Evaluate the Vikings 2020 draft

[y*so*blu]

Judging by how the prospects look and how well they fit our needs, I think it's our best draft in recent memory. I would have liked to get a more notable d-line prospect like Gallimore, but you can't have everything. I voted an A-.

[vikes635]

1 Justin Jefferson=A
1 Jeff Gladney=A
2 Ezra Cleveland=B
3 Cameron Dantzler=A+
4 DJ Wonnum=C-
4 James Lynch=A+
4 Troy Dye=A
5 Harrison Hand=B+
5 KJ Osborn=D
6 Blake Brandel=D
6 Josh Metellus=B+
7 Kenny Willekes=A++
7 Nate Stanley=B+
7 Brian Cole=A
7 Kyle Hinton=C-

Both trades to give up third pick of that round for next years rounds ahead of it was excellent moves. 

Overall this draft I remained the least frustrated I have ever remained through out the draft process. I believe Q. Davis will make the team as well.

[CriminalMind]

How do ppl evaluate prospects?

I never watch highlights.

I look at focused full game snap cut ups for whole games against good competition. I'm looking for\at what a player does without the ball (given a certain situation) way way more than what they do with the ball (RB\QB exception).

So for CBs, i look for how fast they diagnos its a run play, how fast they break off a block to go help on a screen, are they in position to defend a pass (regardless of outcome), how do they react to WRs etc. Each position has something different that i look for 

[CriminalMind]

6 hours ago, vikes635 said:

1 Justin Jefferson=A
1 Jeff Gladney=A
2 Ezra Cleveland=B
3 Cameron Dantzler=A+
4 DJ Wonnum=C-
4 James Lynch=A+
4 Troy Dye=A
5 Harrison Hand=B+
5 KJ Osborn=D
6 Blake Brandel=D
6 Josh Metellus=B+
7 Kenny Willekes=A++
7 Nate Stanley=B+
7 Brian Cole=A
7 Kyle Hinton=C-

I can agree with most of this, but I would switch the grades of Gladney and Cleveland. I might give Hinton n\a instead and lower Wonnum's grade further. Hope he proves me wrong

[battle2heaven]

12 hours ago, CriminalMind said:

Gladney is ok but didn't like him as much as Noah who was snashed 1 pick before (after they traded down).

So I'm a big Noah fan but being a converted wide receiver and still new to the nuances of being a cornerback, he has a bigger ceiling but it's going to take a bit longer for him to reach that ceiling. 

Gladney is battle tested with more way more experience and targeted reps in his college career. With the shortened offseason and the lack of physical contact, it's probably better to select someone that's more ready to play right away than the other. Besides that, if you compare their measurables, they are very similar. Although IMO, I think Gladney is faster. He "only" ran a 4.48 and his agility numbers were not great. But when you realize he did all of that with a torn meniscus, it's probably pretty dang good. 

This is PFF's write up on the Gladney selection:

Quote

PICK 31: JEFF GLADNEY – CB – TCU

The second first-round selection is where the Vikings could start making gains, and they came away with a player at not just their greatest position of need, but one who is also the perfect schematic fit for Mike Zimmer’s defense. 

At TCU, the defense ran quarters coverage the majority of their coverage snaps (51.2%, almost 35 percentage points higher than any other coverage shell). While the Vikings defense is significantly more diverse than that, they operate within that split-safety family of coverages extensively, and many of the principles will be immediately familiar to Gladney.

Gladney is also by far the most battle-hardened of any of the top cornerback prospects, having played almost 1,500 snaps in coverage in his college career and targeted more than 200 times (232). Over those targets, he allowed just 47% of them to be caught for only 6.2 yards per reception and forced an incompletion on an incredible 21.1%.

Getting a cornerback at the top of the draft was almost an imperative for the Vikings, and they not only secured one but were able to trade back to collect assets before doing so. They still came away with one of the two best stylistic fits for their defense, a player who should perform right away.

 

[battle2heaven]

10 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

I think the Vikings had an A+ through the Hand pick, but about a C for the rest, with the Willekes pick saving it. So, in the end, A-/B+.

I think they addressed the positions of need but maybe not the players you would have preferred? Yeah I agree some bigger name players were out there, but I like the fact that Rick took multiple shots. If 1 just hits, it more than makes up for any other failed late round pick. 

[battle2heaven]

7 hours ago, y*so*blu said:

I would have liked to get a more notable d-line prospect like Gallimore, but you can't have everything. I voted an A-.

Just curious, what makes Gallimore to you, so much better than Lynch? assuming the one specific position they are looking to fill is the pass rushing 3 technique defensive tackle?

Gallimore is hard to evaluate on tape because all he did was shoot the gaps or run stunts. You really don't see him being required to do some of the other non flashy responsibilities that Lynch had to do. With all that said, Lynch still outproduced him massively over the course of their college careers.

[battle2heaven]

58 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

So for CBs, i look for how fast they diagnos its a run play

Do you factor if they're playing man or zone? That makes a huge difference.

[Guest]

I hope that they don't throw Cleveland in the starting lineup to quickly.  Especially with no, or a reduced training camp/pre-season.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Guest

[SteelKing728]

11 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

I think the Vikings had an A+ through the Hand pick, but about a C for the rest, with the Willekes pick saving it. So, in the end, A-/B+. 

I'm giving it a solid A. I think Hand might move to safety, Willekes is the #4/#5 DE and Stanley wins the #2 QB job. I have Hinton as OL 9 too.

I loved this draft, even with missing out on Wirfs, Kinlaw and Henderson.

[vikingsrule]

8 hours ago, y*so*blu said:

Judging by how the prospects look and how well they fit our needs, I think it's our best draft in recent memory. I would have liked to get a more notable d-line prospect like Gallimore, but you can't have everything. I voted an A-.

I’m feeling the same way. Filled a lot of needs. Would have liked to grabbed Gallimore or Madabuike in round 3 via trade up. DE is still a concern for me. I’m not confident that we have a 3rd DE that will have an impact this year. Which will hurt the rotation. Maybe Griffen can fill that void and perhaps there’s is some optimism of his return since the Vikes didn’t draft a DE early. I’ll give the draft an A-.

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, battle2heaven said:

Gallimore is hard to evaluate on tape because all he did was shoot the gaps or run stunts. You really don't see him being required to do some of the other non flashy responsibilities that Lynch had to do. With all that said, Lynch still outproduced him massively over the course of their college careers

Lynch was productive but most of his snaps were at DE, and he produced more there than when he moved inside. His skillset should translate to 3-tech, at least as a nickel pass rusher, but it’s no easier to project him there than a guy who actually played the position full time in college.

[Heimdallr]

I find it hard to give any sort of grade to 6th/7th round picks. The majority of them don't even make it out of training camp. Just try to find guys that fit the scheme or have a trait you like and see what happens. 

[Krauser]

I think this was the Vikings best draft since 2015, and their most fun since the heyday of 2013-14. 

I grade it as a straight A. 

This is the 3rd year in a row I've written up a review of the Vikings draft and the grade has gone up a notch every time. Previously, I gave the 2018 class a B, and the 2019 class a B+/A-. 

I like to look at the draft in 3 tiers. 

The top tier is for starters (soon if not immediately) and long-term building blocks. With picks 22 and 25, the Vikings were out of range of the truly elite prospects this year, short of a trade up. But the top tier of expected starters extends well into day 2. We could expect them to get 2 or more starters from their first 3 picks. 

Justin Jefferson, drafted with the pick the Bills traded for Stefon Diggs, is Diggs' replacement at WR. 

Jefferson has elite athleticism based on his combine testing, and that shows up on the field: he's an excellent route runner, can beat people deep, excels at the catch point and offers some YAC ability. He's also an enthusiastic blocker. I haven't been able to find a single negative about him written in film analysis or scouting breakdowns. He may actually be a more talented receiver than Diggs, and he seems exceptionally consistent in terms of his on-field performance. 

The perception that Jefferson might be limited to a slot role in the NFL seems to have dropped his draft stock out of the top 20. He was much more productive in 2019 (playing almost exclusively in the slot, in LSU's record breaking offense) than the year before (when he was lined up more outside). Jefferson's increased production as a slot receiver last year raised the question of whether he would be better off staying in that role in the NFL.

Kubiak's offense uses 2 WR sets almost exclusively, except in obvious passing situations. The Vikings will ask Jefferson to take over Diggs' role as the starting WR opposite Thielen. He will line up in the slot at times, but he will also need to play outside, which means he'll be facing press man coverage at times, especially in red zone and 3rd down situations. Learning to beat press coverage is a challenge for almost every college receiver coming to the NFL (and something Diggs himself struggled with later in 2015, when he started facing coverage from top CBs). 

Jefferson does have good height and size for an outside receiver, as well as legitimate speed (4.43) and explosion. His route running skills are excellent for this stage of his development. He was at least reasonably effective as an outside receiver in 2018, so the challenge won't be entirely new to him. Still, the question will remain until he shows he can continue to perform at a high level in a more balanced role. 

Jefferson seems to have a very high floor. Watching his film, it's hard to believe he'll be anything less than a good starting WR in the NFL. But the fact that he's a polished prospect doesn't mean there's no upside. The best case scenario would be another Thielen- or Diggs-quality complete WR, with some elements of Keenan Allen (the route running savvy) and OBJ (the explosive athlete). 

The value was excellent at pick 22, Jefferson was expect to go in the teens.

Pick grade: A

Jeff Gladney is a short but feisty CB who analysts project as an ideal fit the Vikings. Gladney played in a pattern match zone scheme at TCU, and Zimmer's scheme uses similar concepts.

Gladney didn't test well athletically but he was running on a bad knee (meniscus, since fixed). He's known as a plus athlete otherwise (4.3 speed on previous testing, and agile). He's 5'10' with relatively long arms, a similar build to Mackenzie Alexander. He's got excellent ball skills, leading his conference in pass breakups, many of them against top quality WRs. 

Gladney was used as an outside CB in college, but like Alexander, Zimmer may have him play in the slot. He's got the size and agility to be an excellent nickel, and he's a hard hitter and good tackler (better than Hughes, who probably gets the NCB job otherwise). I'd rather see Gladney stay outside to make use of his speed, downfield coverage ability, contested catch ability, and understanding of zone schemes. 

Gladney also seems to have a high floor. He played a lot at TCU (he came to the draft a year older) and held up well. He might not be anything special at the NFL level, but it's reasonable to project him as a starting CB by year 2 or 3.

The Vikings traded down from 25 to 31 before picking Gladney, netting a 4th rounder (later used on DJ Wonnum) and 5th (KJ Osborn) from the Niners. The pick was good value, Gladney had been expected to go in the late 1st or early 2nd. 

Pick grade: B, bump that up to B+ including the trade.

Ezra Cleveland is the new franchise left tackle. He played at Boise State, blocked for Alexander Mattison there. 

Cleveland is an elite athlete. His arms are a little short for the position, and he's only average height and weight, but everything else about him tested at the top of the charts. He's heavier, stronger (bench) and more explosive (jumps) than Brian O'Neill, and his weight adjusted agility scores are even better than O'Neill (who ran like a 295 pound slot corner). Cleveland compares well athletically to Terron Armstead and Lane Johnson, both Pro Bowlers. 

Here's a beautiful graphic from one of Arif Hasan's articles.

As Arif's article shows, not everyone with that level of athleticism becomes a Pro Bowler, but almost all of the OL taken in the early rounds with those physical skills have at least been solid starters. 

Cleveland is reported to have some trouble with anchoring against power. I watched a few of his games, and haven't seen that as a major problem. In the Florida State game, he repeatedly matched up against Marvin Wilson, a 300 pound DT/DE who's projected to go top 10 in next year's draft, and he handled him well. 

Cleveland's pass blocking is odd in that he has quite a passive style. He usually doesn't punch or reach but waits until the defender engages. He often short sets (doesn't kick far) and only deepens his pass set if the rusher takes an outside arc. I saw him get beaten like that once, as the rusher dipped under his punch and turned the corner. I didn't see him give up any moves to the inside. I saw him waist bend a couple of times and whiff once, badly (first play of the game against Troy). But that was the only time. 

Run blocking -- he's competent but not dominant. Boise State ran a lot of inside zone, as you may remember if you watched some Mattison highlights last year. Cleveland reliably wins most of his blocks but doesn't beat anyone up. 

Vikings fans will hate the comparison but Cleveland reminds me a lot of Matt Kalil (this is PFF Mike Renner's comparison originally, but he's right, so it stuck with me). He's built like Kalil --  tall even for a tackle, and lean. Like Kalil, Cleveland is not a mauler and doesn't play with a lot of visible aggression or enthusiasm. O'Neill by contrast is much meaner and likes jumping on guys and pushing piles until the whistle.

The pre-injury version of Matt Kalil was a consensus top 5 pick in 2012. Cleveland is even more athletic than Kalil was coming out, and is healthier than the broken down version of Kalil that Vikings fans remember. Even healthy, Kalil was probably never going to be better than a second tier starting LT (his rookie Pro Bowl appearance had a lot to do with Adrian Peterson making his OL look good). But he was a good starter his first couple of years.

I don't expect Cleveland to be a star but again his floor seems high enough that he can become a capable starter within a year or two. I think the Vikings will have him start as a rookie, moving Reiff inside. 

Cleveland could have come off the board anytime after the late 1st. Had the Vikings traded up for him to the mid-2nd, it would have been considered a reasonable move given the positional value of a starting LT. But they stood pat and got excellent value for the pick and the player. 

Pick grade: A

...

With picks 22, 25 and 58, the Vikings got a player who could have gone top 15-20, and two more who could have gone at the end of the 1st round. They didn't have to trade up to fill their needs, and in fact traded down to create 2 additional picks combining to a late 3rd round value. The process was excellent there.

All 3 picks addressed immediate needs at positions of value. 2 of the prospects are elite athletes, and the 3rd (Gladney) plays like a plus athlete even though he didn't test well with an injury. There are no off field or character concerns, and no known long-term injury risks. All 3 are scheme fits, and seem to have high floors. 

So l grade the top tier of their draft as an A+. It literally couldn't have gone any better.

...

This is long enough already. I'll continue later with tiers 2 and 3. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Krauser

[RpMc]

3 hours ago, CriminalMind said:

How do ppl evaluate prospects?

I never watch highlights.

I look at focused full game snap cut ups for whole games against good competition. I'm looking for\at what a player does without the ball (given a certain situation) way way more than what they do with the ball (RB\QB exception).

So for CBs, i look for how fast they diagnos its a run play, how fast they break off a block to go help on a screen, are they in position to defend a pass (regardless of outcome), how do they react to WRs etc. Each position has something different that i look for 

Basically this; if I'm looking for how a second/third level defender plays in run support, I try to find a game against a heavy run/triple option style team - if I'm looking at a lower level player like Highsmith and Clark from Charlotte, I found their game against Clemson to see if they look like they belong.

Most evaluations require at least three games for me to feel comfortable with them - try to find their three best opponents.

Edited April 30, 2020 by RpMc