A 2021 MOCK DRAFT (TDN)

[Karnage84]

Now that the 2020 draft has just ended, why not look ahead and see how things could play out. I will preface this by saying I don't expect or want the team to really go with this approach. I have higher expectations for us in 2020. However, according to Las Vegas, the Lions are expected to be picking #7 overall in the 2021 draft. This means a few things happened. 

2021 Record - Estimated to be 5-11 (Panthers record at #7 in 2019)

- Stafford was injured and/or bad play (possibly from injury)

- Hockenson hasn't lived up to the #8 overall selection (possibly due to injuries again)

- Poor OL play

- WR's have underperformed. Relying on veterans like Marvin and Danny backfires and leaves us without a lot of good, young depth

- Defensive struggles to stop the run and get a pass rush

- Trufant is washed up, leaving Okudah, a rookie CB, practically alone in the secondary

Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn are fired. The Ford family hires an offensive minded HC with more of a KC, spread style offensive scheme. Defense moves away from the big, un-athletic guys that the Lions have a preference towards for smaller, faster and dynamic guys. 

With this kind of change, the team will likely make a lot of minor trades to offload some of the players who are unable to move towards the new system (principally on defense) and make a bunch of FA signings. This would be a complete rebuild with a five year mandate. 

THE DRAFT

#7 - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: This could be Lawrence, Justin Fields or Jamie Newman. Fields was the first QB taken in this simulation leaving Lawrence here. The Lions end the Matthew Stafford era begin with a young signal caller. 

#22 - Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson: This pick comes from the trade of Matthew Stafford to the New England Patriots. Stafford's cap hit becomes much more manageable and BB decides to upgrade at QB for a shot at another ring. 

#39 - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama: With a young QB on the roster, it is time to protect him. Leatherwood could play RT or LT if they have moved on from Decker

#71 - Luke Farrell, TE, Ohio State: A young QB's favourite target is usually a reliable TE. Pairing Hockenson and Farrell does help in providing some tools for Lawrence

#103 - Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State: A smaller yet dynamic WR that is a downfield threat. A trio of Golladay, Ross and Wallace provide some nice weapons moving forward. 

#135 - Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami: A dynamic playmaker, should help with the transition to this new scheme

#167 - Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State: An athletic LB with good size. Likely replacement for Jarrad Davis

 

[LionArkie]

I'm still mulling over the 2020 draft! But yes, give me Trevor Lawrence!  Then give me a DL, i've been screaming for it all the way back to the 2020 draft!

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

I'd be so sad if we moved on from Quinn and Patricia and shifted the defensive scheme... again. We'd have so many useless pieces on the roster... so many bad contracts. Sure, we'd have "hope", but we all know what that gets you: the start of a rebuild and more setbacks.

I also wouldn't want a TE that early with Hockenson on the roster.

Anyway, this thread made me sad.

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I'd be so sad if we moved on from Quinn and Patricia and shifted the defensive scheme... again. We'd have so many useless pieces on the roster... so many bad contracts. Sure, we'd have "hope", but we all know what that gets you: the start of a rebuild and more setbacks.

I also wouldn't want a TE that early with Hockenson on the roster.

Anyway, this thread made me sad.

You're looking at a 3rd round TE vs #8 overall. 

If the Lions are picking #7 overall, which Vegas is predicting, then we will be looking at a complete roster overhaul. I don't expect that this is going to happen and I certainly don't want to see it but the 2021 Big Boards are already going to be so out of whack that I didn't want to stray too far outside of things. 

As is usually the case, when a team makes a change in a HC, they tend to go the opposite: 

HC: Defensive minded > Offensive minded

Offense: Run-heavy, ball control > Spread, pass happy 

Defense: rush 3, cover 8 (man heavy), emphasis on stopping run,  multiple out of 3-4 base; 250 lb LB's, etc. > smaller, quicker, athletic LB's, more emphasis on pass rush

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

5 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

You're looking at a 3rd round TE vs #8 overall. 

If the Lions are picking #7 overall, which Vegas is predicting, then we will be looking at a complete roster overhaul. I don't expect that this is going to happen and I certainly don't want to see it but the 2021 Big Boards are already going to be so out of whack that I didn't want to stray too far outside of things. 

As is usually the case, when a team makes a change in a HC, they tend to go the opposite: 

HC: Defensive minded > Offensive minded

Offense: Run-heavy, ball control > Spread, pass happy 

Defense: rush 3, cover 8 (man heavy), emphasis on stopping run,  multiple out of 3-4 base; 250 lb LB's, etc. > smaller, quicker, athletic LB's, more emphasis on pass rush

If we're doing a complete roster overhaul, I think that 3rd should be spent elsewhere. Of course, I'd defend it if it seemed like the right prospect. It's just painful to see.

[Karnage84]

13 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

If we're doing a complete roster overhaul, I think that 3rd should be spent elsewhere. Of course, I'd defend it if it seemed like the right prospect. It's just painful to see.

That's warranted. He was BPA and following the trend of giving a new QB weapons while in the process of a rebuild. Have to start on one side of the ball. 

[Sllim Pickens]

A few things with this.  If there was any chance Lawrence lasts until pick 7, we would have to take him.  But I would be sad we are picking at 7 again.  If we are picking that high, we would need to hire someone who can run  similar philosophy as MP to best utilize our players.  The only "bad contracts" would be Flowers and Collins, but again if used right in another system they could be useful.  

As for the rest of the draft, if we pick a TE that high it would again show why Quin should be let go, as it would mean his top 8 pick is not doing well transitioning to the NFL.  I like improving the offense as we hopefully have a solid core of running backs so adding another top WR and OL would be huge.  Overall I wouldn't be mad at the direction of this draft if we were to suck again and trade Stafford to a real team to have a chance at winning.   

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

A few things with this.  If there was any chance Lawrence lasts until pick 7, we would have to take him.  But I would be sad we are picking at 7 again.  If we are picking that high, we would need to hire someone who can run  similar philosophy as MP to best utilize our players.  The only "bad contracts" would be Flowers and Collins, but again if used right in another system they could be useful.  

As for the rest of the draft, if we pick a TE that high it would again show why Quin should be let go, as it would mean his top 8 pick is not doing well transitioning to the NFL.  I like improving the offense as we hopefully have a solid core of running backs so adding another top WR and OL would be huge.  Overall I wouldn't be mad at the direction of this draft if we were to suck again and trade Stafford to a real team to have a chance at winning.   

Quinn would not be the GM in this scenario. For the record, I want to see Stafford win a Super Bowl in Honolulu blue. I would love to see that happen with Patricia and Quinn. 

This is a draft based on the odds coming out of Vegas. If we're picking #7 overall, bad things have happened and a new coach and GM combo are coming in. Swift would still fit the offense or the offense might be an even better fit for him. Ex. If Eric Bieniemy is the guy and brings in that KC offense. 

Hockenson could be that great of a player talent wise but he could struggle with injuries and be a Jordan Reed-esque player. I sure hope not. If we're picking #7 overall, something like that had to happen. 

 

[LionArkie]

29 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

A few things with this.  If there was any chance Lawrence lasts until pick 7, we would have to take him.  But I would be sad we are picking at 7 again.  If we are picking that high, we would need to hire someone who can run  similar philosophy as MP to best utilize our players.  The only "bad contracts" would be Flowers and Collins, but again if used right in another system they could be useful.  

As for the rest of the draft, if we pick a TE that high it would again show why Quin should be let go, as it would mean his top 8 pick is not doing well transitioning to the NFL.  I like improving the offense as we hopefully have a solid core of running backs so adding another top WR and OL would be huge.  Overall I wouldn't be mad at the direction of this draft if we were to suck again and trade Stafford to a real team to have a chance at winning.   

I think there are going to be very unrealistic expectations on Okudah by fans.  That position takes a couple of years to set into.  To rely on him the way this team is going to is going to be tough on him.  I think this is why the loss of Slay was so huge.  I know we have Trufant, but if Trufant doesn't work out it all falls on Okudah.  If this is the situation, I think then the issue with Quinn and MP would be the dealings with Slay more so than drafting Okudah. In a perfect world, I would have really felt good about Slay, Trufant, Okudah. Then you set the rookie up to truly succeed.

 

***edit, I read your post totally wrong and my post probably doesn't make sense.  I thought you were saying it meant Okudah was a failed pick. My bad...you know that whole reading comprehension thing.

Edited April 29, 2020 by LionArkie

[Karnage84]

3 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I think there are going to be very unrealistic expectations on Okudah by fans.  That position takes a couple of years to set into.  To rely on him the way this team is going to is going to be tough on him.  I think this is why the loss of Slay was so huge.  I know we have Trufant, but if Trufant doesn't work out it all falls on Okudah.  If this is the situation, I think then the issue with Quinn and MP would be the dealings with Slay more so than drafting Okudah. In a perfect world, I would have really felt good about Slay, Trufant, Okudah. Then you set the rookie up to truly succeed.

 

***edit, I read your post totally wrong and my post probably doesn't make sense.  I thought you were saying it meant Okudah was a failed pick. My bad...you know that whole reading comprehension thing.

It wasn't about Okudah being a bad pick, it was Trufant being over the hill. Okudah is a rookie and even though I think he'll be a very good player, it's a lot to place on a young guy. Amani could also turn out to be a special player or a viable back up guy or just a guy as a 5th round pick. Just saying - if we're picking at #7 overall, things have not worked out well for this team for a variety of reasons. Secondary issues being one of them. 

[Sllim Pickens]

17 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I think there are going to be very unrealistic expectations on Okudah by fans.  That position takes a couple of years to set into.  To rely on him the way this team is going to is going to be tough on him.  I think this is why the loss of Slay was so huge.  I know we have Trufant, but if Trufant doesn't work out it all falls on Okudah.  If this is the situation, I think then the issue with Quinn and MP would be the dealings with Slay more so than drafting Okudah. In a perfect world, I would have really felt good about Slay, Trufant, Okudah. Then you set the rookie up to truly succeed.

 

***edit, I read your post totally wrong and my post probably doesn't make sense.  I thought you were saying it meant Okudah was a failed pick. My bad...you know that whole reading comprehension thing.

Yeah, it was aimed more at Hock.  And his lack of drafting over a stretch of time to take us from a playoff team to a 5-11 team.  I think we will end up closer to 8-8, which still isnt good enough, IMO, but will likely buy them another year.  I do feel like this was BQs best draft as far as value along with addressing team needs.  I dont think we reached on anyone for the first time, especially in earlier rounds.  So we will see, but I still am not confident in MPs ability to coach the talent.  If we are 5-11, I think those concerns would be confirmed. 

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Yeah, it was aimed more at Hock.  And his lack of drafting over a stretch of time to take us from a playoff team to a 5-11 team.  I think we will end up closer to 8-8, which still isnt good enough, IMO, but will likely buy them another year.  I do feel like this was BQs best draft as far as value along with addressing team needs.  I dont think we reached on anyone for the first time, especially in earlier rounds.  So we will see, but I still am not confident in MPs ability to coach the talent.  If we are 5-11, I think those concerns would be confirmed. 

Yeah. I think the threshold is 7-9 with some issues like major injuries, etc. Assuming a more regular season, 8-8 or 9-7  with a couple close L's gets them another year. That has us moving into year 4 of the "Don't call it a rebuild" rebuild. 

2020 - .500 or better

2021 - Playoffs or bust

[BZski]

I think the Lions will make the playoffs this year. That being said I would like Lawrence but there is noway he drops to #7 IMO. He will be the #1 pick next year IMO without any doubts.

I really like what BQ and Matty P are building. The draft this year was OUTSTANDING! 

[Karnage84]

50 minutes ago, BZski said:

I think the Lions will make the playoffs this year. That being said I would like Lawrence but there is noway he drops to #7 IMO. He will be the #1 pick next year IMO without any doubts.

I really like what BQ and Matty P are building. The draft this year was OUTSTANDING! 

I think the team will wind up somewhere between 7-9 to 11-5. There's a good chance that we just miss out on the playoffs but we could also be knocking on the door. I don't think the Bears have really solved their issues although they do have Foles to fall back on if Trubisky keeps being Trubisky. The niceties of the Lafleur/Rodgers relationship last year seems to have worn away quickly. This could brew and create some issues for the Packers. They weren't what their record said. The Vikings are really the team to beat in the division but they have warts of their own. 

Lawrence is going in the top 3. He'll either be #1, #2 or #3 depending on how things shake out with the teams at those picks and what Justin Fields does on the field. Tua was a lock for #1 overall until the injury issues and Burrow came from out of nowhere to be the #1 overall pick. I just took the guy that was there in the sim. It could just as easily be Fields or Newman. If the Lions are picking in the top 10 again, the Foxborough Boys are out. 

This draft is just based on the Vegas odds and the TDN simulator. Not where I think or expect the team to be next year. 

[NFL_Fan]

I kknow this a Mock and not a draft discussion but anyone see Malik Hooker has a litter brother Marcus Hooker that plays S for OSU. Wonder how he'll turn out. I thinkk I saw he was a redshhirt freshman