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Bears to decline Trub's 5th year option


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38 minutes ago, G08 said:

Let's say Nick Foles wins the job and keeps it for the next 3 seasons, averages aa TD to INT ratio around 2:1 and QB  rating of 89.

Are we happy?

Are we adding a young high upside guy to develop? Then yes.

I think the chances are incredibly low that it happens. Foles has never started 16 games whether by injury or incompetence.

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1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

One of the biggest reasons to hire Nagy was getting an offensive system to master and developing a young QB. 

So you'd be against keeping Foles (in that scenario) because he isn't young? O.o

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3 hours ago, G08 said:

Let's say Nick Foles wins the job and keeps it for the next 3 seasons, averages aa TD to INT ratio around 2:1 and QB  rating of 89.

Are we happy?

So we’d be getting 2013-2015 Cutler? With our defense that probably puts us in the playoffs at least 2 of those 3 years with a realistic chance to beat anyone, so I’m probably not upset with it, but it’s not exactly blowing my skirt up either. 

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5 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

It will be Mitch's fourth season, regardless. If he doesn't come out as the starter to begin the year, and plays well, I don't see how any of us can be certain a regression to "Bad Mitch" is more than just a sequence away...

My point with the part you bolded is that every QB has “Bad [Insert name here]” games over the course of the season. Mitch had a lot of them last year and that needs to not happen, but if he wins the job and then one happens in week 1 or 2 what good is it going to do to freak the **** out and start calling for his head? If there’s going to be mass hysteria every time our QB isn’t great, which by the way is the M.O. for this fan base, then nothing will ever be good enough. He certainly doesn’t get the whole year in 2020 to play it out if subpar performances are as frequent as in 2019 but if Mitch isn’t immediately and always really good starting the second he hits the field in 2020 people will be ready to get rid of him. Nobody can ever meet that standard. If he wins the job then he has to get at least some margin for error, but you know as well as I do that for the vast majority of fans that won’t be the case. Why would we force it upon him as a fan base to be afraid to make any mistakes knowing where that road leads? That **** is just dumb, and yet we continue to do it with QB after QB after QB. We booed Mitch off the field in the first quarter of week 1 last year coming off a 12-win season. Week one! Don’t think for a second that stuff doesn’t matter.

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6 hours ago, GOGRIESE said:

Nick Foles knows this defense all too well by now. I think he wins the job easily

How does Nick Foles know this defense so well when he has only played against them one time under a different DC two years ago and there has been no offseason programs at all this year? He went to Jags last year, who also had a good defense , and it meant nothing. Meanwhile, Mitch has spent the last 2 years with the same defense, so I don't understand your angle here.

It also takes time for a QB to build trust and camaraderie with his WR's and the other offensive units and you can't really do that during a social distancing period. Building that trust don't just happen overnight.

By the time Foles gets a chance to spend any real time with his new staff and offense the new season is going to be upon us. Do you really think Pace/Nagy are going to start a newly acquainted QB with very limited experience in this offense over a former 1st round QB by Pace who does have experience and they have won with at the helm?

Do you know how asinine that would be?

The only way Foles starts the season is if he plays lights out in the preseason (if we have any) and I really mean LIGHTS OUT---like Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes in a regular season game lights out!  

2 hours ago, G08 said:

Let's say Nick Foles wins the job and keeps it for the next 3 seasons, averages aa TD to INT ratio around 2:1 and QB  rating of 89.

Are we happy?

No. A player like Foles is not worth betting the future on. He is a stop-gap at best.

Not only is it unrealistic to think that Foles is still here in 3 years, but a good TD/INT ratio and a 89 QB rating means nothing without context behind those numbers.  

Foles being here for 2 years is possible if Mitch absolutely sucks again this year but that's probably about it.

Best case scenario is that Foles will be used in 2020 as a backup plan in case Mitch entirely wets the bed and they have to bench him and then Foles will be used in 2021 as a stop-gap while the 1st round QB learns the ropes. Sort of how the they did with another high priced stop-gap QB named Glennon when they drafted Mitch.  

The realistic length of time that Foles is going to be a Bear is no more than likely 2 years, at best. Not only because of all of what I mentioned above but also because of how his contract is structured. Stay with me for moment, it all comes to a head.

His contract is reportedly filled with alot of likely incentive-based performance clauses that essentially allows him to leave freely with no obligations after 2020. But ONLY IF he meets those incentives that Foles and the front office agreed upon--which, to my knowledge, is unknown. But it sounds to me like most of those incentives that are laced in the contract are more "likely base incentives" as opposed to the popular "unlikely incentives" that teams usually use to circumvent the system (I.e a pass rusher getting 2 passing TD's in a single season).

Based on what I do know, it seems like the negotiations went something like this.

Basically, the Bears FO said "we wanna sign Foles to a one year deal if you take the contract hit. What do you think?  

Foles and his agent said "but I'm nearly 32 years old and I'm looking for a longer term contract." and the Jags said "Plus i'm not taking on that contract hit". 

The Bears FO said to Foles/Jags "fine, we will take on your current contract so that the Jags don't have to eat it but only if you agree to restructure it?" 

Then the Bears FO said "this is the restructured offer. We will offer you a 3 year deal and if you fulfill these specific requirements in year one (2020) then we will void your contract for the next 2 years and you are free to test free agency again in 2021. BUT if you don't fulfill them, then the next 2 years of the contract belong to us and we are free to do what we want". 

I'm bringing this up because his contract will play a big part in your hypothetical scenario (beings that it also gives the Bears FO/ Pace a easy out after year 1 with minimal loss (3.7M) if Foles doesn't meet those requirements).

Lets be real, if Mitch gets benched at any point in this season then it's more than likely that we are already damn near dead in the water with little chance of making the playoffs and have a record something like 1-4, 2-5. etc.

Now, how is Foles going to meet those (unknown) requirements that were set in his contract when the only time he is going to see on the field is when the team itself is in that much disarray? He would literally, again, have to play his best season never and lift this team to the heights of levels similar to Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Brees, and that's very unlikely given his history.

 

 

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I'm digging into Nick Foles' career numbers... I mean, isn't this dude Mitch Trubisky's NFL career in Nagy's offense?

Trubisky: 64.7%/41 TDs/22 INTs/6.7 YPA/88.7 rating  29 games   19-10 record

(extrapolated) 64.7%/82 TDs/44 INTs/6.7 YPA/88.7 rating    58 games

 

Foles: 61.9%/71 TDs/35 INTs/7.0 YPA/88.2 rating       58 games    26-22 record

Edited by G08
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16 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

So you'd be against keeping Foles (in that scenario) because he isn't young? O.o

No, Nagy was hired while Tru was fresh off his rookie season. He was supposed to be developed under Nagy. 

But I don't want Foles because he is who he is at this point - a journeyman who is a potentially high-end back up or a low-end starter. I don't see him being a top 20 QB, so I don't want to commit to another expensive weak link. His good streaks have been brief and his career mean is far below what we should expect for a long-term (over 2 years) answer. I know we're Bears fans, but dammit we have to raise expectations from the norm for QBs here. 

 

14 hours ago, G08 said:

@Sugashane @WindyCity @AZBearsFan

Trubisky's career numbers in Nagy's system: 41 TDs, 22 INTs, 88.7 rating

And with that statline the team has average 22.2 PPG with him starting under Nagy. Something like 6 TDs from defense in 2018 included in that (quite a bit from the norm) and his INT numbers are skewed due to how over-conservative he is. I mean a 6.1 YPA doesn't give much chance of being intercepted, its low risk and laughably low reward usually. If we are cherrypicking numbers Minshrew can look like a top talent. 3.5/1 TD to INT ratio, 91.2 QBR, etc.  Two years in Flip's system he could have been 42/12 TD/INT, in less games than Tru had over his two seasons. So if we are going to play this game then Flip/Minshrew > Nagy/Tru. 

As far as records go, the defense was the big reason for his winning record.  

Tru's overall body of work isn't impressive. Tru's led an offense that failed to score at least 22 points in 10 of his last 14 starts (not counting MIN, he had like 3 passes), and I just don't believe he will straighten his career out to be the star we hoped him to be. 

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1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

Two years in Flip's system he could have been 42/12 TD/INT, in less games than Tru had over his two seasons. So if we are going to play this game then Flip/Minshrew > Nagy/Tru. 

I mean that's 12 starts vs 29 starts, but your point remains

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7 hours ago, G08 said:

I'm digging into Nick Foles' career numbers... I mean, isn't this dude Mitch Trubisky's NFL career in Nagy's offense?

Trubisky: 64.7%/41 TDs/22 INTs/6.7 YPA/88.7 rating  29 games   19-10 record

(extrapolated) 64.7%/82 TDs/44 INTs/6.7 YPA/88.7 rating    58 games

 

Foles: 61.9%/71 TDs/35 INTs/7.0 YPA/88.2 rating       58 games    26-22 record

They are almost identical.

 

The playoffs are the only difference.

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1 hour ago, abstract_thought said:

Stop looking at the raw stats with no context. That’s how Bears fans oversold Trubisky after 2018.

Like the context that Foles played behind the best line in the league with an All Pro TE.

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