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2021 Draft Thread


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42 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

No question it’s the player you still have to grade. But let’s be real... if he doesn’t put up the stats he did this last year is he the 2nd pick? And does his WRs easily winning jump balls not help with those inflated stats?

So while a lot of what he does is great regardless of competition and teammates. I think it is time to point out things he needs to work on. Not just talk about him like he’s a star.

The kid had a great OL... so how will he do under pressure in the NFL with our OL (even if improved).

He rushes when under pressure. This is big for me. Bc he does show this when under pressure. And Bc he wants under it a ton. It didn’t affect him much. In the NFL he will get rattled.

He goes through his reads too quick. He left a lot of wide open WRs wide open Bc he rushed and threw into tight coverage instead of going to the next progression.

He sometimes is late with his throws. He got away with this a lot at BYU Bc of poor defenses. He wouldn’t hit a slant for example on time. And would wait for the WR to be open 5yds later and then throw. In the NFL, that doesn’t work.

 

My summary is I like him and will be a huge fan of his. But can we please not a act like he’s polished. He will struggle IMO with game speed and pressure. Doesn’t mean he won’t succeed. Bc I think he will. But he will have a rough start if you ask me.

Yeah no. Every QB has flaws and needs to be more consistent. They all miss open receivers, are late on throws, rush at times, etc...no one has ever said otherwise about Wilson or Lawrence or Fields. 

To assume why it worked and why it didn't though is baseless. We can assume its because of who he played or who he played with and everything in between but there isn't a clear answer.

And any other projections are just that, projections. 

For me its looking at what he does well, how well does that translate to the pros. What is he not so good at and how is that detrimental to them team in the pros. And ultimately it comes down to him getting better and proving his value. 

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44 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

 

He goes through his reads too quick. He left a lot of wide open WRs wide open Bc he rushed and threw into tight coverage instead of going to the next progression.

He sometimes is late with his throws. He got away with this a lot at BYU Bc of poor defenses. He wouldn’t hit a slant for example on time. And would wait for the WR to be open 5yds later and then throw. In the NFL, that doesn’t work.

 

 

This is the flaw he has and you can see it on tape. It’s why people say he throws “jump balls” or balls that would be “picks” in the NFL

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14 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

 

 

I think a lot of fans who are bothered by Wilson getting attention, for whatever reason, are upset because the media is just catching on and its normal around this time. But these guys didn't just watch what he did this year, they went back and saw everything from his freshmen year on and there's growth in his game. This is why the critiques are very empty and baseless. 

I cant wait his first 3 interception game or bad stretch to hear the I told you so's. 

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30 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said:

This is the flaw he has and you can see it on tape. It’s why people say he throws “jump balls” or balls that would be “picks” in the NFL

Perhaps. But, again, look at the placement of the ball. It is where it is his receiver or no one. 

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1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

if he doesn’t put up the stats he did this last year is he the 2nd pick

Is any prospect?

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

And does his WRs easily winning jump balls not help with those inflated stats

I don’t care about stats. I just like that he threw the ball in a perfect location. It was either his receiver or ground. 

 

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

The kid had a great OL... so how will he do under pressure in the NFL with our OL (even if improved).

You can say the same for any QB. This is why I mentioned  in a previous post to evaluate him or any player when he is playing against tough competition. The game against CC is a good example. But I like how the kid plays which I believe will ultimately translate to growth in the NFL. 

 

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

He rushes when under pressure. This is big for me. Bc he does show this when under pressure. And Bc he wants under it a ton. It didn’t affect him much. In the NFL he will get rattled.

Again, most college WB’s run when pressured. It is why I don’t like designed runs for QB’s or, even worse, a QB who thinks he is a RB and tried to take on the tackler. That is how Fields got hurt. Slide, dammit.

He is not a perfect prospect. No one is. It is more about how he plays and does it translate. I believe it does. This debate started more over the competition he faced not about his skills. We differ on that. But I also can’t get over the fact that OSU and Bama QB’s have not succeeded in the NFL for years. Why?  Could it be the system that makes them looks so good does not translate to the NFL?  If Wilson becomes our next QB, I expect his first year to look a lot like his game against CC. He will make some plays that makes you go WOW and some that will make you shake your head. Kind of like Sam. The difference is that this kid will grow and with his god-given talent will be a helluva QB for us.

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9 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/insider/story/_/id/31113560/2021-nfl-draft-qb-class-do-stats-match-tape-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-zach-wilson-others

The article is ESPN+ which I don't have a subscription to, but the first part of it is accessible.  Wilson seems to be one of the best in terms of being under pressure.  

@Bobby816 I have ESPN+, can I posted the article or the important parts? Dont wanna violate forum rules. 

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Who can extend plays under duress?

Under Pressure Over Past 13 Starts

QB TOTAL QBR
PRESSURED
QB TOTAL QBR
BLITZED
2020 FBS averages: 10.0 under pressure, 63.5 when blitzed
Notes: Trey Lance's numbers not available here;
Mills' numbers for past 11 starts
Mac Jones 78.3 Jones 97.3
Zach Wilson 44.0 Wilson 94.5
Kyle Trask 37.5 Trask 86.9
Trevor Lawrence 33.4 Book 82.4
Ian Book 28.2 Fields 81.1
Davis Mills 27.2 Ehlinger 74.4
Jamie Newman 24.3 Mond 73.1
Justin Fields 22.6 Mills 72.9
Kellen Mond 21.2 Lawrence 69.6
Sam Ehlinger 15.3 Buechele 65.1
Feleipe Franks 13.8 Newman 63.4
Shane Buechele 11.0 Franks 48.5

 

Who thrives when airing it out?

Hitting The Deep Ball (20-Plus Yards Downfield) Over Past 13 Starts

QB COMPLETION
PERCENTAGE
QB OFF-TARGET
PERCENTAGE
2020 FBS averages: 34.6% completion, 36.7% off-target

Notes: Mills' numbers for past 11 starts

Jones 60.9% Wilson 13.2%
Franks 57.5% Jones 17.4%
Wilson 56.6% Lawrence 23.7%
Fields 56.4% Fields 27.3%
Trask 50.0% Franks 27.5%
Newman 44.6% Trask 28.3%
Mills 43.4% Book 31.6%
Book 42.1% Mills 32.1%
Lawrence 39.0% Newman 33.8%
Buechele 38.7% Lance 36.5%
Mond 36.7% Ehlinger 41.9%
Lance 32.7% Buechele 48.4%
Ehlinger 29.7% Mond 50.0%

 

Which QB hits his spots the best?

Short-To-Intermediate Off-Target Percentage Over Past 13 Starts

QB 10 OR FEWER YARDS
DOWNFIELD
QB 11-20 YARDS
DOWNFIELD
2020 FBS averages: 5.7% short, 16.7% intermediate
Notes: Mills' numbers for past 11 starts
Jones 3.1% Fields 6.9%
Mond 3.7% Jones 7.6%
Mills 3.7% Lawrence 8.4%
Lawrence 3.8% Wilson 8.5%
Ehlinger 4.0% Trask 8.7%
Franks 4.8% Ehlinger 13.2%
Trask 5.5% Mills 13.6%
Buechele 6.0% Newman 16.4%
Fields 6.1% Buechele 18.8%
Wilson 6.2% Franks 19.1%
Book 6.8% Mond 20.0%
Lance 9.0% Book 21.4%
Newman 9.3% Lance 27.6%

 

What kind of QB are you looking for?

In And Out Of The Pocket Over Past 13 Starts

QB TOTAL QBR
INSIDE POCKET
QB TOTAL QBR
OUTSIDE POCKET
2020 FBS averages: 66.1 in pocket, 63.1 out of pocket
Notes: Lance's numbers not available here;
Mills' numbers for past 11 starts
Jones 95.8 Jones 93.9
Wilson 88.4 Mond 88.8
Fields 88.4 Wilson 86.9
Trask 86.6 Book 81.8
Book 85.3 Ehlinger 74
Buechele 81.5 Fields 71.2
Lawrence 79.8 Lawrence 66.0
Mills 79.6 Mills 65.5
Franks 75.0 Buechele 63.2
Ehlinger 73.1 Franks 54.2
Newman 70.8 Trask 53.5
Mond 67.4 Newman 36.5

 

What does the NFL out route show us?

Hitting The Out Route (11-20 Yards Downfield, Outside The Numbers) Over Past 13 Starts

QB COMPLETION
PERCENTAGE
QB OFF-TARGET
PERCENTAGE
2020 FBS averages: 47.0% completion, 21.7% off-target
Notes: Lance's numbers not available here;
Mills' numbers for past 11 starts

 

Jones 66.7% Fields 4.4%
Franks 66.7% Lawrence 11.9%
Fields 64.4% Wilson 14.3%
Trask 57.4% Jones 14.8%
Wilson 57.1% Trask 16.7%
Buechele 48.9% Newman 20.0%
Lawrence 45.2% Mond 20.8%
Ehlinger 41.7% Franks 20.8%
Book 36.8% Ehlinger 22.2%
Newman 36.0% Buechele 22.2%
Mills 31.4% Mills 22.9%
Mond 22.9% Book 28.9%
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