2020 Stat Predictions

[turtle28]

Quarterback 

Haskins: 65%, 3900 yds, 24 TDs, 12 ints

 

Running Back

Gibson: 200 carries, 900 yds 7 TDs

40 recs, 400 yds, 2 TD

McKissic: 70 carries, 350 yds, 1 TD

40 recs, 300 yds

Love: 50 carries, 250 yds

 

Wide Receivers

McLaurin: 75 recs, 1050 yds, 8 TDs

Inman: 50 recs, 500 yds, 2 TDs

Sims: 60 recs, 600 yds, 6 TDs

AGG: 15 recs, 150 yds

Wright: 10 recs, 100 yds

 

Tight Ends

Thomas: 50 recs, 500 yds, 5 TDs 

Baugh: 25 recs, 250 yds, 1 TD

Sprinkle: 10 recs, 75 yds

 

Defensive Ends

Young: 60 tackles, 15 sacks

Sweat: 50 tackles, 8 sacks

Kerrigan: 25 tackles, 5 sacks 

Anderson: 25 tackles, 2 sacks 

 

Defensive Tackles

Allen: 60 tackles, 5 sacks 

Ioannidis: 40 tackles, 6 sacks 

Payne: 45 tackles, 3 sacks 

Settle: 10 tackles 

 

Linebackers

T. Davis: 80 tackles, 2 PD, 2 sacks 

Bostic: 105 tackles, 2 PD, 1 sack 

KPL: 90 tackles, 4  PD, 1 sack  

SDH: 50 tackles, 2 PD, 1 int, 1 sack

Holcomb: 50 tackles, 2 PD, 1 sack

 

Corners

Fuller: 75 tackles, 15 PD, 4 ints

Darby: 70 tackles, 13 PD, 3 ints

Moreland: 40 tackles, 7 PD, 2 ints

Moreau: 40 tackles, 5 PD, 1 int

 

Safeties

Collins: 110 tackles, 5 PD, 1 sack, 2 ints

Apke: 75 tackles, 8 PD, 3 ints

Edited September 6, 2020 by turtle28

[MikeT14]

I am comparing your stats thread to your prediction thread, and I just don't see any way they correlate. This seems like an 8 win team then.

[turtle28]

8 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I am comparing your stats thread to your prediction thread, and I just don't see any way they correlate. This seems like an 8 win team then.

It’s certainly possible we win near 8 games. Stat predictions always end up being a rosy scenario that’s never met. This is what I think could happen if everything were perfect, and it never is. I’m not sure why anyone would take a stat prediction any other way.

It’s hard to predict stats, I’m doing the best I can. It’s hard to project what players will do, bc for me, before the season I always hope a player will have a good year or even a career year when in reality that almost never happens, but how does anyone predict - in stats - that a player is going to have a down year or get hurt and when?

That’s impossible, and if you can predict that you should bet every dime you have on the lottery so you can get rich.w

Edited April 30, 2020 by turtle28

[MikeT14]

1 minute ago, turtle28 said:

That’s impossible, and if you can predict that you should bet every dime you have in the lottery so you can get rich.

I don't. When I gamble on it, it's complete guesses too. That just seems like a really good year for Haskins, and our D should be a lot better (especially with those numbers). Therefore, that tells me 8 wins.

[turtle28]

2 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I don't. When I gamble on it, it's complete guesses too. That just seems like a really good year for Haskins, and our D should be a lot better (especially with those numbers). Therefore, that tells me 8 wins.

Yeah, could be. Just going through the numbers, I’m not even sure where to cut. I already cut 500 yards off of the first run through I had to get Haskins down to under or around 4,000.

I’d love to see anyone do their own. If you think Haskins is going to have more like 3,500 yards passing and 20 or less TDs, I’d love to see where you’d cut back on stats from our receivers.
 

For example, I don’t see Terry regressing or Steven Sims - but that’s possible. Perhaps Rogers doesn’t do as well as I project he’ll do as a starting TE (50 recs, 500 yds, 5 TDs) perhaps Gibson doesn’t get as many reps as I think he will to get 30 recs and 300 yds, 2 TDs. I think those last two things are less possible then Terry & Sims having good to great years.

What say you?

As far as our D goes, I do think our D is going to be really good - maybe even great - thanks to the addition to Chase Young which makes a pro bowl talent like Ryan Kerrigan a rotational player - that’s an awesome problem to have. It would not shock me if our D is near a top 5 D if we have a run first offense that controls the ball - which I think we’ll have - and bc of how dominant I think our DL is going to be.
 

I think our young LBs will improve and Thomas Davis is an improvement over any of the LBs we had last year. I think JDR and RR will put our LBs and Landon Collins in better position to put pressure on offenses run games and on QBs so they can make more plays behind and around the line of scrimmage then Manusky did the last several years. Also, I think Sean Davis is an improvement at FS over Nicholson. I think our talent at corner is equal to what it was last year - assuming health - and Moreau and Moreland should be better than they were last year after another year of development.

I’ve been really bored at home so I figured I’d do it, haha 🤣. Actually yesterday I went through almost all of it in even more detail with TFL stats, FF stats & QB hit stats for the D but then for some reason my phone lost its WiFi signal or something and I lost everything I had been working on for a half hour. So, this is my 3rd run through on this, ugh! 😫 And, I almost gave up on doing it but I couldn’t stop thinking about Redskins stats last night, especially for our young guys. I’m excited for this season and to watch these young guys play.

[TOUCAN]

Honestly I think I speak for the world when I say that if Chase doesn't break the single season sack record in his first year, he's dead to me and everyone else.

[PARROTHEAD]

10 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Sweat: 50 tackles, 8 sacks

 

 

Sweat had 7 while dropping back in coverage half the time. Full time rushing the passer should net better than 8. I dont think a dozen is unrealistic.

[SeattleSkin]

@turtle28 ~ Rodgers is an upgrade from what Haskins had to work with last season & a lot of unknowns as far as how they'll use TEs overall in 2020 but 50 catches might be a high expectation. With his recent injury history I could see the Skins keeping him at a low snap count early in the season.

50+ catches once in his career (2015) & since then has totaled 43 receptions/438 yds in 38 games. If he does get those 5o catches, 5oo yds is a very reasonable projection but I don't think he'll get enough targets to do it.

[MikeT14]

Jesus, I glanced over those Rogers numbers too quickly.

[MikeT14]

You'd think Sprinkle (if he makes the team) would have a leg up on all of this and beat a journeyman, a QB, and a blocking TE rookie.

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Sweat had 7 while dropping back in coverage half the time. Full time rushing the passer should net better than 8. I dont think a dozen is unrealistic.

The issue is snap counts and competition against Young, Kerrigan and our interior DL for those sacks. I wanted to say he was going to get 10 or 11 but I think their is going to be a lot of rotation between he and Kerrigan opposite Young. I was trying to be realistic with that rather then be overly optimistic.

I tried to do that with every player. I took a sack away from Ioannidis too. 

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, SeattleSkin said:

@turtle28 ~ Rodgers is an upgrade from what Haskins had to work with last season & a lot of unknowns as far as how they'll use TEs overall in 2020 but 50 catches might be a high expectation. With his recent injury history I could see the Skins keeping him at a low snap count early in the season.

50+ catches once in his career (2015) & since then has totaled 43 receptions/438 yds in 38 games. If he does get those 5o catches, 5oo yds is a very reasonable projection but I don't think he'll get enough targets to do it.

Well, the last year he started was 2015 and that was basically a 60 catch season (58 recs, 8 TDs). So, if he does end up being our starter - and I don’t think Sprinkle & Thomas are better, or they haven’t proven they are - then, 50 recs & 5 TDs is 8 less receptions & 3 less TDs then he had in 2015 as a starter.

When the Packers got Jimmy Graham in 2018, Rogers ended up in Philly behind Ertz, but like you said he got hurt the last two years. This is all assuming Rogers stays healthy finally, the way that Ziggy Hood finally did after a few years of injuries before we signed him.

Assuming Rogers is healthy, I’m not sure 50 recs & 5 TDs is that much of an exaggeration for a starting TE. Of course I could see him getting hurt again and/or getting less then 50 recs & 5 TDs but, I think currently he’s the most solid TE on our roster from top to bottom as a blocker & receiver.

Our younger TEs, Sprinkle, Thomas, Thad Moss and Caleb Wilson have more upside as receivers then Rogers does but, I‘m not going to just wildly guess they’ll do something they’ve never done.

I just had this discussion with someone on Twitter who thinks Logan Thomas is going to be our starter and have those kind of #s, based off his athleticism and bc of the deal he signed. The best season Thomas has had his entire career was last year, 16 recs & 1 TD, why would I project him to be a starter over Rogers, again assuming Rogers is healthy?

The TE I like the best is Thad Moss, but I’m not ready to project him to be the starter either, so I chose to go with the vet who’s still in his prime and has done it before, even if that was in 2015 and not recently.

Edited April 30, 2020 by turtle28

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

You'd think Sprinkle (if he makes the team) would have a leg up on all of this and beat a journeyman, a QB, and a blocking TE rookie.

The problem with Sprinkle is his hands. Rogers isn’t as good of an athlete as Sprinkle is, but Rogers doesn’t drop passes. If Sprinkle didn’t drop so may passes last year, he would have had 30 plus recs & maybe another TD in 13 starts but his hands are an issue. So, I would think that Rivera and Turner would turn to Rogers unless Sprinkle, Thomas or Moss prove in training camp/preseason - if they have one - that they can be consistent and a more  reliable receiver then Rogers has proven to be when healthy. Sure, they can do that, but I’m going to go with what I know and what a guy has done in his career vs a total unknown which is Sprinkle or Thomas’ breaking out or Thad Moss being good as a rookie.
 

I like Sprinkle, I want to believe he can be the starter but from what I saw out of him last year, I just can’t make the prediction that Sprinkle will be the starter over a vet like Rogers who is solid but not spectacular in every aspect of the game - assuming Rogers is healthy.

And, who is the blocking TE rookie?

Thad Moss? He’s more then just a blocking TE. The guy played at least some of his college season last year on a broken foot and still had 47 recs, 570 yds, 12.1 avg and 4 TDs last year for LSU in 12 games despite having to compete with arguably the most talented receiving corps in college football for targets from Burrow.

I’m not saying Thad Moss is the answer, but he’s not just a blocking TE.

Edited April 30, 2020 by turtle28

[MikeT14]

29 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

And, who is the blocking TE rookie?

Thad Moss? He’s more then just a blocking TE. The guy played at least some of his college season last year on a broken foot and still had 47 recs, 570 yds, 12.1 avg and 4 TDs last year for LSU in 12 games despite having to compete with arguably the most talented receiving corps in college football for targets from Burrow.

I’m not saying Thad Moss is the answer, but he’s not just a blocking TE.

Thad Moss and his biggest strengths are in his blocking, physicality, hands and underneath. Not a world beater outside of that. He's not the guy I want in there stretching the field when we need to march down it. 

[turtle28]

9 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Thad Moss and his biggest strengths are in his blocking, physicality, hands and underneath. Not a world beater outside of that. He's not the guy I want in there stretching the field when we need to march down it. 

So basically a Cooley like TE. I could live with that as our TE if Moss ends up being our starter someday. I’d love to get a really fast TE like Vernon Davis again or an extra special athletic one like Reed again but there’s no guarantee that that happens.

If Moss can average 12 ypc on a broken foot in the SEC, I’d have to believe he can do something similar in the NFL.

I mean the type of TE you are talking about is rare. There aren’t that many Kelce, Ertz, Kittle & Gronk type TEs in the NFL. Most are lesser athletes that don’t stretch the field as much.

Edited April 30, 2020 by turtle28