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4.132 - MIN: Troy Dye LB/Oregon


RpMc

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13 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

I concur with Krauser. While anyone could be released, I believe this pick is more about an eye towards the expiration of Wilson's and Gedeon's contracts, which both expire after this year. If either of these players are released this year it will probably be Wilson who is both more expensive and has less experience as a starter (if it is fair to call the third LBer in Zimmer's defense a starter, which it probably isn't if you want to limit yourself to calling 11 guys starters). 

I love seeing them bring in potential replacements for expiring contracts a year before those contract expires. It puts the team in a much better position. If things go really well for the rookie they might be able to move on sooner, but I doubt Dye will have a chance to displace either of them this year.

They gave Wilson a 2nd-round tender, there's zero chance that he'll be cut. It's far more likely that he gets an extension than gets cut.

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1 minute ago, swede700 said:

They gave Wilson a 2nd-round tender, there's zero chance that he'll be cut. It's far more likely that he gets an extension than gets cut.

Zero chance?  Like 0.0%?

Like I said, I don't think he will get cut. I think if things go well for Dye he'll replace one of them next year. But given it a zero chance based on his tender is, umm, bold. I know the tender they gave him. I also know that getting that tender does not guarantee one a roster spot.

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3 minutes ago, swede700 said:

They gave Wilson a 2nd-round tender, there's zero chance that he'll be cut. It's far more likely that he gets an extension than gets cut.

The tender just means they didn't want him signed away. Wilson's contract isn't guaranteed, and he is overpaid for his role (12th highest cap hit on the team for LB3/LB4). Hard to believe they'd extend him and have 3 LBs on long-term deals on a team that plays nickel 65-70% of the time.

I don't really expect Wilson to get released either, but Dye profiles better to his role (nickel LB, coverage OLB) than Gedeon's. 

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20 hours ago, Krauser said:

The tender just means they didn't want him signed away. Wilson's contract isn't guaranteed, and he is overpaid for his role (12th highest cap hit on the team for LB3/LB4). Hard to believe they'd extend him and have 3 LBs on long-term deals on a team that plays nickel 65-70% of the time.

I don't really expect Wilson to get released either, but Dye profiles better to his role (nickel LB, coverage OLB) than Gedeon's. 

They didn't want him signed away this year, but  they have to be thinking that they won't be able to resign him next year meaning he will more likely than not be starting. 

My main point in cutting Gedeon was that I thought it would save a good chunk more than cutting Cam Smith and according to OTC it's only 200,000 more so that doesn't make a ton of sense. But if they value Smith more long term, it would make sense to cut Gedeon this year. I don't know that they will need more than 5 linebackers and with Barr, Kendricks, Wilson, and Dye there is really only one spot left. 

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20 hours ago, Cearbhall said:

Zero chance?  Like 0.0%?

Like I said, I don't think he will get cut. I think if things go well for Dye he'll replace one of them next year. But given it a zero chance based on his tender is, umm, bold. I know the tender they gave him. I also know that getting that tender does not guarantee one a roster spot.

I hope he signs a big enough contract elsewhere that we get a nice comp pick for him in 2022.

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I'm also fairly certain that the Vikings have never cut a guy that they tendered (at least not one that they gave a 1st or 2nd round tender to).  If they didn't find them very valuable, they wouldn't have tendered them in the first place.  So, yes...0.0% chance that he gets cut...until they show me otherwise.   

And in response to @Krauser, sure he might be overpaid for his role, but not by much, considering in 2016, Chad Greenway had a cap number of $2.75M for a similar number of snaps.  I'm sure you'll be able to make an argument about how his role was different, but he was essentially the 3rd best LB on the squad too, as is Wilson.

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3 hours ago, byuvike88 said:

But if they value Smith more long term, it would make sense to cut Gedeon this year

Gedeon started as a rookie, started his second year, and started last year when he was healthy. 

Smith didn't make the team initially as a rookie. He was promoted from the practice squad when Gedeon got hurt, waived and sent back when Gedeon returned, and finally promoted again when Gedeon suffered another injury. 

True that this is the last year of Gedeon's contract, but so far Smith is clearly behind him on the depth chart. 

13 minutes ago, swede700 said:

If they didn't find them very valuable, they wouldn't have tendered them in the first place.

Wilson's tender is just a barrier for another team signing him away. It doesn't commit the Vikings to keeping him this year. 

Wilson is a fun player but he's a liability in run defense, where Gedeon is pretty good.

The Vikings allowed 100+ rushing yards in 8 games last year, but Gedeon played as the early down OLB in only one of them -- and that was the Chiefs game where they stayed in nickel all day (Gedeon and Wilson combined for 4 snaps in KC). 

With Wilson playing on early downs, the Vikings gave up 100+ rushing yard totals to the Seahawks, Niners (playoff), Packers (twice), Bears (week 17, so the backup DL), Broncos and Eagles. Gedeon played little (hurt early in the Denver game) or not at all in those games.

I don't know that Dye will be an upgrade, but $3M with zero dead cap is not a contract you want to pay your base LB4 / nickel LB3. So I won't be surprised if Wilson gets cut. 

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