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Will 2020 Season Start In Sept?


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17 hours ago, TitanLegend said:

Then there's the absurd rate of cases that are asymptomatic(In Tennessee there was 1200+ cases across couple prisons I believe it was, 98% of those were asymptomatic and 0% required hospitalization, in a Nashville homeless shelter 88 tested positive, all 88 were asymptomatic, at a pork plant in Missouri 370+ people tested positive for the virus, all were asymptomatic.

I was under the assumption (mostly from reading articles online) that they were only testing people who displayed symptoms to reduce test consumption. Why are they testing mass groups of asymptomatic people when tests are at a premium? Not sure if I believe that.

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3 hours ago, August4th said:

I wonder what they'll do with at risk coaches, front office people, media, refs etc. I bet their are several older people at those positions who don't have a clean bill of health


Front office guys could probably work from home? 

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9 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I was under the assumption (mostly from reading articles online) that they were only testing people who displayed symptoms to reduce test consumption. Why are they testing mass groups of asymptomatic people when tests are at a premium? Not sure if I believe that.

I'm not sure, to be honest. The state did the prison testing apparently, and in Tennessee you can go to any health department and get tested for free and they've done some mass testings over weekends in April(I'm not sure if they're still doing that), so getting a test in Tennesse hasn't been an issue for the past month or so. Not sure how it is in other states.

Here's the sources for those, though:

Missouri pork plant: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html

Tennessee prison: https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/01/tennessee-testing-all-inmates-prison-staff-after-multiple-outbreaks/3067388001/

88 homeless: https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2020/05/03/nashville-homeless-shelter-covid-19-coronavirus-tennessee/3074827001/

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Peter King interviews Dr. Fauci. It's a good read. Some things that stood out to me.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/05/11/nfl-season-dr-fauci-coronavirus-fmia-peter-king/

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Talking to Fauci was enlightening, if only to reinforce what most people in America who care to be informed about this coronavirus are thinking right now: We don’t know the future. Anthony Fauci doesn’t know the future either. Our fate, and certainly the NFL’s fate in 2020, depends on so many things we can’t know now—how long this spread will last, how severe the second wave of it will be later this year or early in 2021, whether we can go into a football season, college or pro, with any certainty it will play out till its conclusion, whether fans will attend no games or all of them this season. I wanted Fauci to tell me, and tell the country, whether we’ll be able to play out the 256-game regular season the NFL just announced, with a February Super Bowl, and some bit of normalcy back in this abnormal world.

But Dr. Fauci couldn’t say, because no one can.

“The virus,” he said, “will make the decision for us.”

 

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The question we all have, I believe, is whether it makes sense to aim for negative-testing pro football players to compete in empty stadiums starting in September. Fauci suggested stadiums might not have to be empty all season.

“I think it’s feasible that negative testing players could play to an empty stadium,” Fauci said. “Is it guaranteed? No way . . . There will be virus out there and you will know your players are negative at the time they step onto the field. You’re not endangering . . . Also, if the virus is so low that even in the general community the risk is low, then I could see filling a third of the stadium or half the stadium so people could be six feet apart. I mean, that’s something that is again feasible depending on the level of infection. I keep getting back to that: It’s going to depend. Like, right now, if you fast forward, and it is now September. The season starts. I say you can’t have a season—it’s impossible. There’s too much infection out there. It doesn’t matter what you do. But I would hope that by the time you get to September it’s not gonna be the way it is right now.”

 

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“If you really want to be in a situation where you want to be absolutely certain, you’d test all the players before the game. And you say, Those who are infected: Sorry, you’re sidelined. Those who are free: Get in there and play.

And test more than once a week, if you can.

“If I test today, and I’m negative, you don’t know if I got exposed tomorrow . . . There’s no guarantee that you’re going to get exposed and be positive the next day. To give you an example, you’re probably reading in the newspapers that there’s an infection in the White House. I was exposed to that person. So I immediately got tested. I am negative. So, I’m negative yesterday. I don’t know if I’m going to be negative Monday. Understand? It’s almost an impossible situation. To be 100 percent sure, you’ve got to test every day. But that’s not practical and that’s never going to happen. But you can diminish dramatically by testing everybody Saturday night, Sunday morning, and say OK, only negative players play.”

 

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“As for the football season and what the fall is going to be: It will be entirely dependent on the effectiveness with which we as a society respond to the inevitable outbreak that will occur. So what are the options? If we let it just go, and we don’t have a good response, you can have an outbreak somewhat similar. Probably not as bad, because we got hit really with a 1-2 punch, particularly in New York City and New Orleans and Chicago. But we can expect an outbreak that would be serious. That’s if we do nothing. So it’s inconceivable that we would do nothing. What we’re saying is what is going to be the effectiveness of our response? . . .

“Now, even if the virus goes down dramatically in June and July and August, as the virus starts returning in the fall, it would be in my mind, shame on us if we don’t have in place all of the mechanisms to prevent it from blowing up again. In other words, enough testing to test everybody that needs to be tested. Enough testing so that when someone gets infected, you could immediately do contact tracing and isolation to prevent the infection from going to a couple of infections to hundreds of infections. That’s how you control an outbreak.

“So, practically speaking, the success or failure, the ability or not, to actually have a football season is going to depend on just on what I said . . . but what I’m really saying is it’s unpredictable depending upon how we respond in the fall.”

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I'm guessing different states will be in different status throughout the Fall

So for example, if Maryland is open - can the Ravens host a game with fans present and a divisional opponent who is closed ? What happens when its time to play in CLE or CIN if Ohio is still on shutdown with no fans allowed ? That's not really fair to the Ohio teams

Its going to be really hard to level the playing field because fans/ no fans can impact the outcome AND certainly the revenue earned.
Some teams earning ticket, beer, parking cash while others would not ?

Also, have we seen the last post-game handshake from the coaches ? 
 

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snippets from an article from The Athletic

Average prices on the secondary market for NFL games since the schedule release Thursday night are $391, which is up 51 percent from 2019, with only four teams down; the New England Patriots, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears, according to TicketIQ. The 51 percent rise is by far the largest year over year increase TicketIQ has tracked. In fact, demand is skyrocketing for the Las Vegas Raiders in their new home, with the average ticket price on the secondary market at $1,098, up 527 percent.

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I believe we'll see football in September at one point. It might be preseason or camps but I think, they will start something. A lot of money will be lost in ads and whatnot if they don't play. As for college, I could see them canceling non-conference games and playing only conference games or starting late as well. 

MC

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6 minutes ago, August4th said:

get a idea of what the NFL might have to do but on a bigger scale due to bigger rosters/coaching staffs

What happens if a bunch of star players test positive before The Big Game ?
And how will the opponent feel about playing a team that just had an outbreak ?

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On 5/7/2020 at 6:22 AM, SmittyBacall said:

I was under the assumption (mostly from reading articles online) that they were only testing people who displayed symptoms to reduce test consumption. Why are they testing mass groups of asymptomatic people when tests are at a premium? Not sure if I believe that.

You test groups to group studies. A prison, for example, is a captive population. Sure enough, almost everyone got it, though most did not notice. You also test people to see if they have recovered already. 

The bad news is that masks and distancing did not work. The good news is that this is a very easy virus if you don't have a risk factor. We knew it was 98% survivable. We are finding it's more like 99.8% for the young and healthy. If there had not been major exposures in nursing homes and long term care facilities, the whole thing might have ended by now. 

As to the point of the thread, I predict training camp and a 17 week season.

J

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