Analytics of the Top 4 QBs (2020)

[SmittyBacall]

Saw this on twitter and found it really interesting, thought I'd share for those who like analytics. This article dives into arm strength, release time, and trigger time of the top 4 QB prospects this year, compared to QB prospects since 2017, and some of the NFLs past QBs. 

JOE BURROW:

While Joe has average arm strength, and release relative to his peers, his trigger release time (time from seeing open receiver and starting throwing motion) was the fastest ever recorded since the data was first tracked. It goes to show how special/advanced Joe is as far as mental processing; he makes his reads as fast as lightning, literally. His processing speed also dates back to his Ohio State days - another wrench in the idea that Joe is a byproduct of Brady's system. 

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The clip isn’t glitching — I’ve frozen it each time Burrow locks-on to a different target. And you can see, the amount of time Burrow needs to decide if a receiver is “open” or “not open” is insanely small. On this play, outside of the first read, he spends no more than 0.333 seconds looking in the direction of any one receiver. It takes the human brain at least 0.2 seconds to process visual stimuli. So, here, he’s making the decision to throw or not in 0.133 seconds or less. For reference, that’s about how long a flash of lightning lasts ( — trust me, I know that sounds ridiculous. But it’s true).

And Burrow’s quick trigger isn’t just the product of the offense he played in at LSU last season. I went back and analyzed some of his throws from LSU in 2018 and from Ohio State in 2016. His decision-making was just as quick. This, combined with his accuracy, is really what sets him apart from any other quarterback in this draft class. His other measurables — release time, arm strength, physical size — are all relatively average. But I think it’s clear, in any sport, that the mind is the single-most important predictor of success.

 

TUA TAGOVAILOA:

Tua surprisingly came in with the worst arm strength of the four (was expecting it to be Joe, to be honest) and worst since 2017, but has the quickest release of any QB recorded since the inception of this data, beating out Dan Marino and Aaron Rodgers with a release time of 0.33. That's ridiculously quick. He also came up average in trigger time. 

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And to see what Tua’s quick release looks like next to the other 2020 prospects in this analysis, just like the Marino gif, I’ve lined up clips from each QB so they begin their throwing motion on the exact same frame. These clips are all slowed down to 33% speed. You can see, while the other quarterbacks are still in the acceleration phase of their throwing motions, the ball is already out of Tua’s hand. And I do want to point out that the other quarterbacks’ releases are not problematic — they’re relatively average — but Tua’s throwing motion is just otherworldly.

The rest can be seen below:

https://medium.com/@thetim_dix/nfl-draft-how-strong-is-joe-burrows-arm-b69abd897399

[Hunter2_1]

Burrow really is pretty much everything you want in a QB. I don't think that can be overstated at this point.

We'll see if he's still a super computer when live NFL bullets fly, but with processing speed and skill like that - he should be great.

[Daniel]

"Frankly, I had more fun analyzing Love’s tape than any of the other QBs. Rocket arm? Check. Big-play potential? Check. Horrendous telegraphing of some of his throws? Also, check. Love’s interception reel is the football equivalent of a Saw movie. When you watch it, you just wonder when the unnecessary violence is going to end."

That's some gold right there.  Interesting read.  It explains why I always thought Tua had a more live arm than the consensus.  He gets the ball out crazy fast and it makes it seem faster than it is.  Not something I would have ever picked up on just watching tape on Youtube.