Heinz D. Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 17 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: My point with the part you bolded is that every QB has “Bad [Insert name here]” games over the course of the season. Mitch had a lot of them last year and that needs to not happen, but if he wins the job and then one happens in week 1 or 2 what good is it going to do to freak the **** out and start calling for his head? If there’s going to be mass hysteria every time our QB isn’t great, which by the way is the M.O. for this fan base, then nothing will ever be good enough. He certainly doesn’t get the whole year in 2020 to play it out if subpar performances are as frequent as in 2019 but if Mitch isn’t immediately and always really good starting the second he hits the field in 2020 people will be ready to get rid of him. Nobody can ever meet that standard. If he wins the job then he has to get at least some margin for error, but you know as well as I do that for the vast majority of fans that won’t be the case. Why would we force it upon him as a fan base to be afraid to make any mistakes knowing where that road leads? That **** is just dumb, and yet we continue to do it with QB after QB after QB. We booed Mitch off the field in the first quarter of week 1 last year coming off a 12-win season. Week one! Don’t think for a second that stuff doesn’t matter. I think there's a difference between Mitch simply having a bad game--as that can happen for any number of reasons--and the reappearance of "Bad Mitch". I basically agree with what you posted there. To me, it's not even about pure stats, and W-L. It's about composure, and processing things mentally. His ridiculous overthrows and underthrows were all mental in nature, as were any number of other things. Mitch can play well and not have a win or a good stat line, and we'll know it, we'll see it. If he's balling out, we'll know it. Well, at least most of us will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 3 hours ago, G08 said: I mean that's 12 starts vs 29 starts, but your point remains True. But that's why extrapolating stats sucks to me. If a baseball player played 10 years and had a major injury that greatly altered his ability then sure, there's 162 games a year so there is a lot of time for highs and lows to even out. That's over 1000 games to find a mean. In football with 16 game seasons, especially with guys who haven't had a lot of playing time, stats are skewed fairly dramatically over 1 or 2 games. Foles had a monster season passing his stats from like 8 years ago (too lazy to look) and Tru had a 6TD game in his limited time with Nagy. You almost need to eliminate the top 10% and bottom 10% of their performances and then average the rest out to get a "normal" game from them. Tru showed enough in 2018 that I thought he was going to take that step forward to be a 30/12 and 4000 yard guy. This last season he had so many easy missed throws and reads I'm concerned he is going to be a career reserve. I hope he catches fire for us but just lack faith in him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 3 hours ago, G08 said: 6.7 In 2019 it was 6.1, which is why his 10 INTs that season doesn't mean much. His 2018 season where he threw 12 with 80ish less passes was much more impressive to me because he actually had the balls to let it fly. Plus he had 1 or 2 hail mary passes at the end of the half that season that got intercepted too iirc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G08 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 4 hours ago, abstract_thought said: Stop looking at the raw stats with no context. That’s how Bears fans oversold Trubisky after 2018. What context do you like? Wins and losses? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G08 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 48 minutes ago, Sugashane said: In 2019 it was 6.1, which is why his 10 INTs that season doesn't mean much. His 2018 season where he threw 12 with 80ish less passes was much more impressive to me because he actually had the balls to let it fly. Plus he had 1 or 2 hail mary passes at the end of the half that season that got intercepted too iirc. I think a lotttt of those BS Cohen receptions that were a yard or less from the LOS drove that number down too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, G08 said: What context do you like? Wins and losses? 1. Consider external factors. 2. Watch the player play football games. 3. Look at advanced stats like DVOA, ANAY/A, Depth of Target, etc. Edited May 22, 2020 by abstract_thought 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 12 hours ago, G08 said: (extrapolated) 64.7%/82 TDs/44 INTs/6.7 YPA/88.7 rating 58 games 2 hours ago, Sugashane said: But that's why extrapolating stats sucks to me. I'm glad you addressed this before I did because you already know how I feel about it lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 1 hour ago, G08 said: What context do you like? Wins and losses? How many of those raw numbers are from short passes? Were they designed short pass plays or check downs? How many of those incompletions were throw away passes? How many of them were caused from poor route running, or dropped passes, or just good plays made by a defender? How much pressure did the the defense get upfront? Important things like these is why raw stats don't tell you crap. Not even those other made up statistics like ANY/A that essentially use raw numbers. What's more important is HOW those stats got there and raw numbers can't tell you any of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBears019 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 1 hour ago, G08 said: I think a lotttt of those BS Cohen receptions that were a yard or less from the LOS drove that number down too. I agree with you, but aren’t you really against people saying something along the lines of, “Sure he had a decent season, but if you remove games A, B, and C you’ll see that he didn’t really do that well”? Isn’t this kind of the same? Sure, his YPA was low, but if you remove all those short passes to Cohen it would be higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G08 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, CBears019 said: I agree with you, but aren’t you really against people saying something along the lines of, “Sure he had a decent season, but if you remove games A, B, and C you’ll see that he didn’t really do that well”? Isn’t this kind of the same? Sure, his YPA was low, but if you remove all those short passes to Cohen it would be higher. I think if the emphasis is on 6.1 YPA, and you have more than a handful of plays that literally gained 1 yard, it's tough to keep your YPA around 7. I get what you're saying though, but I'm also not saying remove an INT, remove these receptions, etc. I'm saying consider it when looking at the statistic. Similar to what @JustAnotherFan was trumpeting in his post earlier. For example.. Tarik Cohen had 79 receptions for 456 yards (5.8 average), 429 of those yards were after the ball was caught. That's about a quarter of Trubisky's completions. Edited May 22, 2020 by G08 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G08 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 33 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said: I'm glad you addressed this before I did because you already know how I feel about it lol. It's just a quick and easy way to put those same numbers in another context. Settle down lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 1 minute ago, G08 said: It's just a quick and easy way to put those same numbers in another context. Settle down lol I know man lol. It's just one of those that some fans tend to do that irk me so much! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 4 hours ago, G08 said: I think a lotttt of those BS Cohen receptions that were a yard or less from the LOS drove that number down too. True. We're also probably a bottom 3 team in YAC too (just guessing,no numbers to back that statement up). Part if that is on Tru having accuracy issues so he cant hit guysbin stride regularly enough, but some was also just guys not making a play when one on one in the open field. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G08 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 12 hours ago, Sugashane said: True. We're also probably a bottom 3 team in YAC too (just guessing,no numbers to back that statement up). Part if that is on Tru having accuracy issues so he cant hit guysbin stride regularly enough, but some was also just guys not making a play when one on one in the open field. We ranked 28th with 1,619 yards after catch KC was 2nd with 2,272 PHI was 15th with 1,876 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G08 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 16 hours ago, abstract_thought said: 1. Consider external factors. 2. Watch the player play football games. 3. Look at advanced stats like DVOA, ANAY/A, Depth of Target, etc. Trubisky Time to throw: 34th out of 39 at 2.64 seconds Average completed air yards: 5.1 (Brees at 5.2, Garoppolo 5.4, Rodgers 5.4) Average intended air yards: 7.9 (Garoppolo 6.5, Brees 6.7, Wentz 7.9) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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