MacReady Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 It’s 2020, not 2000 or earlier. In 1999, Diggs would not have made it in the NFL. Neither would Thielen. I bet you can track this, too. I bet from 1970-1995 or somewhere in there you’d find maybe two receivers who weren’t drafted that ever had great careers or even great games. Now? Half the top receivers in the NFL are 3rd-undrafted and the first round picks who are good aren’t noticeably better than the ones drafted in the second. Drafting a WR in round one in the year 2016-now reminds me of those people who buy a 90,000 dollar car at 35 years old but they’re living in their parents house. Sure it’s nice to have that 90,000 dollar car, but maybe you should use that money on your own place first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: We did that with Adams missing 2 games, Lazard missing one... And EQ missing 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 I took a look at receivers and how easy it was to get a good one in each decade. We will call 400 career receptions a good receiver. First Round Receivers drafted 1970-1979 15/24 (63%) had over 100 career catches 11/24 (46%) had over 200 9/24 (38%) had over 300 6/24 had over 400 3/24 had over 500 1/24 had over 700 (James Lofton 6th overall) 2nd-undrafted receivers drafted 1970-1979 58/194 (30%) had over 100 28/194 (14%) had over 200 18/194 (9%) had over 300 12 had over 400 8 had over 500 2 had over 600 1 had over 800 (Largent) 25% chance of getting a good receiver in the 1st round in the 70s. 6% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted during the 70s. Obviously, this decade, you needed to use a first round pick to solidify the position if you wanted a realistic shot. 1st round receivers drafted 1980-1989 24/31 (77%) had over 100 19/31 had over 200 16/31 (51%) had over 300 10/31 had over 400 6 had over 700 Rice at the top with 1549 2nd-undrafted receivers drafted 1980-1989 67/226 (29%) had over 100 42/226 had over 200 25/226 (11%) had over 300 18/226 had over 400 8% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted 32% chance of getting a good receiver in the 1st round 1st round receivers 1990-1999 26/30 (87%) had over 100 20/30 had over 200 19/30 (63%) had over 300 16/30 had over 400 12/30 had over 500 Marvin Harrison at the top with 1102 2nd-undrafted 1990-1999 73/213 had over 100 47/213 had over 200 41/213 had over 300 24/213 had over 400 Terrell Owens/Isaac Bruce/Hines Ward at the top (3rd, 2nd, 3rd) with over 1000 each 53% chance of getting a good receiver in round one in the 90s. 11% chance of getting a good receiver in 2-undrafted in the 90s. This is coincidentally the time the NFL started to realize offense sells. 1st round receivers in 2000-2009 35/43 had over 100 30/43 had over 200 22/43 had over 300 11/43 had over 400 2nd-undrafted receivers in 2000-2009 86/228 had over 100 49/228 had over 200 32/228 had over 300 22/228 had over 400 Boldin/Steve Smith at the top with 1000 each (2nd, 3rd) 26% chance of getting a good receiver in the first round (first big drop) 10% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted rounds Alright, here’s where I get to my point. From 1970-2009, the highest number of 2nd-undrafted receivers to eclipse 100 receptions in a career was 86 in the 2000s. 73 in the 90’s. 67 in the 80’s. 58 in the 70’s. Currently, 64 players drafted from 2010-2019 have 100 career receptions. Miller, Hardy, Sharpe have 90. 7 more are already up to 80. 14 more are past 70. 17 players in this decade have had 100 receptions in a season. Since I can’t quite judge the decade now on careers, I’ll just do single seasons. There have been 65 seasons from 2nd-undrafted receivers over 70 receptions. That’s out of 506 seasons. There have been 41 seasons over 70 receptions out of first round receivers. That’s out of 150 seasons. 13% good seasons out of 2nd-undrafted. 27% good seasons out of 1st rounders. So far in their careers, 25 first round receivers (lowest of any decade because GMs are starting to get it) 20 of those 25 are over 100 career receptions. With the exception of maybe Ross, Treadwell, Doctson, White and Coleman, they’re all gonna be over 100 career receptions. 45/124 2nd-undrafted receivers are already over 100 career receptions. 12 are already over 400. Diggs, Robinson, Jones, Crowder, Stills, Lockett, Hill, Brown, Boyd, Shepard, Schuster, Kupp, Godwin, Golladay, Conley, Westbrook, Samual, Kirk, Jones, Sutton, Gallup… All are likely to pass the 400 mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Just looking at this year, here are the rankings in receptions for rookie receivers as far as where they were drafted: 17th overall 42nd overall 22nd 33rd 15th 173rd 49th 25th 34th undrafted 128th 92nd 168th 214th 166th Then you look at sacks. 31 first round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks. 6 second round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks. 7 third round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks. 5 fourth round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks. 2 fifth to undrafted round players drafted from 2011-2020 have had 40 or more career sacks. So one round of EDGE/DL has more players who eclipsed 40 career sacks than every other round plus undrafted players combined. 38/102 defensive backs drafted in the first round since 2011 have had 10 or more interceptions. 56/485 2nd-undrafted defensive backs drafted since 2011 have had 10 or more interceptions. Considering how hard it is to find talent at the other positions and considering how easy it is to find talent at WR, you'd have to be an absolute moron to use a first round pick on a receiver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Fulgham was drafted, by the Lions. 6th, maybe? We picked him up after they released him. I think we released him within two weeks. Really good pickup by the Eagles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Would sure be fun if EQ could emerge as a useful 2-way guy. From the little clip, he didn't look that much top-heavy or built-up as I imagined he might have become after two years. I just recall him being a pretty willing, if unrefined, blocker back in his rookie year. Will be curious to see how many weeks it takes until he's actually activated (if any), and then how his usage compares to Taylor and Shepherd for snaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 11 hours ago, Outpost31 said: I took a look at receivers and how easy it was to get a good one in each decade. We will call 400 career receptions a good receiver. First Round Receivers drafted 1970-1979 15/24 (63%) had over 100 career catches 11/24 (46%) had over 200 9/24 (38%) had over 300 6/24 had over 400 3/24 had over 500 1/24 had over 700 (James Lofton 6th overall) 2nd-undrafted receivers drafted 1970-1979 58/194 (30%) had over 100 28/194 (14%) had over 200 18/194 (9%) had over 300 12 had over 400 8 had over 500 2 had over 600 1 had over 800 (Largent) 25% chance of getting a good receiver in the 1st round in the 70s. 6% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted during the 70s. Obviously, this decade, you needed to use a first round pick to solidify the position if you wanted a realistic shot. 1st round receivers drafted 1980-1989 24/31 (77%) had over 100 19/31 had over 200 16/31 (51%) had over 300 10/31 had over 400 6 had over 700 Rice at the top with 1549 2nd-undrafted receivers drafted 1980-1989 67/226 (29%) had over 100 42/226 had over 200 25/226 (11%) had over 300 18/226 had over 400 8% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted 32% chance of getting a good receiver in the 1st round 1st round receivers 1990-1999 26/30 (87%) had over 100 20/30 had over 200 19/30 (63%) had over 300 16/30 had over 400 12/30 had over 500 Marvin Harrison at the top with 1102 2nd-undrafted 1990-1999 73/213 had over 100 47/213 had over 200 41/213 had over 300 24/213 had over 400 Terrell Owens/Isaac Bruce/Hines Ward at the top (3rd, 2nd, 3rd) with over 1000 each 53% chance of getting a good receiver in round one in the 90s. 11% chance of getting a good receiver in 2-undrafted in the 90s. This is coincidentally the time the NFL started to realize offense sells. 1st round receivers in 2000-2009 35/43 had over 100 30/43 had over 200 22/43 had over 300 11/43 had over 400 2nd-undrafted receivers in 2000-2009 86/228 had over 100 49/228 had over 200 32/228 had over 300 22/228 had over 400 Boldin/Steve Smith at the top with 1000 each (2nd, 3rd) 26% chance of getting a good receiver in the first round (first big drop) 10% chance of getting a good receiver in the 2nd-undrafted rounds Alright, here’s where I get to my point. From 1970-2009, the highest number of 2nd-undrafted receivers to eclipse 100 receptions in a career was 86 in the 2000s. 73 in the 90’s. 67 in the 80’s. 58 in the 70’s. Currently, 64 players drafted from 2010-2019 have 100 career receptions. Miller, Hardy, Sharpe have 90. 7 more are already up to 80. 14 more are past 70. 17 players in this decade have had 100 receptions in a season. Since I can’t quite judge the decade now on careers, I’ll just do single seasons. There have been 65 seasons from 2nd-undrafted receivers over 70 receptions. That’s out of 506 seasons. There have been 41 seasons over 70 receptions out of first round receivers. That’s out of 150 seasons. 13% good seasons out of 2nd-undrafted. 27% good seasons out of 1st rounders. So far in their careers, 25 first round receivers (lowest of any decade because GMs are starting to get it) 20 of those 25 are over 100 career receptions. With the exception of maybe Ross, Treadwell, Doctson, White and Coleman, they’re all gonna be over 100 career receptions. 45/124 2nd-undrafted receivers are already over 100 career receptions. 12 are already over 400. Diggs, Robinson, Jones, Crowder, Stills, Lockett, Hill, Brown, Boyd, Shepard, Schuster, Kupp, Godwin, Golladay, Conley, Westbrook, Samual, Kirk, Jones, Sutton, Gallup… All are likely to pass the 400 mark. I feel like you're charting the expansion of the passing game and rookie contract duration rather than the ease of drafting a good receiver. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: I feel like you're charting the expansion of the passing game and rookie contract duration rather than the ease of drafting a good receiver. Yes, I realized that too late and already had all this data compiled so shut up. But really, honestly... Wes Welker, Danny Ammendola, Doug Baldwin, Cole Beasley, Adam Thielen, Adam Humphries, Robby Anderson, Allen Hurns, Taylor Gabriel... All of those players were undrafted. Do you see any of them making it in the NFL before the Colts cried about the Patriots man handling their receivers? 2003 playoff game. Patriots destroyed the Colts. Colts cried, Polian cried, ILLEGAL CONTACT was created. Probably the single greatest change to the passing game this century. That is of course an understatement because there have been about five bigger changes since that make a tiny little guy like Beasley able to play in the NFL when just twenty years ago he would be literally murdered on the field. Wes Welker comes into the league in 2004 and does nothing in his first year as teams don't really know what to do with the new illegal contact thing and how easy it makes it for receivers. Bill Belichick uses Polian's crying against him, acquires Wes Welker and Josh McDaniels, who is the first to understand how the new passing league will work, and Brady goes from a consistent nobody QB to the alleged greatest QB of all time. Thanks to Wes Welker and Randy Moss and Josh McDaniels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 18 hours ago, Outpost31 said: It’s 2020, not 2000 or earlier. In 1999, Diggs would not have made it in the NFL. Neither would Thielen. I bet you can track this, too. I bet from 1970-1995 or somewhere in there you’d find maybe two receivers who weren’t drafted that ever had great careers or even great games. Now? Half the top receivers in the NFL are 3rd-undrafted and the first round picks who are good aren’t noticeably better than the ones drafted in the second. Drafting a WR in round one in the year 2016-now reminds me of those people who buy a 90,000 dollar car at 35 years old but they’re living in their parents house. Sure it’s nice to have that 90,000 dollar car, but maybe you should use that money on your own place first. They are living the dream? 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I just realized all of our WRs will be Free Agents after 2021 (pending Lazard ERFA contract next year). How would YOU structure this group going forward? Who between Lazard (ERFA), EQ and MVS gets a 2nd contract? Lazard, to me, is the obvious answer. Do you extend Adams? Will Funchess be on our team in 2021? If I had to guess, I'd say that Adams and Lazard are on our 2022 club for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 If Rodgers is shipped out after 2021 (not a totally unrealistic scenario) I have to wonder how the team will handle the WR's. Do they give Adams another big payday, or will they be looking to go forward with the young guys and Love? I think the may go with the latter option, especially if they do spend some draft capital at WR in this next draft. It's not likely that a newly promoted Love would get nearly as much out of Adams as Rodgers does, so how much is GB willing to pay Adams in that scenario? Imagine a team like Cleveland trading for Rodgers in 2022 (the Mayfield contract expires after 2021), and also signing Adams as a UFA. Talk about an instant upgrade for that offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeresAGuy Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Imagine the Bulls trading Michael Jordan for three first rounders even at the tail end of his time with the Bulls. Thats how silly it sounds to trade Rodgers even with one year left on his deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Do you expect Rodgers to play out his current contract in GB? I don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeresAGuy Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I am certainly worried he wont with the Love draft pick, but with how Rodgers is playing, if he continues playing at this level, you eat that draft pick even if it hurts. Play Love his 5th year option and hope for the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Oh no. This is the WR thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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