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Packers 2020 WR Corps


TheOnlyThing

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42 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Marquez Valdez-Scantling - 6 targets, 4 catches, 96 yards, 1 TD.

Entire 2020 WR draft class - 67 targets, 40 receptions, 559 yards, 1 TD.

Average rookie - 2.4 targets, 1.4 receptions, 20.7 yards.

The best rookie had 6 targets for 5 receptions and 59 yards (Ceedee Lamb).

2020 leading receivers:

Davante Adams is #1 with 14 receptions, 156 yards, 2 TD.

MVS is 17th in receiving yards.  MVS is in first place in yards per reception.  He's 5th in yards per target. 

That's great and I value and expect things from MVS as much as you.

But this is literally based off the first game of those rookie's career. Let's pump the breaks.

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Just now, packfanfb said:

Before I jump on the MVS has arrived train, I want to see him stack some success. He's had big games before and then he disappears for 2 weeks, whether that's on him or 12. I want to 2-3 games in a row where he looks like a No. 2 (4-6 recs, 40-100 yards). Then we'll have something. 

He has an opportunity this week for another big game, then Week 3 will be the first big test for him because instead of going up against Danzler and Detroit's No. 3-4 (due to injuries), he'll be dealing with Janoris Jenkins or Patrick Robinson, two vets.  

I'm mostly just pointing out how it wasn't a terrible decision to skip a WR this year in light of COVID-19.  Jeudy, Lamb, etc have higher potential in the long run, but this year?  I don't think any rookie receiver is going to eclipse MVS's numbers this year.

Last year, 59 receptions was the rookie high.
2018 the high was 64.
2017 the high was 62.
2016 it was Michael Thomas at 92, then second place of 65.
2015 it was 72.

I'm just trying to dispel the notion that rookie receivers come right in and have immediate impacts.  These highs are HIGHS.  Meaning, for every 59, 64, 62, 92, 72 reception season, you get 20 some who have 5-20 receptions. 

Since 2010, 36 rookie receivers had over 50 receptions. 
459 rookie receivers had under 20 receptions.

That's 6% of rookie receivers over 50 receptions.
78% under 20. 

 

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Just now, Arthur Penske said:

That's great and I value and expect things from MVS as much as you.

But this is literally based off the first game of those rookie's career. Let's pump the breaks.

No, let's not pump the breaks.  6% of rookie receivers since 2010 had over 50 receptions.  77% have had under 20.  The question at hand and what I'm pointing out is how often rookie receivers have significant first year impacts and whether or not we should have drafted a receiver to help Rodgers for this year. 

They don't.

Especially in years without a preseason. 

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2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

No, let's not pump the breaks.  6% of rookie receivers since 2010 had over 50 receptions.  77% have had under 20.  The question at hand and what I'm pointing out is how often rookie receivers have significant first year impacts and whether or not we should have drafted a receiver to help Rodgers for this year. 

They don't.

Especially in years without a preseason. 

if you don't think any of those early WRs from 2020 are going to contribute down the line ( beyond 2020 is in consideration), you're being pretty obtuse.

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24 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

if you don't think any of those early WRs from 2020 are going to contribute down the line ( beyond 2020 is in consideration), you're being pretty obtuse.

I’ve said it twice I’ll say it a third time: I am talking about this year. Yes, Lamb, Jeudy, etc have higher upside than MVS.  That’s not what I’m discussing.

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Yes, it's only 3 weeks, but that's 3 weeks for MVS and Lazard to entrench themselves ahead of him.  It's not like his name was popping off the page in the TC reports.  He'll need an MVS or Lazard injury to have any kind of meaningful impact... or for one of them to go in the tank like MVS did last season.

Edited by Mazrimiv
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On 9/18/2020 at 10:39 AM, Outpost31 said:

No, let's not pump the breaks.  6% of rookie receivers since 2010 had over 50 receptions.  77% have had under 20.  The question at hand and what I'm pointing out is how often rookie receivers have significant first year impacts and whether or not we should have drafted a receiver to help Rodgers for this year. 

They don't.

Especially in years without a preseason. 

I’m okay that the team didn’t draft a wr high and liked the Love pick.

With that said, playing contrarians, using just the barometer of 50 receptions is misleading. Context like team depth, special teams value, round drafted is missing. Someone like Laviska Shenault probably could have been a Deebo Samuel for us and gotten 5 touches a game by the end of season and been a valuable asset in a playoff run. We are a tweaked ankle away from giving Malik Taylor major run.

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Lazard was the only WR not named Adams I had any real hopes/expectations for heading into the season.  If week 1 MVS shows up every week, that will be a huge boost for the offense, and is certainly more than could have been hoped for from any rookie WR.  If week 1 MVS can show up every week with better hands, that would be even better.

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Given that they put St. Brown on IR without anyone signing in his place and didn't do the same for Lane Taylor, I'd guess that the injury will be closer to three weeks and they wanted to start the clock. Like I said, just a guess, though.

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