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Trentwannabe

Josh Allen in year 3

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I wanted to take a look at the 3rd season of some notable QB's that Allen has been compared to and then make some educated guesses as to what we could be seeing from him in year 3.

Brief History: The biggest knack on Allen coming out of college was his accuracy and decision making. Through 28 games (27 starts) he has completed 56% of his throws and thrown 21 INT with 22 fumbles. It has been fair criticism. However context is always relevant. 

The other side of the coin for Josh Allen leading up to the draft was that he should be sitting a minimum of two years behind a veteran. Teams like NYG, Cleveland and Denver were linked to him because they had proven guys or bridge QB's in place. Bills fans were rightfully hesitant towards the idea of Allen because they had Nate Peterman and AJ McCaron as their other QB's. A bona fide day 1 starter was wanted.

Buffalo selected Allen who they fell in love with after their private workout with him. So much so that when the Jets traded up to pick 3, they were certain at that time that they wouldn't get him. 

Nate Peterman did Nate Peterman things in Week 1 against Baltimore in the rain. Allen came in during the 4th quarter and was also bad. Allen's first career start was far from spectacular either but he started to show signs of being a playmaker. In week 3 against Minnesota Allen showed that he has some special traits. His diving touchdown, hurdling Anthony Barr and finding Chris Ivory for a big gain after rolling away from pressure.

The remaining of Allen's rookie season was up and down with an elbow injury sidelining him for 3 games. That lay off saw a change in strategy with Allen and the offense that continues to this day. Out went the taller, slow and possession receivers of Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes and in came Robert Foster and Isaiah McKenzie. 

Year 2 saw the Bills add Cole Beasley, John Brown, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox to the playmakers. As well as a complete overhaul to the OL. It saw Allen improve in accuracy, yards, touchdowns thrown, less INT and finished top 10 in passing in the intermediate part of the field. There is still a lot of work to be done for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, which was evident in the playoff loss. Too many drops and poor throws. That is to be expected when you're talking about one of the rawest QB's ever to be taken round 1. What could year 3 bring for Josh Allen? What are reasonable expectations?

Here is the jump Ben Roethlisberger saw from year 2 to year 3.

2006 Pittsburgh Steelers 15 469 280 59.7 31.3 3,513 7.5 234.2 18 3.8 23 4.9 67T 42 7 46 280 75.4
 
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers 12 268 168 62.7 22.3 2,385 8.9 198.8 17 6.3 9 3.4 85T 35 12 23 129 98.6

 

Cam Newton

 

2013 Carolina Panthers 16 473 292 61.7 29.6 3,379 7.1 211.2 24 5.1 13 2.7 79T 33 7 43 336 88.8
 
2012 Carolina Panthers 16 485 280 57.7 30.3 3,869 8.0 241.8 19 3.9 12 2.5 82 57 11 36 244 86.2

 

Mathew Stafford (doing year 3 to year 4  because he played in just 3 games in his second year)

2012 Detroit Lions 16 727 435 59.8 45.4 4,967 6.8 310.4 20 2.8 17 2.3 57 63 9 29 212 79.8
 
2011 Detroit Lions 16 663 421 63.5 41.4 5,038 7.6 314.9 41 6.2 16 2.4 73T 64 16 36 257 97.2

 

Blake Bortles

 

2016 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 625 368 58.9 39.1 3,905 6.2 244.1 23 3.7 16 2.6 51T 43 4 34 197 78.8
 
2015 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 606 355 58.6 37.9 4,428 7.3 276.8 35 5.8 18 3.0 90T 72 11 51 320 88.2

 

Conclusion: So what does this mean? What does this show? Obviously nothing earth shattering. None of these QB's statistically made drastic improvements but they did mostly improve. In some cases their stats weren't as good (Stafford TD's, Big Ben completion percentage). The Bills continued to build around Allen this off-season giving him a true number 1 WR, giving Buffalo one of the best WR groups in the league. A far cry from Benjamin, Zay Jones and Andre Holmes.

On paper Josh Allen should improve. The pieces are there. The continuity of the coaching staff is there. Is he going to become a top 10 QB this season? Quite unlikely. But can he jump from the 22-26 range into the 12-15? Yes he can. Buffalo's WR's led the league in drop percentage (7.2%) according to PFR. If 6 less balls were dropped, Allen completes 60% of his passes and there is a whole other conversation going on with him. Allen had some huge games and wins for this team last year. In Dallas and in Pittsburgh are career defying moments. The Bills have a Super Bowl roster that is ready to win now. Fair or not the success of this season will come down how to Allen plays and/or improves. The offense needs to be better and needs to score more. He doesn't need to have an MVP type season for the Bills to be successful or to feel confident moving forward with him long-term. But he does need to make another step forward. What do you guys think that looks like?

For me it's this: Allen continue to be the great leader he is and make plays with his legs when needed. Continue to be a winner. As a passer:

 

 

2020 16G 320 512 62.2% 32Att/G 3800 Yds 6.7AVG 237Yds/G 28TD   12Int   60Lg     25 Sck

 

 

 

 
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Realized I went too high on yards for the season. Brought it down to 237 per game on avg.

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I like the topic and you did a good job. I am sure everyone would be ecstatic if he threw for 4000 yards and 30 td.   I dont really care about those type of stats, yes it would be nice but the thing I want to see like you mentioned is accuracy I want him to be in the 65+% comp range. I want the mistakes of fumbles to be corrected, he worked on his INTs and I hope he corrects the fumble issue this year. Finally the 3rd down conversions in general I know it is about allen but if this as a team can improve then I think Allen will be successful at the NFL level and can be said to be a franchise qb. If he can not get his accuracy up and correct the fumble mistakes then beane may have to start thinking long term on someone else, no I am not saying go in to 2021 draft at land a qb, I am saying during his rookie contract. Very few Qbs succeed now a days if they cant get to the 65% completion, look at Winston he was a #1 pick made some splashy stats his first 5 years but he couldnt get his accuracy down and made horrible mistakes. I just dont want to see Allen go down that road. So that is what I am hoping for a higher completion % this year hopefully to the 63%  range this year , 3500 yds 26 tds, 10 ints and only 5 fumbles this year, this of course does not include rushing stats. To me that is enough progress to show he is capable of getting better as years go on and maybe he can get to the 65%+ by year 4 in order to be the bills long time qb.

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I agree @soflbillsfan

my main point for this thread was to show that the 3rd year of a QB is not always a make or break. At least not in the most recent history.

Clear progression is more than enough to continue justifying Josh being the franchise guy. 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

I agree @soflbillsfan

my main point for this thread was to show that the 3rd year of a QB is not always a make or break. At least not in the most recent history.

Clear progression is more than enough to continue justifying Josh being the franchise guy. 

Yea i think the make it or break it for him is in year 4 maybe year 5 if they think he is thir guy and they are still winning. You got to make sure that this is the guy for the team for long term because that contract is going to exceed 150 mil which means the defense will have to take on a new persona. Similar to the Seahawks, that team came up as a strong defense and cost them money early on and then when they paid Russell they had to make some cuts on defense ending the legion of boom and they needed to count more on wilson then they did in the beginning. Cant get trapped and pay him like the jags did bortles, or the phins did tannehill thinking they both will get better when they didnt.

Edited by soflbillsfan

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I always liked the Big Ben comparison. Ben was a big bodied QB who would hold onto the ball too long. Hell, he still does that, but he's mastered his craft. Hopefully Allen can do the same.

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On 5/6/2020 at 2:02 PM, WizeGuy said:

I always liked the Big Ben comparison. Ben was a big bodied QB who would hold onto the ball too long. Hell, he still does that, but he's mastered his craft. Hopefully Allen can do the same.

The big difference between Ben and Josh. Is Ben can move but he scrambles to buy time. Josh Allen is more of a runner when he takes off. 

I kinda see Allen as a cross between McNair and Joe Flacco. He has the size and arm strength of a Joe Flacco. But his running abilities is very much like McNair. And McNair first two years starting he had a similar completion percentage as Josh in his first two years.  I see that combination of a player who has a chance to be a future MVP if he can put it all together. Especially if he works on deep ball accuracy. Adding guys like Diggs and Davis will help. Those guys will get long and track those balls better than Foster. Foster had the speed but his problem was being able to track balls in the air and to be able to go up and get it.

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1 hour ago, marshawn lynch said:

The big difference between Ben and Josh. Is Ben can move but he scrambles to buy time. Josh Allen is more of a runner when he takes off. 

I kinda see Allen as a cross between McNair and Joe Flacco. He has the size and arm strength of a Joe Flacco. But his running abilities is very much like McNair. And McNair first two years starting he had a similar completion percentage as Josh in his first two years.  I see that combination of a player who has a chance to be a future MVP if he can put it all together. Especially if he works on deep ball accuracy. Adding guys like Diggs and Davis will help. Those guys will get long and track those balls better than Foster. Foster had the speed but his problem was being able to track balls in the air and to be able to go up and get it.

I always liked the McNair comparison. Also McNabb esque in some ways. 

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Just here to re-affirm that Josh Allen was my favorite player in the draft two years in a row.

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10 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

Just here to re-affirm that Josh Allen was my favorite player in the draft two years in a row.

Pick one

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1 hour ago, bigbadbuff said:

Pick one

2018. That was the year that the galloping mountain armed with a cannon on his right shoulder, the John Henry of a mountain known as Josh Allen, was my favorite player in the draft.

In 2019, the fusion of Von Miller and a bigger Jordan Hicks with Kuechly-type leadership known as Josh Allen was my favorite player in the draft. 

 

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If you are not already, follow this man on twitter and enjoy. Love the leadership Josh is showing and the commitment and work ethic all these guys on offense have.

 

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Josh Allen was on a zoom call today with Buffalo media. That article talks about some of the things he shared.

Allen said he feels he is throwing the best he ever has. The video above shows some nice touch on deep passes. 

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