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2020 ROT


DreamKid

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So, obviously I think we all expect some regression. The team most likely isn’t going to score an opening drive TD every game, go for 33 ppg, set league records etc. 

But what’s everyone’s threshold for where you’d still be happy with the offense next year, let’s say ppg-wise?

I think if we can hover around 26/27 or so there’s no reason - save a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball - we shouldn’t be looking at double digit wins again.

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23 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

So, obviously I think we all expect some regression. The team most likely isn’t going to score an opening drive TD every game, go for 33 ppg, set league records etc. 

But what’s everyone’s threshold for where you’d still be happy with the offense next year, let’s say ppg-wise?

I think if we can hover around 26/27 or so there’s no reason - save a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball - we shouldn’t be looking at double digit wins again.

I usually go by DVOA as the one stat that captures everything. Last year we were 1st in passing, 1st in rushing. Tough to beat!

I think if we are top 5 in both rushing and passing offense, that would be an acceptable amount of regression. The loss of Yanda would hopefully be offset by improvements at WR, RB. 

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A bit has been made about how we have a ton of IOL types on the roster now, but almost no true LT backup.

I'm wondering if the new gameday roster rules play into it some. If the team has a more true LT type on the practice squad, they can activate him for gameday as the emergency LT and have one of the other guys who isn't in the gameday starting lineup inactive, even though they like him more and want him protected as a part of the 53-man roster.

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/going-deep/yards-carry-plusminus- 2 Ravens in the Top 10.

2019 YPC Plus/Minus Leaders

Translation: “Lamar Jackson averaged 2.6 more yards per carry than the average player in his situation after adjusting for yards to go and shotgun/under center snaps.” Note: I removed QB scrambles and QB kneels from calculations, so it’s just designed runs. Minimum 50 carries to qualify. 

Rank

Player

Team

YPC +/-

Carries

1

Lamar Jackson

BAL

+2.6

120

2

Jordan Wilkins

IND

+1.9

51

3

Kyler Murray

ARI

+1.9

56

4

Raheem Mostert

SF

+1.5

137

5

Rashaad Penny

SEA

+1.5

65

6

Tony Pollard

DAL

+1.1

86

7

Derrick Henry

TEN

+1.0

303

8

Matt Breida

SF

+1.0

123

9

Gus Edwards

BAL

+0.9

133

10

Devin Singletary

BUF

+0.9

149

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Good, good. Hopefully Bozeman wins the spot. And then Phillips gets in there at LG. Phillips/Bozeman/Fluker is a pretty strong interior. What should be functional upgrades at LG (phillips over Bozeman) and C (Bozeman over Mekari and Skura, though that one is closer) helps mitigate the big loss at RG. 

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9 hours ago, coordinator0 said:

Good, good. Hopefully Bozeman wins the spot. And then Phillips gets in there at LG. Phillips/Bozeman/Fluker is a pretty strong interior. What should be functional upgrades at LG (phillips over Bozeman) and C (Bozeman over Mekari and Skura, though that one is closer) helps mitigate the big loss at RG. 

Powers could be in the LG mix as well, considering Fluker is likely the RG. 

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Yeah I’m certainly attaching my wagon to the Patrick Mekari wagon. Let him bulk up inside and keep getting more comfortable with snapping to Lamar and I see him as better than both Bozeman and Skura inside. May the best man win between Powers and Phillips... considering the Powers was a consensus All American at the position and his movement skills and such.. I certainly think we could see him make a serious leap along the OL this season... so I’m going with him winning the starting job.

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Man... so weird but the more I think about our running backs and their potential for dominance within a Wing T offensive system I get so excited. I mean... Gus Edwards and Patrick Ricard as our two FB options.

Power Wing T

Stanley- Powers- Mekari- Fluker- Brown Jr

—————————— Lamar—————————

—————————— Ricard——————————

———— Ingram—————— Edwards————

Could use this formation in smash mouth situations. Both Ingram and Edwards have shown potency and physicality as blockers. Could run HB dives, HB dive triple option with the other RB running to the edges with Lamar, could go with FB dive, QB rollouts after faking the handoffs to the opposite side that could with Lamar’s speed be both play action pass OR QB run options, both benefiting from a defense that overcommits to the principal RB options.

Pistol Wing T
 

Stanley- Powers- Mekari- Fluker- Brown Jr
————————————————————————

—————————— Lamar—————————

———————— Ingram/Gus ————————

———— Dobbins —————— Hill——————

Use this formation to capture the edges with Dobbins and Hill’s speed to go OT. That as well as Lamar’s ability to equally do damage on the backside of the defense overcommits. And with it being pistol, Lamar can key the defense and fake to Gus up the middle if he senses an opening up the middle.

Edited by diamondbull424
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https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2890339-how-hollywood-is-going-to-change-the-nfl

Even though everything in here is going to be quoted back to us like crazy if things go bad this season, this is still a really good read about Hollywood and his relationship with Lamar. Also gets into some detail about how Hollywood felt the screws in his foot were limiting him during his rookie year. Nothing surprising I don't think - you could see he wasn't quite hitting his highest gear, and he talks openly about how he avoided contact because he just wanted to get through his rookie year without getting hurt. 

This was interesting as well:

Exactly one year ago, Brown reveals, the Ravens asked Jackson who he wanted as his No. 1 receiver. Jackson told them either Brown in that draft or Jerry Jeudy the following year. So before that 2019 draft, Jackson let Brown know via text: "We're coming to get you."

Also - someone needs to get a hold of Willie Snead and get him to stop playing hype man. First it was 'Miles Boykin is Michael Thomas,' now he's saying Lamar and Hollywood are the next Montana and Rice? He's walking bulletin board material. 

 
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On 5/6/2020 at 10:06 PM, coordinator0 said:

Good, good. Hopefully Bozeman wins the spot. And then Phillips gets in there at LG. Phillips/Bozeman/Fluker is a pretty strong interior. What should be functional upgrades at LG (phillips over Bozeman) and C (Bozeman over Mekari and Skura, though that one is closer) helps mitigate the big loss at RG. 

I agree, I think Bozeman would be the best C over Mekari and a recovering Skura. Then let Phillips/Fluker/Powers/Bredeson battle it out for the guard spots. 

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19 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Man... so weird but the more I think about our running backs and their potential for dominance within a Wing T offensive system I get so excited. I mean... Gus Edwards and Patrick Ricard as our two FB options.

Power Wing T

Stanley- Powers- Mekari- Fluker- Brown Jr

—————————— Lamar—————————

—————————— Ricard——————————

———— Ingram—————— Edwards————

Could use this formation in smash mouth situations. Both Ingram and Edwards have shown potency and physicality as blockers. Could run HB dives, HB dive triple option with the other RB running to the edges with Lamar, could go with FB dive, QB rollouts after faking the handoffs to the opposite side that could with Lamar’s speed be both play action pass OR QB run options, both benefiting from a defense that overcommits to the principal RB options.

Pistol Wing T
 

Stanley- Powers- Mekari- Fluker- Brown Jr
————————————————————————

—————————— Lamar—————————

———————— Ingram/Gus ————————

———— Dobbins —————— Hill——————

Use this formation to capture the edges with Dobbins and Hill’s speed to go OT. That as well as Lamar’s ability to equally do damage on the backside of the defense overcommits. And with it being pistol, Lamar can key the defense and fake to Gus up the middle if he senses an opening up the middle.

I think another wrinkle we might be able to add to the run game involves Duvernay. Moving him across the formation pre-snap might give us a lot of potential looks.

1) He has struggled in the past with breaking press (hence his production out of the slot). By moving him pre-snap, may be able to give him a cleaner release (and expose potential zone vs. man coverage/responsibilities).

2) Could introduce some triple-option type concepts on the QB/RB option where he is the pitch man for Lamar. He runs like a RB and has track-level SL speed if he gets the ball with a crease or is on the perimeter with no contain.

3) Team has run some jet sweep type stuff in the past with other WR, he could give a credible threat there. Even the potential for it/motion across the formation noted above might help spread the defense out laterally, making Lamar/HB runs even more dangerous.

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2 hours ago, sp6488 said:

I think another wrinkle we might be able to add to the run game involves Duvernay. Moving him across the formation pre-snap might give us a lot of potential looks.

1) He has struggled in the past with breaking press (hence his production out of the slot). By moving him pre-snap, may be able to give him a cleaner release (and expose potential zone vs. man coverage/responsibilities).

2) Could introduce some triple-option type concepts on the QB/RB option where he is the pitch man for Lamar. He runs like a RB and has track-level SL speed if he gets the ball with a crease or is on the perimeter with no contain.

3) Team has run some jet sweep type stuff in the past with other WR, he could give a credible threat there. Even the potential for it/motion across the formation noted above might help spread the defense out laterally, making Lamar/HB runs even more dangerous.

Oh absolutely. Could run a Pistol look with Gus/Ingram lined up next to Lamar playing the “FB” position with JKD lined up in the HB slot to the left or right of Lamar as pictured above, while Duvernay lines up in the flex spot off the LOS opposite JKD (H-Back position) then gets jet motioned by Lamar for either misdirection to the play or it sets up the built in counter to anything the defenses chooses.

Meaning either the defense guesses right and our huge OL and talented stable of backs can still overwhelm them OR the defense guesses incorrectly and with that kind of speed it becomes a 20+ yard gain.

Then that is obviously all provided additional supplement with Hollywood Brown being someone that at full throttle could REALLY expose defenses by virtue of his speed and the quickness of all the sleight of hands displays.

That slight of hand however is an important component that shouldn’t be undervalued, not every QB can sell run fakes as good as Jackson and make multiple fakes in quick succession. It’s still a serious part of his skillset that has not really been given proper credence by many in the media IMO.

Edited by diamondbull424
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