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TL-TwoWinsAway

Round 5, Pick 166: Quintez Cephus

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I'm not ready to pound the table for the kid but I just watched a 3 and a half minute highlight and he had 4 or 5 impressive plays.

Excellent feel and adjustment for back shoulder throws which Stafford is one of the best at.

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9 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Alright. Additional thoughts on this guy.

I had a chance to watch a video titled Ultimate Quintez Cephus Highlights, expecting to see what I see when I watch other highlight reels: incredible plays. Over this 7:59, I saw maybe two or three that were impressive, and was otherwise underwhelmed.

He's not overly strong and doesn't become the "physical running back" with the ball in his hands that other scouting reports led me to believe. That being said, he isn't afraid of contact, and will fight for an extra few yards... just seemed to rarely win those fights at the college level, calling into question how successful he'll be at that in the NFL. Definitely not fast, with only moderate quickness. Good awareness when going over the middle and braces for contact well. Great at tracking and plucking the ball. Appears to be a decent route-runner.

It's only 8 minutes of footage, and I'm definitely not a scout, so don't take my word for it, but I just don't see him as an outside guy in the NFL. I could see a slot CIT guy that can get off the line and make contested catches, and who occasionally cuts outside for a off-script deep shot, but he'll have to lock down a specific role to stick around in the NFL.

(And, after reading this over, I thought to myself: slot replacement for Amendola?)

You have to remember where he played, Wisconsin’s isn’t known for showcasing WRs. All you need to know is he is physical, is a good route runner with an ability to create space, and has probably the strongest hands in the draft. He definitely isn’t flashy though, if that’s what you were looking for. His best games this past year were Central Mich, Mich St, Minnesota, and the B1G Championship game (could add in the Rose Bowl and Iowa as well)

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8 hours ago, badgers0821 said:

You have to remember where he played, Wisconsin’s isn’t known for showcasing WRs. All you need to know is he is physical, is a good route runner with an ability to create space, and has probably the strongest hands in the draft. He definitely isn’t flashy though, if that’s what you were looking for. His best games this past year were Central Mich, Mich St, Minnesota, and the B1G Championship game (could add in the Rose Bowl and Iowa as well)

Good info. It sort of sounds like you agree that he'll likely play the slot in the NFL.

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2 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Good info. It sort of sounds like you agree that he'll likely play the slot in the NFL.

That sounds a lot more like a possession WR that would play outside and win on those jump ball opportunities. Marvin definitely has more speed but that's more of his game. 

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The more I read and watch, the less I like the pick.  I wanted a WR, I just am not sure his skills along with the off field stuff make it worth it.  I feel there were more talented WRs available, even earlier instead of Huntley, that could help this team more now and in the future.  My guess is Cephus ends up like TJ Jones. On the roster for a few years but never really does anything.  Being physical is a good sign for special teams play at least. 

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9 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

That sounds a lot more like a possession WR that would play outside and win on those jump ball opportunities. Marvin definitely has more speed but that's more of his game. 

Perhaps. I just don't see him separating at all in the NFL, and he seems to lack the size and athletic ability to win those jump balls against NFL-caliber defenders. I feel like he'd be a much better slot/over the middle guy... I just don't think he threatens deep in the NFL.

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10 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Perhaps. I just don't see him separating at all in the NFL, and he seems to lack the size and athletic ability to win those jump balls against NFL-caliber defenders. I feel like he'd be a much better slot/over the middle guy... I just don't think he threatens deep in the NFL.

KG ran a 4.50. Cephus has a near elite level Explosion score of 185.72 (top 10%) with a 38.5 inch vert. His 3 cone/SS times aren't great, so you're not looking at him as a guy that's going to be overly shifty. His best game is throwing the ball up in the air one-on-one and letting him win in that jump ball situation. Maybe you can play him in the slot but I don't think he fits there exclusively. He's a pretty strong guy too, given his 23 reps on the bench. 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

KG ran a 4.50. Cephus has a near elite level Explosion score of 185.72 (top 10%) with a 38.5 inch vert. His 3 cone/SS times aren't great, so you're not looking at him as a guy that's going to be overly shifty. His best game is throwing the ball up in the air one-on-one and letting him win in that jump ball situation. Maybe you can play him in the slot but I don't think he fits there exclusively. He's a pretty strong guy too, given his 23 reps on the bench. 

For the record: I wasn't putting any stock into his 40 yard dash, as I believe that it's extremely overrated. I just don't see a skillset that succeeds outside in the NFL. Maybe I'm basing too much off of his "highlight film", which I felt was underwhelming, but he's not a guy that created for himself, nor did he do much after the catch. He's good at going up and getting the ball, but there's not much aside from that. I feel that there are players every year that do that and more, and that fail to make an impact. Okudah must've seen something, though...

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway

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31 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

For the record: I wasn't putting any stock into his 40 yard dash, as I believe that it's extremely overrated. I just don't see a skillset that succeeds outside in the NFL. Maybe I'm basing too much off of his "highlight film", which I felt was underwhelming, but he's not a guy that created for himself, nor did he do much after the catch. He's good at going up and getting the ball, but there's not much aside from that. I feel that there are players every year that do that and more, and that fail to make an impact. Okudah must've seen something, though...

I haven't had a chance yet but I would like to take a look at the Wisconsin/OSU film to get a better idea of what Okudah is talking about. 

From what I've heard from other pundits, he's a high floor guy (as opposed to a high traits/high upside guy). 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Perhaps. I just don't see him separating at all in the NFL, and he seems to lack the size and athletic ability to win those jump balls against NFL-caliber defenders. I feel like he'd be a much better slot/over the middle guy... I just don't think he threatens deep in the NFL.

Watch the B1G Championship game. He went up against two 1st round CBS the entire game and dominated. If you think he can’t win on those jump balls over NFL calibur CBs watch the very end of the first half of that game. His ability to go get the ball, no matter where it’s thrown and adjust, is elite. He has multiple catches over his career where he just rose up and plucked the ball out of the air over defenders. Again, he’s not going to be that guy who dazzled you with speed or the ability to avoid multiple tackles, that’s just not his game. My guess is he ends up as a top 10 WR  from this class as long as Detroit understands his game and doesn’t ask him to do things beyond his natural abilities.

Edited by badgers0821

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43 minutes ago, badgers0821 said:

Watch the B1G Championship game. He went up against two 1st round CBS the entire game and dominated. If you think he can’t win on those jump balls over NFL calibur CBs watch the very end of the first half of that game. His ability to go get the ball, no matter where it’s thrown and adjust, is elite. He has multiple catches over his career where he just rose up and plucked the ball out of the air over defenders. Again, he’s not going to be that guy who dazzled you with speed or the ability to avoid multiple tackles, that’s just not his game. My guess is he ends up as a top 10 WR  from this class as long as Detroit understands his game and doesn’t ask him to do things beyond his natural abilities.

Interesting. I guess I'm reluctant to believe that a guy with such a limited skillset can thrive in the NFL, but your description sounds quite a bit like late-career Marvin Jones. Stafford seems to like those guys.

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8 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Interesting. I guess I'm reluctant to believe that a guy with such a limited skillset can thrive in the NFL, but your description sounds quite a bit like late-career Marvin Jones. Stafford seems to like those guys.

I’m giving Quinn the benefit of the doubt on this one. Golladay made me raise my eyebrows and that worked out. 

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20 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Interesting. I guess I'm reluctant to believe that a guy with such a limited skillset can thrive in the NFL, but your description sounds quite a bit like late-career Marvin Jones. Stafford seems to like those guys.

That's exactly how I see Cephus playing. I haven't done anything extensive on him by any means but in the few clips I've watched, that's exactly what he looks like to me - Marvin Jones. 

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

That's exactly how I see Cephus playing. I haven't done anything extensive on him by any means but in the few clips I've watched, that's exactly what he looks like to me - Marvin Jones. 

Which is a pretty good thing, although I don't think many were high on him after the 2018 season. If he's able to contribute in that role in 2021 or 2022, that's a pretty good pick.

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Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Which is a pretty good thing, although I don't think many were high on him after the 2018 season. If he's able to contribute in that role in 2021 or 2022, that's a pretty good pick.

That’s because he didn’t play in 2018...

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