaways are sorta that in spades

im not in the "we definitely need to dump Carr" wagon or "Carr is THE GUY you're all just haters" wagon. i really think that's a false dichotomy. i have adopted the PFF view of QB's, when there are basically 3 tiers of QBs, with the elite ones who can get your team wins they otherwise had no business winning, the average QBs who can succeed when the team is built well around them, and will crumble when their support crumbles, and then theres the **** tier of guys like trubisky who outright hold offenses back. 

the expectations of Carr after 2016 would that he could join that elite tier, but it's just not in the cards for him. i think its naive to put him in the lower tier, too.

i've been against moving Carr these past couple of offseasons because i think any plan to ditch Carr has to go hand in hand with a legitimate long term replacement strategy. im not dumping him just to dump him. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Turnobili

[agarcia34]

Carr has only thrown for 30 TD's once in his career(2015) was very much on his way in 2016 before the injury. With that being said what is the amount passing TD's that you would need to see from Carr for this offense to be successful? 

I would say it needs to be around 28-34 TD's

[Totty]

8 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Carr has only thrown for 30 TD's once in his career(2015) was very much on his way in 2016 before the injury. With that being said what is the amount passing TD's that you would need to see from Carr for this offense to be successful? 

I would say it needs to be around 28-34 TD's

Meh.  IDC about the number as long as we're a productive team offense.  Hell, if Jacobs scored 40 TD, Carr throws for 12 touchdowns but we go 13-3, will that be upsetting? I think not.  

Edited May 7, 2020 by Totty

[agarcia34]

Well let's be realistic Jacobs ain't getting 40 TDs and nobody will be mad if he did, but the truth is Carr needs to put the ball in the end zone. All that stuff from the 20 to 20 means nothing if you cant finish. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by agarcia34

[Totty]

48 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Well let's be realistic Jacobs ain't getting 40 TDs and nobody will be mad if he did, but the truth is Carr needs to put the ball in the end zone. All that stuff from the 20 to 20 means nothing if you cant finish. 

Oh I absolutely agree.  I'm just saying IDK how it's going to all pan out numbers wise, but I don't really care as long as we're productive as an offense.  

[MrOaktown_56]

19 minutes ago, Totty said:

Oh I absolutely agree.  I'm just saying IDK how it's going to all pan out numbers wise, but I don't really care as long as we're productive as an offense.  

I want to see a top 10 offense this year. I want to see us push for or exceed 30 points a game. I'm not saying it'll happen, but there are no excuses for this offense as a whole (and Gruden for that matter) to not orchestrate a diverse devastating ground/pass game.

[Turnobili]

its hard to declare a specific amount of passing touchdowns that you're looking for, because there is game to game context, more or less rushing/special teams/defensive touchdowns, the pace of the games (how many possessions each team has), etc. with that said, i think we can all agree that we haven't been pleased with our scoring output in the last 3 seasons, where he has thrown anywhere between 19 and 23 touchdowns. 

if you look at similarly talented players like Matt Ryan (minus his one bonkers MVP caliber season), Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers... you are usually seeing touchdown totals in the 26-32 range as a consistent benchmark. not coincidentally, in the 2 years that we loved Carr, he threw for 28 and 32 TDs. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Turnobili

[raidr4life]

51 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

its hard to declare a specific amount of passing touchdowns that you're looking for, because there is game to game context, more or less rushing/special teams/defensive touchdowns, the pace of the games (how many possessions each team has), etc. with that said, i think we can all agree that we haven't been pleased with our scoring output in the last 3 seasons, where he has thrown anywhere between 19 and 23 touchdowns. 

if you look at similarly talented players like Matt Ryan (minus his one bonkers MVP caliber season), Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers... you are usually seeing touchdown totals in the 26-32 range as a consistent benchmark. not coincidentally, in the 2 years that we loved Carr, he threw for 28 and 32 TDs. 

Exactly and part of his problem is he has been horrid in the Redzone.

[Turnobili]

33 minutes ago, raidr4life said:

Exactly and part of his problem is he has been horrid in the Redzone.

Gruden has put an emphasis on mobility, always pushing Carr to extend plays, signing Mariota, rumored interest in Hurts. If we have a bad year and go QB in the draft next year all the top guys are good athletes (Lawrence, Fields, Lance). Could see Gruden making a big move to trade up if he has to.

Last season was supposed to be Carr's prove-it year but then we lost our #1 receiver right before the season started and our #2 guy was battling foot injuries all year, so they weren't ready to move on, especially with the offseason uncertanties. With Ruggs/Edwards/Bowden picks, this is definitely Carr's make it or break it year. I hope he comes back strong so we don't have to worry about re-setting the position.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Turnobili

[Darbsk]

Well I guess Kizer isn't going to steal Carr's job then. I dont know why we even bothered with him to be frank....... 

[Bitty 2.0]

8 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Carr has only thrown for 30 TD's once in his career(2015) was very much on his way in 2016 before the injury. With that being said what is the amount passing TD's that you would need to see from Carr for this offense to be successful? 

I would say it needs to be around 28-34 TD's

In a run heavy offense?

[raidr4life]

11 hours ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

In a run heavy offense?

That has nothing to do with it, if Carr had better success in the Redzone he would have thrown 30 td's. He's been horrid.

[agarcia34]

Raiders can be run-heavy all they want from the 20 to 20 but they gonna have to throw the ball as they get closer to the goaline because teams will only stack the box more as the field shrinks. High 20's or low 30s seems about right for what we need from Carr.