5.176 - MIN: KJ Osborn WR/Miami

[SteelKing728]

On 4/26/2020 at 12:20 AM, Krauser said:

Yeah I don’t see much on those limited highlights that looks like an NFL receiver. But maybe they want to keep an extra WR to be a returner, like Sherels was as a 6th CB.

It was underdiscussed at the time last year, but Beebe and Hughes were terrible as punt returners — poor ball security and no big returns. And then of course Sherels muffed 2 punts in the playoffs, including the final nail in the coffin vs SF.

Hughes is the only guy guaranteed to make the team right now with PR experience, and he’s going to be their CB1 (gulp), so they probably don’t want him back there taking hits.

I don’t like using a 5th round pick on a special teams player, but it’s no worse than Vedvik or Cutting or Locke or all the other times Spielman has used a late round pick to secure the guy his special teams coach wanted. There was a run on players with return ability in the 4th and 5th so maybe they wanted to make sure they got their guy.

Spielman values WR and returners highly (I'm still not sure why people argue this?) so drafting him makes sense.

Didn't we try this same approach with Rodney Adams back in 2017?

Edited April 28, 2020 by SteelKing728
My initial argument was Spielman overvalues WR. My position hasn't changed at all.

[RpMc]

This is my favorite part about the draft season... digging in to the "perceived" reaches and finding things that you really like about them.

[JDBrocks]

2 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

Spielman values WR and returners highly (I'm still not sure why people argue this?) so drafting him makes sense.

Didn't we try this same approach with Rodney Adams back in 2017?

People are still arguing it because it is a false narrative.

[battle2heaven]

2 minutes ago, RpMc said:

This is my favorite part about the draft season... digging in to the "perceived" reaches and finding things that you really like about them.

I will 100% be doing this. Good news, we have like 68 draft picks so I have plenty of things to do besides actual work.

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, battle2heaven said:

I like Duvernay as well but he went earlier than I would have wanted to snag another receiver; towards the end of the 3rd round.

Yeah I meant before the draft.

I expected them to go CB/WR in whatever order but if a tackle had fallen, or maybe Kinlaw, plan B for receiver for me was either Pittman in the 2nd (hoping he fell to 58 or close enough that they could move up a couple of spots) or Van Jefferson in the 3rd, supplemented with a deep threat on day 3 like Duverney (who was projected to still be available in the 4th or later).

Elite speed is one of the Chiefs trump cards so I can see why the Ravens wanted Duvernay enough to take him in the 3rd.

Once they had Justin Jefferson, I didn’t think they’d take another receiver before the last couple of rounds, for depth. Osborn was a readhnbased on the consensus board but evidently they valued his return abilities (which should basically guarantee him a roster spot: Beebe and Hughes were bad last year, and Hughes is going to be playing every down at CB so they probably want to protect him). 

[SteelKing728]

20 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

People are still arguing it because it is a false narrative.

In relation to other teams, I think he does. 

Chances are we'll be spending another high pick on WR in a few years to replace Thielen too.

[Krauser]

17 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

Spielman values WR and returners highly (I'm still not sure why people argue this?) so drafting him makes sense.

Didn't we try this same approach with Rodney Adams back in 2017?

WRs actually are important, so I’m glad he’s willing to invest in the position, even some of the picks have been bad (Treadwell). They’ll take a WR in the top 2 rounds again when it’s time to replace Thielen. 

Spielman does value return ability highly. Harvin, Patterson and Hughes were all seemingly taken in part because of their contributions as kickoff returners, and the first 2 of them actually added a lot to the team because of it. As you say, Rodney Adams was another late round WR that the consensus was low on but he supposedly had that return ability (though we never saw him do much with it in the NFL).

Spielman has also willing to use late round picks on other special teams players: 3 kickers (including the Vedvik trade), a punter and a long snapper since 2012. That’s generally bad draft management but they’ve done OK with the picks (Walsh was good before his confidence broke, Locke was decent and Cutting is good).

Kickoff returners aren’t worth much in the latest version of the NFL rules, and punt returner was a weakness of last year’s team, so this year they invested in a WR/PR. 

[battle2heaven]

4 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

In relation to other teams, I think he does. 

Chances are we'll be spending another high pick on WR in a few years to replace Thielen too.

So I don't think he overvalues the WR position because based on analytics, outside of the QB role, the WR position is the 2nd most important position on an offense. 

We got lucky hitting on a UDFA in Thielen and a 5th rounder in Diggs. Harvin was very good, Cpatt never developed because he was more of a rb in a WRs body and couldn't really pick up the nuances of route running, and Treadwell was just never the same after the broken ankle.

Jefferson is a lot different than the other 1st round WRs Rick has drafted; way more polish combined with elite athleticism (according to RAS scores).

That said, this is a KJ Osborn thread and let's put some respect to his name and I'll keep the talk about him. Does Osborn have the chance to turn into another 5th round gem like Diggs? Maybe, but probably not. Will he be better and provide more contribution than say, a Rodney Adams? I am certain of this for one reason: football passion. Adams didn't have it, Osborn has it in spades. 

[Krauser]

1 minute ago, battle2heaven said:

Will he be better and provide more contribution than say, a Rodney Adams? I am certain of this for one reason: football passion. Adams didn't have it, Osborn has it in spades. 

Good point. Depth players and special teamers succeed in part because of attitude and effort. Osborn is one of several high character, high effort guys they took on day 3 who should be able to do well in that kind of role.

[battle2heaven]

4 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Good point. Depth players and special teamers succeed in part because of attitude and effort. Osborn is one of several high character, high effort guys they took on day 3 who should be able to do well in that kind of role.

Going to post this article:

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/acc/university-of-miami/article241954666.html

Quote

K.J. Osborn was the graduate transfer who did everything right from the day he arrived at the University of Miami.

Tireless worker? Check. Mature role model and leader? Check. Leading receiver? Check. Leading all-purpose player? Check.

On Saturday, Osborn achieved what was previously unattainable when he was selected by the Minnesota Vikings as the 31st pick in the fifth round — 176th overall — in the NFL Draft.

Quote

At Miami, Osborn started every game last season and led the Hurricanes in receptions (50), receiving yards (547), punt returns (16), punt-return yardage (225) and all-purpose yards (1,018). He likely would have had more receiving yardage and touchdowns had the Hurricanes’ quarterback position not disintegrated the last half of the season.

And at the NFL Scouting Combine in late February, the solidly built 5-11 1/2, 203-pound Osborn turned heads with a 4.48 40-yard dash and 18 bench-press reps, among several other notable stats. His 18 reps were sixth most among the 33 wideouts who chose to lift. Comparing 40 times, for example, wiry, explosive Jeff Thomas ran a 4.45, which was also run by Alabama star (and Deerfield Beach High alum) Jerry Jeudy.

Quote

“Across the board, Osborn had a stellar evening with a 4.48 in the 40, a 37.5-inch vertical, 123-inch broad [jump] and a 7.00 time in the three-cone drill,’’ said CBSSports.com draft analyst Chris Trapasso. “He can now be considered one of the best all-around athletes at the receiver position in this class.’’

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by battle2heaven

[RpMc]

Sounds like a bright kid, he's on the radio with PA right now.

[RpMc]

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by RpMc

[battle2heaven]

3 minutes ago, RpMc said:

 

I'm going to root hard for him because was my most questionable pick with my initial, real time reactions. I want him to prove me wrong!

[Krauser]

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-hurricanes/fl-sp-um-manny-diaz-20200430-enbapdffjbbq5bd25lmswixmwe-story.html 

Quote

It’s a lesson UM coach Manny Diaz wants to push forward as a new group of leaders look to improve on last year’s 6-7 record — and also improve their own future draft stock.

“Everybody saw that, really, our top culture guys were the ones that were picked first,” Diaz said on the Hochman and Crowder Show on 560-AM and 790-AM on Thursday afternoon. “You look at a guy like K.J. Osborn. Came in and established himself from Day 1 as one of the hardest working guys in our program and really changed his status from a guy at Buffalo who might’ve been on the free agent-seventh-round fence to become a guy picked in the fifth by Minnesota. And Minnesota had him with a third, fourth-round grade.”

Osborn’s character and work ethic, in addition to his ability, catapulted him to where he was drafted, whereas Miami’s other receiving draft prospect, Jeff Thomas, went undrafted.

The Vikings obviously must have have valued Osborn at least in the late 5th round where they took him, but I wouldn’t have expected him to be graded that high.

 

[RpMc]

37 minutes ago, Krauser said:

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-hurricanes/fl-sp-um-manny-diaz-20200430-enbapdffjbbq5bd25lmswixmwe-story.html 

The Vikings obviously must have have valued Osborn at least in the late 5th round where they took him, but I wouldn’t have expected him to be graded that high.

 

Just goes to show how widely varied team grades can be, and how much the differ from the draft prognosticators. 

as fun as the consensus board project is, it can depict a false sense of value. 

here’s hoping that Osborn lives up to their grade!