Evaluate the Vikings 2020 draft

[Cearbhall]

32 minutes ago, Heimdallr said:

I find it hard to give any sort of grade to 6th/7th round picks. The majority of them don't even make it out of training camp. Just try to find guys that fit the scheme or have a trait you like and see what happens. 

Pretty much agree. I do think that the Vikings later picks have desirable traits -- most notably they were all leaders on their teams. 

[Krauser]

Second tier of the draft is for rotational players, starters in limited roles, and depth/development/upside picks at premium positions. 

Cameron Dantzler is a cornerback who was exceptionally good in man coverage in the SEC. 

Dantzler is unusually tall and thin for a football player. He tested surprisingly poorly at the combine, running a 4.64 that was at odds with the speed he'd shown in games. The slow time was reportedly due to him gaining too much bad weight for the weigh in (he weighed 188, but it looks like he played at 175-180). Dantzler later ran a 4.38 hand timed at a makeshift pro day. That number may be misleading in the opposite direction. 

Turn on the tape, and Dantzler looks athletic, with impressive coverage skills. He has quick feet, and plays with balance despite his awkward build. He's fast enough to run downfield with anyone. He does a great job in press man coverage, disrupting routes without holding, turning to run in phase, getting his head around and finding the ball, and contesting catches without interfering. Dantzler also plays with an attitude. He sticks his nose in as a tackler and he competes hard in coverage. He's thin and light enough that he can get pushed off routes at the top of breaks, but he doesn't back down. 

Dantzler seems like the most natural fit on the roster to replace Xavier Rhodes' role circa 2017, as a man coverage corner who follows the opposing team's WR1. In college, he did an excellent job in one game where he shadowed Ja'marr Chase of LSU, an expected top 5 pick next year.

The Vikings definitely need a man coverage outside CB. Hughes has skills but he's undersized, and he struggled in that role in the Cowboys game. Holton Hill is bigger but plays mostly off coverage and zone, and Gladney's experience is mostly in zone. The strength of Zimmer's defense is its complex system of zone coverage, but sometimes the easiest thing is if you can put your guy on their guy and shut him down. Dantzler was unusually good at that role in college: red zone targets thrown into his coverage went 1/15 for zero TDs. 

Dantzler is a boom-or-bust prospect -- it's unclear whether his physical frame and (possibly limited) athleticism will allow his skills to translate to the NFL. But that's a fair risk to take for a potentially valuable payoff of a plus starter at a high value position. If he is able to make the leap, given his skillset and its potential value to the scheme, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dantzler playing early as a rookie. 

The value was good with this pick -- Dantzler was a consensus 3rd rounder and that's where the Vikings took him.

Pick grade: A 

DJ Wonnum is a developmental edge rusher prospect. 

He's tall and long (6'5" with 34" arms) but fairly lean (258 pounds). His combine testing was strong (4.73 40, the jumps were good) but not amazing (agility tests were only OK). He's a plus athlete, but more on the level of Weatherly than Hunter. 

Like Hunter, Wonnum wasn't especially productive in college: put up 4.5 sacks and 9 TFLs in his senior year. His best year was actually his sophomore year: 6 sacks and 13 TFLs. His production seems to have been limited by his role in the scheme. He was often used as an OLB, dropping into coverage, or as a 3-4 DE, playing contain without rushing upfield. Stephen Weatherly had similar role in college.  

On tape, Wonnum reminds me more of Weatherly than Hunter. Like Weatherly, Wonnum is tall and looks athletic but he doesn’t change directions quickly and often seems a beat slow to react. He ends up dancing with blockers without disengaging or pushing them back. Makes some plays in pursuit and with second effort but doesn't often win with his first move.

Fans have been comparing Wonnum to Hunter, who was the last developmental edge rusher the Vikings took around this point in the draft. The comparison is unfair. Hunter is an elite athlete and while his sack totals at LSU were low, he led the SEC in TFLs at the age of 20. Wonnum will be a 23 year old rookie. At that age, Hunter was already in his 3rd year with the Vikings, and started 16 games on the NFL's #1 defense. 

I think Weatherly is a better comparison for Wonnum. He'll be more of a project. I think his realistic ceiling is similar to what Weatherly developed into -- a good rotational / backup DE. 

DL coach Andre Patterson coveted Wonnum in the draft. The pick was a reach by the consensus board, which had Wonnum as a late 5th round value. I'm a little nervous about over drafting a player by special request of the position coach -- the same process that led to the Willie Beavers pick ("because he can dent people").

For a 4th rounder, this pick only fully pays off if Wonnum becomes a good starter. I'm not optimistic that happens, so I don't like the value here. 

Pick grade: D

James Lynch is a DE/DT with some pass rushing skills. 

Lynch played mostly at DE for Baylor last year, but  he does have some experience lining up inside. From PFF's charting, he was more productive as an outside rusher. 

Lynch's production was excellent: 13.5 sacks and 19 TFLs last year, both top 10 in college football. He also registered 5 batted passes, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 blocked FGs. Batted passes in particular are an indication that pass rush skills are more likely to translate to the NFL (Danielle Hunter had a lot of them in his last year at LSU), so this is a promising profile.

Lynch is athletic enough. He's undersized for an NFL DT at 289 pounds, but he's got elite agility in tests.  That shows up on the field -- he plays with quickness.  He's also got decent hand fighting skills as a pass rusher.

The Vikings seemingly every year draft a DL or DE in the 4th round, hoping to find a 3-tech DT who can rush the passer and play 3rd downs. Previous experiments (Jaleel Johnson, Jalyn Holmes) haven't gone well, and Lynch may need to beat them out for a spot on the roster. I think there's a good chance he sticks, at least as a nickel pass rusher. 

The consensus board had Lynch as a late 3rd round pick. Value was very good as the Vikings landed him near the end of the 4th.

Even better: the Vikings got this pick by trading down from the end of the 3rd round (a comp pick they'd received for Sheldon Richardson) with the Saints, moving down 25 spots to the late 4th, and adding a 5th, a 6th and a 7th in the process. The trade with the Saints ended up as a 4 for 1: the Vikings comp pick was used by NO on a small school TE, Adam Trautman, and in return the Vikings got James Lynch, Harrison Hand, Blake Brandel and Nate Stanley. That's an excellent haul. 

Pick grade: A

Troy Dye is an athletic linebacker. 

Dye is tall and thin for the position -- listed at 6'4" 224 in college, but measured as 6'3" 231 at the combine, he has a similar size and built to Jayron Kearse. He was injured and didn't do the drills at the combine, but later put up good athletic testing numbers at a homemade pro day. 

Dye played as a full time off-ball linebacker for 4 years at Oregon. PFF graded him well in run defense and in coverage, and he was effective as a pass rusher (blitzer) as well. He led his team in tackles every year, and actually led his defense in sacks (6.5) and TFLs (13.0) as a freshman. He also was a team leader and fan favorite.

Dye particularly excels at covering TEs up the seam, and his length can make a difference in more standard underneath zone coverage as well. He moves smoothly and he's fast. The downside is that he's lightweight, and not especially hard-nosed. He's not great against the run, and has his share of missed tackles.

For the Vikings, Dye profiles similarly to Eric Wilson -- a coverage OLB who can play in nickel. He may be able to win a starting role (replacing Gedeon/Wilson) if he's not too much of a liability in the run game especially against heavier teams that will tend to keep the Vikings in base defense (Seattle, SF, now maybe GB). Still, coverage is more valuable than anything else for linebackers, and Dye might have a lot to offer against more spread style offenses or teams where TEs are major receiving threats (PHI, CHI, KC, etc). 

The value was good for this pick. Dye was projected to go in the early 4th by the consensus board, and PFF had him graded as a late 2nd / early 3rd (just behind Ezra Cleveland on their big board). 

Pick grade: B

...

All 4 picks in the 2nd tier of the Vikings draft have upside but relatively low floors -- the classic boom-or-bust. That's a fine strategy for this stage of the draft -- the value in adding a potential starter or major contributor makes it worthwhile rolling the dice. With 4 lottery tickets, we can hope that one of them exceeds expectation and becomes a starter, and that another 1-2 become major contributors (like an outside CB3, DE3, nickel DT pass rusher, or LB3). 

I'd grade the 2nd tier of the Vikings draft as a B+/A-.

[Krauser]

Bottom tier of the draft (roughly the mid 5th round onward) is for special teams and developmental depth. The realistic upside is for a reliable backup or role player. Any starters or stars found here are home runs. 

The Vikings had 8 of the last 86 picks of this year's draft -- nearly 10%.

They added that many players while still trading twice for future picks, landing the Bears 4th round pick in 2021 and a 5th round pick in 2021 from the Ravens that had originally belonged to the Steelers. Pittsburgh might be a middle-of-the-pack team this year, and Chicago might end up picking top 5-10, so those 2 picks combined in value could equal a late 3rd rounder. In other words, those trades will net something close to the same draft capital as the comp pick the Vikings got for Sheldon Richardson or Trae Waynes.

The picks they traded out of this year landed some good players -- the Bears took an athletic edge rusher who I thought might appeal to the Vikings before they took Wonnum (Trevis Gipson) and the Ravens took a safety that PFF thought highly of (Geno Stone). But in the end, trading out of those picks, still drafting 8 lottery tickets this year, and adding 2 reasonably valuable picks next year (which should both be in the 2nd tier of the draft) was very smart management.

Trades grade: A

Harrison Hand is a cornerback who may end up moving to safety.

He's got good size and power (elite jumps) but only average speed and fairly poor agility. That athletic testing matches his film, which shows him playing a physical game, both in coverage and as a tackler. He hits hard. He's not great in coverage, tending to get lost on deeper routes. I couldn't find much film of him actually making plays in coverage, though he did record a few interceptions.

Hand could project as a depth outside CB with special teams ability, another Kris Boyd. I think there's a chance the Vikings will try him as a box safety or slot corner, where his nose for the ball and tackling ability would be real assets. I'm not sure his coverage skills will hold up in man-to-man situations in the slot but he might do better with more underneath stuff instead of trying to track deep routes. And he'd be a weapon coming downhill to blow up running plays and screens.

The Vikings have tried switching a couple of bigger corners to safety under Zimmer -- Antone Exum and Jack Tocho -- and I could see them trying again with Hand. I do think he's good enough to make the roster as a depth DB at one position or another.

The value was fair with this pick. Hand was 173rd on the consensus board, so taking him 169th was about right.

Pick grade: C

KJ Osborn is a punt returner and wide receiver, in that order. 

Osborn is built like a halfback -- a little short and thicker than most receivers. He's got good but not amazing speed, decent agility and very good explosion scores athletically. He's not a freak but he's a plus athlete. 

He's a natural ball carrier in space. Returning punts, he runs fast but under control, changing speeds and directions smoothly. He's hard to bring down. He's good at tracking punts, hanging back a little to time his run so he can catch the punt already moving forward. He catches the ball cleanly and with confidence.

Osborn is an interesting study as a WR. He doesn't do a great job with releases off the line and his route running is just OK (he seems to run clean routes but I don't see him doing much that would create separation).  He's got a fairly small frame and catch radius but his hands are really good, making some sticky catches even in traffic. Despite his ability in space, Miami didn't use him much as a gadget receiver (screens etc) from what I saw, aside from a couple of handoffs / end arounds. He lined up mostly outside and ran a lot of typical WR routes (posts, fades, outs, comebacks). His QB play was poor and he didn't see a lot of great targets. 

I think Osborn could make a good slot WR. He's athletic enough to get open with a 2 way go, not facing press, and he's got the speed to get separation horizontally by running away from safeties and linebackers. He might even offer something as a deep threat, though I didn't see him get the chance to make any over-the-shoulder catches on film. The Vikings could use him as a gadget player, getting the ball in his hands on jet sweeps, pitches / handoffs and bubble screens so he can create YAC. A little like Patterson or Harvin, back in the day, though without their gamebreaking ability. 

Even if he doesn't add much as a WR, Osborn should be a good punt returner. He might play on special teams coverage too, like Abdullah did last year. Osborn is a high character guy, who quickly became a team leader after transferring to Miami last year. 

This pick seemed very much like a reach on draft day -- Osborn wasn't ranked in the top 300 on the consensus board -- but it's grown on me now that I've watched him on film and imagined how he might fit in to the offense.

Punt returner has quietly been a weakness on the Vikings roster for a couple of years now, so there is some value in filling that position. Having said that, the 5th round is too early to take a special teams player. So the pick will only be a success if Osborn can contribute on offense too, at least as a role player.

Pick grade: B

Blake Brandel is a left tackle who probably projects to guard in the NFL.

PFF graded him very highly in pass protection last year (their top graded pass blocking tackle) and he graded well in the run game too. These were big improvements compared to 2018, where his grading was average (his 2018 game against Young and Bosa from Ohio State was a mismatch). Brandel's usage in college projects well to the Vikings as a scheme fit -- his share of true pass blocking sets in college (it wasn't a spread passing offense) and his work in the run game was mostly zone blocking.

Despite playing well his last year in college, Brandel wasn't rated highly as a prospect, mainly because he seems like a limited athlete. His agility testing was poor and his arms are short, so he probably needs to move inside to guard in the pros. He has a fairly thin build (6'5" 308) to play guard, but his strength and explosion testing were very good so he may be able to hold up against power. And compared to his college peers at least, his hand usage and blocking techniques are already advanced. 

There's a good chance that Brandel could be a solid backup OL, replacing Dozier this year or next, or maybe Hill if he can cut it at tackle. And it's not impossible that he could develop into a starting LG in a year or two. Starting IOL just need to be competent, not elite.  Despite his poor agility testing, Brandel's technique gives him a high floor -- he did get the job done in all phases of the game in college. Having a starter who might be able to avoid the worst moments of Elflein, Compton, Collins, etc, especially in pass protection, would be worth a lot.

Brandel was a reach in the 6th round by the consensus board -- he wasn't listed in the top 300. But I think this is a really smart pick: he has a high floor as a backup with a potential upside as a developmental starter. And if there's one position where technique can make up for limited athleticism, it's guard. 

Pick grade: A

Josh Metellus is a versatile safety. 

He's a good but not great athlete, with decent size, speed, and agility. He can play deep coverage or in the box, and he was often used in man-to-man coverage in the slot. He was good but not great at all of those roles, not making too many mistakes (he's a sure tackler) but without making a lot of elite plays either. Metellus was a team captain, and you can see it: he played like a leader on the field, pointing things out to his teammates pre-snap and showing good awareness during plays.

He profiles well as a backup safety and special teamer. 

Pick grade: B

Kenny Willekes is a great story. 

He was a walk-on at Michigan State who bounced through several positions on their scout team before becoming a starting DE, playing almost every snap while leading the Big Ten in tackles-for-loss as a junior. He broke his leg in their 2018 bowl game and so came back for his senior year, where he again was very productive and durable. Willekes' last 2 years: 1543 snaps, 18 sacks, 36 TFLs, 51 run stops, and 2 forced fumbles. 

The downside of Willekes as a prospect is that he's not an elite athlete by NFL standards. He's a smallish DE with shorter arms, and his speed, agility and explosion testing was mediocre. Scouts note that he relies on a couple of moves as a pass rusher, and a lot of his production seems to be the result of hustle and effort, not technique or athleticism.

But even so, Willekes was an excellent college DE in all phases of the game. Pass rush aside, he was even more effective as a run defender -- PFF's highest graded edge prospect against the run this year. He might be able to play rotationally as a base end for the Vikings on early downs, alternating with Odenigbo, who's a more explosive pass rusher but weak against the run. His size might not hold up in that scenario, but it might be worth giving him a shot. Willekes might also have some role as a 3rd down pass rusher, either pushing Odenigbo inside or lining up inside himself, depending on how the DT depth shapes up. Most likely, he ends up competing with Zettel and Wonnum for one of 2 backup DE spots.

Willekes is another team captain, a vocal leader, and a high character guy in the meeting room and the weight room. It seems he should be able to find a role at least as a backup and special teams contributor. There's some upside here, but even if the pick doesn't pan out, it will be fun to watch.

Pick grade: B

...

I think the last 3 picks were basically priority UDFA signings. 

The Vikings typically bring in a UDFA QB as a camp arm. Stanley likely would have been that guy in a non-pandemic year where the Vikings could have recruited him. But given the current situation, they decided to make sure they have a 4th competent QB by investing one of their three late 7th round picks. 

Nate Stanley is a big pocket passing QB.

He's got prototypical size but he's heavy footed in the pocket, doesn't slide around much or offer anything as a scrambler. He's got a quick release and a strong arm, more than enough zip to make NFL throws. But his downfield accuracy is terrible: PFF charted only 35% of his 10+ yard throws as accurate. He never had a completion percentage above 60% in college, and in this case that stat says more about Stanley's performance than drops, pressure, or other excuses. 

Iowa ran a pro style offense. Stanley was taking a lot of snaps under center and using play action. His receivers ran typical NFL routes, it wasn't a spread scheme relying on hitches, curls and screens. He made a good number of "big time throws" and mostly took care of the football, checking down without throwing too many interceptions despite his scattershot aim. 

The upside for Stanley would be as an NFL backup and spot starter. If his accuracy could be fixed, he's not far off other big arm, big body QBs from years previous, like Zach Mettenberger or Ryan Mallett, who were drafted much higher and did get their chances in the league. But I'm not sure accuracy can ever be expected to improve in the NFL. So the more realistic expectation is that he will be a camp arm with a decent chance of beating out Jake Browning to be the QB3. 

Pick grade: C

Brian Cole is a developmental safety.

Cole was a former WR who converted to defense, playing as a slot safety next to Vikings 3rd round pick Cameron Dantzler. He looks the part, with good size and speed.

But on film, he just doesn't make any plays. In run defense, he hesitates and takes false steps. He's slow filling holes and working through blockers on screens. He's a disaster in pass coverage from the slot, consistently late to react to routes breaking and failing to make plays on the few occasions that he can contest the catch point. He doesn't have a single pass breakup in his career. Best thing I see on his film is that he's an effective blitzer from the slot: runs fast and hits hard. He can also hit hard in the open field on those occasions when he does get someone lined up, but he missed too many tackles to consider that a net positive. PFF said Cole "flat-out did not perform well this season by any grade or statistical measure". Unfortunately, I don't think they're wrong.

It's hard to believe watching his film that Cole can make the team this year. He looks like more of an athlete than a football player right now. I think he ends up on the practice squad.

Pick grade: D 

Kyle Hinton is a developmental IOL from a small school.

He's small for an NFL OL (6'2" 295) but had elite athletic testing for straight line speed (4.88) and explosion (34.5" vertical, 121" broad jump). Hinton's performance on the jumps wasn't far off Tristan Wirfs (36.5" vert, 121" broad at 320 pounds), despite training at division II Washburn, not in the famous strength program at Iowa. 

Hinton played LT for his small school. He was an athletic mismatch for everyone he faced. He played with a lot of aggression: racking up pancakes and jumping on guys. He was such a super athlete at that level of competition that his team used him as a receiver -- he caught a TD on a tackle eligible play in the red zone, and made a nice catch and run on a fake punt. 

Hinton will be moving to C in the NFL. I think he could develop into a Nick Easton type swing backup OL. Easton's preseason tape as a rookie with the Ravens was similar to Hinton's at Washburn: a short thick center pancaking guys and jumping on piles. Easton was 6'2" 303 coming out of Harvard, a good athlete but not elite like Hinton. 

It's a fun pick, but it seems very unlikely that Hinton will make the roster this year. The step up in competition will be huge, and even under the best case scenario he'll need a year to learn how to play C. But maybe he can replace Brett Jones as a backup IOL next year. 

PIck grade: B

...

I'll grade the bottom tier of the draft as a B+/A-. 

Most of the grade comes from the trades and the first 5 players taken in this tier. I think the last 3 picks (Stanley, Cole, Hinton) would have been UDFAs in any other year. 

...

Again, I'll grade the draft as a whole as a straight A, with most of that grade based on the top tier.

Last year's Vikings draft class was 12 players, 7 of them taken in the bottom 2 rounds. 11 of the 12 ended up playing in the league as rookies: 10 on the Vikings, plus Marcus Epps signed away by the Eagles, with only Dillon Mitchell missing out. That number is skewed a little by using a late 7th pick on a long snapper, but it's still an impressive rate of retention. 

I think this year will be similar. I project they'll keep almost all of the top 12 picks (through WIllekes), with the last 3 quasi-UDFA picks ending up on the practice squad unless they surprise. 

The Vikings have done a lot to refresh their roster through the draft the last couple of years. I doubt the transition will be seamless -- there are bound to be some challenges in getting the young players up to speed. But they're in good position to continue to build -- they're projected to have 12 more draft picks in 2021.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Krauser

[battle2heaven]

7 hours ago, Krauser said:

The Vikings have done a lot to refresh their roster through the draft the last couple of years. I doubt the transition will be seamless -- there are bound to be some challenges in getting the young players up to speed. But they're in good position to continue to build -- they're projected to have 12 more draft picks in 2021.

Always love your analysis Krauser. Thanks for starting this thread and providing your insight. 

I think Hinton is an A pick. He's the exact type of flyer you take in the 7th round. Vikings are probably 99.99% sure they can stash him on the practice squad; which team is going to roster an undersized tackle making a position switch who's highest level of competition was DII? But he's got the athletic goods that in a couple of years, can make an impact on the 53 man. 

 

[Krauser]

2 hours ago, battle2heaven said:

I think Hinton is an A pick. He's the exact type of flyer you take in the 7th round. Vikings are probably 99.99% sure they can stash him on the practice squad; which team is going to roster an undersized tackle making a position switch who's highest level of competition was DII? But he's got the athletic goods that in a couple of years, can make an impact on the 53 man. 

Yeah, Hinton is a fun flyer.

I’d be cautious about expectations until we see him matched up against DL who aren’t 50 pounds lighter than him.  He doesn’t just have to learn a new position, he needs to develop blocking techniques in the first place.

Elite athlete or not, he’ll be short and smallish in the trenches of the NFL. Most raw athletes who’ve tried to convert to IOL haven’t panned out (like the 3 sigma SPARQ god DT the Seahawks tried to make into a C a few years ago). 

Agree that he’s almost certainly heading for the PS. Hopefully he can compete for a roster spot in a year or two.

[whitehops]

10 hours ago, Krauser said:

Elite athlete or not, he’ll be short and smallish in the trenches of the NFL. Most raw athletes who’ve tried to convert to IOL haven’t panned out (like the 3 sigma SPARQ god DT the Seahawks tried to make into a C a few years ago). 

If I remember correctly Sokoli had only played DT for a couple years before getting drafted so he was not only having to learn a position on a different side of the ball but he didn't have a ton of football experience to begin with. Hinton still has a big transition with the jump in competition and the position change but I don't think Sokoli is the best comparison for him. The Sokoli experiment reminds me more of Moritz Boehringer, to be honest. The Margus Hunt experiment is probably the most successful "raw athlete to player" experiment in recent history and he showed much more in college and was a second round pick. 

On 5/2/2020 at 1:23 PM, Krauser said:

On tape, Wonnum reminds me more of Weatherly than Hunter.

It's obviously hard to project a prospect to be like Hunter given how good Hunter is, but I think I'm a little more optimistic about Wonnum's potential than Weatherly's. Andre Patterson was "banging the table" for him in the fourth round which is closer to Hunter getting taken in the later half of the third round than Weatherly getting taken at the top of the seventh round. I know there's other factors involved like manipulating the board, positional strengths/weaknesses in a draft, etc. but I think the team (see: Patterson) clearly thinks higher of Wonnum than Weatherly as a prospect.

 

And for what it's worth, Wonnum has a similar build to Hunter and Weatherly but his testing numbers are closer to Odenigbo's. If he can develop into Odenigbo with a better frame I'd say that's a win for a fourth round pick.

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, whitehops said:

Hinton still has a big transition with the jump in competition and the position change but I don't think Sokoli is the best comparison for him.

Fair enough. You’re right, Hinton did at least play OL. 

My point is just that there’s a lot more than goes into playing IOL than athletic ability. Especially since he’ll be playing C — Hinton will need to learn to call protections, and handle stunts or double teams in either direction. Plus he’ll be learning how to snap. It’ll be a challenge.

1 hour ago, whitehops said:

Andre Patterson was "banging the table" for him in the fourth round which is closer to Hunter getting taken in the later half of the third round than Weatherly getting taken at the top of the seventh round. I know there's other factors involved like manipulating the board, positional strengths/weaknesses in a draft, etc. but I think the team (see: Patterson) clearly thinks higher of Wonnum than Weatherly as a prospect.

I want to give credit to Patterson, who’s done great work over the years, but this is the same process that led to the Willie Beavers pick — another guy with traits but poor production in college. Obviously I’m not a real scout, but I watched Wonnum on film and still don’t understand why he was coveted.

1 hour ago, whitehops said:

Wonnum has a similar build to Hunter and Weatherly but his testing numbers are closer to Odenigbo's. If he can develop into Odenigbo with a better frame I'd say that's a win for a fourth round pick.

Odenigbo and Weatherly were both considerably more productive in college, so I think Wonnum starts a step behind them developmentally.

If he does become a starter, like Odenigbo seems likely to be this year, then that’s full value for the pick. But I think that’s a ceiling, not a realistic expectation.

I’d grade this pick quite a bit higher if he was taken in the 6th or 7th.

[Klomp]

6 hours ago, Krauser said:

Odenigbo and Weatherly were both considerably more productive in college, so I think Wonnum starts a step behind them developmentally.

If he does become a starter, like Odenigbo seems likely to be this year, then that’s full value for the pick. But I think that’s a ceiling, not a realistic expectation.

I’d grade this pick quite a bit higher if he was taken in the 6th or 7th.

Production-wise, Wonnum and Weatherly aren't actually that different in both college sacks and TFLs. Wonnum is down somewhat in sacks, but the TFLs are right there with Odenigbo too.

[Krauser]

4 hours ago, Klomp said:

Production-wise, Wonnum and Weatherly aren't actually that different in both college sacks and TFLs. Wonnum is down somewhat in sacks, but the TFLs are right there with Odenigbo too.

Weatherly produced a better rate of QB pressures. PFF charted him with 4 sacks (officially, 3.5), 6 hits and 31 hurries (41 total pressures) in his draft year, playing 10 games, and he was also credited with 3 PDs (which were presumably mostly or all batted passes at the line). 

In 11 games in his draft year, Wonnum was charted by PFF as registering 5 sacks (officially, 4.5), 3 hits and 18 hurries (26 total pressures), and he didn't register a PD / batted pass. He did block a couple of kicks, which is promising.

I wasn't high on Weatherly when he was drafted (similarly wasn't impressed with his film, though I liked his bright and eclectic personality), and I was skeptical of him through his rookie deal. He was better in 2018 but fell off again last year. I don't think he'll be a long-term starter. Weatherly was an excellent find in the 7th round but if he'd been taken early in the 4th I wouldn't call it a home run. 

[swede700]

For what it's worth, I listened the Vikings' podcast yesterday, and Patterson himself compared him to Weatherly.  

[Klomp]

44 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Weatherly produced a better rate of QB pressures. PFF charted him with 4 sacks (officially, 3.5), 6 hits and 31 hurries (41 total pressures) in his draft year, playing 10 games, and he was also credited with 3 PDs (which were presumably mostly or all batted passes at the line). 

In 11 games in his draft year, Wonnum was charted by PFF as registering 5 sacks (officially, 4.5), 3 hits and 18 hurries (26 total pressures), and he didn't register a PD / batted pass. He did block a couple of kicks, which is promising.

I wasn't high on Weatherly when he was drafted (similarly wasn't impressed with his film, though I liked his bright and eclectic personality), and I was skeptical of him through his rookie deal. He was better in 2018 but fell off again last year. I don't think he'll be a long-term starter. Weatherly was an excellent find in the 7th round but if he'd been taken early in the 4th I wouldn't call it a home run. 

I don't have access to PFF's hits and hurries numbers, so I was only going off of official sacks and TFLs. 

[vikingsrule]

43 minutes ago, swede700 said:

For what it's worth, I listened the Vikings' podcast yesterday, and Patterson himself compared him to Weatherly.  

Unfortunately it took Weatherly a few years before he emerged into a decent rotational player. The Vikes need a decent rotatonal player now. 

[Krauser]

33 minutes ago, swede700 said:

For what it's worth, I listened the Vikings' podcast yesterday, and Patterson himself compared him to Weatherly.  

Good to know coach sees it my way

1 minute ago, Klomp said:

I don't have access to PFF's hits and hurries numbers, so I was only going off of official sacks and TFLs. 

No problem, just explaining why I was calling him less productive. IIRC they didn't publish a full draft guide in 2016 but they wrote a capsule review of every pick where they gave those numbers for Weatherly: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2016-nfl-draft-pick-by-pick-analysis-of-day-3

Quote

6 (227) MINNESOTA VIKINGS: STEPHEN WEATHERLY, ED, VANDERBILT

A good run defender, Weatherly has graded above average in that regard in each of the past two seasons. He's been a solid pass rusher too, with four sacks, six hits and 31 hurries in 2015.

This year's draft guide has 3 pages on every prospect. Here's Wonnum's section: 

The red flags for me are the low grades, especially the low pass rush grade on 3rd and long (an obvious pass rush situation), and relatively few hits/hurries even in his most productive year (2017, where he's credited with 6 sacks but only 24 pressures in total).  

[RpMc]

11 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Good to know coach sees it my way

No problem, just explaining why I was calling him less productive. IIRC they didn't publish a full draft guide in 2016 but they wrote a capsule review of every pick where they gave those numbers for Weatherly: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2016-nfl-draft-pick-by-pick-analysis-of-day-3

This year's draft guide has 3 pages on every prospect. Here's Wonnum's section: 

The red flags for me are the low grades, especially the low pass rush grade on 3rd and long (an obvious pass rush situation), and relatively few hits/hurries even in his most productive year (2017, where he's credited with 6 sacks but only 24 pressures in total).  

This is where statistics can get us in a bit of trouble. Third and long situations, Muschamp tends to drop eight, play coverage, and rush three - going back to that 2017 Clemson game I watched yesterday, South Carolina played a lot of coverage and blitzed very little; multiple occurrences of rushing only three with Wonnum taking on a guard and tackle because Clemson knew he was their best pass rusher. 
 

I appreciate PFF as a starting point to give me a baseline on what to look for, but the context of scheme is often overlooked. Watching that game against Clemson, it was pretty clear they wanted to minimize throwing windows during that game. Dropping 8 and rushing Wonnum as one of three, or using Wonnum as an additional curl/flat dropper on third downs. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by RpMc

[Krauser]

11 minutes ago, RpMc said:

This is where statistics can get us in a bit of trouble. Third and long situations, Muschamp tends to drop eight, play coverage, and rush three - going back to that 2017 Clemson game I watched yesterday, South Carolina played a lot of coverage and blitzed very little; multiple occurrences of rushing only three with Wonnum taking on a guard and tackle because Clemson knew he was their best pass rusher. 

I appreciate PFF as a starting point to give me a baseline on what to look for, but the context of scheme is often overlooked. Watching that game against Clemson, it was pretty clear they wanted to minimize throwing windows during that game. Dropping 8 and rushing Wonnum as one of three, or using Wonnum as an additional curl/flat dropper on third downs. 

Good point, he was underused as a pass rusher. PFF's scouting notes do make that point: "a ton of run reads / contain rushes". His pass rush grade would reflect that to a point (he would get a neutral grade for failing to beat a double team, and they wouldn't grade a pass rush snap at all if he was dropping into zone).

I couldn't find anything except a highlights package for the Clemson game, can you post the link?

Most of the sacks in Wonnum's highlights (there's a collection from his sophomore year, and a few other single plays on YouTube) are from second effort / redirections -- he pushes the tackle back and then spins off to the inside. A couple of them are on stunts. I don't see a lot of clean wins where he gets to the QB in under 3 seconds. 

I watched the cut up of his Alabama game -- from memory, he gets a couple of pressures working through TEs or RBs as the QB rolls out, but he doesn't beat a tackle to pressure the QB in the pocket. He also gets single blocked out of run plays by TEs, several times. 

I remember someone saying he flashed as they were watching Kinlaw's tape. I guess a "Kinlaw vs" search would also turn up more on Wonnum's work on a play by play basis.