OROY/DROY 2020

[SmittyBacall]

37 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

I think there's a lot to like with Taylor. There's his production where he went over 2,000 yards of offense each of his 3 seasons in the Big 10. Then the elite size/speed combo running a 4.39 40 at 226lbs puts him right near the top in the NFL for RB's. I thought he showed good patience to let plays develop and had the ability to sift through traffic and once he finds a crease, he consistently utilized his explosiveness well for big gains. He doesn't strike me as being as physical as his size would suggest, as he isn't a Marshawn Lynch type looking for contact, but he still runs through arm tackles with ease. On his highlights you can see once he gets into the second level he is moving so fast and with his size, would be tacklers often times just bounce off of him. 

Definitely nothing to disagree with here. But what I said earlier about needing adequate blocking is reflected in the bolded. He's really good once he gets a head of steam into the second level, breaking through the line unimpeded. But when he doesn't get that head of steam he's not nearly as effective. I didn't see him create on his own. That's huge for me when evaluating backs. Anyone can look great running through open lanes. How do you look when things aren't perfect?

Also, in regards to those yards after contact numbers, how many of those yards were inflated by him brushing off arm tackles at the second level and busting enormous gains? 

41 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

I love this play on a cut back here. The explosion on the jump cut followed by the burst through the hole and finishes it off outrunning the secondary.

He's got some nice vision for sure.

41 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

As for his ability receiving the ball, and being a good RB for Phillip Rivers style of play, I can't say I really agree there. Wisconsin really doesn't emphasize passing the ball to their RB's all that often. If we look at 2 of their recent NFL products that have been successful RB's in James White and Melvin Gordon, both of them have been significantly better in terms of receiving production in the NFL compared to their days playing for the Badgers where they hardly made an impact catching the ball. Given the success that Melvin Gordon had catching the ball with Phillip Rivers throwing to him, I doubt it will be an issue for Taylor who I think will follow suit and be more productive receiving in the NFL. Taylor this past season receiving was more productive than Gordon was in his entire Badger career. Taylor showed some glimpses as a receiver

I get that, but in the 4 or so games I watched I saw him targeted a handful of times (expected for Wisconsin backs), and in one instance he dropped an ugly one. But if he's capable of snagging the ball one-handed, maybe I need to dig more. Regardless, when I think of getting the most out of Philip Rivers, the prototype RB fits closer to a CHE-type, than it does a Taylor-type. He may have some untapped potential there, sure. But I don't foresee him topping the league as a receiver. Being capable and excelling are two entirely different things.

PFF also had this to say below. I don't have access to PFF, but I'd be interested to see the targets, drops, drop percentage, etc. on all college football backs last season. 

Quote

 

3. JONATHAN TAYLOR, WISCONSIN

Draft Board Rank: 80th

Taylor knocks it out of the park from pretty much every production metric. He averaged over 1,300 yards after contact per season over his career to go along with his average of over 70 broken tackles per year. At the same time, though, he was pounded into the dust with 925 carries in only three years. The worry with Taylor is that even after some added emphasis on him in the Wisconsin passing game this year, his hands still looked pretty rough. In total, he dropped eight passes on 50 career catchable targets and had another drop that didn’t count on a play nullified by penalty. That sort of unreliability could limit his role at the next level.

 

 

1 hour ago, tyler735 said:

I don't view the selection of him being redundant with Mack on the roster. Taylor is easily on another level from a talent standpoint. I think Mack is a solid RB playing behind a great OL. He's probably a top 15/top 20 RB, Taylor on the other hand has the ability to much better than that and should be an instant upgrade. I think Mack will still be a great RB #2 for the Colts and should help them have a top level run game for this upcoming season.

He's redundant in the sense that he will be fulfilling the same role. And I think you're underrating just how good Mack is. I'd say he's comfortably outside the top 10 RBs. Look at this man go. Plus, Mack is a free agent after this season. The Taylor pick could just be a means of not having to pay a running back, or leverage in negotiations if they actually want to keep him. I definitely don't think they view Mack as a must-upgrade position on the roster. 

https://twitter.com/search?q=marlon mack&src=typed_query&f=video

Right now with Taylor, I see a track athlete with some good vision. With Indy's offensive line, they have the luxury of taking an upside guy like that, who excels with a supporting cast like that. We'll see how this shakes out. I can see him being really productive, even early in his career. I just don't see anything special. I'll try and watch some more soon.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2020-nfl-draft-position-rankings-running-backs

[tyler735]

21 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Definitely nothing to disagree with here. But what I said earlier about needing adequate blocking is reflected in the bolded. He's really good once he gets a head of steam into the second level, breaking through the line unimpeded. But when he doesn't get that head of steam he's not nearly as effective. I didn't see him create on his own. That's huge for me when evaluating backs. Anyone can look great running through open lanes. How do you look when things aren't perfect?

I guess that's where we disagree a bit then. He undoubtedly had a great OL at Wisconsin, but he wasn't just running through wide open holes. His vision, patience, cutback ability, ability to sift through traffic, and explosiveness created a ton of yardage that many other RB's don't get. 

 

21 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Also, in regards to those yards after contact numbers, how many of those yards were inflated by him brushing off arm tackles at the second level and busting enormous gains? 

Probably quite a few, but that's the thing he has excellent explosiveness, so he is still outrunning pursuit/angles in the 2nd level that many RB's aren't able to after breaking an arm tackle. I'd note he was still among the top in NCAA in broken tackles as well each of his 3 seasons. This type of play isn't out of the norm from Taylor where he exhibits so many positive RB traits:

 

21 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

He's got some nice vision for sure.

I get that, but in the 4 or so games I watched I saw him targeted a handful of times (expected for Wisconsin backs), and in one instance he dropped an ugly one. But if he's capable of snagging the ball one-handed, maybe I need to dig more. Regardless, when I think of getting the most out of Philip Rivers, the prototype RB fits closer to a CHE-type, than it does a Taylor-type. He may have some untapped potential there, sure. But I don't foresee him topping the league as a receiver. Being capable and excelling are two entirely different things.

PFF also had this to say below. I don't have access to PFF, but I'd be interested to see the targets, drops, drop percentage, etc. on all college football backs last season. 

Yeah he is a bit of an unknown in that regard, and the drops are obviously a concern. I don't think he will ever be a top tier receiving back, but he has shown some flashes of being able to make plays catching out of the backfield. In those vids in the previous post and plays like this come to mind:

Given the limitations of the Badgers system for RB's getting thrown to, the flashes he showed, and playing with Rivers, I think he could be in that 300-500 yards receiving range in the NFL.

21 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

He's redundant in the sense that he will be fulfilling the same role. And I think you're underrating just how good Mack is. I'd say he's comfortably outside the top 10 RBs. Look at this man go. Plus, Mack is a free agent after this season. The Taylor pick could just be a means of not having to pay a running back, or leverage in negotiations if they actually want to keep him. I definitely don't think they view Mack as a must-upgrade position on the roster. 

I don't think I am. I think he's an average starting RB playing behind a top tier OL. Despite playing behind an OL that in some metrics graded out as elite, he still only put up 4.4 ypc this past season. For example, the next 2 leading rushers on the Colts last season were Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams they accounted for 100 carries and averaged 5.42 ypc behind that OL (Wilkins- 6.0 ypc, and Williams- 4.8 ypc). I don't regard Wilkins or Williams as anything more than decent depth pieces, but they are still able to go out and put up quality numbers behind that OL.

 

I'd take these guys over Mack at this point:

Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordan, Le'veon Bell, Joe Mixon, Todd Gurley* (health), 

Then you have guys like these that could be argued as better RB options than Mack:

Phillip Lindsay, Raheem Mostert, Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders, Leonard Fournette

This isn't even factoring in the incoming rookies.

 

It seems the Colts made a bit of a statement with the Taylor pick. As you mentioned, it's a contract year for Mack. The Colts didn't just sit back in the 2nd round and let BPA fall to them, they went out of their way to trade up in the 2nd round to take him. I think that says a lot about how the Colts view those 2 RB's. 

 

21 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Right now with Taylor, I see a track athlete with some good vision. With Indy's offensive line, they have the luxury of taking an upside guy like that, who excels with a supporting cast like that. We'll see how this shakes out. I can see him being really productive, even early in his career. I just don't see anything special. I'll try and watch some more soon.

Yeah it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I think he landed on the perfect team to get the most out of his abilities. 

[buno67]

now say Baker has a huge year, will Wills get enough credit to be in play for OROY or no?

[DerbyRam]

2010 - Sam Bradford - Rams 
2011 - Cam Newton - Panthers
2012 - Robert Griffin - Redskins
2013 - Eddie Lacy - Packers - rushed for over 1000 yards with 11 touchdowns
2014 - Odell Beckham Jr - Giants - over 1300 receiving yards with 12 touchdowns
2015 - Todd Gurley - Rams - rushed for over 1100 yards with 10 touchdowns
2016 - Dak Prescott - Cowboys
2017 - Alvin Kamara - Saints - over 1400 all purposes yards with 13 touchdowns
2018 - Saquon Barkley - Giants - over 2000 all purposes yards with 15 touchdowns
2019 - Kyler Murray - Cardinals

The above shows that unless an offensive player has an outstanding season then the rookie QB who keeps his head above water is most likely to win it. With that in mind, I think both Tua and Burrow will do enough to make sure one of them has it at the end of the season. I wouldn't rule out Herbert either. The running backs are in too much of a committee to put up the numbers Barkley did. CeeDee Lamb if he pushes ahead of Gallup and Amari has a chance, especially if he's on around 1300 receiving yards at the end of the it. I think it would take 10+ touchdowns and 1300 yards to even get into the conversation.  

[SnoopDogg]

Burrow and Young

[Drained]

Burrow. No one else getting OROY cause he's a QB.

And also on top of that, Tua and Herbert aren't going to play for the first half of the season, maybe one of them sits out. So. I wouldnt bet on them.