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VanS

Trey Lance might be the best QB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft...

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Posted (edited)

So I saw Trey Lance (North Dakota St.) near the top of some of the way too early 2021 mock drafts and decided to check him out since I never heard of him before.  Lets just say he immediately impressed me.  So much so that I'm now wondering if he might be a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence.

Trey Lance reminds me so much of Donovan McNabb when he played at Syracuse.  Like McNabb I think he has the makings to be an elite QB in the NFL.  Lance vs Lawrence could be the great QB debate of 2021.

Edited by VanS

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You could absolutely be right. We see it each and every year. Where was Burrow a year ago? Surefire 1st rounders take nosedives, borderline draftable prospects vault themselves into high 1st round territory. Fields could put up a bigger show than Lawrence, who could stagnate, struggle with injuries, or just be dissected under the microscope. I can already hear the critics that he is a throw it up for grabs QB rather than a sophisticated passer.

Lance could put up a season for the ages and if Lawrence doesn't improve on his stats, we might already have a discussion. Don't forget about Fields who could break records and take another leap as well and make a run for that top spot.

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I'm not ready to make that sort of leap and proclamation (better than Lawrence) until I've had an opportunity to look into his eyes.

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Lance didn't play against a single FBS team last season.

Oregon Week 1 will be the only FBS opponent this coming season. That game alone will probably determine how fast the hype train begins.

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1 minute ago, Tetsujin said:

Lance didn't play against a single FBS team last season.

Oregon Week 1 will be the only FBS opponent this coming season. That game alone will probably determine how fast the hype train begins.

yep. 

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1 hour ago, Fullback said:

You could absolutely be right. We see it each and every year. Where was Burrow a year ago? Surefire 1st rounders take nosedives, borderline draftable prospects vault themselves into high 1st round territory. Fields could put up a bigger show than Lawrence, who could stagnate, struggle with injuries, or just be dissected under the microscope. I can already hear the critics that he is a throw it up for grabs QB rather than a sophisticated passer.

Lance could put up a season for the ages and if Lawrence doesn't improve on his stats, we might already have a discussion. Don't forget about Fields who could break records and take another leap as well and make a run for that top spot.

I don't look at stats so much as traits, skill set, and intangibles.  Lance and Lawrence look a level up above fields IMO.  So it doesn't really matter how much more productive Fields becomes.  He will need to improve his skill set throwing the ball for me to elevate him.

My only concern with Trevor Lawrence are the intangibles.  Physically he might be close to the perfect QB.  But physical skill isn't sufficient to becoming an all-time great.  You also need elite intangibles.  Trey Lance is physically not as gifted as Trevor Lawrence but if he has a superior work ethic its likely he can have a superior NFL career. 

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1 hour ago, Tetsujin said:

Lance didn't play against a single FBS team last season.

Oregon Week 1 will be the only FBS opponent this coming season. That game alone will probably determine how fast the hype train begins.

Doesn't really matter.  Traits and skill set are readily apparent on tape regardless of the competition.  The guy has great size, athleticism, and arm talent.   All quality of competition will do is affect his teammates that are less talented.

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Have people actually watched Trey Lance or are they just basing this off of quick youtube hightlights seen?  Watching Lance play in multiple playoff games I was not wowed by his arm talent.  He is a gifted athlete and had a great season as a RS FR but the numbers he put up are similar to Easton Stick the year previous.  They have an effective QB run game and know how to use it at NDSU, Lance has to show me way more arm talent and ability to throw the ball to be this 1st round prospect some speak of him being.  

Sucks for Trey the QB room in the NFL is stacked and it is damn hard to even get on a roster at QB because there are too many of them in the league right now.  With the rule changes which greatly benefit the QB and lengthen their career, not to mention how it makes the game easier to play because of the lack of contact and hitting compared to 15-20 years ago.  Sure the QB group in the up coming draft is not great but I see no reason why Trey Lance should come out early.

 

The list of RS SOPH guys to come into the NFL is not very good at all.  Tons of talented guys and guys who have been kind of productive but all lacked longevity to their careers.  Could be different with the likes of Sam Darnold maybe but Manziel flamed out, so did Kizer, Vick was amazing early then a huge crash with a slight rebound.  Haskins did not do nothing great last year and Winston just signed a 1 year contract for $1 million after leading the league in passing yards.  So yeah coming out early as a RS SOPH QB is not a great idea based on that track record.  

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Are we already reaching levels of prospect fatigue with Lawrence?  Trey has some solid traits, but hasn't come close to catching Trevor yet.  If he has a breakout season, we can let the Tre La debates begin in the fall.

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1 hour ago, INbengalfan said:

If he has a breakout season, we can let the Tre La debates begin in the fall.

You can’t give shortened version nicknames to ppl with monosyllabic names. 

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6 minutes ago, thrILL! said:

You can’t give shortened version nicknames to ppl with monosyllabic names. 

That wasn't the point...

 

They both start with "Tre" and "La".  If Lance breaks out, then we can debate which is better

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Have people actually watched Trey Lance or are they just basing this off of quick youtube hightlights seen?  Watching Lance play in multiple playoff games I was not wowed by his arm talent.  He is a gifted athlete and had a great season as a RS FR but the numbers he put up are similar to Easton Stick the year previous. 

Think about what you just said......a redshirt freshman put up similar numbers to a four-year starter who was a 5th round pick in the NFL Draft. That's very impressive to me. Also.....Easton Stick threw 7 INTs as a senior to Lance's 0 as a redshirt freshman, and Lance ran for 1,100 yards to Stick's 700 yards.

And yes, I've watched him play a lot. I'd confidently say I've watched him more than anyone else on this forum. I'm from his hometown and have covered him since his first high school start late in his sophomore year. He's the real deal. He actually exceeded my expectations by a lot in his first season at NDSU, so I wouldn't put anything past him.

Edited by Klomp

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Posted (edited)

Interesting that a Trey Lance hype thread comes up within 24 hours of a justbombs Trey Lance highlight video B|

Haven't dug into the normal tape on him myself significantly, but yeah he's got some impressive highlights at least, and while highlights quite certainly don't tell the whole picture on a prospect, I never trust a prospect without a decent collection of HL/splash plays to their credit.

Definitely an intriguing prospect for next year's QB hungry teams.

Edited by Epyon

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51 minutes ago, Klomp said:

Think about what you just said......a redshirt freshman put up similar numbers to a four-year starter who was a 5th round pick in the NFL Draft. That's very impressive to me. Also.....Easton Stick threw 7 INTs as a senior to Lance's 0 as a redshirt freshman, and Lance ran for 1,100 yards to Stick's 700 yards.

And yes, I've watched him play a lot. I'd confidently say I've watched him more than anyone else on this forum. I'm from his hometown and have covered him since his first high school start late in his sophomore year. He's the real deal. He actually exceeded my expectations by a lot in his first season at NDSU, so I wouldn't put anything past him.

He throws a pretty damn wobbly football to be honest.  Take away his run threat and throwing on the move, his passing is pretty limited I feel if kept in the pocket.  I am aware what year Stick was in, and the impressive 0 INTs Lance threw last year.  Mind you he was an absolute unknown player no one knew anything about and few expected much out of him.   Could argue Kedon Slovis, Dillon Gabriel and Hank Bachmeier played just as good of a freshman season as Trey Lance did.  Sure they did not win a National Title but all played far better competition and Slovis has an outstanding arm, and I think Gabriel throws a better football as well.  But they are not RS FR QBs, they are all true FR QBs and good thing for Lance the QB group in general is pretty down across the board if you look at the SR and JR classes.  Take Lawrence and Fields out and it really takes a dive.  

 

Few quarterbacks have that type of freshman season, much less at the FCS level.  Deondre Francois looked awesome as a RS FR QB at Florida State and things did not turn out so great for him this past season, kicked out of FSU, played for a smaller college but did not get drafted or signed as a UDFA in this years draft.  So Trey Lance will have a very high bar to reach this year if there even is a season.  Local kid and would be great to see him succeed but projecting him as a top 5 pick in the 2021 draft as a RS SOPH is not helping his development that is for damn sure.  

 

J'Bore Gibbs on South Dakota State played awesome this past season as a RS FR, and no one is calling him to enter early to the draft.  Mind you his injury cut his season short but he was on pace to do well like Trey Lance did those first 5 games.  And Gibbs played a FBS school, Trey Lance did not.

 

Would be great to see him succeed no doubt but might need to wait and see how he does with another year or two of performance.  For him to consider entering the draft at this point would be a mistake.  The last thing he needs is some Johnny Football type hype machine to surround him.

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4 hours ago, VanS said:

All quality of competition will do is affect his teammates that are less talented.

That’s not true at all.

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