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TheOnlyThing

Packers 2020 WR Corps

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It’s 2020, not 2000 or earlier.  In 1999, Diggs would not have made it in the NFL.  Neither would Thielen.  I bet you can track this, too. I bet from 1970-1995 or somewhere in there you’d find maybe two receivers who weren’t drafted that ever had great careers or even great games.  Now?  Half the top receivers in the NFL are 3rd-undrafted and the first round picks who are good aren’t noticeably better than the ones drafted in the second.  Drafting a WR in round one in the year 2016-now reminds me of those people who buy a 90,000 dollar car at 35 years old but they’re living in their parents house.  Sure it’s nice to have that 90,000 dollar car, but maybe you should use that money on your own place first.

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14 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

We did that with Adams missing 2 games, Lazard missing one...

And EQ missing 4 :)

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I took a look at receivers and how easy it was to get a good one in each decade.  We will call 400 career receptions a good receiver.  


First Round Receivers drafted 1970-1979
15/24 (63%) had over 100 career catches
11/24 (46%) had over 200
9/24 (38%) had over 300
6/24 had over 400
3/24 had over 500
1/24 had over 700 (James Lofton 6th overall)

2nd-undrafted receivers drafted 1970-1979
58/194 (30%) had over 100
28/194 (14%) had over 200
18/194 (9%) had over 300
12 had over 400
8 had over 500
2 had over 600
1 had over 800 (Largent)

25% chance of getting a good receiver in the 1st round in the 70s.
6% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted during the 70s.
Obviously, this decade, you needed to use a first round pick to solidify the position if you wanted a realistic shot.

1st round receivers drafted 1980-1989
24/31 (77%) had over 100
19/31 had over 200
16/31 (51%) had over 300
10/31 had over 400
6 had over 700
Rice at the top with 1549

2nd-undrafted receivers drafted 1980-1989
67/226 (29%) had over 100
42/226 had over 200
25/226 (11%) had over 300
18/226 had over 400

8% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted
32% chance of getting a good receiver in the 1st round

1st round receivers 1990-1999
26/30 (87%) had over 100
20/30 had over 200
19/30 (63%) had over 300
16/30 had over 400
12/30 had over 500
Marvin Harrison at the top with 1102

2nd-undrafted 1990-1999
73/213 had over 100
47/213 had over 200
41/213 had over 300
24/213 had over 400
Terrell Owens/Isaac Bruce/Hines Ward at the top (3rd, 2nd, 3rd) with over 1000 each

53% chance of getting a good receiver in round one in the 90s.
11% chance of getting a good receiver in 2-undrafted in the 90s.
This is coincidentally the time the NFL started to realize offense sells.

1st round receivers in 2000-2009
35/43 had over 100
30/43 had over 200
22/43 had over 300
11/43 had over 400

2nd-undrafted receivers in 2000-2009
86/228 had over 100
49/228 had over 200
32/228 had over 300
22/228 had over 400
Boldin/Steve Smith at the top with 1000 each (2nd, 3rd)

26% chance of getting a good receiver in the first round (first big drop)
10% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted rounds

Alright, here’s where I get to my point.  

From 1970-2009, the highest number of 2nd-undrafted receivers to eclipse 100 receptions in a career was 86 in the 2000s.  73 in the 90’s.  67 in the 80’s.  58 in the 70’s.  

Currently, 64 players drafted from 2010-2019 have 100 career receptions.  

Miller, Hardy, Sharpe have 90.  7 more are already up to 80.  14 more are past 70.  

17 players in this decade have had 100 receptions in a season.  

Since I can’t quite judge the decade now on careers, I’ll just do single seasons.

There have been 65 seasons from 2nd-undrafted receivers over 70 receptions.  That’s out of 506 seasons.  

There have been 41 seasons over 70 receptions out of first round receivers.  That’s out of 150 seasons.  

13% good seasons out of 2nd-undrafted.
27% good seasons out of 1st rounders.

 


So far in their careers,

25 first round receivers (lowest of any decade because GMs are starting to get it)
20 of those 25 are over 100 career receptions.  
With the exception of maybe Ross, Treadwell, Doctson, White and Coleman, they’re all gonna be over 100 career receptions.  

45/124 2nd-undrafted receivers are already over 100 career receptions.   
12 are already over 400.  Diggs, Robinson, Jones, Crowder, Stills, Lockett, Hill, Brown, Boyd, Shepard, Schuster, Kupp, Godwin, Golladay, Conley, Westbrook, Samual, Kirk, Jones, Sutton, Gallup…

All are likely to pass the 400 mark.

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Just looking at this year, here are the rankings in receptions for rookie receivers as far as where they were drafted:

17th overall
42nd overall
22nd
33rd
15th
173rd
49th
25th
34th
undrafted
128th
92nd
168th
214th
166th

Then you look at sacks. 

31 first round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks.
6 second round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks.
7 third round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks.
5 fourth round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks.
2 fifth to undrafted round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks.

So one round of EDGE/DL has more players who eclipsed 40 career sacks than every other round plus undrafted players combined.

38/102 defensive backs drafted in the first round since 2011 have had 10 or more interceptions.
56/485 2nd-undrafted defensive backs drafted since 2011 have had 10 or more interceptions.

Considering how hard it is to find talent at the other positions and considering how easy it is to find talent at WR, you'd have to be an absolute moron to use a first round pick on a receiver. 

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Fulgham was drafted, by the Lions.  6th, maybe?  We picked him up after they released him.  I think we released him within two weeks.  Really good pickup by the Eagles.  

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Would sure be fun if EQ could emerge as a useful 2-way guy.  From the little clip, he didn't look that much top-heavy or built-up as I imagined he might have become after two years.   I just recall him being a pretty willing, if unrefined, blocker back in his rookie year.  

Will be curious to see how many weeks it takes until he's actually activated (if any), and then how his usage compares to Taylor and Shepherd for snaps.  

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11 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I took a look at receivers and how easy it was to get a good one in each decade.  We will call 400 career receptions a good receiver.  


First Round Receivers drafted 1970-1979
15/24 (63%) had over 100 career catches
11/24 (46%) had over 200
9/24 (38%) had over 300
6/24 had over 400
3/24 had over 500
1/24 had over 700 (James Lofton 6th overall)

2nd-undrafted receivers drafted 1970-1979
58/194 (30%) had over 100
28/194 (14%) had over 200
18/194 (9%) had over 300
12 had over 400
8 had over 500
2 had over 600
1 had over 800 (Largent)

25% chance of getting a good receiver in the 1st round in the 70s.
6% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted during the 70s.
Obviously, this decade, you needed to use a first round pick to solidify the position if you wanted a realistic shot.

1st round receivers drafted 1980-1989
24/31 (77%) had over 100
19/31 had over 200
16/31 (51%) had over 300
10/31 had over 400
6 had over 700
Rice at the top with 1549

2nd-undrafted receivers drafted 1980-1989
67/226 (29%) had over 100
42/226 had over 200
25/226 (11%) had over 300
18/226 had over 400

8% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted
32% chance of getting a good receiver in the 1st round

1st round receivers 1990-1999
26/30 (87%) had over 100
20/30 had over 200
19/30 (63%) had over 300
16/30 had over 400
12/30 had over 500
Marvin Harrison at the top with 1102

2nd-undrafted 1990-1999
73/213 had over 100
47/213 had over 200
41/213 had over 300
24/213 had over 400
Terrell Owens/Isaac Bruce/Hines Ward at the top (3rd, 2nd, 3rd) with over 1000 each

53% chance of getting a good receiver in round one in the 90s.
11% chance of getting a good receiver in 2-undrafted in the 90s.
This is coincidentally the time the NFL started to realize offense sells.

1st round receivers in 2000-2009
35/43 had over 100
30/43 had over 200
22/43 had over 300
11/43 had over 400

2nd-undrafted receivers in 2000-2009
86/228 had over 100
49/228 had over 200
32/228 had over 300
22/228 had over 400
Boldin/Steve Smith at the top with 1000 each (2nd, 3rd)

26% chance of getting a good receiver in the first round (first big drop)
10% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted rounds

Alright, here’s where I get to my point.  

From 1970-2009, the highest number of 2nd-undrafted receivers to eclipse 100 receptions in a career was 86 in the 2000s.  73 in the 90’s.  67 in the 80’s.  58 in the 70’s.  

Currently, 64 players drafted from 2010-2019 have 100 career receptions.  

Miller, Hardy, Sharpe have 90.  7 more are already up to 80.  14 more are past 70.  

17 players in this decade have had 100 receptions in a season.  

Since I can’t quite judge the decade now on careers, I’ll just do single seasons.

There have been 65 seasons from 2nd-undrafted receivers over 70 receptions.  That’s out of 506 seasons.  

There have been 41 seasons over 70 receptions out of first round receivers.  That’s out of 150 seasons.  

13% good seasons out of 2nd-undrafted.
27% good seasons out of 1st rounders.

 


So far in their careers,

25 first round receivers (lowest of any decade because GMs are starting to get it)
20 of those 25 are over 100 career receptions.  
With the exception of maybe Ross, Treadwell, Doctson, White and Coleman, they’re all gonna be over 100 career receptions.  

45/124 2nd-undrafted receivers are already over 100 career receptions.   
12 are already over 400.  Diggs, Robinson, Jones, Crowder, Stills, Lockett, Hill, Brown, Boyd, Shepard, Schuster, Kupp, Godwin, Golladay, Conley, Westbrook, Samual, Kirk, Jones, Sutton, Gallup…

All are likely to pass the 400 mark.

I feel like you're charting the expansion of the passing game and rookie contract duration rather than the ease of drafting a good receiver. 

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2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I feel like you're charting the expansion of the passing game and rookie contract duration rather than the ease of drafting a good receiver. 

Yes, I realized that too late and already had all this data compiled so shut up. 

But really, honestly...

Wes Welker, Danny Ammendola, Doug Baldwin, Cole Beasley, Adam Thielen, Adam Humphries, Robby Anderson, Allen Hurns, Taylor Gabriel...

All of those players were undrafted.  Do you see any of them making it in the NFL before the Colts cried about the Patriots man handling their receivers? 

2003 playoff game.  Patriots destroyed the Colts.  Colts cried, Polian cried, ILLEGAL CONTACT was created. 

Probably the single greatest change to the passing game this century.  That is of course an understatement because there have been about five bigger changes since that make a tiny little guy like Beasley able to play in the NFL when just twenty years ago he would be literally murdered on the field. 

Wes Welker comes into the league in 2004 and does nothing in his first year as teams don't really know what to do with the new illegal contact thing and how easy it makes it for receivers.  Bill Belichick uses Polian's crying against him, acquires Wes Welker and Josh McDaniels, who is the first to understand how the new passing league will work, and Brady goes from a consistent nobody QB to the alleged greatest QB of all time. 

Thanks to Wes Welker and Randy Moss and Josh McDaniels. 

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18 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

It’s 2020, not 2000 or earlier.  In 1999, Diggs would not have made it in the NFL.  Neither would Thielen.  I bet you can track this, too. I bet from 1970-1995 or somewhere in there you’d find maybe two receivers who weren’t drafted that ever had great careers or even great games.  Now?  Half the top receivers in the NFL are 3rd-undrafted and the first round picks who are good aren’t noticeably better than the ones drafted in the second.  Drafting a WR in round one in the year 2016-now reminds me of those people who buy a 90,000 dollar car at 35 years old but they’re living in their parents house.  Sure it’s nice to have that 90,000 dollar car, but maybe you should use that money on your own place first.

They are living the dream?

 

🤣

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