Post Draft Big Picture Bears Thoughts

[SLCbear]

1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:

And, if I may...

What the HELL is going on with all the blatant animosity going on in this thread (and scattered about a couple of others)?

I like to argue football as much as the next guy, but come on everybody. Just tone it down, for Halas' sake. We're all internet bros. It's all good. Just chill. 

wait you're on here to chill and be bros ??   kill or be KILLED #!

 

[Sugashane]

7 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

"Lucky season" is a judgement call. Foles may well not work out for the Bears, but you (and a lot of others) are really devaluing what Pace did in acquiring him. Foles could be a long term solution. If not, he's likely to be a decent stopgap. I know that's not what we want to hear, and none of us would be happy settling on, but the team is talented, in many different areas. To not draft another guy is pretty ridiculous, but that's sort of another conversation...

True, it is my opinion only that it was a lucky season. But I feel that is backed by how dramatically different it was from the entirely of his career. It's like McCown when he had that great run here in Chicago with a 13/1 TD to Int line. He could have decent stretches but even with outliers he still is barely putting up more TDs than INTs for his career. So I'd consider that a lucky streak as well, just as I consider Foles' great season. 

Foles could prove me wrong, and I hope he does. But unless he has some major shift he is just another stopgap QB. I think his floor is higher than Tru's but that is really the biggest positive he has. That and system familiarity. 

As much as I hate to admit it, Winston probably would have been the signing that gave the Bears the best chance to win a Super Bowl this season. He was a horrific fit for Arians' system, Nagy could tone him down since he has had to already have conservative playcalling the last 2 years. Another converse there too though. 

[Sugashane]

41 minutes ago, SLCbear said:

wait you're on here to chill and be bros ??   kill or be KILLED #!

 

WAR CRY!!!! 

[beardown3231]

9 hours ago, SLCbear said:

^

and this exact same group, minus a rapidly declining Long, went 12-4 one season earlier

They weren't very good in 2018. That group didn't get them to 12-4 in 2018; the unbelievable performance weekly by the D did

[AZBearsFan]

10 hours ago, Sugashane said:

As much as I hate to admit it, Winston probably would have been the signing that gave the Bears the best chance to win a Super Bowl this season. He was a horrific fit for Arians' system, Nagy could tone him down since he has had to already have conservative playcalling the last 2 years. Another converse there too though. 

I don’t think Winston is anyone’s best chance to get to the Super Bowl this or any season. He would need to cut his giveaways in half from 2019, which is a ridiculously huge ask, to get even with where we were last season in a new system under generally significantly worse weather conditions with lesser receivers. Even if he were to cut his turnovers by 25% we’re still talking nearly 2 giveaways a game on average, and that’s not the huge outlier season for him in that regard one might think. He’s the biggest reason his teams are 28-42 in games he starts. He has thrown 88 INT and lost 23 fumbles in 72 appearances. Nobody can win with that. 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

7 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think Winston is anyone’s best chance to get to the Super Bowl this or any season. He would need to cut his giveaways in half from 2019, which is a ridiculously huge ask, to get even with where we were last season in a new system under generally significantly worse weather conditions with lesser receivers. Even if he were to cut his turnovers by 25% we’re still talking nearly 2 giveaways a game on average, and that’s not the huge outlier season for him in that regard one might think. He’s the biggest reason his teams are 28-42 in games he starts. He has thrown 88 INT and lost 23 fumbles in 72 appearances. Nobody can win with that. 

But his eyeballz!

[AZBearsFan]

29 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

But his eyeballz!

😂

There’s as much spin in that as there is that he took the NO deal over much more lucrative offers because it’s best for him. He has no shot to play in NO short of a Brees injury, and they just (inexplicably) gave $16M guaranteed to Taysom Hill. 

[beardown3231]

The end is perfect

 

[Bigbear72]

23 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

The end is perfect

 

Hilarious!

[Sugashane]

6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think Winston is anyone’s best chance to get to the Super Bowl this or any season. He would need to cut his giveaways in half from 2019, which is a ridiculously huge ask, to get even with where we were last season in a new system under generally significantly worse weather conditions with lesser receivers. Even if he were to cut his turnovers by 25% we’re still talking nearly 2 giveaways a game on average, and that’s not the huge outlier season for him in that regard one might think. He’s the biggest reason his teams are 28-42 in games he starts. He has thrown 88 INT and lost 23 fumbles in 72 appearances. Nobody can win with that. 

I understand what you're saying, but I disagree. Arians' system places a massive amount of responsibility for the QB and historically is a very aggressive system. That's a terrible thing for Winston, who as I said before he was drafted was a Jay Cutler clone on the field. You put either of them in a situation where they have to throw deep regularly or win shoot outs and you're screwed. Nagy has dumbed the playbook down for Trubisky, and he isn't going to be throwing it deep a ton with Foles either. I have no doubt that he would be able to limit the turnovers by being more conservative in his playcalling as he is forced to do with Tru. Winston makes a ton of boneheaded plays but is more accurate then Trubisky, who would be the weak link of almost any offense. Put him in TB last year and he likely still doesn't even hit 4000 yards, the talent would be squandered. 

We can't win the division and make postseason runs with the offense scoring 18 PPG either. While he will still have too many turnovers I think he would be able to put up a solid enough offense that the defense would easily be able to handle it, and we wouldn't keep losing games 3-10 or 7-17. The Bucs absolutely were a more talented offense but put Winsotn in Tru's place and we wouldn't be 3rd in points and years like TB was but we'd be well above the miserable attack we put forward. The 4th lowest scoring offense is pathetic. For example, TB LOWEST scoring games were 17, which they only did twice. The Bears scored under 17 points 8 times last year. I think with Winston and our team - while clearly inferior to TB's offense - would score at least 23 on average, placing them in the middle of the NFL. If not then we know Nagy can't cut it as a playcaller, but I think he could at least get that with a QB that isn't among the worst starters in the NFL.  I'm not sure the turnovers would be as damaging as you say, since the Bears had the 4th best scoring defense while the offense 17.5 points per game (29th), 296.8 yards per game (29th), 4.7 yards per play (31st), 5.3 net per attempt (32nd), 3.7 yards per rush (30th), 35.6% 3rd-down conv. (25th), 52.2% red-zone TDs (24th), and also was 28th in first downs.  2018's offense was mediocre and we were talking Super Bowl, Winston could give us a mediocre offense and have us saying the same IMO.  He may throw us out of the postseason, but I believe we'd easily make the postseason at least, I don't have that faith in our current QBs. 

 

[The_Romen]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

I understand what you're saying, but I disagree. Arians' system places a massive amount of responsibility for the QB and historically is a very aggressive system. That's a terrible thing for Winston, who as I said before he was drafted was a Jay Cutler clone on the field. You put either of them in a situation where they have to throw deep regularly or win shoot outs and you're screwed. Nagy has dumbed the playbook down for Trubisky, and he isn't going to be throwing it deep a ton with Foles either. I have no doubt that he would be able to limit the turnovers by being more conservative in his playcalling as he is forced to do with Tru. Winston makes a ton of boneheaded plays but is more accurate then Trubisky, who would be the weak link of almost any offense. Put him in TB last year and he likely still doesn't even hit 4000 yards, the talent would be squandered. 

We can't win the division and make postseason runs with the offense scoring 18 PPG either. While he will still have too many turnovers I think he would be able to put up a solid enough offense that the defense would easily be able to handle it, and we wouldn't keep losing games 3-10 or 7-17. The Bucs absolutely were a more talented offense but put Winsotn in Tru's place and we wouldn't be 3rd in points and years like TB was but we'd be well above the miserable attack we put forward. The 4th lowest scoring offense is pathetic. For example, TB LOWEST scoring games were 17, which they only did twice. The Bears scored under 17 points 8 times last year. I think with Winston and our team - while clearly inferior to TB's offense - would score at least 23 on average, placing them in the middle of the NFL. If not then we know Nagy can't cut it as a playcaller, but I think he could at least get that with a QB that isn't among the worst starters in the NFL.  I'm not sure the turnovers would be as damaging as you say, since the Bears had the 4th best scoring defense while the offense 17.5 points per game (29th), 296.8 yards per game (29th), 4.7 yards per play (31st), 5.3 net per attempt (32nd), 3.7 yards per rush (30th), 35.6% 3rd-down conv. (25th), 52.2% red-zone TDs (24th), and also was 28th in first downs.  2018's offense was mediocre and we were talking Super Bowl, Winston could give us a mediocre offense and have us saying the same IMO.  He may throw us out of the postseason, but I believe we'd easily make the postseason at least, I don't have that faith in our current QBs. 

 

I agree. While I despise Winston, for the price NO got him at, he's a steal as a backup. He could've come here and beaten Trubisky. Neither Mitch or Foles inspires anybody and while Winston has been a middling QB so far, he has loads more potential than either of them and seemingly could've been had for far less than they're paying both of these guys.

The familiarity aspect plays a part of it with Nagy, but we hated when Lovie hired all of his friends. At some point, taking a risk is worth it and I think Winston could've been that.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I understand what you're saying, but I disagree. Arians' system places a massive amount of responsibility for the QB and historically is a very aggressive system. That's a terrible thing for Winston, who as I said before he was drafted was a Jay Cutler clone on the field. You put either of them in a situation where they have to throw deep regularly or win shoot outs and you're screwed. Nagy has dumbed the playbook down for Trubisky, and he isn't going to be throwing it deep a ton with Foles either. I have no doubt that he would be able to limit the turnovers by being more conservative in his playcalling as he is forced to do with Tru. Winston makes a ton of boneheaded plays but is more accurate then Trubisky, who would be the weak link of almost any offense. Put him in TB last year and he likely still doesn't even hit 4000 yards, the talent would be squandered. 

We can't win the division and make postseason runs with the offense scoring 18 PPG either. While he will still have too many turnovers I think he would be able to put up a solid enough offense that the defense would easily be able to handle it, and we wouldn't keep losing games 3-10 or 7-17. The Bucs absolutely were a more talented offense but put Winsotn in Tru's place and we wouldn't be 3rd in points and years like TB was but we'd be well above the miserable attack we put forward. The 4th lowest scoring offense is pathetic. For example, TB LOWEST scoring games were 17, which they only did twice. The Bears scored under 17 points 8 times last year. I think with Winston and our team - while clearly inferior to TB's offense - would score at least 23 on average, placing them in the middle of the NFL. If not then we know Nagy can't cut it as a playcaller, but I think he could at least get that with a QB that isn't among the worst starters in the NFL.  I'm not sure the turnovers would be as damaging as you say, since the Bears had the 4th best scoring defense while the offense 17.5 points per game (29th), 296.8 yards per game (29th), 4.7 yards per play (31st), 5.3 net per attempt (32nd), 3.7 yards per rush (30th), 35.6% 3rd-down conv. (25th), 52.2% red-zone TDs (24th), and also was 28th in first downs.  2018's offense was mediocre and we were talking Super Bowl, Winston could give us a mediocre offense and have us saying the same IMO.  He may throw us out of the postseason, but I believe we'd easily make the postseason at least, I don't have that faith in our current QBs. 

 

Us scoring an extra 6 points a game doesn’t add any value if Winston is surrendering 6 back with turnovers. He’s turned the ball over at unacceptable rates in 2 separate offenses in the NFL and also in college (18 INT in 2014). He is who he is, and what that is is a QB no team wanted to take on to start for them.

[AZBearsFan]

I have a difficult time understanding the willingness to give Winston the chance to prove that the past SIX YEARS of league high turnover volume can be corrected while the desire to let Mitch show that he can right the ship after his downturn in 2019 is nearly non-existent. How is Winston all of a sudden becoming not a **** QB at this point any more likely than that Mitch does? 

[Heinz D.]

45 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I have a difficult time understanding the willingness to give Winston the chance to prove that the past SIX YEARS of league high turnover volume can be corrected while the desire to let Mitch show that he can right the ship after his downturn in 2019 is nearly non-existent. How is Winston all of a sudden becoming not a **** QB at this point any more likely than that Mitch does? 

No willingness on my part. You're even neglecting that Winston is an utter head case. Which makes it even worse. 

[WindyCity]

Let’s forget the 42 turnovers last a season.

The multiple credible sexual assault allegations meant he was never going to be a Bear.