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Trey Lance might be the best QB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft...


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8 hours ago, incognito_man said:

100% agreed about situation. The only shot Lance has is if he sits for a minimum of one full year. Probably 2. He's more raw and has worse mechanics, progression and experience than Jordan Love.

There's no comparison between Lance and Love.  Trey is on a completely different level.

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9 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Disagree, he’s gonna be a beast. Don’t agree with the title of the thread, but I would bet on the boom. Especially going to the 49ers, just like Mahomes went to the Chiefs. Very possible Mahomes could of busted if he went to 70% of other teams. When it comes to QB’s like Mahomes and Lance, you need an expert offensive guru to develop them like Reid or Shanahan. 

This is the biggest x-factor right here. I have full confidence in Mini-Shannys ability to get the best out of his QB. I think any of the top guys would have found success with him.

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3 hours ago, VanS said:

How come?  Don't we as humans use the past to try and predict the future?

You're using one player for a comparison though. For every Josh Allen there are a ton of other quarterbacks that just had bad accuracy, and never improved upon it. Allen is an exception. Now that Trey is a 49er, I hope he's another exception. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
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11 hours ago, incognito_man said:

100% agreed about situation. The only shot Lance has is if he sits for a minimum of one full year. Probably 2. He's more raw and has worse mechanics, progression and experience than Jordan Love.

All of his tape is from 2019 when he is 19 years old. He spent the entire off year working on his mechanics and watching NFL film. The mechanics at his proday looked much sharper than what you can see in the film from 2019

His accuracy was inconsistent to be sure. Some have said he is not a natural thrower. There are times when his deep ball is too flat and doesnt get enough air under it. There are times he throws laser with no touch.   

Inconsistent doesnt mean he wasnt accurate though. There were plenty of times where he threw perfectly placed balls that were on time and in rhythm. When he did miss passes, he made sure to put it in a place where either his WR got it or no one did. It wasnt an accident that he didnt throw an interception in a 16 game season. Thats hard to do for anyone. He protects the football while also making big plays, that is attractive on a lot of levels, especially considering that turnovers are what have plagued 49ers QBs for over 10 years now since we played Kaep over Alex Smith (but especially recently, nick mullens, cj beathard, and garoppolo all turn the ball over a ton) this was assuredly something that was appealing as well. 

Considering he was not recruited as QB and was from a very small town in the middle of nowhere, I am sure that this was the first time he received legitimate, high quality QB coaching with regards to his mechanics and footwork. The fact that the release did improve so much shows how coachable he is and how committed he is to working on his craft. I dont think its unreasonable to assume he has already made a huge improvement from what you see on film.  

Typically I dont like to take a guy who was a one year starter, because teams didnt get a full offseason to study him and make adjustments, because I like to see how guys can adjust back once they hit a rough patch. In this instance though, he gets a pass. Not his fault here. 

I am going to strongly disagree with you on his progressions. I think the way he goes through his progressions is exactly what drew Kyle to him in the first place. He goes through them very fast and isnt limited to one side of the field. There are plenty of examples of him going to the third or fourth read very quickly. He finds the open guy consistently. His pocket presence seems off the charts as well. There are also times he looks like Big Ben in the sense he buys time and then finds a receiver who has adjusted his route on the fly. If you disagree with this, I would suggest you revisit the tape you watched because it is extremely evident. The statement he has worse progressions than Jordan Love is patently false. 

I cant help but laugh when I read that his only shot is if he sits for a year, considering he literally just sat for a year. He didnt gain experience, but he did make improvements to his mechanics, which seems to be one of your major gripes about him. You would hope that it would make his accuracy more consistent.  

One final thing I would like to add is that he appears to be extremely humble, grounded, and down to earth. You cant help but be impressed by the way he carries himself for a 20 year old. I think this will increase the chances he hits his ceiling more than just about anything else. 

I am not here to make grandiose proclamations regarding his future. I am simply here to provide some factual information and erase any misconceptions. The kid is a legit, blue chip QB prospect who got put in an absolute perfect situation. Not only does he have a stellar OL, ground game, weapons, and coaching, but he isnt a day one starter. 

PS. The only QB in NFL history to have more passing yards in their first 16 starts than Nick Mullens is Patrick Mahomes. take that for what its worth (not much) 

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16 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

You're using one player for a comparison though. For every Josh Allen there are a ton of other quarterbacks that just had bad accuracy, and never improved upon it. Allen is an exception. Now that Trey is a 49er, I hope he's another exception. 

But remember, I was the guy on this site telling everyone for years that Josh Allen was not inaccurate.  That all he needed was a better supporting cast and he would put up monster passing numbers because I saw the insane talent he possessed.  All I'm saying is I see something similar in Trey Lance.  I disagree with your assumption he has accuracy issues just as I never bought into the myth Josh Allen had accuracy issues.

Trey Lance oozes the same superstar ability Josh Allen possesed.

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1 hour ago, VanS said:

But remember, I was the guy on this site telling everyone for years that Josh Allen was not inaccurate.  That all he needed was a better supporting cast and he would put up monster passing numbers because I saw the insane talent he possessed.  All I'm saying is I see something similar in Trey Lance.  I disagree with your assumption he has accuracy issues just as I never bought into the myth Josh Allen had accuracy issues.

Trey Lance oozes the same superstar ability Josh Allen possesed.

We also will forever remember you were the guy riding Josh dobbs....

there is a track record of garbage hot takes for the sake of hot takes

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On 5/3/2021 at 11:35 AM, incognito_man said:

100% agreed about situation. The only shot Lance has is if he sits for a minimum of one full year. Probably 2. He's more raw and has worse mechanics, progression and experience than Jordan Love.

Ted Nguyen wrote an article about top 10 scheme fits from the draft and has Trey Lance at #1. See his reasoning below:

Quote

One of my favorite qualities I saw from Lance while reviewing his film, is how quickly he progresses through reads and how quickly he snaps his lower body from read to read. The time from when he makes a decision to throw the ball and when the ball arrives at the target because of his lower-body mechanics, release and explosive arm is very short and I believe that is imperative in a Shanahan offense.

https://theathletic.com/2558295/2021/05/05/teds-film-room-my-10-favorite-scheme-and-player-fits-from-the-2021-nfl-draft/

So I think you are mistaken in your assessment. Not only is he going through his reads very fast, but he is also moving his lower body while doing so, allowing him to pull the trigger immediately when he sees something he likes.  

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On 5/3/2020 at 2:43 PM, Ozzy said:

Have people actually watched Trey Lance or are they just basing this off of quick youtube hightlights seen?  Watching Lance play in multiple playoff games I was not wowed by his arm talent.  He is a gifted athlete and had a great season as a RS FR but the numbers he put up are similar to Easton Stick the year previous.  They have an effective QB run game and know how to use it at NDSU, Lance has to show me way more arm talent and ability to throw the ball to be this 1st round prospect some speak of him being.  

Sucks for Trey the QB room in the NFL is stacked and it is damn hard to even get on a roster at QB because there are too many of them in the league right now.  With the rule changes which greatly benefit the QB and lengthen their career, not to mention how it makes the game easier to play because of the lack of contact and hitting compared to 15-20 years ago.  Sure the QB group in the up coming draft is not great but I see no reason why Trey Lance should come out early.

 

The list of RS SOPH guys to come into the NFL is not very good at all.  Tons of talented guys and guys who have been kind of productive but all lacked longevity to their careers.  Could be different with the likes of Sam Darnold maybe but Manziel flamed out, so did Kizer, Vick was amazing early then a huge crash with a slight rebound.  Haskins did not do nothing great last year and Winston just signed a 1 year contract for $1 million after leading the league in passing yards.  So yeah coming out early as a RS SOPH QB is not a great idea based on that track record.  

A few have reacted to this post I made almost a year ago.

 

Fact is after that pro day I was amazed by Trey Lance's throwing arm and overall athletic ability.  As it states above I did not seem big time arm talent in him during games for NDSU.  But that year off and what he did at that pro day changed my mind.  The ball rocketed off his hand and he showed much improved pocket mechanics and leg power throwing the football.  Great base and release, sure a few throws were off but he showed such progression in just a year, think about two or three years from now.

 

He was absolutely worth the 3rd pick overall and the comparisons to Josh Allen in terms of arm talent and upside are correct.  Josh Allen does have a better arm though in terms of power and velocity but Trey Lance is by far the better athlete of the two. Sure he did not start a ton of games but the pandemic was not exactly his fault.  The QB draft for 2021 obviously changed as well with the emergence of Mac Jones and  Zach Wilson which almost no one expected this time last year.

Still true with the RS SOPH QB track record, but some guys without a ton of starts have been successful, Kyler Murray was 12-2 as a starter in college, not a RS SOPH but a RS JR I believe.  He has not done awful in the NFL and Trey Lance is a bigger stronger athlete than Kyler with a stronger arm arguably.  

Either way that pro day was a game changer for me in how I viewed Trey Lance, and in that 49ers system he should do outstanding, especially if he is allowed to sit and develop a little bit but that might not happen and could get time this season already.

 

If Lance played a full season this year at NDSU and there was no pandemic, it would not even be a conversation if he is a great QB prospect or not.  So yeah things change, maybe even the Jets might be looking back one day and saying hey, we should have taken Trey Lance.   

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4 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Fact is after that pro day I was amazed by Trey Lance's throwing arm and overall athletic ability.  As it states above I did not seem big time arm talent in him during games for NDSU.  But that year off and what he did at that pro day changed my mind.  The ball rocketed off his hand and he showed much improved pocket mechanics and leg power throwing the football.  Great base and release, sure a few throws were off but he showed such progression in just a year, think about two or three years from now

Absolutely. The proday was extremely impressive and showed just as much about him mentally as it did physically. He looked very polished. Everything looked easy but then the ball jumped out of his hand as you said. It was also a very fast paced work out and he didnt seem to get very tired, which shows a commitment on his part. 

I have repeatedly ragged on Jimmy Garoppolo for coming back in 2020 with WORSE footwork than he had in 2019, when footwork was the most obvious/easiest thing he could improve upon. It comes off like he didnt work on his craft during the pandemic. Lance improved significantly. That speaks volumes. 

Your post last year was spot on at the time. He didnt win games with his arm talent. He did it by being in complete control of the offense and executing plays. Fair comments about other QBs who didnt have the experience and came out early. Sometimes you can get caught up in the hype of a flash in the pan type prospect, someone who doesnt have the maturity to handle the spot light, but yet is coming out early for fame and fortune. That doesnt appear to be this dude though. Seems incredibly grounded.  

4 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Either way that pro day was a game changer for me in how I viewed Trey Lance, and in that 49ers system he should do outstanding, especially if he is allowed to sit and develop a little bit but that might not happen and could get time this season already.

Kyle loves his new toys. I cant imagine you spend a ton of draft capital on a guy to be the centerpiece of your offense and then you sit him on the bench for a whole season. Kyle gets very fixated on certain things sometimes, its why we gave up so much to move up. Kyle had to have Lance. Kyle will play Lance. 

Kyle's offense has more than its fair share of struggles in the redzone. We tend to have smaller linemen who have issues in short yardage situations. The best RZ offense kyle ever had was RG3s rookie season. Lance's rushing ability will unlock so much in that part of the field. We also drafted some absolute units to play G for us. I think the idea was to pound the ball into the endzone. 

I expect lance to vulture a ton of rushing touchdowns this year and for his playing time to steadily increase as the weeks go on. 

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On 5/5/2021 at 6:50 AM, VanS said:

But remember, I was the guy on this site telling everyone for years that Josh Allen was not inaccurate.  That all he needed was a better supporting cast and he would put up monster passing numbers because I saw the insane talent he possessed.  All I'm saying is I see something similar in Trey Lance.  I disagree with your assumption he has accuracy issues just as I never bought into the myth Josh Allen had accuracy issues.

Trey Lance oozes the same superstar ability Josh Allen possesed.

Okay, but just because you win the lottery doesn't mean you have the Midas Touch. :)

We'll see what happens in regards to Trey. 

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5 hours ago, Ozzy said:

If Lance played a full season this year at NDSU and there was no pandemic, it would not even be a conversation if he is a great QB prospect or not.  So yeah things change, maybe even the Jets might be looking back one day and saying hey, we should have taken Trey Lance.   

He was awful in the one game he did play.  I don't think it is a guarantee how he is perceived would have changed much.  

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8 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

He was awful in the one game he did play.  I don't think it is a guarantee how he is perceived would have changed much.  

Played bad early but he battled the whole time and stuck with it. A bad performance doesnt mean you are a bad player, or that what you did previously is invalid. Its how you handle it when it goes bad. The dude rallied, got better as the game went on, and made enough plays to win the game. 

correct me if I am wrong, but didnt they only practice for like 10 days or something? I think they only played one game so that guys would qualify for scholarships, right? Weird situation where they knew it was their only game of the season no matter what happened. 

The perception would have changed based on how he played. I think its fair to say there are a lot of question marks surrounding his situation right now. Maybe we would have gotten the answers to them last year, but I think @Ozzys point was that if Lance would have followed up the performance of 2019 with another similar one in 2020, he may have gotten drafted #2 overall to the Jets and the 49ers would have not had a chance to go get him. 

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50 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

He was awful in the one game he did play.  I don't think it is a guarantee how he is perceived would have changed much.  

Definitely not a guarantee one way or the other. I would be surprised if it looked worse over a whole season just because I think NDSU likely would have been so much better than their competition with Lance again (you can make the argument that the gap in talent between NDSU with Lance and that league is bigger than Alabama and everyone else), but that's not really a compliment on Lance and just more a statement of the situation. I really wish he had transferred so we got to see more

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Nobody should be taking anything from a single exhibition game that means nothing. That would be like TL struggling in week one of the preseason and everyone freaking out. 

But that 2019 film shows warts and truthfully nobody has any real idea on where he's at now. There were great things in 2019, but he also missed waaaaaaay too many easy throws. Maybe it's a byproduct of being 19 and will get ironed out. At 19, Justin Fields was watching Jake Fromm play. But not playing certainly isn't going to help, so you really have to go out on faith that he improved some of that stuff on his own. 

I'd much rather shoot my shot on Lance than draft Mac there, but he's scary as hell. He's a far way off, and he's the outlier of all outliers. There's legitimately never been a prospect like this. At least cam played in the sec. 

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5 hours ago, iknowcool said:

He was awful in the one game he did play.  I don't think it is a guarantee how he is perceived would have changed much.  

Awful?  Ok Watson a very good receiver for NDSU dropped two possibly three balls in that game and one could have been a 55 yard TD pass that was right on the money by Lance.  Sure he had that one INT but the entire game was odd.  What play this game for the three pro prospects in Trey Lance, Radunz and Rochell on Central Arkasnas because they are not going to be your teammates this season and are going out for the draft before the spring season?  It was just an odd game and in such a team sport was strange and sure those top prospects felt odd, especially Trey Lance who was the center of it all.  

 

Granted his footwork and mechanics greatly improved after that game and were a bit better in the game than the previous season, you can almost see that with his improved footwork he is still figuring how how to control the ball better with this new found power he has with the improved throwing base and mechanics.

Sure a lot of it was done with his legs but that Central Arkansas defensive unit is not bad and have a few pro prospects on it, Rochell obviously who could be a fine corner in the NFL and was a 4th round draft pick by the Rams and looks like they might have a few others who could be in the NFL one day also.  

Yes that pro day he was more than impressive with how he looked physically and how he threw the football.   But it is not like he was terrible on the field either obviously and again if he played this year and there was no pandemic, probably would not even be a question who the #2 or #3 QB in the 2021 draft is, most likely he would have overtaken Zach Wilson easily if allowed to play all season long and be the clear #2 guy right there with Justin Fields.  

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