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drfrey13

The Nation vs Mayock (Gruden) 2020

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Posted (edited)

Same rules as before:

We all like to say we wanted this player or a year from now that we were pounding the table for that player.  We are lucky and get to use a little hindsight in this exercise but try to limit it by only thinking of the pick at hand and not who you know is available later on.  I want to get everyone on the record right after the draft what they would have done.  A couple rules first.

1. Do not go and look who is available for our next pick if you are having a hard time deciding between players.

2. You can not draft a different player at say 19 and then say that Arnette would have still been there at 80.  

3. No trades except the trades already executed by Mayock in the real draft so those are the spots you have to make the choices at.

4.  I know the draft would have had a different trajectory if we select different players but for this exercise we will assume that the player we switch out would have been selected within 5 spots of our original spot and therefore limiting the butterfly effect. 

This is a fun exercise and only try to post your picks with a small explanation.  This is so we can bring it back up around draft time next year and eat some humble pie or puff up our chest and tell everyone else we really are better than Mayock and Gruden.

 

1.12 Henry Ruggs, Alabama, WR

1.19 Damon Arnette, Ohio St, CB

3.80 Lynn Bowden, Kentucky, ATH

3.81 Bryan Edwards, South Carolina, WR

3.100 Tanner Muse, Clemson, LB

4.109 John Simpson, Clemson, OG

4.139 Amik Robertson, Louisiana Tech, CB

 

This was the year to trade down and we did not.  With that said this is what I would do at our spots.

1.12 Javon Kinlaw - Top 3 WR still on board I role the dice with the upside pick.

1.19 Justin Jefferson - With the top WRs gone I panick a little and reach a little but not as much as Arnette who I do like.

3.80 Cameron Dantzler - We still need a CB and I he hurt his stock with trying to put on weight before the draft.  His tape is better than his athletic numbers.

3.81 Terrell Lewis - Not an area of need but good value.  Could have easily been a 2nd rounder.  I like Edwards but I thought he would be there later and would have passed for now.

3.100 Troy Dye - We still need another LB or 2 and it was between him and Akeem Davis-Gaithers.  Went with Dye because I know more about him.

4.109 Jon Simpson - I have to admit I like Kindley (Arm length scares me) more but I had mocked Simpson to us so I will stick to my earlier thoughts.

4.139 Amik Robertson - I would have wanted to draft Donovan Peoples-Jones but Amik was to good of a value to pass again.  Either way we wold have improved but Amik is also safer.

Edited by drfrey13

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Posted (edited)

I'm not gonna use hindsight and post what I would of done in real time on the clock (which is the point of the thread):

1.12

WR Jerry Jeudy

1.19

CB Jaylon Johnson

3.80 

S Terrell Burgess

3.81

DT Jordan Elliott

3.100 

OG Ben Bredeson (yikes, big reach in hindsight)

4.109

CB Amik Robertson (Looks like I would have taken him way sooner than Mayock, props to Mayock for value)

4.139

WR Tyler Johnson

 

Jaylon Johnson may seem like a reach in hindsight, but so is Arnette, who most likely goes 40-50 range.

Edited by BayRaider

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Hmm, I’d definitely have moved up for Mims in the 2nd but hard to decide what picks would be agreed upon

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Very interesting thought experiment. I probably would have went with something like:

1.12: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

1.19: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Az St

3.80: Cameron Dantzler, CB, Miss St

3.81: Zack Moss, RB, Utah

3.100: Amik Robertson, CB, La Tech

4.109: Charlie Heck, OT, UNC

4.139: Bradlee Anae, DE, Utah

Wouldnt have considered double dipping on WR in the 1st but board fell thay way imo. Other picks were a combination of personal faborites and BPA/areas of need. 

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I'll fill out my full one here in a few minutes, but I will say I like the Ruggs pick, I definitely would have went Lamb though. Even more so because the way the board fell, I think there's a really strong chance we could have taken Lamb at 12 and had Ruggs still be there at 19. I don't neccesarily think the Cowboys would have taken Ruggs, not because he isn't worth the pick, but because he doesn't compliment the Dallas wideouts as well as Lamb, WR wasn't even really a need. Lamb was just BPA and fit Cooper and Gallop like a glove. And with how the board fell to 12 and using hindsight for the picks after I think Lamb and Ruggs could have been our firsts, and while I didn't love the idea of double dipping at WR in the first, I think in that scenario I would have pulled the trigger. 

With that said I'll put down what I would have done in the next few minutes without using the hindsight of how the picks actually played out to the best of my ability. 

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Posted (edited)

12 Jerry Jeudy

19 Jaylon Johnson 

80 Terrell Burgess

81 Zack Moss

100 Troy Dye

109 Bryce Hall

139 Tyler Johnson 

Edit: adding 2019 as someone on here wanted to keep track of the last 2 drafts.

4 Josh Allen

24 Montez Sweat (oof...)

27 Byron Murphy

40 JJ Arcega-Whiteside

106 Bryce Love

129 Foster Moreau

137 Marvell Tell III

149 Kelvin Harmon

230 John Ursua

Disclaimer: had to adjust 40 and 106 with the assumption that Jacobs would not have made it to 40. If so, my picks would have been Jacobs at 40, Riley Ridley at 106. Under these rules, if Jacobs is off the board, would've gone with my top WR and taken my BPA RB next. 

 

Edited by ronjon1990
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Doing this strictly off the big board I posted in the big board thread, instead of live since I was doing my expansion team live, but off my big board from a week ago I would have ended up with:

1.12 Ceedee Lamb, WR Oklahoma

1.19 Jaylon Johnson, CB Utah

3.80 Neville Gallimore, DT Oklahoma

3.81 Akeem Davis Gaither, OLB Appalachian State

3.100 Amik Robinson, CB Louisiana Tech

4.109 Logan Stenberg, G Kentucky

4.139 Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Michigan

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Round 1 Pick 12 - Ceedee Lamb, WR - Ruggs was my second choice with how the board fell when we were on the clock so I wasn't angry, but I still have Lamb as a better player and a fantastic fit in our offense. 

Round 1 Pick 19 - Kristian Fulton, CB - Back to back picks of going with the same position that was actually drafted but with a different prospect. Fulton ended up going near the bottom of the second, but without using hindsight or making trades I would have went with my number 2 corner in the draft. I think he would have been a great fit in our system and has more upside than the corner we took because he's simply a better athlete. 

Note - I would have tried my absolute best to trade up to the end of the second when Mims was still available. He was my 4th ranked WR that would fit well alongside Lamb as a potential long term dominant duo. He has the ability to end up as one of the 10 best wideouts in the NFL. We aren't doing trades so I'll just leave it at that, but wanted that on the record for potential bragging rights in the future lol.

Round 3 Pick 80 - Terrell Lewis, EDGE - I thought Lewis has a chance to go at the tail end of the first or pretty early on day two, in reality he was available here when we go on the clock. There are some medical concerns that I don't have enough knowledge or understanding to comment on, and he needs some refinement, but what guy available in the third doesn't have some work to do. I think a case could be made he was the BPA here and he brings an element to the table we don't have a ton of with our current edge players. We have young guys we want to develop but football games are won in the trenches even more so in todays game by making opposing QBs uncomfortable. Our young guys and free agent acquisition Nassib can all rotate and allow us to bring Lewis along at a slower pace while he cleans up some technical stuff and make sure he's 100% healthy. 

Round 3 Pick 81 - Malik Harrison, LB - LB isn't the most pressing need for us coming into the draft because of who we brought in during free agency, Littleton seems like almost a sure thing to be at least a good LB for us, hopefully a great one, but Kwit has some question marks. He has shown some flashes when he got playing time but it was limited and he'll now be playing in a different system under different coaches with different teammates. A little insurance with a guy like Harrison wouldn't have been a bad thing. Best case Kwit is the MLB and leader of the defense we paid for him to be and Harrison can play on the strong side and provide depth in the event of an injury and hopefully molded into a long term starter.

Round 3, Pick 100 - Terrell Burgess, S - We all hope Randall can come provide some stability at one safety spot and Abram is a guy we expect to be a long term fixture at the other S spot, but Randall is on a one year deal for a very reasonable salary. Burgess was one of the safeties I liked the most because I thought he could be had in this range. He only had one year of heavy playing time. But he flashed a lot during that year. I think he's a guy that can play S and drop down and play some nickel corner as well. A potential starter in a year or two. 

Round 4 Pick 109 - Amik Robertson, CB - We obviously grabbed him later in real life but without factoring that in I would have pulled the trigger here and not risk someone else snatching him up. I thought he was someone that would start getting strong consideration from teams towards the end of the second. When you watch this kid play he checks almost every box besides elite size. Ridiculous ball skills, he's crazy physical, good instincts, productive, you can see he absolutely loves to compete. I think he has the strength to play on the outside some but it's hard to envision him not becoming a really high end slot corner when you watch him play. Another chess piece on the back end of the defense where we still have the most question marks just because we're banking on a bunch of guys without much experience or proven track records. Everything can't be fixed at once so rolling the dice on youth at positions where young legs dominate makes some sense, but I would want another crack or two at hitting on them. With Mullen, Fulton and Robertson I believe we could have both boundary and the nickel spot covered for the next 5+ years with young talented guys on rookie deals. 

Round 4 Pick 139 - Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR - He ended up going much later but among my WR rankings he would have been well worthy of a selection at the end of the 4th. There's so much untapped potential and a ridiculously high ceiling. He could easily develop into a high end number 2 on a good to great passing attack. He has the potential to add something unique to the WR room with his size and athleticism. Plus Lamb, Waller, Williams, and Renfrow can handle the heavy lifting of the passing game this year while DPJ works on improving his game and becoming more well rounded and providing high upside depth. Hopefully he capitalizes on the opportunities he gets his rookie year or hits the ground running if he fills in due to injuries and with continued development he could be Williams long term replacement as the second option to Lamb in this scenario. 

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31 minutes ago, Mr Raider said:

Round 1 Pick 12 - Ceedee Lamb, WR - 

Round 1 Pick 19 - Kristian Fulton, CB - 

Note - I would have tried my absolute best to trade up to the end of the second when Mims was still available. He was my 4th ranked WR that would fit well alongside Lamb as a potential long term dominant duo. He has the ability to end up as one of the 10 best wideouts in the NFL. We aren't doing trades so I'll just leave it at that, but wanted that on the record for potential bragging rights in the future lol.

Round 3 Pick 80 - Terrell Lewis, EDGE 

Round 3 Pick 81 - Malik Harrison, LB - 

Round 3, Pick 100 - Terrell Burgess, S 

Round 4 Pick 109 - Amik Robertson, CB

Round 4 Pick 139 - Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR 

love the board, nearly identical to mine... loved Harrison, Robertson,Burgess  I just liked Gallimore over Lewis.


You nailed one of Mayocks biggest mistakes this draft: 

he didn’t trade up into the second.  Why spent 80+81 on two WR when you could have had Denzel Mims and a great duo long term with Lamb (or Ruggs).  
 

the second massive mistake he made was not trading down before taking Arnette.  He even said teams (plural) called him to trade up for 19.  He panicked after AJ Terrell was off the board and he had a backup plan in his head (Arnette) and despite knowing the earliest he would ever go was 30, he was too scared to change the plan he came into the draft with if Arnette god forbid went before, despite several other very good CBS for our system that would have been available at which ever spot he traded down too. 
 

We could have taken Love at 19, as could Jax@20, Min@22/25, NE@23, NO@24... every team was a legit candidate.  GB was obviously targeting Love.  GB gave up a 1.30+4.136 to move up to 1.24.  (SF gave up 1.31, 4.117, 5.176 to move to 1.25). There is absolutely no way GB, with a ton of picks, and a real need to start developing a replacement for 36yo Rodgers did not at least offer 1.30 + 3.94 (and something... but let’s just say for arguments sake they paid literally 50 cents on the dollar: just 3.94) to move up to 19.  It’s a matter of a 3rd vs 4th to make sure you get the Player you really want.  
 

We could  have taken that 3.94 and either moved up for Denzel Mims (or K.Fulton) in the late Second .... or offered any combo of 80/121 and 91/94 to move up into the high third for any of Julian Okwara, Ashtyn Davis, Josh Jones, Zach Braun, etc: all great values.  
 

the only pick I despised outright was Tanner Muse.  There were far better players available. We finally trade down and make a smart trade (that really was a nice double trade to get two 4ths earlier in the round) but we should have just stayed at 91 and taken Malik Harrison (if we wanted a LB) or taking one of many far better players: Terrell Burgess, ADG, etc.  
I know we need some ST players but you don’t draft a guy in the third just to do that.  Real bad pick.

Mayock turned the draft around with Robertson and Simpson... he got back some of the value he lost drafting players too high.  I understand ever pick isn’t going to be one of the top “best players available” because GM+ teams go into the draft with a plan+shopping list and a ranking of players for each item on that shopping list.  Mayocks problem is he choose not to or didn’t have the ability to improvise from his plan.  Jerry Jones, Baltimore killed that draft because they took advantage of players falling to them.  They still considered team needs but BPA was more important.  they didn’t have a rigid plan like mayock did.  

we all knew 19 was a bad spot so I do realize I’m being hard on Mayock.  But he’s better than this draft... he’s good at mixing around the board in the fourth to get great picks... he just made a mistake in judgement 2x: didn’t trade down for Arnette and didn’t trade up in late 2nd or early 3rd.  I knew at the time those were errors so it wasn’t a after the fact judgement/Monday morning  Quarterbacking.   
 

And I get the importance of building culture.... really really important.  But that doesn’t mean you over draft guys like Tanner Muse.

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6 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

love the board, nearly identical to mine... loved Harrison, Robertson,Burgess  I just liked Gallimore over Lewis.


You nailed one of Mayocks biggest mistakes this draft: 

he didn’t trade up into the second.  Why spent 80+81 on two WR when you could have had Denzel Mims and a great duo long term with Lamb (or Ruggs).  
 

the second massive mistake he made was not trading down before taking Arnette.  He even said teams (plural) called him to trade up for 19.  He panicked after AJ Terrell was off the board and he had a backup plan in his head (Arnette) and despite knowing the earliest he would ever go was 30, he was too scared to change the plan he came into the draft with if Arnette god forbid went before, despite several other very good CBS for our system that would have been available at which ever spot he traded down too. 
 

We could have taken Love at 19, as could Jax@20, Min@22/25, NE@23, NO@24... every team was a legit candidate.  GB was obviously targeting Love.  GB gave up a 1.30+4.136 to move up to 1.24.  (SF gave up 1.31, 4.117, 5.176 to move to 1.25). There is absolutely no way GB, with a ton of picks, and a real need to start developing a replacement for 36yo Rodgers did not at least offer 1.30 + 3.94 (and something... but let’s just say for arguments sake they paid literally 50 cents on the dollar: just 3.94) to move up to 19.  It’s a matter of a 3rd vs 4th to make sure you get the Player you really want.  
 

We could  have taken that 3.94 and either moved up for Denzel Mims (or K.Fulton) in the late Second .... or offered any combo of 80/121 and 91/94 to move up into the high third for any of Julian Okwara, Ashtyn Davis, Josh Jones, Zach Braun, etc: all great values.  
 

the only pick I despised outright was Tanner Muse.  There were far better players available. We finally trade down and make a smart trade (that really was a nice double trade to get two 4ths earlier in the round) but we should have just stayed at 91 and taken Malik Harrison (if we wanted a LB) or taking one of many far better players: Terrell Burgess, ADG, etc.  
I know we need some ST players but you don’t draft a guy in the third just to do that.  Real bad pick.

Mayock turned the draft around with Robertson and Simpson... he got back some of the value he lost drafting players too high.  I understand ever pick isn’t going to be one of the top “best players available” because GM+ teams go into the draft with a plan+shopping list and a ranking of players for each item on that shopping list.  Mayocks problem is he choose not to or didn’t have the ability to improvise from his plan.  Jerry Jones, Baltimore killed that draft because they took advantage of players falling to them.  They still considered team needs but BPA was more important.  they didn’t have a rigid plan like mayock did.  

we all knew 19 was a bad spot so I do realize I’m being hard on Mayock.  But he’s better than this draft... he’s good at mixing around the board in the fourth to get great picks... he just made a mistake in judgement 2x: didn’t trade down for Arnette and didn’t trade up in late 2nd or early 3rd.  I knew at the time those were errors so it wasn’t a after the fact judgement/Monday morning  Quarterbacking.   
 

And I get the importance of building culture.... really really important.  But that doesn’t mean you over draft guys like Tanner Muse.

I agree completely about Muse. He definitely has some really good speed for a guy that likely plays LB, but he's so stiff when I watch him. And he's on the older side (which is often overblown but it is something to factor in if you're drafting a guy to play a spot/role you just paid a big.money free agent to fill). I personally wouldn't have had him on my board until like the 5th round. I'm just not a huge fan. Culture and leadership and stuff is important and it can be a deciding factor for similarly talented players but it can't outweigh talent at that spot IMO. It's not like every guy available then is some locker room cancer lol. 

I also agree that Mayock and company left some value on the table with Arnette. I do like his game. I do think he can be a solid starter for us, but I'm never in favor of being so locked on to a specific guy in the same talent range as a bunch of others that you won't take any risk at a trade down. Ignoring the possibility of a trade down really should only be a priority when the guy you like is just head and shoulders better than the guys in the range you would be trading too. I don't see that with Arnette even if we traded all the way down to like the middle of the second. 

Like I've said in other posts, I may have gone a different route, but I do see the overall blueprint they're trying to build towards, and I'm fine with that. It beats the Al late years of just throwing a bunch of random philosophies together. Only time will tell if it works to the level we want. 

I see a solid draft class. I think it could have been better at certain spots, but I also think we will have a second class in a row with some tremendous value found in the third and fourth round range. I don't see a class chalk full of a bunch of mistakes that will cost people their jobs. I hope with more experience Mayock continues to improve and I hope the more gems we find that contribute in the mid rounds the more Gruden will lean on Mayock (I could be wrong but the mid rounds seem more like Mayock types for the second year in a row). 

End of the day, who knows. The draft is a complete crap shoot. Maybe Arnette turns out to be the best corner in the class and Ruggs is a faster Antonio Brown. That's what makes it such a blast. 

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34 minutes ago, Mr Raider said:

I agree completely about Muse. He definitely has some really good speed for a guy that likely plays LB, but he's so stiff when I watch him. And he's on the older side (which is often overblown but it is something to factor in if you're drafting a guy to play a spot/role you just paid a big.money free agent to fill). I personally wouldn't have had him on my board until like the 5th round. I'm just not a huge fan. Culture and leadership and stuff is important and it can be a deciding factor for similarly talented players but it can't outweigh talent at that spot IMO. It's not like every guy available then is some locker room cancer lol. 

I also agree that Mayock and company left some value on the table with Arnette. I do like his game. I do think he can be a solid starter for us, but I'm never in favor of being so locked on to a specific guy in the same talent range as a bunch of others that you won't take any risk at a trade down. Ignoring the possibility of a trade down really should only be a priority when the guy you like is just head and shoulders better than the guys in the range you would be trading too. I don't see that with Arnette even if we traded all the way down to like the middle of the second. 

Like I've said in other posts, I may have gone a different route, but I do see the overall blueprint they're trying to build towards, and I'm fine with that. It beats the Al late years of just throwing a bunch of random philosophies together. Only time will tell if it works to the level we want. 

I see a solid draft class. I think it could have been better at certain spots, but I also think we will have a second class in a row with some tremendous value found in the third and fourth round range. I don't see a class chalk full of a bunch of mistakes that will cost people their jobs. I hope with more experience Mayock continues to improve and I hope the more gems we find that contribute in the mid rounds the more Gruden will lean on Mayock (I could be wrong but the mid rounds seem more like Mayock types for the second year in a row). 

End of the day, who knows. The draft is a complete crap shoot. Maybe Arnette turns out to be the best corner in the class and Ruggs is a faster Antonio Brown. That's what makes it such a blast. 

I’ll come back to comment more im just short on time now....

but I think this was definitely a learning experience for Mayock.  Its hard to make decisions on the spot especially when ur plan A is spoiled unexpectedly.  
i Know why he overdrafted those that he did: “culture”

i can chalk up these mistakes if this is the end over emphasizing “culture” over talent.  By year 3 he’s gotta draft for talent above all else.  We should have a roster filled with his “culture” guys.  I’m not saying draft cancerous players.  But we can’t keep doing Tanner Muse over guys like he skipped.  That was a joke... he might not deserve to make the team honestly.  He will cuZ of where he was drafted and they wouldn’t dare cut him before year 1.

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3 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

12 Jerry Jeudy

19 Jaylon Johnson 

80 Terrell Burgess

81 Zack Moss

100 Troy Dye

109 Bryce Hall

139 Tyler Johnson 

I like it with all those Utes, I also love Dye.  Jeudy was my #1 WR and this is close to something I would have done.

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If The Raiders followed my projected board
12. CeeDee Lamb
19. Trevon Diggs
80. Jacob Phillips
81. Donovan Peoples-Jones
100. Kenny Robinson
109. Curtis Weaver
139. Jake Fromm

What I would have done when on the clock.
12. Javon Kinlaw
19. Trevon Diggs
80. Jacob Phillps
81. Bryan Edwards
100. Donovan Peoples-Jones
109. Kenny Robinson
139. Khalid Kareem

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1.12 Henry Ruggs, WR Alabama - would have got my preferred WR after Henderson and Simmons were off the board. 

1.19 K'Lavon Chaisson Edge/SLB- LSU - would have rolled the dice and went with a guy who has a chance to be a star pass rusher. Comes from a winning program and compared to Aldon. We play against Patrick Mahomes, and I was about adding a defensive star 

3.80 Bryan Edwards WR South Carolina- would have pulled the trigger once he fell to 80. I would have been trying to package a 3rd/4th to get back into the 2nd. Especially when Johnson dropped. 

3.81 Cameron Dantlzer CB- probably would have took a risk on him, even with the concerns with this speed. Ideally would have traded up to the 2nd for a 2nd tier CB. Also would have considered Bryce Hall

3.100 Amik Robinson, CB - wanted him in the 3rd, would have added a dog with speed in the slot. 

4.109 Troy Dye LB- at that point wanted to add more speed at LB spot, and like Dye in the 4th. Wouldn't have traded up so would have kept the 5th

4.139 Kenny Robinson S- would have took another gamble on our 3rd safety and ball hawk

5.174  Eno Benjamin RB- RB2 in the late 5th, explosive back. 

 

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