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Bears to decline Trub's 5th year option


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17 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

My point with the part you bolded is that every QB has “Bad [Insert name here]” games over the course of the season. Mitch had a lot of them last year and that needs to not happen, but if he wins the job and then one happens in week 1 or 2 what good is it going to do to freak the **** out and start calling for his head? If there’s going to be mass hysteria every time our QB isn’t great, which by the way is the M.O. for this fan base, then nothing will ever be good enough. He certainly doesn’t get the whole year in 2020 to play it out if subpar performances are as frequent as in 2019 but if Mitch isn’t immediately and always really good starting the second he hits the field in 2020 people will be ready to get rid of him. Nobody can ever meet that standard. If he wins the job then he has to get at least some margin for error, but you know as well as I do that for the vast majority of fans that won’t be the case. Why would we force it upon him as a fan base to be afraid to make any mistakes knowing where that road leads? That **** is just dumb, and yet we continue to do it with QB after QB after QB. We booed Mitch off the field in the first quarter of week 1 last year coming off a 12-win season. Week one! Don’t think for a second that stuff doesn’t matter.

I think there's a difference between Mitch simply having a bad game--as that can happen for any number of reasons--and the reappearance of "Bad Mitch". I basically agree with what you posted there. To me, it's not even about pure stats, and W-L. It's about composure, and processing things mentally. His ridiculous overthrows and underthrows were all mental in nature, as were any number of other things. Mitch can play well and not have a win or a good stat line, and we'll know it, we'll see it. If he's balling out, we'll know it.

Well, at least most of us will. ;)

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3 hours ago, G08 said:

I mean that's 12 starts vs 29 starts, but your point remains

True. But that's why extrapolating stats sucks to me. If a baseball player played 10 years and had a major injury that greatly altered his ability then sure, there's 162 games a year so there is a lot of time for highs and lows to even out. That's over 1000 games to find a mean. In football with 16 game seasons, especially with guys who haven't had a lot of playing time, stats are skewed fairly dramatically over 1 or 2 games. Foles had a monster season passing his stats from like 8 years ago (too lazy to look) and Tru had a 6TD game in his limited time with Nagy. You almost need to eliminate the top 10% and bottom 10% of their performances and then average the rest out to get a "normal" game from them. 

 

Tru showed enough in 2018 that I thought he was going to take that step forward to be a 30/12 and 4000 yard guy. This last season he had so many easy missed throws and reads I'm concerned he is going to be a career reserve. I hope he catches fire for us but just lack faith in him. 

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3 hours ago, G08 said:

6.7

In 2019 it was 6.1, which is why his 10 INTs that season doesn't mean much. His 2018 season where he threw 12 with 80ish less passes was much more impressive to me because he actually had the balls to let it fly.

Plus he had 1 or 2 hail mary passes at the end of the half that season that got intercepted too iirc. 

 

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4 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Stop looking at the raw stats with no context. That’s how Bears fans oversold Trubisky after 2018.

What context do you like? Wins and losses?

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48 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

In 2019 it was 6.1, which is why his 10 INTs that season doesn't mean much. His 2018 season where he threw 12 with 80ish less passes was much more impressive to me because he actually had the balls to let it fly.

Plus he had 1 or 2 hail mary passes at the end of the half that season that got intercepted too iirc. 

 

I think a lotttt of those BS Cohen receptions that were a yard or less from the LOS drove that number down too.

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12 hours ago, G08 said:

(extrapolated) 64.7%/82 TDs/44 INTs/6.7 YPA/88.7 rating    58 games

2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

But that's why extrapolating stats sucks to me.

I'm glad you addressed this before I did because you already know how I feel about it lol.

21e0a1a6a84f0e27a01847f251dab719.gif

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, G08 said:

What context do you like? Wins and losses?

How many of those raw numbers are from short passes? Were they designed short pass plays or check downs? How many of those incompletions were throw away passes? How many of them were caused from poor route running, or dropped passes, or just good plays made by a defender? How much pressure did the the defense get upfront? 

Important things like these is why raw stats don't tell you crap. Not even those other made up statistics like ANY/A that essentially use raw numbers.

What's more important is HOW those stats got there and raw numbers can't tell you any of that.

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1 hour ago, G08 said:

I think a lotttt of those BS Cohen receptions that were a yard or less from the LOS drove that number down too.

I agree with you, but aren’t you really against people saying something along the lines of, “Sure he had a decent season, but if you remove games A, B, and C you’ll see that he didn’t really do that well”?

Isn’t this kind of the same?  Sure, his YPA was low, but if you remove all those short passes to Cohen it would be higher.

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21 minutes ago, CBears019 said:

I agree with you, but aren’t you really against people saying something along the lines of, “Sure he had a decent season, but if you remove games A, B, and C you’ll see that he didn’t really do that well”?

Isn’t this kind of the same?  Sure, his YPA was low, but if you remove all those short passes to Cohen it would be higher.

I think if the emphasis is on 6.1 YPA, and you have more than a handful of plays that literally gained 1 yard, it's tough to keep your YPA around 7.

I get what you're saying though, but I'm also not saying remove an INT, remove these receptions, etc. I'm saying consider it when looking at the statistic.

Similar to what @JustAnotherFan was trumpeting in his post earlier.

 

For example.. Tarik Cohen had 79 receptions for 456 yards (5.8 average), 429 of those yards were after the ball was caught. That's about a quarter of Trubisky's completions.

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33 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I'm glad you addressed this before I did because you already know how I feel about it lol.

21e0a1a6a84f0e27a01847f251dab719.gif

 

 

 

It's just a quick and easy way to put those same numbers in another context. Settle down lol

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1 minute ago, G08 said:

It's just a quick and easy way to put those same numbers in another context. Settle down lol

I know man lol. It's just one of those that some fans tend to do that irk me so much! 

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4 hours ago, G08 said:

I think a lotttt of those BS Cohen receptions that were a yard or less from the LOS drove that number down too.

True. We're also probably a bottom 3 team in YAC too (just guessing,no numbers to back that statement up). Part if that is on Tru having accuracy issues so he cant hit guysbin stride regularly enough, but some was also just guys not making a play when one on one in the open field. 

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12 hours ago, Sugashane said:

True. We're also probably a bottom 3 team in YAC too (just guessing,no numbers to back that statement up). Part if that is on Tru having accuracy issues so he cant hit guysbin stride regularly enough, but some was also just guys not making a play when one on one in the open field. 

We ranked 28th with 1,619 yards after catch

KC was 2nd with 2,272

PHI was 15th with 1,876

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16 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

1. Consider external factors.

2. Watch the player play football games.

3. Look at advanced stats like DVOA, ANAY/A, Depth of Target, etc.

Trubisky

Time to throw: 34th out of 39 at 2.64 seconds

Average completed air yards: 5.1 (Brees at 5.2, Garoppolo 5.4, Rodgers 5.4)

Average intended air yards: 7.9 (Garoppolo 6.5, Brees 6.7, Wentz 7.9)

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