2021 NFL Draft Thread

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Not saying I don’t believe you but which “credible scouts” said he was a slot wr?

Nearly every single scouting report.... like seriously.....

He had only 1 year of first round production and tape and all but 5 snaps came from the slot.  His sophomore year when he played outside much more he wasn’t that impressive.  Every decent scouting guide questioned his lack of reps outside, which meant he never faced press coverage at the line (in fact many felt he was easily pushed off his routes with minor contact)... and the vast majority of his production came from finding soft spots in zone coverages, not by beating man coverage by creating separation.

do you really not remember this?  Or are you just busting balls?  These were issues like literally every single draft guide and scouting report had.  These are the things than kept Jefferson from being considered inside the lamb, Ruggs, Jeudy “tier 1” of WRs.... especially after he was 6’1.25” and not 6’3.

So you’ve claimed the benefits of being the one who was high on Jefferson yet legit don’t even know what the “Negatives” of his game where?  No offense meant... seriously.... but that seems more like you hit dumb luck when you “wanted him” then any you scouted him as a prospect and ranked him higher than the consensus.  And there’s nothing wrong with dumb luck... heck I wish the raiders had more dumb luck.

it’s like someone who wanted his team to draft a mid round WR in 2010 for his team and picked Antonio Brown For his team mock draft.... he likely picked AB out of a grouping of 10 possible WRs.... maybe he saw some more upside then others but he still put AB as his 5th round pick and not as a 1st rounder, so obviously he never foresaw AB becoming what he became/kinda still is.  So that person can’t say “I knew AB would be great!”.  Cuz if he knew he’d be great why didn’t he put him in the 1st...2nd... etc round of his mock.  
 

I find it troubling your claiming the success of claiming you wanted Jefferson with the 2nd 1st round pick instead of lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs at 12 and at the same time knocking people who knew the actual Consensus questions surrounding Jefferson .... yet are still to This day oblivious of those questions.  How is that anything other than you got lucky?  I’m not trying to knock You.... I’m truly glad you were right.... but it also means you really can’t pass judgement on others.  YoU get the credit of being right but can’t say other people Didn’t know anything.  Cuz they are the only people who actually knew the question marks In Jefferson’s game.

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by jimkelly02

[jimkelly02]

6 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

Exactly, some people think they know everything in hindsight... smh... there’s a reason why Jefferson was the 5th wideout drafted, questions about playing outside

I’m not trying take props away from him or anyone.  He absolutely gets the benefit of the doubt that he ranked Jefferson higher then the consensus and was correct only 1 year later.  My claim is simply that if you didn’t even know the question marks of a prospect in the first round you can’t hit people with the “I told you so... i can’t believe you didn’t think ____” response once your guy outperforms.

 

[jimkelly02]

6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Yeah, most analysts had Ferrell ranked and mocked in the 20-30 range. In college he never showed the bend, power, or explosiveness like you'd expect to see from a guy that's taken with a top 5 pick. An edge taken that high should have the potential to be a 10+ sack per year type player. Ferrell also didn't work out at the combine or his pro day so we never got to see athletic testing numbers for him. If he did, he probably would've tested out pretty averagely and we honestly probably wouldn't have drafted him. 

Well..... before the combine Ferrell was a consensus top 8 pick and had been ranked that high since the end of his sophomore season.  I’d say 50%+ of mocks had him going to us at 4 when the final draft order was decided.  He only Slipped to the 18-25 range after the combine.  The guy was highly regarded for a long time... then slipped at the end.  

And 20-30 is really stretching it a bit.  Ferrell was thought to be in play for Detroit At 8, GB at 12, Miami At 13, Carolina at 14.... and his absolute floor was us at 24.... maybe 27.  
 

Ferrell Was absolutely a reach... but a reach because we should and likely could have moved down to 12ish and still had a high chance of getting him.... or we should have drafted the higher ranked player available in J.Allen.  I never had an issue drafting Ferrell in the first.  My issue was always if he’s “YOUR GUY” which I’m absolutely okay with... then you trade down and acquire the draft capital.  We lost out on at least a 2nd and 4th round selection (it was a year where we weren’t going to get positive value moving down).  The loss of that draft capital is what eats at me.  Not that we took Ferrell, cuz he was a highly rated prospect.  And this issue of wasted draft capital is the biggest beef I have with Mayock, followed by wasted cap space.  We hired Mayock to get us more value then we should out of the draft.  He should be trading down in these cases and landing us (for instance just a made up scenario on the fly).... 

1.4 to Detroit for 1.8 and ...

2.43, 4.117 (OR)

3.81, 4.117, 2020 2nd

 

then We could have had:

1.8 Ferrell DE

2.43 AJ Brown/DJ Metcalf WR or 

4.117 whoever, it’s unfair to look back and say I’d have taken player X and he’s been successful.  But there was lots of talent in round 4, as we know cuz Mayock did very very in Rds 4-( that year.

We certainly wouldn’t have had Tyrell Williams On the roster and would have cut his 11m salary and use that along with the money we wasted on Nassib, etc and signed a top def FA with that 18+m difference.

the same Thing happened with Arnette at 19... we had a confirmed offer trade down that Mayock said would still have given him the ability to almost certainly Take Arnette.  I wrote about this at length and it can be found via the search bar.... but to keep it Simple and go Off my memory we at minimum could have traded down and added a 3rd and 4th and gotten Arnette the still.

(Just remember: Justin Jefferson was on board at 17)

You take that bare minimum 3rd and 4th and moved up in rounds 3, Instead of taking Bowden and Muse we could have used the trade down capital to move up. 
 

It’s the “compounding interest of your mistakes”.... as far as I know that is my term (patient pending) .... which I invented to describe my personal life in my 20s lol..... to that makes me so Upset with Mayock.  It’s not just a few little mistakes.... these are small snowballs rolling down a hill and turning into an avalanche.  
 

Im Just a idiot with An iPhone..... give me All that draft capital and salary cap room And were definitely in a way better spot.

[Humble_Beast]

54 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

I’m not trying take props away from him or anyone.  He absolutely gets the benefit of the doubt that he ranked Jefferson higher then the consensus and was correct only 1 year later.  My claim is simply that if you didn’t even know the question marks of a prospect in the first round you can’t hit people with the “I told you so... i can’t believe you didn’t think ____” response once your guy outperforms.

 

Exactly... 

[NCOUGHMAN]

1 hour ago, jimkelly02 said:

Nearly every single scouting report.... like seriously.....

He had only 1 year of first round production and tape and all but 5 snaps came from the slot.  His sophomore year when he played outside much more he wasn’t that impressive.  Every decent scouting guide questioned his lack of reps outside, which meant he never faced press coverage at the line (in fact many felt he was easily pushed off his routes with minor contact)... and the vast majority of his production came from finding soft spots in zone coverages, not by beating man coverage by creating separation.

do you really not remember this?  Or are you just busting balls?  These were issues like literally every single draft guide and scouting report had.  These are the things than kept Jefferson from being considered inside the lamb, Ruggs, Jeudy “tier 1” of WRs.... especially after he was 6’1.25” and not 6’3.

So you’ve claimed the benefits of being the one who was high on Jefferson yet legit don’t even know what the “Negatives” of his game where?  No offense meant... seriously.... but that seems more like you hit dumb luck when you “wanted him” then any you scouted him as a prospect and ranked him higher than the consensus.  And there’s nothing wrong with dumb luck... heck I wish the raiders had more dumb luck.

it’s like someone who wanted his team to draft a mid round WR in 2010 for his team and picked Antonio Brown For his team mock draft.... he likely picked AB out of a grouping of 10 possible WRs.... maybe he saw some more upside then others but he still put AB as his 5th round pick and not as a 1st rounder, so obviously he never foresaw AB becoming what he became/kinda still is.  So that person can’t say “I knew AB would be great!”.  Cuz if he knew he’d be great why didn’t he put him in the 1st...2nd... etc round of his mock.  
 

I find it troubling your claiming the success of claiming you wanted Jefferson with the 2nd 1st round pick instead of lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs at 12 and at the same time knocking people who knew the actual Consensus questions surrounding Jefferson .... yet are still to This day oblivious of those questions.  How is that anything other than you got lucky?  I’m not trying to knock You.... I’m truly glad you were right.... but it also means you really can’t pass judgement on others.  YoU get the credit of being right but can’t say other people Didn’t know anything.  Cuz they are the only people who actually knew the question marks In Jefferson’s game.

 

Just asked you to show some of those scouting reports. My bad 

[jimkelly02]

4 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Just asked you to show some of those scouting reports. My bad 

The fact you are asking means you were totally unaware of the issues Jefferson had.  It’s not that I’m some jerk that won’t provide a link.  I’d be more than willing to email you PFF’s draft guide.... which I ordered everyone on this board in the past.  

and literally every scouting report you can find from a google search of “Justin Jefferson + nfl draft scouting report” will make major note of it.
The questions concerning Jefferson being able to play outside was highly highly discussed, so it’s not some minor detail.  
 

PM me your email if you want the PFF draft guide.

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by jimkelly02

[MrOaktown_56]

20 hours ago, big_palooka said:

No hindsight here. The dumbest "analysis" of a dominate WR is where they took snaps in a college offense.

Jefferson was a smooth route running with great hands and great through contact. 

The reason he was the 5th WR taken was the same reason Ruggs with the first WR taken. Stacked class, depended on who you liked. 

Jefferson took his route running to the next level in NFL. He took advantage of some easy matchups in college, but looked like a vet as a rookie. So much confidence and nuance in his game. I may have to change the way I evaluate receivers after his breakout. 

[Humble_Beast]

On 1/16/2021 at 10:34 AM, NYRaider said:

Yeah, most analysts had Ferrell ranked and mocked in the 20-30 range. In college he never showed the bend, power, or explosiveness like you'd expect to see from a guy that's taken with a top 5 pick. An edge taken that high should have the potential to be a 10+ sack per year type player. Ferrell also didn't work out at the combine or his pro day so we never got to see athletic testing numbers for him. If he did, he probably would've tested out pretty averagely and we honestly probably wouldn't have drafted him. 

Should have been a red flag he was scared to test at the combine. Smh... big year for Ferrell next year... he has flashed at times, but injuries screwed him year. He needs to master his technique to do damage because he isn’t going win based on his athletic ability 

[Humble_Beast]

30 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Jefferson took his route running to the next level in NFL. He took advantage of some easy matchups in college, but looked like a vet as a rookie. So much confidence and nuance in his game. I may have to change the way I evaluate receivers after his breakout. 

In a redraft Jefferson a borderline top 5 pick... 

[MrOaktown_56]

27 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

Should have been a red flag he was scared to test at the combine. Smh... big year for Ferrell next year... he has flashed at times, but injuries screwed him year. He needs to master his technique to do damage because he isn’t going win based on his athletic ability 

Length and strength don't count as athletic ability? That's why he was drafted. He needs to bulk up again, like he did last year. He did look pretty good on the field this year. I'm not a PFF buff, but they loved him more than I did. That Jets game is a flash of what he can do for us. He is a building block moving forward, but shouldn't stop us from adding a lot more talent (kinda like Crosby).

[NYRaider]

50 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

Should have been a red flag he was scared to test at the combine. Smh... big year for Ferrell next year... he has flashed at times, but injuries screwed him year. He needs to master his technique to do damage because he isn’t going win based on his athletic ability 

I'm pretty sure he was hurt.

[Darbsk]

18 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

the same Thing happened with Arnette at 19... we had a confirmed offer trade down that Mayock said would still have given him the ability to almost certainly Take Arnette.  I wrote about this at length and it can be found via the search bar.... but to keep it Simple and go Off my memory we at minimum could have traded down and added a 3rd and 4th and gotten Arnette the still.

(Just remember: Justin Jefferson was on board at 17)

You take that bare minimum 3rd and 4th and moved up in rounds 3, Instead of taking Bowden and Muse we could have used the trade down capital to move up. 

Aha, so you've come back round to @BayRaiderand my way of thinking after trying to sell us on Arnette's value at 19 😀😀 🍻 

 

 

 

[BayRaider]

1 minute ago, Darbsk said:

Aha, so you've come back round to @BayRaiderand my way of thinking after trying to sell us on Arnette's value at 19 😀😀 🍻 

 

 

 

And if we were gonna reach on a corner, I’ll take Jaylon Johnson over Arnette, who projects as a career nickel. Jaylon was probably the third best rookie corner this year behind Terrell and Henderson.

[big_palooka]

29 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

And if we were gonna reach on a corner, I’ll take Jaylon Johnson over Arnette, who projects as a career nickel. Jaylon was probably the third best rookie corner this year behind Terrell and Henderson.

Snead?

[reddevil]

I’m not willing to write Arnette off just yet. I thought he started the year pretty strong. Had those awful head injuries, a broken hand to deal with, having one of the worst d coaches and then a coaching change as well as being rotated a lot during games.

He could be as bad as the last few games, but I’d want to give him a chance, ideally playing to his strengths after a proper off season and some better coaching.