2020 ROT

[Danand]

3 hours ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2890339-how-hollywood-is-going-to-change-the-nfl

Even though everything in here is going to be quoted back to us like crazy if things go bad this season, this is still a really good read about Hollywood and his relationship with Lamar. Also gets into some detail about how Hollywood felt the screws in his foot were limiting him during his rookie year. Nothing surprising I don't think - you could see he wasn't quite hitting his highest gear, and he talks openly about how he avoided contact because he just wanted to get through his rookie year without getting hurt. 

This was interesting as well:

Exactly one year ago, Brown reveals, the Ravens asked Jackson who he wanted as his No. 1 receiver. Jackson told them either Brown in that draft or Jerry Jeudy the following year. So before that 2019 draft, Jackson let Brown know via text: "We're coming to get you."

Also - someone needs to get a hold of Willie Snead and get him to stop playing hype man. First it was 'Miles Boykin is Michael Thomas,' now he's saying Lamar and Hollywood are the next Montana and Rice? He's walking bulletin board material. 

 

When I played with screws in my foot and leg, there was some significant discomfort. Once I took a helmet to the lower leg and ankle and it was extremely painful.

I can easily understand if those screws had an impact on Browns play last year and I hope he can turn it up a notch this year. I don't think we saw him do similar things last year compared to his years in college, so I bet he hasn't reached his ceiling.

[sp6488]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-backup-qb-power-rankings-from-1-32-andy-dalton-gives-cowboys-elite-option-behind-dak-prescott/?ftag=SNL-04-10aaa0c&ET_CID=128077&ET_RID=34236081

It's a dumb rankings article, but it's the offseason and we don't have much else to talk about.

Quote

17. Ravens' Robert Griffin III
The former Rookie of the Year isn't what he used to be, but he's a good fit for the Ravens' offense. Since his awesome rookie season back in 2012, he's completing 61.9 percent of his passes, averaging 7.0 yards per attempt, and has thrown the same number of touchdowns as interceptions (23), but he's experienced and has enough mobility to run the same style of offense as Jackson (albeit at a much slower and less electric pace). He's what teams are often looking for in their backup.

Having Griffin as a worse backup option than Matt Schaub, Mason Rudolph, Chase Daniel, Nick Mullens, and Chad Henne seems a bit aggressive. Can definitely make an argument for a few of those guys. I'd say he's more likely in the top half (16-or-better) than bottom half (17-or-worse). He's immediately ahead of Kyle Allen, FWIW.

[Danand]

I had those same names in mind when I looked at the list. If we look at the fit in the offense, I think he could go up some spots as well near the Case Keenum area.

His performances last year however wasn't as good as I had hoped, but the circumstances wasn't great either and he wasn't asked to do much as we were protecting a lead anyway.

 

his speed is still there, but I think it is clear to everyone, that what makes this offense go is Lamars balance, elusiveness and stop and go accelleration rather than his top speed.

[paraven]

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by paraven

[Danand]

Well, Smith is not wrong. We are talking about players at a glamour position who are told to do less glamourish things compared to other teams and schemes. I think Lamars first 8-9 games was an anomaly, and we should only base our outlook on the passing game based on this last season. While we certainly ran the ball more than other teams, we also had the benefit of having leads in most games, which leads to more running plays.

I believe we also had a fair amount of bad weather games, which again favors the running game.

If we next year have to catch up in games, thus having to pass more, and we play in better weather/domes, we could see the run/pass ratio be more similar to other teams, and Smiths point might not hold water.

[Ray Reed]

22 hours ago, Danand said:

Well, Smith is not wrong. We are talking about players at a glamour position who are told to do less glamourish things compared to other teams and schemes. I think Lamars first 8-9 games was an anomaly, and we should only base our outlook on the passing game based on this last season. While we certainly ran the ball more than other teams, we also had the benefit of having leads in most games, which leads to more running plays.

I believe we also had a fair amount of bad weather games, which again favors the running game.

If we next year have to catch up in games, thus having to pass more, and we play in better weather/domes, we could see the run/pass ratio be more similar to other teams, and Smiths point might not hold water.

Side note: I can't wait to see Lamar/this offense play in that dome in Indy. Especially coming off a bye. I feel like Lamar's cuts are going to legit break ankles on a turf surface.

[SalvadorsDeli]

FO just released an analysis of deep ball passing that's pretty interesting to look at in regards to Lamar:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/2019-20-deep-ball-project

They charted Lamar as being accurate on 24/47 passes 21+ yards down the field - the 12th best accuracy rate in the league. The three QB's immediately in front of him - Wentz, Garrappalo, and Cousins - were all less than a percentage point in front of him whereas the QB immediately behind him - Derek Carr - was 4 full points behind him, so he was essentially at the back end of the upper tier on this stat. Notable QB's behind Lamar on the list include Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Josh Allen (who had essentially the worst #'s in the league among actual starters), Tannehill, and Goff.

Understanding the usual caveats around this not being huge sample size to work with to begin with, still think there are some of the more interesting splits that I think are worth diving into:

- Only 4 of his 47 deep passes (8%) were thrown outside the pocket - and he connected on 2 of them. Compare that to other mobile QB's and it's clear this is an area we need to leverage more. 18% of Russel Wilson's deep passes were outside the pocket, Deshaun Watson was at 14%, and Kyler Murray was at 20%. With both Watson and Wilson, their completion percentage outside the pocket was significantly better than in the pocket, which makes sense - those throws were either coming on designed rollouts where defenses are having to both cover deep and play the run, or they were broken plays where they were using their legs to extend the play and force guys to cover downfield for a long time. We can/should absolutely be looking to do the same thing with Lamar, both with more designed plays and also by making a point to coach this up with the receivers to get them to hustle and keep moving when Lamar has to improvise and extend plays. 

- Lamar was "only" 50% on passes of 21-30 yards (14/28) - whereas he was actually marginally better on throws 31+ yards downfield (10/19, one of 7 QB's with a completion percentage over 50%). This I think lines up with what some people have talked about in terms of the improvements that can be made in the intermediate passing game. 

- Lamar was actually more accurate under pressure (6/9) than when he had clean pockets (18/38) - don't have an obvious explanation for that beyond maybe some of that speaking to just some of the gaps in our deep passing game last year coming down to timing and chemistry. 

- He was also outstanding in 'tight' window throws - 4th best completion percentage in the league. Like with the pressure vs. no pressure splits, the fact that he over-performed in tight windows compared to clean window throws gives me reason to feel optimistic - he's got the harder part down already so making improvements there seems more to do with getting more reps and improving chemistry/comfort with his receivers. 

- The directional splits are very interesting to me, because I think it gives you the best illustration of how personnel/his weapons impacts the passing game. Lamar was 7/16 throwing deep left, 5/13 throwing deep middle, and 12/18 throwing deep right. The accuracy on deep right throws was 3rd in the league - especially interesting given all the talk about him not being able to throw outside the hashes. 

The main difference between throwing deep right compared to the others is really just the quality of the receiver - those deep right throws were to Hollywood, whereas the deep middle and left throws were to the likes of Snead, Seth Roberts, a rookie Boykin, and TE's, and the difference shows in the numbers.

All that is even more reason to be excited about Hollywood - that he was already basically an elite deep threat as a rookie despite not playing at full speed makes you wonder just how high his ceiling is. But it also more importantly to me just underscores just how important Boykin's development is for this offense. If we're going to have a downfield passing game then you need guys who can actually make those plays down the field. Hollywood on his own is going to help take the top off of defenses even more in 2020 but Lamar needs more than just one downfield so that we can effectively use the whole field. 

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by BaltimoreTerp

[sp6488]

2 hours ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

 

- Lamar was actually more accurate under pressure (6/9) than when he had clean pockets (18/38) - don't have an obvious explanation for that beyond maybe some of that speaking to just some of the gaps in our deep passing game last year coming down to timing and chemistry. 

 

 

I think there's two things here:

1) first and foremost, there's a sample size issue

2) It could be a counter-intuitive thing where situations in which there is pressure, but Lamar is still able to release a deep pass represent great opportunities. When the pressure gets home (either a sack or a throwaway, dump-off, etc.) doesn't show up in this data. So in situations where Lamar is pressured, but still takes a shot downfield, it could just be really good opportunities. For example, defense sent extra guys, but he escaped, so now there's a guy running wide open down the field.

Would be interested to see how this split works out for other guys

[SalvadorsDeli]

 

 

All really good to hear/see. 

[SalvadorsDeli]

 

[drd23]

You love to see it.  Looks like a lot of the receivers and RBs are involved

 

[sp6488]

1 hour ago, drd23 said:

You love to see it.  Looks like a lot of the receivers and RBs are involved

 

For those who don't want to click through to Twitter and want context (without inferring):

 

[drd23]

1 hour ago, sp6488 said:

For those who don't want to click through to Twitter and want context (without inferring):

I thought it was obvious that the context was the tweet BTerp posted...

[DreamKid]

McSorley and Huntley? With our depth receivers?

Sounds like our Preseason dynasty is in good hands. If there is a Preseason in 2020...

[SalvadorsDeli]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-lamar-jackson-deviating-empty-formation-norms-and-succeeding

Interesting piece about how the Ravens running 5 vert empty sets and just generally how Lamar's legs create a scheme headache for defenses. Generally when teams run empty set formations they still have at least 1 receiver running a shallow and/or option route so that the QB has a check down option in the event the pressure gets there quickly with no 2nd level blockers in. But we were successful sending all 5 guys deep - and thus creating a numerical mismatch even if teams play Cover 4 - because Lamar's legs are essentialy his own checkdown option, and thus we don't need to hold one receiver short to be his safety valve. Against zone defenses we can essentially create overloads, and if they man up then they end up with their backs turned and you're giving Lamar the greenlight to run wild. The result was us having the 2nd best EPA per play out of empty formations of the past 5 years, behind only the 2016 Pats. 

Couple of good examples of it in that article but as I recall the Rams game was probably the best showcase for this particular wrinkle. 

It's interesting in its own right just because I think it's a good illustration of just how and why it's hard to design a defense to stop Lamar - his legs really are a scheme breaker in that sense. But I think it's also worth considering to look at what the rest of the article is talking about - how Brady and Brees basically perfected the use of the more traditional empty set approach with at least one receiver running short by working option routes based usually on how the MLB defends the play. As Lamar builds more chemistry with his receivers - particularly Hollywood - that's the sort of thing I'd love to see our receivers doing more - you already know that the secondary is going to be playing somewhat on their toes trying to account for Lamar so the more our receivers are reading/reacting to that we'll be set up for a lot of easy completions as long as everyone's on the same page.