Browns Draft: If I Were in Charge

[FGK]

As FFMD has proven many times in the past, we have some very smart posters on here. This is a chance for us to put our money down on where we would've gone in the draft vs. where the Browns went.

Rules - The players you pick have to have been available at that pick. All trades the team made stay the same.

Picks - 10, 44, 88, 97, 115, 160, 187

I'll post my answer below.

[FGK]

10 - Jedrick Wills - I loved the pick here, wouldn't do anything different.

44 - Antoine Winfield, FS - I get the Delpit potential argument, I think his athleticism and hype obscured the fact that he just struggles at the everyday plays. 

88 - Jordan Elliot - Again, I am on board for this one. Dude might have the 2nd or 3rd highest upside of any DT in this draft and has actually shown that upside on the field.

97 - Malik Harrison - This was my least favorite pick in the draft.

115 - Harrison Bryant - Again, really liked this pick, I'm on board.

160 - Netane Muti - I don't mind the Harris pick, at all. I get the value of a successor for Tretter and Harris is a great zone fit. But Tretter is only 29, and it's the 5th round. Swing for the freaking fences with a guy who, were his medical clear, would've been a 1st/2nd round pick.

187 - Donovan Peoples-Jones - I want to put Geno Stone here soooooo bad. But DPJ is just too much of a freak athlete with too clear of a path to be really, really good.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

I would have went with Winfield and Harrison as well. 
 

Everything else looks good to me.

[Horseunit]

Anyone get the feeling that Winfield will have a similar career to Bob Sanders?  Both are about the same size and play a similar style.  Sanders spent much of his career injured.

[MWil23]

I would have picked Winfield over Delpit, albeit I like Delpit.

I would have taken Harrison or Dye over Phillips.

[mtmmike]

ok

round1 Willis

round 2 KJ Hamler wr penn state

3a Phillips ;inebacker LSU

3b Troy pride cb Notre dame

4L Jarius snead DB loiusiana tech

5 Nick Harris Washington center

6 Donovan Peoples Jones

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by mtmmike
omittion

[Mind Character]

Here's my Draft:

1(10.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama 

-- Excluding Chase Young, Wills was the number 1 player on my overall board. Home run selection.

2(44.) Antoine Winfield Jr., S Minnesota // Denzel Mims, WR Baylor // JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State //  Antonio Gibson, PRB/WR Memphis // Jeremy Chinn, S Southern Illinois

-- In a draft full of gambles, I can't bet on the volatility and variance of high high to low low play of Grant Delpit. To ignore the special and height of ability, is to be blind; To ignore the consistent severe issues over the course of the last 2 years, is biased selective information processing. He's boom-bust. Not only were there less variable immediate quality impact huge upside players on the board like JK Dobbins, Denzel Mims, and Antonio Gibson, there was a better and consistent albeit less physical tools Safety on the board in Antoine Winfield Jr.

If we wanted to bet on a toolsy upside Safety, I think Jeremy Chinn even would've been a safer gamble with similar level of high payoff if the pick hits. If the Browns were set on going need and didn't want to invest in a RB or WR play-maker that wouldn't start now b/c of the current roster, I think that was the wrong approach as Dobbins, Mims, and Gibson are all going to be high level starters in a few years.  Grant Delpit has unbelievable upside, but he's just too volatile imo to build around.

3(88.) Jordan Elliot, DT Missouri

-- There was no higher rated player with the huge upside of Elliot on the board. Browns did well here. He had a knee that was flagged by some teams. I assume the Browns passed him or thought the medical risk was negligible in the 3rd round. He's a special pass rusher and has room to grow into a dominatn force against the run as well. Tremendous value selection.

3(97.) Troy Dye, LB Oregon // Jack Driscoll, OG/OT Auburn

-- Jacob Phillips is a straight-ahead, linear, tight-hipped, occasional thumper, 34-ILB, tackling machine, with limited range, and even worse instincts and feel for pass coverage. He doesn't have the ability to cover the slot TEs or WRs; he doesn't have the instincts or know-how to turn his back in coverage or range move to cover a zone that's not right in front of his eyes. I don't see how the selection helps the Browns match-up with the Bengals coming spread or the Ravens TEs. The move might foreshadow a Browns scheme move to 34 in 2021. Everything Phillips lacks Troy Dye has. If not Troy Dye, Jack Driscoll would've been a great plug and play Guard with RT upside if/when Conklin leaves. The Phillips selection in the 3rd Round was puzzling, but maybe he has off the chart intangibles that I'm not taking into account.

4(115.) Harrison Bryant, TE FAU

-- There wasn't a better value-pick on the board. Bryant has functional strength issues that will limit his impact and ability to stay on the field for the next 2 years. Once he has the strength, he has the catch ability and the will and technique as a blocker to be a really quality player for many years to come

5(160.) Justin Strnad, LB Wake Forrest

-- The Nick Harris selection was great value in its own right, but to me Justin Strnad has pro-bowl upside as a range play-maker. No one has a better combination of know-how and range in the pass game and against the run. His limitations are physicality. Getting Troy Dye and Justin Strnad would've guaranteed a quality range play-making LB for the Browns that could take away slot WRs/TEs and cover large areas via range against the run. Both Dye and Strnad are also highly intelligent players on the field.

6(187.) SLOT-EXCLUSIVE Donovan Peoples-Jones, Slot-WR Michigan --OR-- Kristian Welch, LB Iowa // Trajan Bandy, NCB Miami

-- IF we plan to use DPJ as a big-slot developmental prospect, the selection is a home run. If the plan is to use DPJ as an outside WR, the selection is a huge miss, and the Browns should've instead opted to go for quality upside players like Kristian Welch and Trajan Bandy imo. DPJ's quality has to be understood through one lens alone; that is, he's a BIG SLOT match-up upside nightmare. He's CHEEK cheeks as an outside WR not able to get separation quickly nor able to respond physically off the line to beat press.

He's a special weapon as a slot-exclusive player who can get free in zone for big 3rd down games and can win one on ones. His exceptional jump ball ability makes him an elite slot Redzone weapon even in the off the ball TE-slot alignment. The Browns can utilize a "Lob City" redzone package with David Njoku Outside 1-on-1, OBJ on the opposite outside spot, with DPJ in the inside-slot off the line, Austin Hooper on the line, and Jarvis aligned as the catch and run Half Back/Running Back alignment. The possibilities are endless if DPJ and Njoku can ascend.

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Mind Character

[brownie man]

@Mind Character

where the **** is JK Dobbins playing with Nick Freaking Chubb and Kareem Freaking Hunt

Im as much as a homer Osu fan as anyone

that would be the most unreasonable pick in the draft 

[Mind Character]

3 hours ago, Horseunit said:

Anyone get the feeling that Winfield will have a similar career to Bob Sanders?  Both are about the same size and play a similar style.  Sanders spent much of his career injured.

Bob Sanders was a thumping safety from a different era.

WInfield Jr. is more of a switchable chess piece in that he has tremendous ball-hawking range play-making ability but also thumps and range-destroys the running game when he decides to or is used in that role. Sanders never had the Free Safety ability Winfield Jr. has.

Winfield Jr. had injury and medical concerns and the Bucs appear to see him more of the mismatch free safety type then just the "in the box, sacrifice your body" strong safety type. That could prolong his career and durability although he's really built like a tank.

[Mind Character]

1 hour ago, brownie man said:

@Mind Character

where the **** is JK Dobbins playing with Nick Freaking Chubb and Kareem Freaking Hunt

Im as much as a homer Osu fan as anyone

that would be the most unreasonable pick in the draft 

If you see the draft through the lens of Needs for the current year, then you're taking the worst approach to Draft Roster Building that there is.

The idea that suggesting Dobbins as one of the better options in the 2nd is akin to OSU-homerism is ridiculous given Kareem Hunt's pending free agency and dependability/availability track record.

Instead of jumping off the ledge in reaction, I made it very clear what my reasoning was for selecting imo more stable upside quality starters prospects like Antoine Winfield Jr., S Minnesota, Denzel Mims, WR Baylor, JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State, Antonio Gibson, PRB/WR Memphis, and Jeremy Chinn, S Southern Illinois (in that order) in the 2nd Round over a imo High High Ceiling Low Floor unstable production prospect like Grant Delpit.

But let's address you're "BUT How could you say that when They won't play this year" perspective. I remember a time when people didn't want to draft a WR because "we already had Antonio Callaway," I remember when people didn't want to draft a LB or sign one because, "we already have Kirksey and Jamie Collins our depth is amazing at LB" Needs are fluid and highly changeable in the NFL.

Kareem Hunt is headed for Undrafted Free Agency, even if he wasn't after years of off the field issues Kareem was pulled over in his own words in a bad emotional state drinking and smoking. Emotional instability off the field or troubles off the field often translate to dependability in the meeting room and on the field. Therefore, I don't know or trust if Kareem will be a reliable guy for the team even with the changes in the CBA that would cause the Browns investing moderately large dollars in him in the off-season if he has a big year. So, if Kareem leaves on his own accord b/c he wants a starting role or the Browns don't want to invest in him long-term, sustained winning teams benefit greatly from having multiple starter level quality RBs that can be swapped as change of pace RBs.

At the end of the year, OBJ and Jarvis Landry are going to start calling for new money. Given their age range and injury history, the Browns might not be inclined to invest longterm in them the money that it will take. Therefore, it's highly plausible that either OBJ, Jarvis Landry, or both won't be the starting WRs in 2 years. Therefore, longterm quality starter prospects at WR like Denzel Mims and Antonio Gibson imo would've have been great options at 44.

I also made the point that IF we wanted to go need at Safety, that in my opinion Winfield Jr. and to a much lesser extent Jeremy Chinn would've been better option. Even still, Delpit has a ton of upside and the pick has some logic to it though I would've preferred the Browns go in a different direction.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Mind Character

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

50 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

If you see the draft through the lens of Needs for the current year, then you're taking the worst approach to Draft Roster Building that there is.

 

I stopped reading about here, but this line alone was worth the like.

The draft is for building long term, FA is for needs/filling holes. It’s great when need and value collide like with Wills and Delpit, but passing on superior prospects for need is the quickest way for a GM to get canned.

 

 

[brownie man]

14 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I stopped reading about here, but this line alone was worth the like.

The draft is for building long term, FA is for needs/filling holes. It’s great when need and value collide like with Wills and Delpit, but passing on superior prospects for need is the quickest way for a GM to get canned.

 

 

Dog the running back position?!?!

your going to draft ahead of time for a freaking running back?!?!

no just stop it no

you can literally find a solid running back anywhere anytime. 

Another position is understandable for sure. 

but no way does it make sense to draft a backup RB in the 2nd let alone a third string RB at that. No that’s ridiculous. Why so once his forth year is up you gotta resign him???

 Now your resigning a 4th year running back just so he can finally play?! Who would probably get a 4-5 year contract??! Uhhh that makes no sense  

we could draft someone in the 5th round any year and behind this Oline they’d probably have an above average year. 
 

You’ve got Chubb at least for two more years. Even if that’s it. You get two years of Dobbins starting then he’s a FA. Then what?! You wanna franchise him? That’s cash. You wanna let him go? Wow so you just used a second round pick for two years of a player I the hopes of maybe getting a late third comp pick? Uhh bad use of assets

it just makes absolutely no sense. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by brownie man

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

2 minutes ago, brownie man said:

Dog the running back position?!?!

your going to draft ahead of time for a freaking running back?!?!

no just stop it no

you can literally find a solid running back anywhere anytime. 

Another position is understandable for sure. 

but no way does it make sense to draft a backup RB in the 2nd let alone a third string RB at that. No that’s ridiculous. Why so once his forth year is up you gotta resign him???

 Now your resigning a 4th year running back just so he can finally play?! Who would probably get a 4-5 year contract??! Uhhh that makes no sense  

we could draft someone in the 5th round any year and behind this Oline they’d probably have an above average year. 
 

You’ve got Chubb at least for two more years. Even if that’s it. You get two years of Dobbins starting then he’s a FA. Then what?! You wanna franchise him? That’s cash. You wanna let him go? Wow so you just used a second round pick for two years of a player I the hopes of maybe getting a late third comp pick? Uhh bad use of assets

it just makes absolutely no sense. 

Calm down pal, everything’s ok. 😂 

[MWil23]

Next year Hunt is gone and we have to decide whether or not to pay money on arguably the best RB in the NFL on that “position that can be had at any point”, so 2021-2023 are critical from a money and early draft standpoint.

[Mind Character]

@brownie man

You do realize that we took Nick Chubb 35th Overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, right? And Kareem Hunt's likely gone next year, and the Browns have to decide if they're going to pay Nick Chubb top RB money?

I also specified both Antoine Winfield Jr. and Denzel Mims as the #1 and #2 prospects I would've preferred the Browns select at the 44 follwed by #3 JK Dobbins, #4 Antoino Gibson, and #5 Jeremy Chinn.

If you want to make it all about JK Dobbins suit yourself, but even in that way I've given plenty of reasons why taking Dobbins make sense in the 2nd at the 44th pick in the draft as I think he has top 5 RB in the league ability and would make a sustainable dynamic 1, 2 punch in a run heavy offense so that the wheels don't fall off of Nick Chubb and his former torn ACL knee doesn't get too many miles on it too soon.

The "you can find a RB anywhere logic" is a misunderstanding of the analytical positional value argument on RB draft selection. You can't find Nick Chubb or Dalvin Cook or Christian McCaffrey anywhere. I had DeeJay Dallas and Joshua Kelley as the best RBs available after Dobbins. I love both of their games, but they're no JK Dobbins.

Name me the RB that was "found anywhere" after Nick Chubb with his quality that was selected after him in 2018? In both 2018 and 2019, there were 32 RBs drafted after each draft's 35th pick none close to the level of Nick Chubb. My pre-draft evaluation and the pre-draft evaluation of many others have JK Dobbins as an even higher rated RB than Nick Chubb.

Even I would've preferred the Browns go for a player at another position other than RB at the Grant Delpit pick, but in terms of immediate ability, upside, value and scheme fit if the Browns drafted JK Dobbins it would've been just fine and a really good selection even though it's not a "need."

Edited April 26, 2020 by Mind Character