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incognito_man

2020 Offense Outlook

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6 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

Biggest question with Begelton is can he separate from NFL DBs from the slot.  He doesn't have the speed or size to be a deep threat outside unless he becomes an elite technician, and he's not especially quick.  But at the same time, I wouldn't say he's deficient in any of those categories either.  He was 6'1", 200 at his pro day, and he looks like he's probably playing at closer to 205 - 210 these days.  That's an NFL frame.  He's not fast, but he's fast enough that if he wins on his route running he'll be able to make some plays.  He's not super quick, but he's smart and the game played slow for him, so he finds ways to set up the moves he does have.  I'm betting he'll come out pretty strong playing against zone for the same reason, but if he can't get away from man it won't matter.  No reason to keep a 26 year old rookie around unless he can win right out of the gate.

I agree. He demonstrates some toughness and good hands, but I didn't see NFL level quickness, or burst. Jake Kumerow 2.0?

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Best trait about Begelton is his hunger.  He doesn't have the measureables of the "other" WR's on the roster.  But...I think just his presence is going to push the bottom of that depth chart.

My guess is that he will be a practice squad guy.  

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1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

Best trait about Begelton is his hunger.  He doesn't have the measureables of the "other" WR's on the roster.  But...I think just his presence is going to push the bottom of that depth chart.

My guess is that he will be a practice squad guy.  

Begelton's best was Lacy's worst

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Begelton has some legitimate talent.  I do love a good open field runner who has the feel to set up moves two or three in advance, and he's got the body control and strength to go through tackles even in the NFL.  In that way, he does remind me a lot of Kumerow; Kumerow's best attribute probably is his strength and balance after the catch.  The issue for Kumerow is at 6'4", 215 he just doesn't drop his hips or gear down very well.  He struggles to separate because even safeties can read his hips through his whole route.  Begelton shouldn't have these issues; he's not exactly Dante Hall out there but just being smaller in frame mitigates a lot of that.  

I just don't know that he does anything well enough to be worth a roster spot over the other end of the roster guys.  

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1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

Begelton has some legitimate talent.  I do love a good open field runner who has the feel to set up moves two or three in advance, and he's got the body control and strength to go through tackles even in the NFL.  In that way, he does remind me a lot of Kumerow; Kumerow's best attribute probably is his strength and balance after the catch.  The issue for Kumerow is at 6'4", 215 he just doesn't drop his hips or gear down very well.  He struggles to separate because even safeties can read his hips through his whole route.  Begelton shouldn't have these issues; he's not exactly Dante Hall out there but just being smaller in frame mitigates a lot of that.  

I just don't know that he does anything well enough to be worth a roster spot over the other end of the roster guys.  

I think you nailed it w/ Kumerow though. IF (and that's a big IF) there's a roster spot available for one of these two, I think they offer roughly the same thing and will be competing head to head for it. Begelton will have to showcase his ability to block to have a chance IMO. But both are older, have reached their ceilings already, types that are likely to never be spectacular at anything other than hopefully never being a huge liability.

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I really really hope Kumerow gets cut and then gets signed by the Bears. I would love to see the reaction from this board.

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20 hours ago, incognito_man said:

I think you nailed it w/ Kumerow though. IF (and that's a big IF) there's a roster spot available for one of these two, I think they offer roughly the same thing and will be competing head to head for it. Begelton will have to showcase his ability to block to have a chance IMO. But both are older, have reached their ceilings already, types that are likely to never be spectacular at anything other than hopefully never being a huge liability.

Given the video I was able to see of him, I think his toughness gives him a huge advantage in this area and he'll have no issues in this area. 

22 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

Begelton has some legitimate talent.  I do love a good open field runner who has the feel to set up moves two or three in advance, and he's got the body control and strength to go through tackles even in the NFL.  In that way, he does remind me a lot of Kumerow; Kumerow's best attribute probably is his strength and balance after the catch.  The issue for Kumerow is at 6'4", 215 he just doesn't drop his hips or gear down very well.  He struggles to separate because even safeties can read his hips through his whole route.  Begelton shouldn't have these issues; he's not exactly Dante Hall out there but just being smaller in frame mitigates a lot of that.  

I just don't know that he does anything well enough to be worth a roster spot over the other end of the roster guys.  

I think comparing him to Kumerow is comparing apples to bananas. Kumerow has three inches on the guy and more NFL experience. However, I'd give the upper hand to Begelton at this point in the game due to the fact that he's proven(at least in the CFL FWIW) to be a home-run hitter. You look at what tape is available and he's either getting behind dudes with subtle moves or he's just flying past them. 

What I saw, at least in highlight videos, is a guy that can break tackles very well with minimal effort. In particular, there was one TD scamper where the defender wrapped him up perfectly and Begelton just pushed the defender down with his left hand like it was nothing; dude didn't even break his stride - it's like the defender was a ghost. I can't see how this does not translate into a lack of play-strength when it comes to blocking and while he doesn't appear to have a quick burst, like Tyreek Hill, it doesn't seem to matter because he finds a way to negotiate traffic very quickly without having to slow down.

Admittedly, I am with @vegas492. He's a PS player because it doesn't look like he has an extra gear, but I'll definitely give him a puncher's chance at making the roster. 

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A little Friday Fluffery from packers.com.
Its not like you have something better to do for the next 2 minutes

 

 

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https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/offense-must-wrist-band-together

Tempo

The Packers were guilty of a league-worst 10 delay-of-game penalties last season. The league average was merely 4.06, according to NFLPenalties.com.

Two factors conspired against Green Bay: 
First is the verbose nature of LaFleur’s play calls.
Second is Rodgers’ fondness for diagnosing the defense at the line of scrimmage.


“I don’t foresee a future where I won’t need to wear a wristband,” Rodgers said on Friday. “Obviously, that’s something you’d love to take off at some point, but it really does help. I think it helps both sides. It helps Matt and it helps myself where just being able to have him telling me a number and me read off a card is easier than 12 words from him to me and then 12 words at least once if not twice from me to the guys in the huddle. It allows us to get out of the huddle a little bit quicker and get to the line of scrimmage, because this offense is a lot about checks at the line of scrimmage. It’s run to run, pass to run, run to pass, and I think whatever can help us streamline that tempo is what works best for us.”

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Posted (edited)

Aaron Jones interview today noted that at the beginning of the season defenses put a LB on him in coverage, but in the 2nd half of the season he was seeing different strategies from DCs. Sometimes a Safety, sometime a LB with Safety over the top and sometimes a CB assigned to him in coverage. Not earthshaking news, but confirmation of what others have suggested

Edited by Shanedorf

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blue horseshoe loves Anacott Steel...


and Greg Cosell loves Jace Sternberger in 2020

AP_19242042155689.jpg

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On 5/20/2020 at 10:32 AM, vegas492 said:

Best trait about Begelton is his hunger.  He doesn't have the measureables of the "other" WR's on the roster.  But...I think just his presence is going to push the bottom of that depth chart.

My guess is that he will be a practice squad guy.  

He has the ability to break tackles and get YAC. It has been a long time since the Packers had a WR that was good at that. Now how that transitions to the NFL we will see.

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from ACME PACKING

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2020/5/29/21274002/matt-lafleur-aaron-rodgers-aj-dillon-run-based-offense-nfl-offseason-2020?

“I think it’s week-to-week. You’re always trying to find the best way to move the football,” LaFleur said in an interview on Wilde and Tausch.

“I personally think it’s more of having plays that play off each other, just so you keep the defense off balance, whether it’s running the ball 10 times in a game or running the ball 50 times in a game, it really doesn’t matter to me.”

“The more you can be unpredictable in those normal situations, meaning first and second down situations, then I think it just presents more challenges to a defense,” LaFleur says .

Rodgers was second in deep pass attempts last year and tied for second in touchdowns, but he ranked just 31st in adjusted comp %
(aimed passes minus drops) among QBs who attempted at least 10 deep balls.

Among preferred starters, only Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford attempted a greater percentage of their throws deep than Rodgers and he finished 5th among preferred starters in passer rating on deep throws.

In other words, the Packers were already one of the most aggressive teams slinging it deep last year, but not nearly as efficient as other teams. In our recent play-action study, Rodgers bears responsibility for the biggest portion of those struggles, particularly with off-target throws. That said, according to Sports Info and Solutions, no quarterback lost more value last season to drops than Rodgers.

 

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16 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

...Rodgers was second in deep pass attempts last year and tied for second in touchdowns, but he ranked just 31st in adjusted comp %.... he finished 5th among preferred starters in passer rating on deep throws.

Shane or somebody else, can you reconcile those two numbers, or explain them to me? 

  • They seem widely contradictory.  31st suggests awful; but 5th in passer rating sounds excellent. 
  • So what do I draw from this?  Awful or excellent?  That overall, he was pretty excellent on deep throws?  Or that he was awful and wildly inaccurate?  
  • Is the incoherence partly telling me that the sample size is small and neither number really has much meaning or predictability?  
  • Is it just how passer-rating is calculated?  Completion % doesn't matter that much; interceptions and TD's count very heavily?  Rodgers didn't throw INT's on his long throws; and while his completion rate was low, when they were caught a bunch were TD's and big yardage gains?  

 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, craig said:

Shane or somebody else, can you reconcile those two numbers, or explain them to me? 

  • They seem widely contradictory.  31st suggests awful; but 5th in passer rating sounds excellent. 
  • So what do I draw from this?  Awful or excellent?  That overall, he was pretty excellent on deep throws?  Or that he was awful and wildly inaccurate?  
  • Is the incoherence partly telling me that the sample size is small and neither number really has much meaning or predictability?  
  • Is it just how passer-rating is calculated?  Completion % doesn't matter that much; interceptions and TD's count very heavily?  Rodgers didn't throw INT's on his long throws; and while his completion rate was low, when they were caught a bunch were TD's and big yardage gains?  

 

Passer rating grants 25% of each of it's weight to TD%, INT%, Completion %, and Yards/Attempt. 

Due to the nature of deep passing, Y/A and TD passing were probably maxed out for everybody.

That makes Completion% and INT% the driving forces. Rodgers didn't have an INT on a deep ball this year in the regular season. If another QB had even 1, that would have killed them based on the small sample size.

What this tells you is that he missed a lot, and when he missed, he missed deep where nobody could get to it.

Edited by AlexGreen#20

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