2021 Draft Thread

[Rockice_8]

3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

But that’s it. I’m not sure JD is totally sold on Wilson or Fields. If he doesn’t love one of them. He’s not going to draft one just to draft a QB.

You have no idea what he's thinking and neither do I.  I do know that Sam has been one of the worst QBs for 3 years, is injury prone, and is unlikely to ever become a top 10 QB which is what you need to win a superbowl.

If he doesn't love either guy then pass on them.  Just know it doesn't get easier to find one it now gets harder.  I'm not sure what he's looking for in a QB prospect of he doesn't love these QBs both really check all the boxes.

[Rockice_8]

3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Every time this team has had a good OL, very good WRs and a running game we’ve been good. With all types of QBs.

And could never even get to a superbowl let alone win it because we didn't have a QB.  If we think we are going to ground and pound like the Rex days and play tough defense all the way to the superbowl then I have some real estate on the moon I'd like to sell you.

Get the QB first figure out the rest later.  You can always find a piece here or there at other positions.  Finding the QB is always the hardest.

[GangGreen420]

19 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

Sure you don't a top 3 pick for a QB but when you picking there and need a QB you should take one.  Especially when there are two prospects worthy of the selection.

My worry is becoming the Bears.  Solid team no QB and in no position to land one.  If it were that easy to just build the team first and then grab your QB later teams like CHI, SF, WAS, etc wouldn't be stuck in QB purgatory like they are now.

It's easy to say just grab one next year but the further down the board you go the more flaws the prospect will have.  When you need a QB and one is there worth taking you should take them.  

See, this is where we disagree. I don’t think either of them are worthy of taking there. But I’ll let Douglas make the call.

You don’t take a QB at 2 just because you “need” one if you aren’t in love with him. If Douglas loves one of these guys he will draft him there and I’ll support it.

My gut feeling is Darnold is the 2021 starter.

[xrade]

5 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

Or you get stuck in QB hell.  They are hard enough to find as it is and we have two great prospects to pick from and we are going to pass on both?  Hoping the next Rodgers falls into out lap is not really a great strategy.  What if next year your scouts don't like the mid round QBs?  Just going to grab the next Mariota on the market and hope for the best?  We just going to keep swinging at the next James Morgan every draft?

Can't just keep winning 7-9 games every year or you are out of a job eventually.

We aren't strapped for assets we can build around a QB at 2.  He's not coming into a team with nothing to work with.

I would prefer we trade for Watson if not, draft Wilson or Fields. My post is in response to the fact that top QB’s are not always the highest ranked prospects. Herbert was selected 7th? last year. The league is littered with non-top 3 QB’s. It is also littered with failures that were taken top 3.

You are assuming Fields/Wilson are great prospects. Maybe the professionals do not. It is hard to judge JD at this point, but so far, he looks like he knows what he is doing. If they pass on Fields/Wilson, I will assume it is because they are not worth it. To prove my point about media and fan favorites and professional favorites look no further than Geno Smith, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinert etc.

All this means is that QB is the biggest crap shoot in the NFL draft. It all comes down to scouting, the GM, and the coaching staff.

[GangGreen420]

15 minutes ago, xrade said:

I would prefer we trade for Watson if not, draft Wilson or Fields. My post is in response to the fact that top QB’s are not always the highest ranked prospects. Herbert was selected 7th? last year. The league is littered with non-top 3 QB’s. It is also littered with failures that were taken top 3.

You are assuming Fields/Wilson are great prospects. Maybe the professionals do not. It is hard to judge JD at this point, but so far, he looks like he knows what he is doing. If they pass on Fields/Wilson, I will assume it is because they are not worth it. To prove my point about media and fan favorites and professional favorites look no further than Geno Smith, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinert etc.

All this means is that QB is the biggest crap shoot in the NFL draft. It all comes down to scouting, the GM, and the coaching staff.

You said it better than I did

[ekill08x]

40 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Every time this team has had a good OL, very good WRs and a running game we’ve been good. With all types of QBs.

LOL once. 

[Rockice_8]

5 hours ago, GangGreen420 said:

See, this is where we disagree. I don’t think either of them are worthy of taking there. But I’ll let Douglas make the call.

You don’t take a QB at 2 just because you “need” one if you aren’t in love with him. If Douglas loves one of these guys he will draft him there and I’ll support it.

My gut feeling is Darnold is the 2021 starter.

I'm not saying I'm right and you are wrong but yes we disagree there.  I trust JD and if passes on them I'll be fine with that.  I just hate the idea of Sam long term and really don't want to be sitting in the middle of the draft hoping we are one of those lucky teams that has a great QB fall into their lap.  Those situations don't happen every year.  

I guess I'm hoping JD does love one of these guys because I'm done with Sam.

I mean both Wilson and Fields check a ton of boxes so if he does pass I'd be curious as to what he is looking for in a QB prospect.  Plus it's about options.  If you trust JD to evaluate the QBs then you want to be able to pick the one you want not have to settle for who drops if you are picking in the middle of the draft.  

You want to get your guy not settle and if your guy gets drafted we may be stuck trading up which isn't ideal.

If you trust him to evaluate in a good QB class with a few good prospects then he should take his guy and not try and get cute.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Rockice_8

[Bobby816]

9 hours ago, Rockice_8 said:

And could never even get to a superbowl let alone win it because we didn't have a QB.  If we think we are going to ground and pound like the Rex days and play tough defense all the way to the superbowl then I have some real estate on the moon I'd like to sell you.

Get the QB first figure out the rest later.  You can always find a piece here or there at other positions.  Finding the QB is always the hardest.

We've done that and when we didn't prioritize surrounding that QB with talent... look what has happened. Sanchez, Geno, Darnold. We've killed careers bc we haven't done enough around the QB. Sanchez played great in the playoffs for us. He wasn't a good regular season QB. But we got rid of every talent around him. Geno we never gave any talent to. How he went 8-8 his rookie year shows how good he "could have" been if we ever gave him talent. We've never given Darnold talent in 3 years. WE'VE KILLED THE CONFIDENCE OF EVERY YOUNG QB WE'VE EVER DRAFTED. We've had talent on this team in the last 25 years 3-5 times and we had deep playoff runs with 3 of those teams. 1998 with a 35yr old Testaverde (far from an elite QB) with a supporting cast of Martin, Key and Chrebet. 2002 Jets with Pennington (far from and elite QB) with rather the same supporting cast except we had Coles and Moss instead of Key. Fast forward to when we moved on from these QBs to Sanchez and he had Braylon, Holmes, Cotchery, Jones and LT. Then we sucked after letting all those weapons go. And finally had a good team again when? When we prioritized offense again. Not with a QB, but with weapons when we had a 34 year old Fitz at QB for us. But he had a supporting cast of BMarsh, Decker and Ivory. Since then... we haven't had a good offense. Why is that? Bc we haven't prioritized offense. We kept drafting defense and thinking we could start tier 2 and 3 guys in FA along with mid and late round draft picks. And that's what has lead us over the last decade to probably be the worst offensive team over the decade. These weren't world beater QBs going deep into playoffs. These were aging guys or guys we ruined careers on. And we almost made it to a few SBs still.

 

Point being we draft Wilson or Fields and lets say get 1 elite guy in FA on offense... we then have just a few priority picks to add great talent around that rookie QB. Lets say at least 1 or 2 of those picks are on defense. So we are now at 1 or 2 picks to really help the rookie on offense. The odds of that guy being a star or difference maker is small lets remember. So what have we done. We gave the torch to a new QB but really didn't change anything around him. Maybe even wasted a 2nd pick on a guy when if we just gave Darnold talent he could be just as good as that guy and is only a couple years older. We trade back from 2 to lets say 4 and stick with Darnold. Now you are adding him a legit WR in Smith or Chase potentially and more picks like the 35th pick in Round 2. Which could be used on a RB like Etienne or Harris (if they fall that far). To help the offense as a whole... sticking with Darnold is the better option.

 

You also have to realize... you are a lot higher on Wilson than a lot are. 

[Bobby816]

9 hours ago, ekill08x said:

LOL once. 

No. We had good offenses with Vinny, Pennington and Fitz. All 3 had a good group of WRs and a good RB. 

[jetfuel34]

46 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

No. We had good offenses with Vinny, Pennington and Fitz. All 3 had a good group of WRs and a good RB. 

You could even add Sanchez, and KOB to that list too. 

I just don't see Wilson or Fields doing anything here. I don;t see them as an upgrade over Darnold. I would rather go into 2021 season with Darnold than Wilson or Fields. I would love to trade down a few spots and grab Smith or Chase and pick up another first round pick. Watson would be nice but the attitude he is showing and the price the Texans want is really starting to turn me away from him. I think we have all the leverage because we don't have to make this trade. We are in a good spot right now and why mess that up. I would decline Darnolds 5th year option and let him play it out against another vet. If Darnold wins the job and does well you can tag him for a year and see how he does then and if he strings 2 good years together give him the big contract. 

[ekill08x]

21 minutes ago, jetfuel34 said:

You could even add Sanchez, and KOB to that list too. 

I just don't see Wilson or Fields doing anything here. I don;t see them as an upgrade over Darnold. I would rather go into 2021 season with Darnold than Wilson or Fields. I would love to trade down a few spots and grab Smith or Chase and pick up another first round pick. Watson would be nice but the attitude he is showing and the price the Texans want is really starting to turn me away from him. I think we have all the leverage because we don't have to make this trade. We are in a good spot right now and why mess that up. I would decline Darnolds 5th year option and let him play it out against another vet. If Darnold wins the job and does well you can tag him for a year and see how he does then and if he strings 2 good years together give him the big contract. 

Right now anyone is an upgrade over Darnold he is the worst starting QB in football. His inability to process will hold him back no matter what talent is around him. At least Wilson and Fields didnt have turnover issues coming out. Darnold has never gotten over them since college. That and not being able to read and react is a recipe for disaster. I want to believe in him so badly but his red flags are literally screaming at us.

[ekill08x]

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

No. We had good offenses with Vinny, Pennington and Fitz. All 3 had a good group of WRs and a good RB. 

True. THose were fun years too.

[Rockice_8]

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

We've done that and when we didn't prioritize surrounding that QB with talent... look what has happened. Sanchez, Geno, Darnold. We've killed careers bc we haven't done enough around the QB. Sanchez played great in the playoffs for us. He wasn't a good regular season QB. But we got rid of every talent around him. Geno we never gave any talent to. How he went 8-8 his rookie year shows how good he "could have" been if we ever gave him talent. We've never given Darnold talent in 3 years. WE'VE KILLED THE CONFIDENCE OF EVERY YOUNG QB WE'VE EVER DRAFTED. We've had talent on this team in the last 25 years 3-5 times and we had deep playoff runs with 3 of those teams. 1998 with a 35yr old Testaverde (far from an elite QB) with a supporting cast of Martin, Key and Chrebet. 2002 Jets with Pennington (far from and elite QB) with rather the same supporting cast except we had Coles and Moss instead of Key. Fast forward to when we moved on from these QBs to Sanchez and he had Braylon, Holmes, Cotchery, Jones and LT. Then we sucked after letting all those weapons go. And finally had a good team again when? When we prioritized offense again. Not with a QB, but with weapons when we had a 34 year old Fitz at QB for us. But he had a supporting cast of BMarsh, Decker and Ivory. Since then... we haven't had a good offense. Why is that? Bc we haven't prioritized offense. We kept drafting defense and thinking we could start tier 2 and 3 guys in FA along with mid and late round draft picks. And that's what has lead us over the last decade to probably be the worst offensive team over the decade. These weren't world beater QBs going deep into playoffs. These were aging guys or guys we ruined careers on. And we almost made it to a few SBs still.

 

Point being we draft Wilson or Fields and lets say get 1 elite guy in FA on offense... we then have just a few priority picks to add great talent around that rookie QB. Lets say at least 1 or 2 of those picks are on defense. So we are now at 1 or 2 picks to really help the rookie on offense. The odds of that guy being a star or difference maker is small lets remember. So what have we done. We gave the torch to a new QB but really didn't change anything around him. Maybe even wasted a 2nd pick on a guy when if we just gave Darnold talent he could be just as good as that guy and is only a couple years older. We trade back from 2 to lets say 4 and stick with Darnold. Now you are adding him a legit WR in Smith or Chase potentially and more picks like the 35th pick in Round 2. Which could be used on a RB like Etienne or Harris (if they fall that far). To help the offense as a whole... sticking with Darnold is the better option.

 

You also have to realize... you are a lot higher on Wilson than a lot are. 

You act continue to act like we won't add talent around the young QB.  You don't need to remind me of the failures of the previous regime.  I remember them well.  I also am not suggesting we drafts QB and then draft an DT and SS either.  I'm not the only person high on Wilson.  Many well respected people are too for obvious reasons.  I don't however have delusions that Sam after 3 years is just going to magically become a top 10 either.

We don't need to have the chiefs offense year 1 to develop a QB.  If feel like that is the bar you continue to set.  If we don't land two elite WRs and rebuild the OL like the Cowboys from a few years back then the QB can't succeed.

We have 80M to spend in FA and multiple other top 100 picks to put the QB in a great spot year 1.  We may even get another 1st for Sam if the reports are true.  Next year we can add even more with multiple firsts.  This notion that we won't put the young kid in a good position is just not true.

This is a probably a 2-3 year rebuild it's not getting done in one offseason.

[Bobby816]

12 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

You act continue to act like we won't add talent around the young QB.  You don't need to remind me of the failures of the previous regime.  I remember them well.  I also am not suggesting we drafts QB and then draft an DT and SS either.  I'm not the only person high on Wilson.  Many well respected people are too for obvious reasons.  I don't however have delusions that Sam after 3 years is just going to magically become a top 10 either.

We don't need to have the chiefs offense year 1 to develop a QB.  If feel like that is the bar you continue to set.  If we don't land two elite WRs and rebuild the OL like the Cowboys from a few years back then the QB can't succeed.

We have 80M to spend in FA and multiple other top 100 picks to put the QB in a great spot year 1.  We may even get another 1st for Sam if the reports are true.  Next year we can add even more with multiple firsts.  This notion that we won't put the young kid in a good position is just not true.

This is a probably a 2-3 year rebuild it's not getting done in one offseason.

You have no clue who we’d draft. We could very well draft Wilson and then go CB and Edge the next 2 picks. Which in turn doesn’t help out anything on offense. Putting a rookie QB in no different scenario than Darnold except better coaching. Which for all we know might be all Darnold needs. You yourself have said you don’t like an early drafted RB (I believe). So who you grabbing at 23 and 34? Sure an OLineman would be great. But let’s even say at best we resign Elf and sign a guy like Thuney or Scherff (might not happen). Is that rookie starting for us even at OG? Maybe not. Probably would battle Elf for a starting spot. Who you drafting at 34? A WR? That’d be great. But is that guy starting for us opposite Mims? Or is a cheap vet resigned like Perriman starting over him. Meaning the supporting cast isn’t big time upgraded starter wise. 
 

I also think it’d be very optimistic to think we’d use 2, 23 and 34 all on offense. 

[xrade]

Since I mentioned SRP Qb’s in another post, I have been thinking about what JD may do. If we look at JD’s FB upbringing, he was a scout for Balt. from 2000-2014. What was Balt known for and still is:  great D, strong OL and running game. In 2015, he was in Chicago. Again, great D and running game. 2016-2018 in Philly. Great OL and running game. The Philly D was suspect but in 2017, the SB year, they were ranked 4 in D in yds and pts. If we subscribe to the notion that JD has adopted what he was exposed to for 18 years, what can we expect JD to do in order to build this team. My guess is develop a great D, OL and running game.

So what may JD do this offseason?  Keep in mind what follows is what I expect JD to do, not what I would like nor what any fan may like. I am only speculating on the probability of what JD may do.

FA:  resign Maye and Poole. Sign at least one top end WR to start opposite Mims. A WR corp if FA, Crowder and Mims is not bad. Sign at least one iOL he tried last year but it was not to be. He will not fail this year. Sign one second tier OLB, CB, DE, and TE. It could be possible JD goes after a top tier DE but the money has to be right. This may look a little underwhelming, but Balt and Chicago were never big played in FA. Philly was but look at the cap less they are in. I think JD will fill some holes but he won’t win the offseason SB.

Draft:  keep Sam and trade down. JD would like to be in the 8-12 range. Why? It means more high end draft capital and we are still in position to draft a good player at a position of need. Can this happen? Maybe. We would be looking at Car and Den as a trade partner and the price for them may be too much. Conceivably, we could trade with ATL and then with Car or Den but trades like that are rare and difficult. Let suppose we get to the 8-12 range. I can see Surtain or Parsons if available. Or Paye/ Farley/ Pitts. At 23, JD may try trading down again but not too far. However, I can see a top iOL like Davis/Humphrey/Tucker on his radar. The OL will still be a work in progress and just getting a top FA iOL may not be enough. Another option may be Basham if DE is not properly addressed or Horn at CB or Collins at OLB.  At 34 could Trask be an option? Maybe but J would expect another WR like Toney/Marshall/ Moore. I am not a fan of Moore but he may fit in LaFleur’s  scheme and be the future slot. At 66 and 87 is where I expect a QB to be taken along with OLB/RB.

So what has been done?  We upgrade our OL with a premier iOL and drafted a highly rated iOL prospect. With the addition of a top 100 RB, improved iOL and new O scheme our running game should be improved. The D is upgraded with the addition of a top CB prospect, OLB’s, and the DL is improved with a good FA or good prospect. TE may still need work if Herndon continues to not play well, QB may still be a question if Sam, Morgan and rookie can’t do it.

I expect an 8-8 season with multiple FRP and SRP in 2022 and we will still have some cap space to fill a hole or two. By 2022 we can begin talking playoffs.