UDFA showcase showdown 2020 (MNF)

[FinneasGage]

i think frankie griffin might be a pretty good player for us 

[MrBobGray]

On 5/18/2020 at 3:09 AM, mikemike778 said:

And this is where the problem lies and the strategy is flawed. We had one legitimate receiver last season.  It doesn't really make any sense to build your team around the passing game and stopping the pass but neglect having someone to catch the ball. Stacks of draft capital was thrown at the secondary but nothing meaningful at receiver for a long time.  Maybe peak Rodgers can have a high powered passing game with just Adams but its a bit optimistic to expect that of a regressing Rodgers.

The team last season didn't really have an identity. A combination of luck, Adams,  the defence having its moments and Rodgers doing just enough got us to a 13-3. I don't like the draft but it does seem a more coherent strategy. 

So here's my counter to that: if we assume this is true, what exactly are you paying Aaron $30 million for?  I mean, Brees has Michael Thomas and Jared Cook: his WR2 was Ted Ginn, who managed 30 for 421 yards and 2 TDs.  Yet he posted a passer rating 20 points higher than Aaron's.  In 2018 Russell Wilson managed a 110 passer rating with a joke of an OL throwing to Tyler Lockett and a broken down Doug Baldwin as basically his only targets.  Brady has spent stretches of his career excelling with pretty much only Gronk as a legitimate weapon. 

And that's ignoring the bigger issue: if you need to spend on both a high end receiving group to go with your big money QB, how do you pay the rest of the team?

In 2019, the six highest paid players on the team were all on offense going by the 2019 cap hit: Rodgers, Bahk, Graham, Adams, Bulaga, Linsley. They combined for 42.51% of the cap.  In 2020, the combined cap hit for Rodgers, Adams, and Bahk will be 26% of the 2020 cap.  That's over a quarter of the team's cap going to three players on offense - you still need to pay the other 50.  You could draft them higher, pour your draft picks into offense to avoid spending any more money, but then you're putting both your money and your highest value draft picks into the offense.  How do you build a defense that way?  Besides that, dropping high value picks on receiver has not been a winning strategy in the NFL, probably because almost no other position is as dependent on literally everyone else doing their job.  The OL needs to give time and the QB needs to throw a catchable ball before the WR matters.

The team has consistently had one of if not the best pass blocking OL's in football for the past several years.  Davante has been an elite #1 the past two years.  Jones has been exceptional.  The one part of the offense that hasn't really played up to his contract is Aaron; I'm not sure I can get behind the theory that we fix this by pouring even more resources into the offense and hope that eventually with enough pieces Aaron will also be elite again.  At some point, the team needs Aaron to produce with what they have; if he really needs even more resources to be successful, then he's not a $30 million QB and it's time to move on. 

[Donzo]

On 5/12/2020 at 10:35 AM, vegas492 said:

Seems like Packer fans just aren't happy unless they are unhappy about something.

Yep... Nobody suffers success more than a Packer fans.

[Donzo]

On 5/14/2020 at 8:11 PM, MrBobGray said:

This is always going to be the issue with teams built around Rodgers though.  You can't do everything in today's NFL, and especially not with $30 mil going to your QB, so you pick your poisons.  

The Packers have put nearly all their value in terms of draft picks and FA signings into OL, WR, secondary and EDGE in the past 7 years; this team is built to go as Rodgers goes.  They are not built to play a contender on the road with no run support.

A lot of bad data there.

First, when has Rodger ever had a $30M cap hit? He's only around $22M this year, $21M in 2018 and has been massively underpaid the past eleven years or so. Probably 2nd to Brady for the most underpaid veteran player in the league the past 10+ years. 

Did you really lump WR in with secondary and edge as areas the Packers have invested draft value and FA signings the past seven years?... OMG, that may be the most inaccurate take I've ever seen on this board- wow!

[Donzo]

On 5/19/2020 at 8:13 PM, MrBobGray said:

So here's my counter to that: if we assume this is true, what exactly are you paying Aaron $30 million for?  I mean, Brees has Michael Thomas and Jared Cook: his WR2 was Ted Ginn, who managed 30 for 421 yards and 2 TDs.  Yet he posted a passer rating 20 points higher than Aaron's.  In 2018 Russell Wilson managed a 110 passer rating with a joke of an OL throwing to Tyler Lockett and a broken down Doug Baldwin as basically his only targets.  Brady has spent stretches of his career excelling with pretty much only Gronk as a legitimate weapon. 

Dang, I don't mean to be pounding on your posts today. You're just posting so much inaccurate info and Rodgers hate it's hard to ignore. This'll be my last reply.

Who's this "we' you're talking about as far as paying Rodgers $30M? You and the Packers- are you paying Rodger $9M?... I know that's silly, so are you talking about the Packers and State Farm? If State Farm is paying Rodger $9M, you know that doesn't count against the Packers cap.

Did you really pimp Brees passer rating- wow... The guy plays in a dome, passed for less that 3,000 yards and crapped the bed in the first round of the playoffs at home against the vikes- that's actually kinda funny... You forgot Metcalf in Seattle. That speed sure would have been nice in GB... Well, Brady faded hard with poor WR talent last year and how do you think Brady would have done the past ten years with the Packers defense?!?... History would be little different.

 

 

[MrBobGray]

25 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Dang, I don't mean to be pounding on your posts today. You're just posting so much inaccurate info and Rodgers hate it's hard to ignore. This'll be my last reply.

Who's this "we' you're talking about as far as paying Rodgers $30M? You and the Packers- are you paying Rodger $9M?... I know that's silly, so are you talking about the Packers and State Farm? If State Farm is paying Rodger $9M, you know that doesn't count against the Packers cap.

Did you really pimp Brees passer rating- wow... The guy plays in a dome, passed for less that 3,000 yards and crapped the bed in the first round of the playoffs at home against the vikes- that's actually kinda funny... You forgot Metcalf in Seattle. That speed sure would have been nice in GB... Well, Brady faded hard with poor WR talent last year and how do you think Brady would have done the past ten years with the Packers defense?!?... History would be little different.

 

 

If we're going to do this, let's do this.

If we want to play the yearly cap hit game, then Rodgers needs to providde $36 million in value in 2021 and $40 million in 2022.  So sure, we'll say he's making $21 million this year, as long as you're OK expecting him to play above the level of an elite QB by about 15% in 2021.  If he doesn't come close to setting the single season passer rating in either of those years, he'll be drastically overpaid as a metric.  Good luck to him I guess?

Brees passed for less than 3k yards because he was injured.  He averaged 270 YPG, 20 more than Aaron.  He crapped the bed in the playoffs?  The game went to OT and he had a 90.4 passer rating; it may not be an elite performance but that's a terrible take.

Metcalf wasn't in Seattle in 2018.  They drafted him this year.

Brady is 42 years old.  He also had a worse OL, worse RBs, and worse TEs than the Packers.  So, sure; he faded last year as a QB 6 years Aaron's senior with an offense that was significantly worse at every position.  That doesn't exactly change my opinion of Aaron.

[Donzo]

4 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

If we're going to do this, let's do this.

If we want to play the yearly cap hit game, then Rodgers needs to providde $36 million in value in 2021 and $40 million in 2022.  So sure, we'll say he's making $21 million this year, as long as you're OK expecting him to play above the level of an elite QB by about 15% in 2021.  If he doesn't come close to setting the single season passer rating in either of those years, he'll be drastically overpaid as a metric.  Good luck to him I guess?

Brees passed for less than 3k yards because he was injured.  He averaged 270 YPG, 20 more than Aaron.  He crapped the bed in the playoffs?  The game went to OT and he had a 90.4 passer rating; it may not be an elite performance but that's a terrible take.

Metcalf wasn't in Seattle in 2018.  They drafted him this year.

Brady is 42 years old.  He also had a worse OL, worse RBs, and worse TEs than the Packers.  So, sure; he faded last year as a QB 6 years Aaron's senior with an offense that was significantly worse at every position.  That doesn't exactly change my opinion of Aaron.

That's just mostly spin and some rant stuff. I din't notice your were talking about Seattle in 2018- gottcha. I didn't think you would compare 2018 Wilson to Rodgers. Wilson passed for like 3,5000 yards in a full season. The team ran for around 2,5000 yards. They sure weren't counting on Wilson to win games like the Packers do with Rodgers... Gotta respect Seahawks' management in going out and getting Wilson some weapons when needed.

Interesting that you ignored my question about Brady playing with the Packers defense the past ten years. To be honest, I would have ignored that, too... lol

Rodgers went out and threw his team to victory at home against the Seahawks. Brees threw his team to defeat at home in the playoffs against the Vikings... Mic drop- boom!

I can see you just want to get your Rodgers hate on. That seems to be popular here as well. Kinda crazy for  a Packer board, but not this board. Very little actual Packer talk... I'll leave this thread for UDFA stuff. I'll bring the Rodger talk to one of his threads. If you want to continue your rant there; I may reply. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Donzo
time edit check

[Brit Pack]

On 5/20/2020 at 1:13 AM, MrBobGray said:

In 2019, the six highest paid players on the team were all on offense going by the 2019 cap hit: Rodgers, Bahk, Graham, Adams, Bulaga, Linsley. They combined for 42.51% of the cap.  In 2020, the combined cap hit for Rodgers, Adams, and Bahk will be 26% of the 2020 cap.  That's over a quarter of the team's cap going to three players on offense - you still need to pay the other 50.

This is true for the Packers and pretty much every team. Where your top 5 or 6 players will account for around 40% - 50% of the cap, where around your top 20 combined players will account for between 70% - 80% of your cap and the other 40 players you pay account for about 15% of the cap. The question is really how do you want to divvy up that 40% of the cap to which players. Rosters across the league are heavily skewed towards a handful of top players accounting for the majority of the cap.

I have done it for last season but in 2018 here are some figures.
In 2018, 8 players accounted for 56.5% of the cap. 5 of those were on offence and 3 on defence. 

Here are some comparisons for teams in 2018:
Giants   24 players = 79% of cap. 40 players = 11.72%   
Browns    16 players = 53% of cap. 47 players  = 16.77%  
Ravens    22 players = 67.18%.    48 players =  18.93%  
Lions    24 players = 78.83% . 43 players = 14.38%  
Bears    23 players = 74.65%.   45 players = 17.47% 
Packers   21 players =  79%.   46 players =  13.88%  
 

[Shanedorf]

More background on some of the UDFA class from ACME as they run through the bottom of the 90 man roster

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2020/5/28/21272359/packers-2020-90-man-roster-ranking-in-the-90-81-group-udfas-abound?