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2020 Offense Outlook


incognito_man

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17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

We had a really good offense in the first quarter. We had a horrific offense in the second quarter. We had a good offense in the third quarter. We had an average offense in the 4th quarter.  

Now that I can understand and pretty much agree with your assessment.

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47 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Now that I can understand and pretty much agree with your assessment.

I also think that we might regress a bit running the ball due to the OL not being as strong, while improve passing the ball. At the same time, I think we are gonna run more running plays than last year, and fewer passing plays.  Which sucks because it should probably be the opposite.  But the PA passing plays as a result will really really pop and will be what people remember, not the 3 yard gains on 2nd and 8.

I think that will make the offense "appear" better but not actually necessarily be better in terms of points per drive or ppg.

 

As far as the quarter thing... that was something hugely infuriating to a lot of fans.  It sucks to slowly get worse as the game goes on.  I think there is a pretty substantial gap between how people "think" this offense performed last year, like they were league average, and how they actually performed, which was in the top 1/3 or top 1/4 depending on the metric.  The 8th ranked offense in points/drive is really really tough to improve upon. 

The only significant upgrades made on the offense is replacing Graham with an unknown, and adding a pu pu platter at WR to replace Allison.

 

Lastly, nobody wants to talk about this, but there's always a good chance rodgers, Jones or Adams has an injury which either causes him to be stunted or miss games.  Davante missed 4 games last year, Rodgers missed 0, Jones missed 0.  Everyone else on the team was also ridiculously healthy.  I feel a lot better about Jones missing games with Dillon on board.  Rodgers missing games is still a death sentence in terms of games won, even with Love on board.

 

 

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From Andy Herman  (who may or may not be a moron)

5 personnel groups I’m excited about in 2020:

Adams, Funchess, Sternberger, Deguara, Jones
Adams, Dillon, Sternberger, Deguara, Lewis
Jones, Dillon, Sternberger, Adams, Lazard
Adams, Lazard, EQ, Sternberger, Jones
Adams, MVS, EQ, Ervin, Jones

Edited by Shanedorf
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13 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

From Andy Herman  (who may or may not be a moron)

5 personnel groups I’m excited about in 2020:

Adams, Funchess, Sternberger, Deguara, Jones
Adams, Dillon, Sternberger, Deguara, Lewis
Jones, Dillon, Sternberger, Adams, Lazard
Adams, Lazard, EQ, Sternberger, Jones
Adams, MVS, EQ, Ervin, Jones

The bottom two aren't awful :/

 

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14 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

From Andy Herman  (who may or may not be a moron)

5 personnel groups I’m excited about in 2020:

Adams, Funchess, Sternberger, Deguara, Jones
Adams, Dillon, Sternberger, Deguara, Lewis
Jones, Dillon, Sternberger, Adams, Lazard
Adams, Lazard, EQ, Sternberger, Jones
Adams, MVS, EQ, Ervin, Jones

I think you could potentially see some pseudo jet-sweeps coming out of that personnel. EQ has had a ton of similar plays drawn up for him and both the college and pro level where he may not be receiving a hand-off but is getting a pitch.

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That last is the only one of the five with MVS in it. 

Will be interesting to see how many snaps he gets.  Play action sounds great; but with adams and a bunch of slowish TE/blocking-receivers, there aren't a lot of guys to punish a defense for biting on play action.  I'm guessing teams will much double Adams regardless, whether expecting run or not. 

But might MVS get some snaps with single-coverage, and with defenses relatively compressed?  He might surprise, get a few more snaps than expected, or than he got 2nd-half.  And maybe Rodgers won't miss him quite as often if he does sometimes get open downfield?  

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from Bill Huber at SI

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/packers-success-year-2-offense

Year 2 comments:

There is a growth-from-within precedent with the coaches most closely tied to LaFleur.

In Los Angeles, the Rams led the NFL in scoring in Year 1 under coach Sean McVay. In Year 2, the Rams finished second in scoring but scored 49 more points. Most importantly, they won two more regular-season games and reached the Super Bowl.

In San Francisco, the 49ers went from 20th in scoring in Year 1 under coach Kyle Shanahan to 21st in Year 2, even though quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo missed most of the season with a torn ACL. With Garoppolo back in action, the 49ers finished second in points in Year 3 under Shanahan and reached the Super Bowl.

In 2015 and 2016 in Atlanta, Shanahan was the offensive coordinator and LaFleur the quarterbacks coach. After finishing 21st in scoring in Year 1, the Falcons finished first in scoring, quarterback Matt Ryan won MVP and the Falcons reached the Super Bowl in Year 2.

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20 hours ago, Fox_NFLs_GG said:

I know no one is talking about this signing but it was a rather big signing back in January. The Packers signed Reggie Begelton. He was an all star in the CFL.

The Begelton video is fun.  Man that CFL field is so big and wide.  Heh heh, I wonder how Rodgers would fair in the CFL?  He'd be forced to make some throws inside the boundaries!  :):) 

A lot of the Begelton catches were not boundary things.  Might be an interesting slot guy.  Looks coordinated.  Doesn't look like he'd be a mauling run-blocker.  Would be a fun story if he made the team and had some success.  

I wonder how eager a guy like that is to make the practice squad?  Or if he'd rather go back to CFL assuming he doesn't make the roster?  

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Interesting 2nd-year notes, there, Shane.  Hope we see some of that improvement this year.  

Last year, the theory was that the offense would get better as the season progressed and guys got more used to the MLF offense.  I'm not sure I saw much sign of that kind of progress, though?  

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11 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The bottom two aren't awful :/

 

Come on man, this is the time for dreaming.  Admittedly, I wrote that and then went back and ....well those are not the five personnel groupings I personally would pick to be excited about next year, but hey who knows, somewhat stranger things have happened.

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Biggest question with Begelton is can he separate from NFL DBs from the slot.  He doesn't have the speed or size to be a deep threat outside unless he becomes an elite technician, and he's not especially quick.  But at the same time, I wouldn't say he's deficient in any of those categories either.  He was 6'1", 200 at his pro day, and he looks like he's probably playing at closer to 205 - 210 these days.  That's an NFL frame.  He's not fast, but he's fast enough that if he wins on his route running he'll be able to make some plays.  He's not super quick, but he's smart and the game played slow for him, so he finds ways to set up the moves he does have.  I'm betting he'll come out pretty strong playing against zone for the same reason, but if he can't get away from man it won't matter.  No reason to keep a 26 year old rookie around unless he can win right out of the gate.

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6 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

Biggest question with Begelton is can he separate from NFL DBs from the slot.  He doesn't have the speed or size to be a deep threat outside unless he becomes an elite technician, and he's not especially quick.  But at the same time, I wouldn't say he's deficient in any of those categories either.  He was 6'1", 200 at his pro day, and he looks like he's probably playing at closer to 205 - 210 these days.  That's an NFL frame.  He's not fast, but he's fast enough that if he wins on his route running he'll be able to make some plays.  He's not super quick, but he's smart and the game played slow for him, so he finds ways to set up the moves he does have.  I'm betting he'll come out pretty strong playing against zone for the same reason, but if he can't get away from man it won't matter.  No reason to keep a 26 year old rookie around unless he can win right out of the gate.

Taking another bite out of the apple to see if a player can help the team.  If he produces, fantastic .. if not, move on to another bite.

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