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Trey Lance might be the best QB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft...


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On 5/4/2021 at 4:56 PM, malibuspeedrace said:

We also will forever remember you were the guy riding Josh dobbs....

there is a track record of garbage hot takes for the sake of hot takes

Yep ignoring the inaccuracies and only bringing up a “hit” to support why people should listen to you is children’s drivel. But I sure do enjoy it.

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7 hours ago, N4L said:

Played bad early but he battled the whole time and stuck with it. A bad performance doesnt mean you are a bad player, or that what you did previously is invalid. Its how you handle it when it goes bad. The dude rallied, got better as the game went on, and made enough plays to win the game. 

correct me if I am wrong, but didnt they only practice for like 10 days or something? I think they only played one game so that guys would qualify for scholarships, right? Weird situation where they knew it was their only game of the season no matter what happened. 

The perception would have changed based on how he played. I think its fair to say there are a lot of question marks surrounding his situation right now. Maybe we would have gotten the answers to them last year, but I think @Ozzys point was that if Lance would have followed up the performance of 2019 with another similar one in 2020, he may have gotten drafted #2 overall to the Jets and the 49ers would have not had a chance to go get him. 

I'm not saying one game makes someone a bad player.  But he was bad.  There are no ifs ands or buts about it.  And I think it's silly to put more stock in a pro day and use that as evidence he would have absolutely increased his stock had he played, than in the one game he actually did play.  

 

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On 5/4/2021 at 6:50 PM, VanS said:

But remember, I was the guy on this site telling everyone for years that Josh Allen was not inaccurate.  That all he needed was a better supporting cast and he would put up monster passing numbers because I saw the insane talent he possessed.

This just isn’t true at all, no matter how many times you say it to try and toot your own horn. Allen had documented accuracy issues his rookie year. It was very noticeable when watching him. 

There’s nothing about the 2nd half of this video (below) that has to do with his lack of quality receivers. He’s just flat out missing throws he should make. His ball placement has gotten significantly better since. It’s a rare case because you don’t see that kind of growth with accuracy often. 
 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

I believe he will benefit from sitting and learning more than "throwing him into the fire". Watch Jimmy G and learn from his mistakes. 

😎

Yes, I am serious.

I agree for two reasons:

1) Sitting would probably be good for a prospect as raw as Lance.

2) People tend to forget that the 49ers win a large percentage of their games when Jimmy G is behind center.  He hasn't been a bad QB for them.  His problem is that he hasn't been able to stay healthy and that's why they found a replacement. 

If he can stay healthy, I wouldn't be surprised if he led them on a deep playoff run this year.

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On 5/6/2021 at 1:23 AM, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Okay, but just because you win the lottery doesn't mean you have the Midas Touch. :)

We'll see what happens in regards to Trey. 

Good post.  Exactly how I think.  We'll let the future decide who is ultimately right. 

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11 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

This just isn’t true at all, no matter how many times you say it to try and toot your own horn. Allen had documented accuracy issues his rookie year. It was very noticeable when watching him. 

There’s nothing about the 2nd half of this video (below) that has to do with his lack of quality receivers. He’s just flat out missing throws he should make. His ball placement has gotten significantly better since. It’s a rare case because you don’t see that kind of growth with accuracy often. 
 

 

 

I could put together a similar lowlights video of Patrick Mahomes missing wide open receivers badly or throwing passes right to defenders only for them to drop sure INTs.  Just last year Mahomes led the league in dropped INTs.  Just because a QB misses passes here or there doesn't make him inaccurate.  Even this past year as a leading MVP candidate Allen had some bad throws.

The difference a better supporting cast makes is they provide the QB more easy throws and looks.  This means less superhero plays from Josh and thus an improvement in his efficiency metrics.  I think the problem stat nerds like you have is you can't separate numbers from the game.  Going back to Mahomes, his stats last year looked amazing but if you watched him closely you would see he was not playing as good as the numbers suggested and it ultimately caught up with him in the Super Bowl.  What I've been saying since Day 1 is Josh Allen's play has been way better than the numbers suggested.  And to prove my point I predicted he would see a huge jump in his production once the Bills got him some help.  Enter Stefon Diggs and Allen suddenly turns into an MVP candidate.  I'll ask you the same question I asked last summer before Josh's breakout season to folks who doubted his accuracy:  If Allen turns into an MVP caliber QB, did he suddenly learn how to be an accurate passer in one off-season OR was he always a better passer than the numbers suggested and all that happened is the stat sheet now reflects the talent he always had?

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5 hours ago, VanS said:

The difference a better supporting cast makes is they provide the QB more easy throws and looks.  This means less superhero plays from Josh and thus an improvement in his efficiency metrics.

Except he was missing open receivers,  not receivers who were lacking quality and draped in coverage. So this argument about easier throws to better receivers has no merit here. The receivers, regardless of talent, are open. Hit them.

I’ve had this argument with you before. In 2020 you would point out how well Allen was doing with a below average receiving core, and I would point out, while the quality of receivers isn’t great, guys (like Beasley) are being schemed open consistently. Daboll has been fantastic schematically in recent years. Allen is orchestrating a very creative, efficient offensive game plan. And this isn’t to take away from Allen himself, he’s been great as well. But we need to let this narrative die. It’s not like McCarthy’s final season in Green Bay when the offense was completely flat because his offense was dependent on his low quality receivers winning 1 on 1’s, which made Rodgers look completely underwhelming. Quite the opposite, actually. 

5 hours ago, VanS said:

I think the problem stat nerds like you have is you can't separate numbers from the game. 

When did I reference stats once? There’s no need for the labelling. I’m a game film guy through and through. 

5 hours ago, VanS said:

Going back to Mahomes, his stats last year looked amazing but if you watched him closely you would see he was not playing as good as the numbers suggested and it ultimately caught up with him in the Super Bowl. 

You mean the Super Bowl with a slew of back up lineman against the leagues best defense? Alright.

5 hours ago, VanS said:

What I've been saying since Day 1 is Josh Allen's play has been way better than the numbers suggested.  And to prove my point I predicted he would see a huge jump in his production once the Bills got him some help.  Enter Stefon Diggs and Allen suddenly turns into an MVP candidate

A QB’s production increases with a better supporting cast? You don’t say.

5 hours ago, VanS said:

I'll ask you the same question I asked last summer before Josh's breakout season to folks who doubted his accuracy:  If Allen turns into an MVP caliber QB, did he suddenly learn how to be an accurate passer in one off-season OR was he always a better passer than the numbers suggested and all that happened is the stat sheet now reflects the talent he always had?

Truthfully, the former - he has improved his accuracy significantly from year to year, especially his deep ball. And it didn’t happen in one offseason, either. I’ll admit it’s truly remarkable and somewhat mystifying because you really don’t see a stark improvement like that often. If you don’t believe me, take it from the horse’s mouth. Allen himself noted drastic improvement in his mechanics on The Pat McAfee show:

Quote

One component of his work with Palmer was having his mechanics digitally mapped, a process that allowed Allen to better understand how throwing motion correlates to accuracy and power. As he explained early last month while appearing on "The Pat McAfee Show," the mapping showed “what was firing … (it is supposed to be) my hips, then my torso, then your elbow and your hand firing. But my hand and elbow were firing near before my hips were. I wasn’t really incorporating any part of my legs in my motion.”

“Being able to add my hips and make that as consistent as possible and try to slow everything else down up top and use my hand as the leverage for the speed and the accuracy has changed a lot of things,” Allen said. “The accuracy has gone up, but it’s actually added some mph to my throwing power, too. It’s been a pretty cool process. … It was like a wake-up call. It was like, ‘OK, maybe I should try to incorporate a few clubs into my bag and try to hit that 60 degrees.’ It’s funny that I use golf as that metaphor because I’ve actually learned a lot of my throwing from my swing in golf.”

 
I’m sure you’ll come back with, “Of course he’s going to say that. He’s not going to throw his lack of receiving core under the bus”. 
 
What’s funny to me is that you’re basically discrediting all the hard work your golden boy prospect Allen put in to becoming the QB he is today. Instead of seeing his development for what it is and giving kudos to the kid, you’re basically saying “Nah, it’s on me. It’s not that Allen improved, I was just right all along”. Give me a break.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/buffalonews.com/sports/bills/putting-in-the-work-how-bills-josh-allen-improved-his-accuracy/article_f8cf5342-4e39-11eb-989a-87ebd03a4df4.amp.html

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Truthfully, the former - he has improved his accuracy significantly from year to year, especially his deep ball. And it didn’t happen in one offseason, either. I’ll admit it’s truly remarkable and somewhat mystifying because you really don’t see a stark improvement like that often. If you don’t believe me, take it from the horse’s mouth. Allen himself noted drastic improvement in his mechanics on The Pat McAfee show:

 
I’m sure you’ll come back with, “Of course he’s going to say that. He’s not going to throw his lack of receiving core under the bus”. 
 
What’s funny to me is that you’re basically discrediting all the hard work your golden boy prospect Allen put in to becoming the QB he is today. Instead of seeing his development for what it is and giving kudos to the kid, you’re basically saying “Nah, it’s on me. It’s not that Allen improved, I was just right all along”. Give me a break.

 

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/buffalonews.com/sports/bills/putting-in-the-work-how-bills-josh-allen-improved-his-accuracy/article_f8cf5342-4e39-11eb-989a-87ebd03a4df4.amp.html

First of all, I'm not discrediting his work ethic.  Before the 2018 draft I cited his work ethic and competitiveness as two intangibles that made me confident he would continue to improve as a player.  I never said Allen was a finished product coming out of Wyoming nor have I said he hasn't been continually improving.  My only disagreement has been with folks who try to say he was not good his first two years and then made some meteoric rise last season.  Same thing with Lamar Jackson in 2019 versus 2018.  Lamar Jackson didn't go from a guy who could not throw to the unanimous MVP in one off-season.  The skill set from him to be that elite was always there.  He just needed that one year of experience before we got to see his talent fully blossom.

Josh Allen did not make as big of an improvement in his ability to play football as the stats suggest.  If you gave him Stefon Diggs and that improved line in 2019, he puts up similar numbers to what we saw in 2020.

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On 5/6/2021 at 3:29 PM, SmittyBacall said:

This just isn’t true at all, no matter how many times you say it to try and toot your own horn. Allen had documented accuracy issues his rookie year. It was very noticeable when watching him. 

There’s nothing about the 2nd half of this video (below) that has to do with his lack of quality receivers. He’s just flat out missing throws he should make. His ball placement has gotten significantly better since. It’s a rare case because you don’t see that kind of growth with accuracy often. 

 

I'm so glad I'm not the only one who sees this. Dude improved a ton from year two to three and people cite Diggs and sure he helped but Allen made a lot of progress with his ball placement. 

I have this debate with people who blame Darnold throwing picks and being inaccurate on his receivers or lack of them all the time. I dont care who you're throwing to, if they're open you shouldn't be missing them. I dont care if its a first round pick or an undrafted free agent. 

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On 5/6/2021 at 9:13 AM, Chrissooner49er said:

I believe he will benefit from sitting and learning more than "throwing him into the fire". Watch Jimmy G and learn from his mistakes. 

😎

Yes, I am serious.

I'll be curious to see if that happens. Right now if the over/under on Lance starts was 10.5, I think I'd take the over. Lot of time for that to change, and he could look flat miserable in practice / off season which forces him to sit, but I think if he just looks mostly competent, he's going to get his run this year

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On 5/6/2021 at 1:25 PM, Uncle Buck said:

I agree for two reasons:

1) Sitting would probably be good for a prospect as raw as Lance.

2) People tend to forget that the 49ers win a large percentage of their games when Jimmy G is behind center.  He hasn't been a bad QB for them.  His problem is that he hasn't been able to stay healthy and that's why they found a replacement. 

If he can stay healthy, I wouldn't be surprised if he led them on a deep playoff run this year.

The problem is that the stuff that's raw in lance's game is only remedied through playing and experience.  This is a guy who already understands the whiteboard / verbiage / non game mental aspect of the position. He can run an offense in that manner. He needs reps and he needs throws especially with the speed difference. He's raw in terms of actually playing and what to do in game. I don't know what sitting does for him in that case. 

The tricky part is doing that as early as possible without instilling negative habits. That's going to be something that's on shanny to determine. He's going to have to know quickly what he needs to get Lance away from. 

From a team standpoint, I think it's a hard sell to guys who are on a one year deal that you brought back on the basis of contending, but ultimately the premise would be that the staff felt Lance was just better. Whether the players believe that is another story

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On 5/8/2021 at 6:58 PM, Forge said:

The problem is that the stuff that's raw in lance's game is only remedied through playing and experience.  This is a guy who already understands the whiteboard / verbiage / non game mental aspect of the position. He can run an offense in that manner. He needs reps and he needs throws especially with the speed difference. He's raw in terms of actually playing and what to do in game. I don't know what sitting does for him in that case. 

The tricky part is doing that as early as possible without instilling negative habits. That's going to be something that's on shanny to determine. He's going to have to know quickly what he needs to get Lance away from. 

From a team standpoint, I think it's a hard sell to guys who are on a one year deal that you brought back on the basis of contending, but ultimately the premise would be that the staff felt Lance was just better. Whether the players believe that is another story

I think I'd still start Jimmy G. for now.  The win/loss rate of the Niners when he plays is amazing.  About the only reason I wouldn't go with Jimmy is if I felt that he was holding the team back when he was in the game.  Chances are, if you start the year with him, he probably won't finish the year anyway, based on past performance.  If he can stay healthy and win games, awesome.  Let him play.  If he gets a hangnail, it's Lance time!

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Might work well to start Jimmy G and if they get really lucky a team will lose a qb to injury and trade for Jimmy G about the time Lance is ready to get his feet wet.

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