Draft Grades

[MrOaktown_56]

If Arnette ran in the 4.4s, he would have been getting legit first round buzz. I'm super hesitant to call any CB in this class outside of Okudah a sure thing. Some of the best CBs in recent years have been the 3rd/4th off the board. Let's watch him play with a healthy wrist and some coaching before we pass a ton of judgment on him. (I'm saying in general, not directed to any of you).

[Turnobili]

its not even about them being sure things, its about getting the right value. if we drafted maxx crosby #4 overall last year, that would have been a mistake too. part of drafting is recognizing where the market is on players so you can maximize your value. sure, its absurd to always aim to trade back to EXACTLY one slot before the guy is going to get taken, but nobody is asking for that level of precision. it is incredibly unlikely that arnette was going to be taken within the next dozen picks. trading back that many spots would net us an additional 3rd

and we know how valuable 3rd round picks can be (except tanner muse)

Edited April 29, 2020 by Turnobili

[MrOaktown_56]

38 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

its not even about them being sure things, its about getting the right value. if we drafted maxx crosby #4 overall last year, that would have been a mistake too. part of drafting is recognizing where the market is on players so you can maximize your value. sure, its absurd to always aim to trade back to EXACTLY one slot before the guy is going to get taken, but nobody is asking for that level of precision. it is incredibly unlikely that arnette was going to be taken within the next dozen picks. trading back that many spots would net us an additional 3rd

and we know how valuable 3rd round picks can be (except tanner muse)

Sure in a vacuum I don't disagree. But that can be finicky sometimes and you can pay the price. If picks hit, often that is more than enough. If Arnette becomes a good starting corner, "value" goes out the window. 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

If Arnette ran in the 4.4s, he would have been getting legit first round buzz. I'm super hesitant to call any CB in this class outside of Okudah a sure thing. Some of the best CBs in recent years have been the 3rd/4th off the board. Let's watch him play with a healthy wrist and some coaching before we pass a ton of judgment on him. (I'm saying in general, not directed to any of you).

Arnette was clearly hurt at the combine too. 

[jimkelly02]

45 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Arnette was clearly hurt at the combine too. 

That’s the version of the truth....

1.I’ve been selling hard around here.... 

2.  I prefer , it makes the pain less severe.

Furthermore, Arnette was probably going to run a 4.49-4.51 at worst if it had not been for That injury 

Seriouly though, nfldraftscout.com (a highly credible source for pre-combine 40 speed’s - they are at spring practices, etc) had Arnette at 4.35 from my memory (same as Sheffield who declared last year) during his junior year.  

Edited April 29, 2020 by jimkelly02

[true2form]

46 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Sure in a vacuum I don't disagree. But that can be finicky sometimes and you can pay the price. If picks hit, often that is more than enough. If Arnette becomes a good starting corner, "value" goes out the window. 

Yeah I agree. This sort of circular reasoning is short sighted. We don't know when Arnette would've been picked if we hadn't taken him at 19. The so called experts put him in the 2nd or 3rd and had Fulton in the first. In reality they flipped. So the experts can't be right about both. Value is subjective to a consensus of those that really don't know any more than guys on this board. 

Only Arnette can prove that he is worthy of the pick and only grading that matters will happen 4 years from now.

[drfrey13]

40 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Sure in a vacuum I don't disagree. But that can be finicky sometimes and you can pay the price. If picks hit, often that is more than enough. If Arnette becomes a good starting corner, "value" goes out the window. 

We know certain teams were looking to trade up, GB to get Love, and would have netted us a 3rd or maybe even a 2nd moving back to the late 1st/early 2nd so why not for a player that would most likely still be there.  I like Arnette but I would be lying if I said I would take him over Jonson, Diggs, or Fulton plus a high pick this year or next.  You always take value into consideration whether a pick hits or not.  Get the odds on your side and you should be right more often than your competition.  I believe Gruden and Mayock thought they were getting value although I do not agree.  I read an article that said Gruden thought Arnette was a better DB than Okudah.  I do not know how much truth there is to that but if that was the case then I seriously question Gruden's evaluation skills for defensive players.

[jimkelly02]

1 minute ago, true2form said:

Yeah I agree. This sort of circular reasoning is short sighted. We don't know when Arnette would've been picked if we hadn't taken him at 19. The so called experts put him in the 2nd or 3rd and had Fulton in the first. In reality they flipped. So the experts can't be right about both. Value is subjective to a consensus of those that really don't know any more than guys on this board. 

Only Arnette can prove that he is worthy of the pick and only grading that matters will happen 4 years from now.

I was absolutely livid we didn’t trade down from 19 for Arnette...we could have gone down to 24-29 and had near zero risk he wasn’t there still... I feel it cost us the opportunity to Trade up from 80 into the mid 2nd round OR trade up from 80 + 81 into late round 2 and early round 3, where There were some incredible values.  

Nonetheless, now that we have good reason to believe Arnette has better than 4.56 speed (as he ran injured or injured himself running... well documented so  won’t rehash it) the real question is: 

Would you be more happy picking a different CB, and if so who?

I personally wouldn’t want any other CB on the board by a SIZEABLE margin.  
 

Ive said this before, I think the inaccurate 40 time (relative to his real speed) combined with 30” arms really took him out of consideration for the Raiders in my own mind during pre-draft talks. There’s this golden rule requiring sub 4.5 speed and over 32” arms.  
 

But there were other factors too that contributed to everyone miss evaluating him:

1) Group Think: when we see every mock draft on the web and every player evaluation/projection list him as a 2nd rounder we’re greedy people prefer the other players who are being mocked or projected to be dragged prior to 19 to fall to us, or at least select players who were projected above 19 in the past few months or are “rising/hot” prospects in the media/internet sites/ forum discussions.  Even players like Jaylon Johnson, who really never had top 25 talent had a few members who watched some Youtube videos (which he was out of frame for large chunks of most routes) and over inflated his value.  Now others follow suit and would be happy to “settle for Johnson at 25.... since he’s rising”.  It’s not a perceived reach when it’s a rising prospect.  This greed to get the best value combined with “group think” really messed up evaluations of Arnette.  We also like I said before didn’t have the insider info to know 4.56 was his true speed.  In hindsight though with some amateur investigation we could have realized that.... he stopped his work out after the 40.  He was always said to be 4.35ish speed and then ran 4.56 and even his run looked like something was off.  Not to mention a bunch of articles about his speed, like Spring ‘18 article which discussed OSU players mph speeds.  On both of Arnette’s 4.57 runs he booked very tight coming out of the blocks and ran a poor 10yd split. It seems like he most likely had a tweek’d quad or calf.

Other Issues Arnette faced during OUR and the internet’s draft Analysis of Him:

He also suffered from over-saturation as a prospect because he was playing starting minutes at an elite school (know as DB University) for 3 years worth.  He has been a first round prospect Since sophomore year but had a poor junior year and strong rebounded as a senior.  He had the nations top CB next to him and has a young, elite CB prospect for future drafts (rSoph Shaun Wade).  He isn’t a “sexy” player with flash.  
 

I’d be willing to bet heavily on Arnette was either the 4th-6th ranked CB for 75%+ of teams.  I’d also say for teams that play press man a lot he was far more often CB4 than ranked lower.  
 

All of us blew our evaluation of Arnette.  I myself feel the most foolish because I didn’t question my notes that had him listed as around 4.35 back in ‘18.  I let the speed and shorter arms downgrade him heavily in our system when he played pressman at a high level for an elite team against competition for 3 years.  I learned a real lesson.  Your better off cutting off your “internet research” right around when the season ends.  The group think that we all are saturated by isn’t experienced by NFL teams.... they aren’t on thedraftnetwork.com reading bios and going back and watching YouTube videos.  “Damon Arnette vs “ youtube searches don’t paint an accurate picture of him.  Being on the field, talking to coaches, watching All-22s where you can see footwork, hand usage, etc through the entire route and see the coverage scheme and understand why he gave up and inside release there (When he had help to the inside) are how teams get the full story.  That’s the real story of the one we convince ourselves is true.

[jimkelly02]

52 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

We know certain teams were looking to trade up, GB to get Love, and would have netted us a 3rd or maybe even a 2nd moving back to the late 1st/early 2nd so why not for a player that would most likely still be there.  I like Arnette but I would be lying if I said I would take him over Jonson, Diggs, or Fulton plus a high pick this year or next.  You always take value into consideration whether a pick hits or not.  Get the odds on your side and you should be right more often than your competition.  I believe Gruden and Mayock thought they were getting value although I do not agree.  I read an article that said Gruden thought Arnette was a better DB than Okudah.  I do not know how much truth there is to that but if that was the case then I seriously question Gruden's evaluation skills for defensive players.

I’ve talked about GB before.  I thought that was THE team that called Mayock and he was talking about them in the PC (without mentioning specifics).  

I don’t think GB would have offered a 2nd though.  I think it was likely 30, 84, 175, and ‘21 3rd.  I don’t think they were willing to part with their 2nd for two reasons: Mayock said he Prolly still could have gotten Arnette with the pick from trade down but decided it wasn’t worth it.  Yeah, cuz the offer wasnt THAT good enough to convince him to take the risk of losing out on the only other 1st round graded CB he had who was the 3rd best CB fit (after Okudah and Terrell) and the drop off after was large.  It would have been very, very tough for GB to sell spending 30 and 62 to get a QB and could have created major criticism and a problems beyond what it did already with Rodgers.  They had to keep 62 and improve the team and offense this year.
 

I do think it was GB because obviously they really wanted Love (the actually took him and traded up for him) and it wasn’t a secret they really liked him prior to the draft.  This wasn’t a situation me with Rodgers where he fell into their laps and they had no one ranked as 1st round prospects left and it was a “how can we not” decision.  I said it ad nauseam “19 is the spot teams will first try trading up for Love at”.  Obviously out of greed I wanted us to be the one who traded down with a team coming up for him.  But there was some truths to it all.  After 19, Love was a legit option for Jax20, Minn22, NE23, NO24, Min25 plus GB30, SF31.  There was Indy (34+44) and Chi(43+50) who really could use a franchise QB on a rookie deal, for cap reasons, who could start in ‘21.  Someone was trading you for Love at 19 to guarantee getting him before he was taken by Jax,Minn,NE,NO .... OR... one of those 4 teams would take him... or GB, SF, Indy, Chi was trading up with Seattle27, possibly Balt28, or Tenn29 to end his slide.  It was one of those 3 scenarios.... or a mix of 2 of them.

The question now is should Mayock really have taken A deal like 30, 84, 175, ‘21 3rd? 

Its a simple yet complex answer: Yes if we still get Arnette.  Absolutely NO! If he’d be gone.  I think it would have been a massive failure.... several times worse then the missed opportunity of not trading down and still getting Arnette.  I believe Arnette is a better prospect then Fulton and much better than Johnson+Diggs.  Once the dust settled and I was again viewing the players without the lense of “internet group think” I think Arnette is CB4 and a late first round player and Fulton, Johnson, Diggs are all early to mid 2nd round grades.  
 

From the beginning I said if we traded down to 24-29 we’d acquire a 3rd round pick (At least, plus a ‘21 pick) and still be able to get Arnette with 100% certainty.  Idk if that’s true anymore.

Obvioisly Miami took Noah Igbinoghene at 30.  But had we traded with GB they’d still be picking at 26.  They have two of the best overall CBs in the NFL and wanted a slot CB.  While Arnette has the skill to play the more valuable outside CB, he’s got a lot of experience at the slot and is a significantly better prospect that Noah I as a slot CB.  However, Noah I had major upside, he’s so raw and just taping the surface.  We’ll never know who Miami Would have taken at 26 if they stayed there.  I really think Arnette is the pick though.

 

I really went in on blasting a Mayock.  Like bad!  But now I’m starting to think I was the moron and he was the wise one.  I really hurts me pride to admit it, but I think he made the right move not to trade down because Arnette wouldn’t have made it to 30, he’d have gone at 26n OR at least the chance of him going to 26 is too high to risky the reward.  
 

I now think he actually made a really really smart play here.  We all knew we were in a bad spot but the man seemed to have the intelligence and lack of greed I , and many others lacked.  In retrospect He might have really “saved” our draft by being willing to accept the Major criticism of reaching at 19.  Wow.... that really made me respect his intelligence and judgement a lot more than i did even before the draft.

I also need to learn to trust him and it over react.  In my defense.... he still Blew UDFAs big time lol.... I may have been wrong about Arnette AND trading down but there’s no way he didn’t mess up by giving Nick Bowers 100k instead of signing 2-4 top UDFAs.  There’s like zero chance I lll be wrong about this in the future too. 

[Darbsk]

6 hours ago, jpaulthe1st said:

 

Too many reaches and too little value in the early rounds to justify anything higher. I don’t have an issue with the vision but I do have an issue with the inability to effectively maneuver to grab “our guy” while maximizing value. Hopefully Mayock will learn from this and get better in the future. 

Agree with this completely, liked the players but you have to also factor in value and reaching. Arnette may turn out to be great but he almost certainly could have been had later and added another pick which could gave been valuable. I also like the vision and what they seem to be setting out to do with toughness and tenacity on D and speed and playmaking ability on O.

[oakdb36]

10 hours ago, Turnobili said:

The draft certainly would have been improved had we taken a different corner at 19, whether it be AJ Terrell, Jaylon Johnson, or Kristian Fulton. And if Mayock/Gruden/Guenther really felt that Arnette was their guy, then thats' fine, but you still have to get full value for your pick, and they needed to trade back to justify the pick. 

We don't know if we got good value with Arnette but we definitely know drafting Johnson or Fulton at 19 wasn't good value. They both went in the bottom half of the 2nd.

[BayRaider]

4 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

We don't know if we got good value with Arnette but we definitely know drafting Johnson or Fulton at 19 wasn't good value. They both went in the bottom half of the 2nd.

It’s very likely Arnette goes 40-50 as well though. Although we can never prove that. Same thing with Ferrell last year. Probably 16-18, although we can never prove it. Mayock doesn’t take consensus into account, not even to a minor degree. He should though, because that’s how you get value. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by BayRaider

[oakdb36]

3 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

Would you be more happy picking a different CB, and if so who?

I would have picked Fulton and the rest of the NFL would be thinking i badly reached right now.

[jimkelly02]

1 minute ago, oakdb36 said:

I would have picked Fulton and the rest of the NFL would be thinking i badly reached right now.

You’d still rather have Fulton?

[oakdb36]

5 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

It’s very likely Arnette goes 40-50 as well though. Although we can never prove that. Same thing with Ferrell last year. Probably 16-18, although we can never prove it. Mayock doesn’t take consensus into account, not even to a minor degree. He should though, because that’s how you get value. 

Not arguing this because we don't know. Where Johnson and Fulton ended up dropping, we do know.