Kahlil Mack Trade Revisited

[soulman]

I don't get this "short window of contention" thing at all.  That's the kind of things people post when they spend to much time reading or listening to "media speak".  Pace is doing all he can to build this organization into a perennial winner so I believe this "window" thinking is far more imaginary than real.

We have no idea at all what this team may look like 3 years from now and who it's big dogs will be.  The media writes stuff like that because they have to write something but some teams just perpetually get to the top and stay there year after year because they run great organizations full of smart people.

The goal isn't to just get to a SB.  It's to win it and then keep coming back year after year for as long as possible.  It's not a one time deal.

[MonserinNC]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

I don't get this "short window of contention" thing at all.  That's the kind of things people post when they spend to much time reading or listening to "media speak".  Pace is doing all he can to build this organization into a perennial winner so I believe this "window" thinking is far more imaginary than real.

We have no idea at all what this team may look like 3 years from now and who it's big dogs will be.  The media writes stuff like that because they have to write something but some teams just perpetually get to the top and stay there year after year because they run great organizations full of smart people.

The goal isn't to just get to a SB.  It's to win it and then keep coming back year after year for as long as possible.  It's not a one time deal.

I think Im going to just kind of wait until the season to get back in these debates. Everyone sounds nuts. I wouldnt trade that group of players for Khalil Mack straight up....plus we added Kmet!?? How is this even a question who won?? Mack for Josh Jacobs basically is the question??

[beardown3231]

4 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

I think Im going to just kind of wait until the season to get back in these debates. Everyone sounds nuts. I wouldnt trade that group of players for Khalil Mack straight up....plus we added Kmet!?? How is this even a question who won?? Mack for Josh Jacobs basically is the question??

No it is not the question. Why would you not include Arnette, Edwards, Kmet, etc?

[Pool]

I think this trade worked out very well for both sides. Our players make more sense for us and their players make more sense for them based on where the two teams currently sit. 100% would do the trade again.

[dll2000]

 

For those who don't read good.

Obviously you have to factor in money and leadership and compounding effects and timelines, etc.  But this is nutshell.

I guess it is still TBD.

 

 

[soulman]

8 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

I think Im going to just kind of wait until the season to get back in these debates. Everyone sounds nuts. I wouldnt trade that group of players for Khalil Mack straight up....plus we added Kmet!?? How is this even a question who won?? Mack for Josh Jacobs basically is the question??

If we eliminate the later round horse trading of picks just to balance the scales what it all comes down to is we traded one mid 1st round pick in 2019 and swapped a mid round 2020 1st for the 11th pick in the 2nd round in 2020.  Those were the key picks.

For this we got one of the best OLB/Edge Rushers in the NFL in his prime and the top TE prospect in the 2020 draft filling two huge needs. One on each side of the ball.  So why do we care what Oakland did with those picks?  That's their business not ours.

To me it's like being at the same party as your ex who divorced you but she's asking everyone whose the hot young blonde you're with.  She sent you packing and had her attorney try rob you blind so it's none of her GD business either.  We're guys here not ex-wives.

Edited April 28, 2020 by soulman

[dll2000]

33 minutes ago, soulman said:

33 minutes ago, soulman said:

If we eliminate the later round horse trading of picks just to balance the scales what it all comes down to is we traded one mid 1st round pick in 2019 and swapped a mid round 2020 1st for the 11th pick in the 2nd round in 2020.  Those were the key picks.

For this we got one of the best OLB/Edge Rushers in the NFL in his prime and the top TE prospect in the 2020 draft filling two huge needs. One on each side of the ball.  So why do we care what Oakland did with those picks?  That's their business not ours.

To me it's like being at the same party as your ex who divorced you but she's asking everyone whose the hot young blonde you're with.  She sent you packing and had her attorney try rob you blind so it's none of her GD business either.  We're guys here not ex-wives.

Meh.  You couldn't find too many Bear's fans upset at trade at time.  Lots of celebrating is way I remember it.   Lots of celebrating.  And lots of upset fans on Raiders side.  Very upset.

People always say you have to factor in the contract!  And that's very true.  You also have to factor in we get a proven guy at peak of his abilities.  Now he may get hurt.  He was obviously banged up last year.  But still, all rookies are a crap shoot even when you get 3 high ones.

Now Raiders could have looked a lot better had they not chosen Brown as a FA with their savings and drafted better players.   But the risk of those decisions is part of it.  Mack the player was a very low risk.  You're only risk is injury.   Not character or ability.  

We can all go back and pick perfect FAs and drafts in hindsight.  These are players they actually picked.   We'll see how they do. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by dll2000

[soulman]

I'd say 95% were ecstatic and the other 5% joined once they knew GB was in the mix as well and we won another battle for a top player.

My only point is that I don't give a damn who the Raiders drafted with those picks.  I'm a Bears fan.  It's only what we do with the opportunities given us or that we create that matters to me so comparing the results is just wasted time.  It's after the fact and doesn't matter unless you're someone who enjoys playing "what if" games 'til end of days.

[Sugashane]

54 minutes ago, soulman said:

I'd say 95% were ecstatic and the other 5% joined once they knew GB was in the mix as well and we won another battle for a top player.

My only point is that I don't give a damn who the Raiders drafted with those picks.  I'm a Bears fan.  It's only what we do with the opportunities given us or that we create that matters to me so comparing the results is just wasted time.  It's after the fact and doesn't matter unless you're someone who enjoys playing "what if" games 'til end of days.

Agreed Soul. It doesn't matter who they got because the Bears likely weren't going to pick those guys anyway (just playing the odds alone). We might have drafted a HOFer, or might have drafted the next Kevin White. 

 

In this we got a HOF EDGE in his prime and a TE that hopefully becomes a dominant pillar of the offense. I'll take that 100% of the time. 

[MonserinNC]

8 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

No it is not the question. Why would you not include Arnette, Edwards, Kmet, etc?

I didnt include them because Arnette, Edwards and Kmet are all rookies we havent seen yet.   Also, I thought Kmet was the top TE, unless Arnette really kind of goes crazy we clearly won the trade.

[JAF-N72EX]

The Raiders also packaged our 5th round pick with Osemele to move into the 4th round (140) from the Jets, and then packaged the 140 pick with their 35th pick (early 2nd rd) to move down and get 38(2nd) and 109(early 3rd) from the Jags. And then they traded those two picks to move down again to get 40(2nd) and 159 (5th). Plus a ton of other moves that were somehow connected to the trade.

Really what the trade turned into was: 
Bears: Khalil Mack, Cole Kmet, Arlington Hambright
Raiders: Josh Jacobs, Damon Arnette, Trayvon Mullen, Bryan Edwards, A.J. McCarron, Isaiah Johnson, Foster Moreau, and Quinton Bell.

I'll be honest, I didn't care for the move at the time simply because I didn't believe in Trubisky, nor did I believed that we were only a pass rusher away from being a contender -- which IMO is the ONLY time a team should make trade like this one -- and I felt like we needed those draft picks in the future to fill several other holes on the roster as well. Besides, the Cutler trade (along with several other FO mistakes over the years) will always and forever have me second guessing big moves like these.

However, I underestimated just how much of an effect a player like Mack would have on the team. He took over what was already a good defense in 2017(just injured) and he helped make them great and that's exactly what great players do....they help take their team to the next level. I always say, good players help a team remain level, but great players help elevate them. 

Without Mack, this defense would've still been good but nowhere near how historically great they were in 2018 and there is no way in hell we get a 1st round bye and are just a missed FG away from going to the NFC championship game. 

Looking back on the 2018 season we likely go 9-7 (possibly even 8-8) that year instead of 12-4. And if everything else around the league stayed the same we barely eke into the 6th round spot in the playoffs by taking Philly's spot (also 9-7) by winning the tie-breaker and, coincidentally, keeping them out of the playoffs entirely and we end up playing the Cowboys on their turf in the WC round instead of Philly in the divisional round at home.

The 2018 playoffs would have looked like this:
1: Chiefs (12-4), Rams (14-2) 
2: Patriots (11-5), Saints (13-3)
3: Texans (11-5), Cowboys (10-6)
4: Ravens (10-6), Vikings (9-6-1)
5: Chargers (12-4), Seahawks (11-5)
6: Colts (10-6), Bears (9-7)

Plus, we would also have to factor in that none of those 4 losses in 2018 would have made any difference either since they were not lost because of the defense so you would have to look at the amount of games that were won solely because of the defense and look at what our record would likely have been in 2018 without Mack.

This is my count.

WK1 vs GB = L No change 
WK2 vs SEA = L Defense won this game.
WK3 vs ARI = L Defense won this game.
Wk4 vs TB = W No change. We still win this game.

**Wk5 Bye week. At this point, without Mack the Bears would likely be 1-3 instead of 3-1**

WK6 vs MIA = L No change
WK7 vs NE = L No change
WK8 vs NYJ = W No change. We still win this game.
WK9 vs BUF = W No change. This is debatable. We probably still win this game because BUF -- even though the defense won this game and the offense was trash. 
WK10 vs DET = W No change. We still win this game.
WK11 vs MIN = L Defense won this game.
WK12 vs DET = W No change
WK13 vs NYG = L No change
WK14 vs LAR = L Defense won this game.
WK15 vs GB = W No change. We still win.
WK16 vs SF = W No Change. We still win
WK17 vs MIN = W No change. We still win.

 

This brings up another point. For the sake of argument, using this schedule, lets pretend that we do go 9-7 in 2018 instead of 12-4.

If we don't trade for Mack in '18 then Pace no doubt goes into the '19 draft looking at pass rushers, but how many EDGE players were available by the time we picked that would have had as much of an impact as Mack? Spoiler...there were none. 

But in order to look at this as objectively as we can, we would also have to change the draft order too, so lets do it. 

With the Mack trade, we had the 24th pick of the 2019 NFL draft with a 12-4 record. Without Mack we would have had the 17th pick with a 9-7 record.

Now let's look at who would have been available at pick 17 or later and see if they any these EDGE rushers would have had the same impact on the team that Mack has had because I'm drawing a blank. 

Here is a list of all players drafted in rounds 1 and 2 in 2019 starting with pick 17. 

TM  Player          POS AGE

NYG	Dexter Lawrence	DT	21
MIN	Garrett Bradbury C	24
TEN	Jeffery Simmons	DT	22
DEN	Noah Fant	    TE	21
GNB	Darnell Savage	S	22
PHI	Andre Dillard	T	23
HOU	Tytus Howard	T	23
OAK	Josh Jacobs	RB	21
BAL	Marquise Brown	WR	22
WAS	Montez Sweat	DE	23
OAK	Johnathan Abram	S	22
LAC	Jerry Tillery	DT	22
SEA	L.J. Collier	DE	23
NYG	Deandre Baker	CB	22
ATL	Kaleb McGary	T	24
NWE	N'Keal Harry	WR	21
ARI	Byron Murphy	CB	21
IND	Rock Ya-Sin	CB	23
JAX	Jawaan Taylor	T	21
SFO	Deebo Samuel	WR	23
CAR	Greg Little	T	21
BUF	Cody Ford	T	22
TAM	Sean Murphy-Bunting CB	22
OAK	Trayvon Mullen	CB	21 
DEN	Dalton Risner	T	24
DEN	Drew Lock	QB	22
DET	Jahlani Tavai	LB	22
GNB	Elgton Jenkins	C	23
NWE	Joejuan Williams CB	21
CLE	Greedy Williams	CB	21
SEA	Marquise Blair	S	22
NOR	Erik McCoy	C	22
IND	Ben Banogu	LB	23
MIN	Irv Smith	TE	21
TEN	A.J. Brown	WR	22
CIN	Drew Sample	TE	23
PHI	Miles Sanders	RB	22
HOU	Lonnie Johnson	CB	22
HOU	Max Scharping	T	23
KAN	Mecole Hardman	WR	21
PHI	JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR	22
DAL	Trysten Hill	DT	21
IND	Parris Campbell	WR	22
LAC	Nasir Adderley	S	22
LAR	Taylor Rapp	S	21
ARI	Andy Isabella	WR	22
KAN	Juan Thornhill	S	23
SEA	D.K. Metcalf	WR	21

 

We don't know what Pace's draft board looked like but Montez Sweat and Ben Banogu were the only two pass rushers left available, within range, who fit Fangio's scheme so it's more than likely that he picks one and neither of them would have even come close to having the same impact as Mack has had. Not to mention, taking Banogu at 17 would have been insanely high reach, IMO. 

So MAYBE Pace and his scouts knew more about what the projected draft was going to look like and they knew that pass rushers would be hard to find when they wanted to get one-- even with a 1st or 2nd round pick. 

 

 

[topwop1]

Considering Bears drafted a better CB prospect in Jaylon Johnson with their 2nd round pick vs Raiders taking CB Damon Annette with our original 1st round pick, plus us adding a HOF player in Mack I would say we did well with this trade.

I like Josh Jacobs but IMO Raiders could have done better with the return they got.  Always wondered why they gave us back a 2nd round pick as part of this deal.  A real head scratcher to me.

Either way, like others have said, it was a good deal for both teams at the time.  A win win for both.

[dll2000]

18 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

The Raiders also packaged our 5th round pick with Osemele to move into the 4th round (140) from the Jets, and then packaged the 140 pick with their 35th pick (early 2nd rd) to move down and get 38(2nd) and 109(early 3rd) from the Jags. And then they traded those two picks to move down again to get 40(2nd) and 159 (5th). Plus a ton of other moves that were somehow connected to the trade.

Really what the trade turned into was: 
Bears: Khalil Mack, Cole Kmet, Arlington Hambright
Raiders: Josh Jacobs, Damon Arnette, Trayvon Mullen, Bryan Edwards, A.J. McCarron, Isaiah Johnson, Foster Moreau, and Quinton Bell.

I'll be honest, I didn't care for the move at the time simply because I didn't believe in Trubisky, nor did I believed that we were only a pass rusher away from being a contender -- which IMO is the ONLY time a team should make trade like this one -- and I felt like we needed those draft picks in the future to fill several other holes on the roster as well. Besides, the Cutler trade (along with several other FO mistakes over the years) will always and forever have me second guessing big moves like these.

However, I underestimated just how much of an effect a player like Mack would have on the team. He took over what was already a good defense in 2017(just injured) and he helped make them great and that's exactly what great players do....they help take their team to the next level. I always say, good players help a team remain level, but great players help elevate them. 

Without Mack, this defense would've still been good but nowhere near how historically great they were in 2018 and there is no way in hell we get a 1st round bye and are just a missed FG away from going to the NFC championship game. 

Looking back on the 2018 season we likely go 9-7 (possibly even 8-8) that year instead of 12-4. And if everything else around the league stayed the same we barely eke into the 6th round spot in the playoffs by taking Philly's spot (also 9-7) by winning the tie-breaker and, coincidentally, keeping them out of the playoffs entirely and we end up playing the Cowboys on their turf in the WC round instead of Philly in the divisional round at home.

The 2018 playoffs would have looked like this:
1: Chiefs (12-4), Rams (14-2) 
2: Patriots (11-5), Saints (13-3)
3: Texans (11-5), Cowboys (10-6)
4: Ravens (10-6), Vikings (9-6-1)
5: Chargers (12-4), Seahawks (11-5)
6: Colts (10-6), Bears (9-7)

Plus, we would also have to factor in that none of those 4 losses in 2018 would have made any difference either since they were not lost because of the defense so you would have to look at the amount of games that were won solely because of the defense and look at what our record would likely have been in 2018 without Mack.

This is my count.

WK1 vs GB = L No change 
WK2 vs SEA = L Defense won this game.
WK3 vs ARI = L Defense won this game.
Wk4 vs TB = W No change. We still win this game.

**Wk5 Bye week. At this point, without Mack the Bears would likely be 1-3 instead of 3-1**

WK6 vs MIA = L No change
WK7 vs NE = L No change
WK8 vs NYJ = W No change. We still win this game.
WK9 vs BUF = W No change. This is debatable. We probably still win this game because BUF -- even though the defense won this game and the offense was trash. 
WK10 vs DET = W No change. We still win this game.
WK11 vs MIN = L Defense won this game.
WK12 vs DET = W No change
WK13 vs NYG = L No change
WK14 vs LAR = L Defense won this game.
WK15 vs GB = W No change. We still win.
WK16 vs SF = W No Change. We still win
WK17 vs MIN = W No change. We still win.

 

This brings up another point. For the sake of argument, using this schedule, lets pretend that we do go 9-7 in 2018 instead of 12-4.

If we don't trade for Mack in '18 then Pace no doubt goes into the '19 draft looking at pass rushers, but how many EDGE players were available by the time we picked that would have had as much of an impact as Mack? Spoiler...there were none. 

But in order to look at this as objectively as we can, we would also have to change the draft order too, so lets do it. 

With the Mack trade, we had the 24th pick of the 2019 NFL draft with a 12-4 record. Without Mack we would have had the 17th pick with a 9-7 record.

Now let's look at who would have been available at pick 17 or later and see if they any these EDGE rushers would have had the same impact on the team that Mack has had because I'm drawing a blank. 

Here is a list of all players drafted in rounds 1 and 2 in 2019 starting with pick 17. 

TM  Player          POS AGE

NYG	Dexter Lawrence	DT	21
MIN	Garrett Bradbury C	24
TEN	Jeffery Simmons	DT	22
DEN	Noah Fant	    TE	21
GNB	Darnell Savage	S	22
PHI	Andre Dillard	T	23
HOU	Tytus Howard	T	23
OAK	Josh Jacobs	RB	21
BAL	Marquise Brown	WR	22
WAS	Montez Sweat	DE	23
OAK	Johnathan Abram	S	22
LAC	Jerry Tillery	DT	22
SEA	L.J. Collier	DE	23
NYG	Deandre Baker	CB	22
ATL	Kaleb McGary	T	24
NWE	N'Keal Harry	WR	21
ARI	Byron Murphy	CB	21
IND	Rock Ya-Sin	CB	23
JAX	Jawaan Taylor	T	21
SFO	Deebo Samuel	WR	23
CAR	Greg Little	T	21
BUF	Cody Ford	T	22
TAM	Sean Murphy-Bunting CB	22
OAK	Trayvon Mullen	CB	21 
DEN	Dalton Risner	T	24
DEN	Drew Lock	QB	22
DET	Jahlani Tavai	LB	22
GNB	Elgton Jenkins	C	23
NWE	Joejuan Williams CB	21
CLE	Greedy Williams	CB	21
SEA	Marquise Blair	S	22
NOR	Erik McCoy	C	22
IND	Ben Banogu	LB	23
MIN	Irv Smith	TE	21
TEN	A.J. Brown	WR	22
CIN	Drew Sample	TE	23
PHI	Miles Sanders	RB	22
HOU	Lonnie Johnson	CB	22
HOU	Max Scharping	T	23
KAN	Mecole Hardman	WR	21
PHI	JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR	22
DAL	Trysten Hill	DT	21
IND	Parris Campbell	WR	22
LAC	Nasir Adderley	S	22
LAR	Taylor Rapp	S	21
ARI	Andy Isabella	WR	22
KAN	Juan Thornhill	S	23
SEA	D.K. Metcalf	WR	21

 

We don't know what Pace's draft board looked like but Montez Sweat and Ben Banogu were the only two pass rushers left available, within range, who fit Fangio's scheme so it's more than likely that he picks one and neither of them would have even come close to having the same impact as Mack has had. Not to mention, taking Banogu at 17 would have been insanely high reach, IMO. 

So MAYBE Pace and his scouts knew more about what the projected draft was going to look like and they knew that pass rushers would be hard to find when they wanted to get one-- even with a 1st or 2nd round pick. 

 

 

Interesting take.

Also, another alt history thing to think about.  Had Antonio Brown not completely lost his mind and been professional the Raiders may have looked a lot better in 2019.

That huge O line led by Trent Brown really took it our defense in London and that rookie RB and their TEs were good.   They were completely lacking an explosive playmaking WR that Brown was for all of his career.   He would have conceivably made a huge difference in their offense.  

A really good season by Raiders in 2019 along with Bears disappointing 2019 would have had people thinking differently about the trade, fair or unfair.