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Packers 2020 WR Corps

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On 9/18/2020 at 10:37 AM, Outpost31 said:

I'm mostly just pointing out how it wasn't a terrible decision to skip a WR this year in light of COVID-19.  Jeudy, Lamb, etc have higher potential in the long run, but this year?  I don't think any rookie receiver is going to eclipse MVS's numbers this year.

Last year, 59 receptions was the rookie high.
2018 the high was 64.
2017 the high was 62.
2016 it was Michael Thomas at 92, then second place of 65.
2015 it was 72.

I'm just trying to dispel the notion that rookie receivers come right in and have immediate impacts.  These highs are HIGHS.  Meaning, for every 59, 64, 62, 92, 72 reception season, you get 20 some who have 5-20 receptions. 

Since 2010, 36 rookie receivers had over 50 receptions. 
459 rookie receivers had under 20 receptions.

That's 6% of rookie receivers over 50 receptions.
78% under 20. 

 

Lamb and Jeudy appear to both be very, very pro ready.  They run great routes and have a ton of confidence.  Not like we had a shot at them, but they look to be special players right away.

MVS is different, and maybe in a good way.  His stats look better than his film this year as he's left a ton of plays on the field.  Which should frighten the league.  He's gaining confidence, Rodgers is feeding him and he's gonna get better and better.

Hindsight?  This year's Jeudy or Lamb versus this year's MVS?  To me it's a draw or maybe slight edge to MVS.  But I'd sure like to have either one of Jeudy or Lamb on our roster.  I think highly of both of them.

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Just now, vegas492 said:

Lamb and Jeudy appear to both be very, very pro ready.  They run great routes and have a ton of confidence.  Not like we had a shot at them, but they look to be special players right away.

MVS is different, and maybe in a good way.  His stats look better than his film this year as he's left a ton of plays on the field.  Which should frighten the league.  He's gaining confidence, Rodgers is feeding him and he's gonna get better and better.

Hindsight?  This year's Jeudy or Lamb versus this year's MVS?  To me it's a draw or maybe slight edge to MVS.  But I'd sure like to have either one of Jeudy or Lamb on our roster.  I think highly of both of them.

I still take MVS and ESB over Jeudy/Lamb if draft capital  remains the same. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I still take MVS and ESB over Jeudy/Lamb if draft capital  remains the same. 

 

If we had a shot at Jeudy or Lamb in the first, I would have had zero concern taking either one of them.

They are exactly the guys you want at WR in the first.  Route runners with confidence and collegiate production.  And enough speed with their size.

MVS is the perfect guy to take later.  Physical gifts but raw.  Sometimes that scratch off hits, many times it doesn't.  But that shouldn't stop you from buying that scratcher every year.

To me, the draft capital was right for all four of those players.  We just didn't have a shot at two of them.

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5 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

If we had a shot at Jeudy or Lamb in the first, I would have had zero concern taking either one of them.

They are exactly the guys you want at WR in the first.  Route runners with confidence and collegiate production.  And enough speed with their size.

MVS is the perfect guy to take later.  Physical gifts but raw.  Sometimes that scratch off hits, many times it doesn't.  But that shouldn't stop you from buying that scratcher every year.

To me, the draft capital was right for all four of those players.  We just didn't have a shot at two of them.

Draft capital for a receiver is never right in the top 20 unless there’s literally no other player with a top 20 grade.  Especially considering the NFL is loaded with elite WR talent drafted in the second round all the way down to undrafted.

How many 2nd - undrafted quarterbacks are among the best in the league?  Probably 10%.
 

How many 2nd - undrafted EDGE rushers? Probably 10%.
 

Etc.

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8 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

If we had a shot at Jeudy or Lamb in the first, I would have had zero concern taking either one of them.

Absolutely!

On so many levels they'd have value for the Packers. There's no one on the roster to replace Adams  after 2021. Both of these guys could replace him.

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2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Draft capital for a receiver is never right in the top 20 unless there’s literally no other player with a top 20 grade.  Especially considering the NFL is loaded with elite WR talent drafted in the second round all the way down to undrafted.

How many 2nd - undrafted quarterbacks are among the best in the league?  Probably 10%.
 

How many 2nd - undrafted EDGE rushers? Probably 10%.
 

Etc.

No doubt.  But if you need a WR and in the first round you've got Jeudy or Lamb staring you in the face, it's a fine call to make.  They were pro-ready.

And that takes absolutely nothing away from MVS.  I love taking fliers on guys like him later in the draft.

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6 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Absolutely!

On so many levels they'd have value for the Packers. There's no one on the roster to replace Adams  after 2021. Both of these guys could replace him.

I totally get the point that Outpost is making.  And he's right.  QB/EDGE/CB....all are probably more important in the first than WR.  You can find good WR's later.  The league is full of them.

For this year, I just felt like the two guys mentioned were very pro ready.  But if you are set at those other positions and really needed a WR, those two are easy picks to make.  You feel great about them.

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On 9/18/2020 at 5:03 PM, Outpost31 said:

Because of the people who insisted we needed to draft a receiver for this year.

You're absolutely right, we didn't need to draft a WR for this year. We kinda needed to draft one for the future because (will have to in 2021), and we needed to sign one for this year - we did, and he opted out unfortunately. 

Nothing @Outpost31 is saying is wrong. It's a little argumentative but not wrong lol

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Just now, JBURGE said:

You're absolutely right, we didn't need to draft a WR for this year. We kinda needed to draft one for the future because (will have to in 2021), and we needed to sign one for this year - we did, and he opted out unfortunately. 

Nothing @Outpost31 is saying is wrong. It's a little argumentative but not wrong lol

MVS is in a contract year next year.  We don't need a WR for 2021, either.  Those balls he dropped in his third year he's going to be catching in his contract year.  He's going to be catching everything to the tune of 90 receptions, 13 yards per catch and double digit receptions next year. 

The development is clearly there and I don't know why I'm the only one who sees it.  This crap is so predictable in the NFL.  You can look at every receiver in the league and see they take off in year 3 or year 4. 

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18 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:
42 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

You're absolutely right, we didn't need to draft a WR for this year. We kinda needed to draft one for the future because (will have to in 2021), and we needed to sign one for this year - we did, and he opted out unfortunately. 

Nothing @Outpost31 is saying is wrong. It's a little argumentative but not wrong lol

MVS is in a contract year next year.  We don't need a WR for 2021, either.  Those balls he dropped in his third year he's going to be catching in his contract year.  He's going to be catching everything to the tune of 90 receptions, 13 yards per catch and double digit receptions next year. 

The development is clearly there and I don't know why I'm the only one who sees it.  This crap is so predictable in the NFL.  You can look at every receiver in the league and see they take off in year 3 or year 4. 

So right now it's looking like we will be moving on from EQ (projection) after this or next year. We will see on Lazard. We will also see on MVS - if he has an amazing year next year, do we want to pay him $10m+ a year? If he doesn't, we will simply move on. We also have Funchess for 2021, though he would cost nothing to cut. 

We will likely need to target WR in the 2021 draft for the future. 2022 and beyond. Adams will be 29. I don't see the next WR1 on this roster, and that's fine, but like you said if it takes 3-4 years to get one, better start looking. 

We have bigger needs and I'm not going to be upset if we don't take a WR early. 

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Just now, JBURGE said:

So right now it's looking like we will be moving on from EQ (projection) after this or next year. We will see on Lazard. We will also see on MVS - if he has an amazing year next year, do we want to pay him $10m+ a year? If he doesn't, we will simply move on. We also have Funchess for 2021, though he would cost nothing to cut. 

We will likely need to target WR in the 2021 draft for the future. 2022 and beyond. Adams will be 29. I don't see the next WR1 on this roster, and that's fine, but like you said if it takes 3-4 years to get one, better start looking. 

We have bigger needs and I'm not going to be upset if we don't take a WR early. 

32nd overall will be a perfect spot to take Love's #1 receiver.

Rodgers will do a good job breaking him in his rookie year.  By his second year, he'll be a great option behind Adams and MVS, ahead of Lazard. 

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5 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:
10 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

So right now it's looking like we will be moving on from EQ (projection) after this or next year. We will see on Lazard. We will also see on MVS - if he has an amazing year next year, do we want to pay him $10m+ a year? If he doesn't, we will simply move on. We also have Funchess for 2021, though he would cost nothing to cut. 

We will likely need to target WR in the 2021 draft for the future. 2022 and beyond. Adams will be 29. I don't see the next WR1 on this roster, and that's fine, but like you said if it takes 3-4 years to get one, better start looking. 

We have bigger needs and I'm not going to be upset if we don't take a WR early. 

32nd overall will be a perfect spot to take Love's #1 receiver.

Rodgers will do a good job breaking him in his rookie year.  By his second year, he'll be a great option behind Adams and MVS, ahead of Lazard. 

Fine with me. I don't think this year is a good year to double dip late with COVID, and because we will likely have MVS Lazard and EQ, so having a of middling guys is kinda meh. Would love to take one in the top 64 this year and then double dip late in 2022

Once again next year I am hoping for DT or OT next year with a high pick, or priority FA. 

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The problem wasn't skipping a WR in the draft. The problem will more likely be not adressing the ILB position. When I see how Queen is playing already in Baltimore and then see how a mediocre Offense is marching Down the field against our weak run D# I get a little sick. 

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16 minutes ago, AustrianPacker said:

The problem wasn't skipping a WR in the draft. The problem will more likely be not adressing the ILB position. When I see how Queen is playing already in Baltimore and then see how a mediocre Offense is marching Down the field against our weak run D# I get a little sick. 

Wish I could agree with this, but I can't.

It isn't about the player, it is the position.

Martinez is tearing it up in New York, after being a whipping boy here.

Kirksey has a poor PFF score.

Our scheme is not the Baltimore scheme, for ILB's.  Until that changes, it won't really matter who is in our middle.  I hold out hope for Kirksey because I think he's gonna be a huge pest in the middle against the passing game, where Martinez simply was not.

But make no mistake, if Queen were here, we'd be lamenting that pick right now.

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On 9/21/2020 at 9:55 AM, Outpost31 said:

I still take MVS and ESB over Jeudy/Lamb if draft capital  remains the same. 

 

I like ESB, but the guy hasn't played since 2018.

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