2020 ROT

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Imagine Roman or Culley designing something like this:

 

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

@M.10.E That tweet is exactly why I posted that  

If we're looking for cheap trade options that allow us to get back to our core identity, that's the way I would want us to go as well. Also, Seahawks just released Luke Willson, who could very well serve in that TE3 role for us.

Rumor was that we were about to trade for Zack Ertz, until he went down with injury... in the game against us. 😂
(not legit funny, just ironic)

I don’t think a third TE is the answer though. People keep wanting to get back to last years offense... and it’s true that it was incredibly effective. And I do think we could win with that type of offense. Same as I think we could win with our current offense as constructed.

However I think our best chance at winning is going with 11 personnel more often. I don’t know our exact personnel splits, but I’d imagine it’s something like 5-10% of the time... if that. With 12, 21, and 22 personnel making up 90% of personnel groupings.

Whereas in reality, I think we need to go 11 personnel on something like 25-30% of plays. And then when we’re not in that we go with 12 and 21 personnel about as much as now. Reduce the number of 22 (2 RBs, 2 TEs) personnel groupings.

Unless we’re making use of interesting alignments that might justify its usage. Something like using a Wing T Pistol with both Dobbins and Ingram as potential receiver options of quality vs having Ricard and Boyle out there together as slow ineffective options. At least Dobbins and Ingram have a chance at running past or through a LB assigned to defend them, Ricard and Boyle (Ricard especially) has little hope in that if short of the sticks on a route.

But the basic 22 personnel groupings with both Boyle and Ricard, I hope we see less of. Get our WRs on the field together and see what we have in them as receivers. If we have something I think that’s our best chance of winning.

Though with Roman as our offensive coordinator, you guys are probably right. Our best chance to win is the more big bodies the better.

[coordinator0]

19 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Though with Roman as our offensive coordinator, you guys are probably right. Our best chance to win is the more big bodies the better.

This is where I'm at. I truly believe the team was trying to evolve their offensive scheme this year with trying something different instead of just replacing Hurst and going down the same path. They just don't know how to do it though. Roman has never known how to do it. It's doubtful Culley is some kind of low-key offensive guru too.

So here we are. I'm all for doing whatever works so if that means going back to the big sets and destroying defenses that way so be it. There are drawbacks, but it's better than whatever you call the product they have out there now. Though to be fair the offensive line is a shadow of what it was last year so I'm not sure anything they do is going to be all that impressive.

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, coordinator0 said:

This is where I'm at. I truly believe the team was trying to evolve their offensive scheme this year with trying something different instead of just replacing Hurst and going down the same path. They just don't know how to do it though. Roman has never known how to do it. It's doubtful Culley is some kind of low-key offensive guru too.

So here we are. I'm all for doing whatever works so if that means going back to the big sets and destroying defenses that way so be it. There are drawbacks, but it's better than whatever you call the product they have out there now. Though to be fair the offensive line is a shadow of what it was last year so I'm not sure anything they do is going to be all that impressive.

Don’t fret, if anyone is going to turn into the next Yanda, it’s probably the OT convert that was PFF’s 3rd best OT in pass protection for college football in 2019, who broke out as a rookie on a 14-2 team, that also just graded as one of our best players in a game against one of the best front 7’s we’ll see all year.

If there’s a light for this season, it COULD (I’m not crowning Mekari YET) be finding a PB level successor to Marshal Yanda in Patrick Mekari. There are so many similarities there that it’s filthy.

If he can provide the answer for Yanda, Philips should go into 2021 as our swing option that backs up Brown Jr at RT as well as our primary backup at OG. If Stanley isn’t fully healthy than Philips starts at RT, ideally a position he looks more suited for than what he’s currently displayed along the IOL. That and resign Fluker to be what he’s been this season and compete for the starting RT role with Philips... though I’m sure after he continues to hold up at RT, it will earn him a really good pick from some other team.

Either way in that scenario we can simply draft the best center available and our OL should be good regardless of if Stanley is fully healthy or not. He could start the year off on the PUP if necessary as Brown becomes our LT (of the future?).

So we should definitely be keeping our eye on Mekari and how he does on a weekly basis, his expected (by me and I’m sure @DreamKid) ascension would really mean a lot to this teams future roster build designs.

I’m sure @Danand loves the prospect of other people talking about the big sexies upfront. So that he doesn’t have to be the only one... not that I’m changing my position that an elite possession WR would most help this offense... but those don’t grow on too many trees. And if one does fall to us, usually there’s something wrong with them like DKM had the neck, the durability, the agility, and the attitude concerns that put him in question.

[coordinator0]

Right, I'm not saying it's all doom and gloom going forward just that this season is probably going to be a rough ride up front the rest of the way. Though it would be pretty cool if a line of Brown / Bozeman / Skura / Mekari / Fluker really clicked. It might be that this scenario is going to force Roman back into the offense that the team ran last year too. That alone could take a lot of pressure off the line.

[Danand]

I feel we as a group we slow, but steady, move toward more emphasis on aquiring olines every year. I think it is key to roster building and improving just a little bit on your oline makes up for a higher drafted skill position player due to half a second longer in pass protection, less instant pressure snaps and more consistent push in the run game.

There is this Wyatt guy from Ohio I think it was, I like him from the few clips I have seen so far. Then there is Creed Humphrey who could also be an option. I don't think we should be concerned with investing a high pick in an oline no matter position, as we could easily be in a position next year, where Skura is gone, Bozeman is in a contract year and we have not seen enough from Powers Bredeson yet to count on them. 

I am looking at Onwenu this year, and wonder how in hell we missed on him as a fit for our defense.

With regard to our personel groupings, I think there is a lot of truth in Roman having a comfort zone (maybe even an imbalanced emphasis in practice sessions) for the heavy run game which makes us better at executing that part. The heavy run formations with Boyle and Ricard also can prevent defenses from dropping into coverages faster, which helps the oline in pass pro a bit and helps Andrews/Snead, Duuuuv, Brown and Boykin getting open - the issue however has been with those formations, we end up with Boykin/Snead, Andrews and Brown running routes down field against 5-6 man coverages which is a challenge

I don't feel we have really tried it this season, the empty and 11 personel groupings with less Boyle and Ricard on the field, but this is where scheme and Lamars reads have needs for improvement as well as the olines inconsistent blocking without the help of play action. If we had that element, we would be a much stronger, versatile team that would be more likely to overcome larger deficits on the scoreboard and avoid the stigma that we can't win from behind/against good teams.

In this case however, with going into the harder part of our schedule, getting back to basics and run the offense with our strengths might not be the worst idea, although it would maybe hinder the development of the passing game.

Another thing, now we have finally put that running game to the outside on display and how successful it can be. I hope we with Dobbins can use more of that and make defenses chase more from sideline to sideline and spread them out and develop the passing game from that - Hayden Hurst was great on those plays but Andrews, Boykin and Brown have also shown they are great assets in that regard.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Supporting data for the idea that we don't throw the ball on early downs. We are BY FAR the most run-heavy team in the league in neutral situations.

[diamondbull424]

5 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Supporting data for the idea that we don't throw the ball on early downs. We are BY FAR the most run-heavy team in the league in neutral situations.

Yup. I think a healthy range to be in should be somewhere in that 47-49% range for this squad. It would give the passing attack the needed game reps to jell for the trying moments we’re likely to see come playoff time. Give defenses more that they have to prepare for as well. The more they have to prepare for, the more our bread and butter, running the football off the read option, should actually work.

[drd23]

Being last in that stat would be fine if those 1sts down run plays were successful like they were last year, but the significant increase in 2nd & long and 3rd & long situations indicates that they aren't

[Danand]

It is all a plan to set up play action and then hit receivers on quick outs and in routes for 5-7 yards.

Both Brown and Duvernay on the outside get big cushions quite often

[drd23]

Problem is that its been statistically proven that you don't need to run first to set up play-action.  There's no difference in play success of a PA pass if you ran the ball the play before or 4 plays or 8 plays before

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

Consistently running the ball in neutral situations "to set up play action" is just unnecessarily passing up a better opportunity to gain yards

[Danand]

24 minutes ago, drd23 said:

Problem is that its been statistically proven that you don't need to run first to set up play-action.  There's no difference in play success of a PA pass if you ran the ball the play before or 4 plays or 8 plays before

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

Consistently running the ball in neutral situations "to set up play action" is just unnecessarily passing up a better opportunity to gain yards

If we boil everything down to statistics and analytics, there is absolutely no reason to run the ball whatsoever as it is based on a potential outcome vs. risks. 

What analytics says about running the football, is that is only makes sense when a team run the ball with succes - which is just hindsight.

I think analytics and statistics can be great tools, but I also think people use it in a way it shouldn't. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

6 hours ago, Danand said:

It is all a plan to set up play action and then hit receivers on quick outs and in routes for 5-7 yards.

Both Brown and Duvernay on the outside get big cushions quite often

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not lol

[M.10.E]

 

Edited November 11, 2020 by M.10.E

[sp6488]

5 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not lol

That's literally what they did in the second half of this last week's game...

Probably a joke about it all being a plan, but your insinuation that the bolded won't happen doesn't track with what they just did.

Edited November 11, 2020 by sp6488