Trey Lance might be the best QB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft...

[Klomp]

12 hours ago, VanS said:

I guess I just focus on different things than most when it comes to evaluating a prospect.  I don't really focus on what a prospect does against an opponent.  I only focus on the prospect and his skill set.  For a QB, its his size, athleticism, arm strength, and ability to make NFL caliber throws on a consistent basis.  With RBs, its size, build, explosiveness, vision, balance, ability to make people miss and break tackles.  And so on with each position.

The end result of what they do against the opponent rarely matters to me.  Its how I came away being impressed with Josh Allen in 2018 after watching his game against Iowa where he put up lousy numbers and everyone was trying to use as evidence he was overrated and a surefire bust.  I looked at the same tape and was blown away by his size, arm strength, athleticism, amd playmaking ability.  The fact he didn't have success on the stat sheet against a superior opponent meant little to me.  I watched his o-line get whipped every play and his receivers getting zero separation causing him to have to take risks just to make first downs.  The level of competition didn't matter to my evaluation.  All I needed to see was what Josh Allen could do physically.  The fact he played well or bad that day meant nothing. 

I would agree with this. When I'm looking at prospects, it's largely about a player's physical tools more than looking at results. I'm not even talking about running past slower opponents because that too tends to be results-based and opponent-based, but more about someone's fluidity of movement or their throwing motion or ability to high-point the ball.

The fact that someone tried to equate Lance with J'Bore Gibbs as a prospect is asinine to me, as someone who's actually watched both players. Gibbs doesn't have NFL traits as a QB like Lance does, no matter what the stats tell you.

[BroncosFan2010]

What does he do better than Hurts, who is the guy he actually should be hoping to emulate rather than the generational QB prospect. 

[VanS]

18 hours ago, Elky said:

Donovan McNabb was ******* terrible.

Are you super young or were you in a coma during the early 2000s?

Donovan McNabb was a perennial MVP candidate for a number of years in the early 2000s.  He had the Eagles in the playoffs every year during that stretch.  And he was commonly discussed as one of the best QBs in the NFL at that time.  

Donovan McNabb was not terrible.  He was a great QB in his prime. 

[VanS]

18 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

So again with DII and even DIII - you don’t view the lower level of competition as a challenge at all in regards? 

“Ability to make people miss and break tackles”, very environment dependent. Maybe the guy runs through Alabama and only ever has to make cuts when he’s only got one man to beat (Richardson), or maybe his CFB explosiveness doesn’t translate to NFL explosiveness (Michel). Reggie Bush has a skill set any RB would die for - didn’t translate. There’s a litany of examples of this, and you know that. Especially at QB, where coaching, scheme, and talent around him can greatly influence how he works as a pro. 

And Josh Allen isn’t really someone to write home about. He’s still not a great passer at this point (but improving). 

Josh Allen is currently the 2nd best QB from the 2018 draft ahead of Sam Darnold (who everyone loved) and Baker Mayfield (who was the first overall pick).  Considering how many people had him pegged as a bust I would say he is doing very well in the NFL.

With that said, I only cited him to show that I rarely care about who the opponent is.  I'm only focused on the prospect.  The example you gave about playing against Alabama vs a Division 2 team only matters if you give a player's production any weight when evaluating them.  I don't.  The fact a guy will rip off a 80 yard run against one team but only 5 yards against another with the same blocking means little to me.  At the end of the day explosiveness is explosiveness.  If a RB is elite you will see those traits regardless of the opponent.  You're focused on the opponent because like most people you weigh college production heavily when evaluating a prospect.  Like I said earlier, I give production zero weight.  Its why I had Joe Burrow rated the same in 2018 and 2019.  His incredible 2019 season didn't make him any better as a prospect to me.

[VanS]

5 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

What does he do better than Hurts, who is the guy he actually should be hoping to emulate rather than the generational QB prospect. 

If you can't see this guy is way better than Hurts then I can't help you.  To me you're talking about a totally different level of player throwing the ball.  Go watch some tape of Hurts as a freshmen and sophomore.  Then watch some Trey Lance as a redshirt freshmen and tell me they are comprable as passers. 

[Soko]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

Josh Allen is currently the 2nd best QB from the 2018 draft ahead of Sam Darnold (who everyone loved) and Baker Mayfield (who was the first overall pick).  Considering how many people had him pegged as a bust I would say he is doing very well in the NFL.

That is more about how Sam and Baker have underwhelmed than it is Allen excelling as a QB. Ranking =/= quality. Melvin Gordon is a high ranking RB if you compare him to mediocre guys. 

1 hour ago, VanS said:

With that said, I only cited him to show that I rarely care about who the opponent is.  I'm only focused on the prospect.  The example you gave about playing against Alabama vs a Division 2 team only matters if you give a player's production any weight when evaluating them.  I don't.  The fact a guy will rip off a 80 yard run against one team but only 5 yards against another with the same blocking means little to me.  At the end of the day explosiveness is explosiveness.  If a RB is elite you will see those traits regardless of the opponent.  You're focused on the opponent because like most people you weigh college production heavily when evaluating a prospect.  Like I said earlier, I give production zero weight.  Its why I had Joe Burrow rated the same in 2018 and 2019.  His incredible 2019 season didn't make him any better as a prospect to me.

I specifically said “not just production”. It’s easier to show elusiveness against players that suck at tackling. It’s easier to overpower guys that are 30lbs smaller than the competition. It’s easier to get open as a receiver against corners that can’t cover. It’s easier as a QB to progress through reads and make compact throws when no one is in your face and your coach can run circles around the other guy’s. It’s not just about traits, but again, I’m sure you’ll ignore what I said and just say “tools>production”.

[KingOfNewYork]

Good old prospect fatigue will follow Lawrence all year I see. 

[VanS]

4 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

That is more about how Sam and Baker have underwhelmed than it is Allen excelling as a QB. Ranking =/= quality. Melvin Gordon is a high ranking RB if you compare him to mediocre guys. 

I specifically said “not just production”. It’s easier to show elusiveness against players that suck at tackling. It’s easier to overpower guys that are 30lbs smaller than the competition. It’s easier to get open as a receiver against corners that can’t cover. It’s easier as a QB to progress through reads and make compact throws when no one is in your face and your coach can run circles around the other guy’s. It’s not just about traits, but again, I’m sure you’ll ignore what I said and just say “tools>production”.

With regard to Josh Allen, I believe he's excelling.  He had a stretch there in the middle of last year where he was second to Lamar Jackson among all QBs in combined passing and rushing TDs.  He also led his team to the playoffs.  Even if you don't think he's a great young QB, I think we can all agree he isn't the bust many tried to say he was while citing his play against "top competition".

With regard to your second point, you're making an assumption about whats top competition and what isn't.  Only a small percentage of college football players even at the top Power 5 schools make it to the NFL.  And when they get to the NFL we see lots of busts come from top schools and lots of stars come from small schools.  I just don't think the gap between the average non-NFL college player at an average Power Five school is that big compared to an average Group of 5 school.  Look no further than the fact we see Group of 5 teams routinely beat Power 5 schools every year during the opening week.  I didn't need to see Saquon Barkley juking USC defenders to know he was great.  I could tell he was a Hall of Fame caliber talent against Group of 5 teams.

[Elky]

9 hours ago, VanS said:

Are you super young or were you in a coma during the early 2000s?

Donovan McNabb was a perennial MVP candidate for a number of years in the early 2000s.  He had the Eagles in the playoffs every year during that stretch.  And he was commonly discussed as one of the best QBs in the NFL at that time.  

Donovan McNabb was not terrible.  He was a great QB in his prime. 

Maybe from 98-04 (though Jim Johnson's defense deserves more credit), but McNabb was easily Philly's biggest liability after his SB appearance.

[VanS]

1 minute ago, Elky said:

Maybe from 98-04 (though Jim Johnson's defense deserves more credit), but McNabb was easily Philly's biggest liability after his SB appearance.

Maybe after 2004.  But at his peak he was spectacular.  One of the best QBs from my childhood.  In the early 2000s he was sort of the golden boy for the NFL.  Remember all those Chunky Soup commercials? 

[THE DUKE]

Since when is Josh Allen some great bar of talent to reach?  He was dead last in completion percentage in 2019 amongst qualifiers, 26th in yards per attempt, 24th in passer rating, 30th in yards per game, 23rd in touchdown passes.  The best thing you can say about him last year was that he was middle of the pack in interceptions (15th) and yards per completion (15th).  Statistically, Gardner Minishew was better in about every quantifiable way in 2019.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm

[Elky]

43 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

Since when is Josh Allen some great bar of talent to reach?  He was dead last in completion percentage in 2019 amongst qualifiers, 26th in yards per attempt, 24th in passer rating, 30th in yards per game, 23rd in touchdown passes.  The best thing you can say about him last year was that he was middle of the pack in interceptions (15th) and yards per completion (15th).  Statistically, Gardner Minishew was better in about every quantifiable way in 2019.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm

Evaluation against competition is irrelevant as long as you can see it in his eyes.

[Johnny Nix]

On 5/3/2020 at 3:32 PM, VanS said:

My only concern with Trevor Lawrence are the intangibles.  Physically he might be close to the perfect QB.  But physical skill isn't sufficient to becoming an all-time great.  You also need elite intangibles. 

Oh you mean like Joe Burrow?

[Soko]

7 hours ago, VanS said:

He had a stretch there in the middle of last year where he was second to Lamar Jackson among all QBs in combined passing and rushing TDs. 

Has mediocre stats in college = 100% irrelevant, I only look at the player’s skills. 

Has mediocre stats in the NFL = Yeah but there was this short span where he was doing well, so he’s excelling. 

What a joke, though I should really only be kicking myself in the butt for even thinking a conversation could be had here.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Yin-Yang

[Daniel]

3 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

Since when is Josh Allen some great bar of talent to reach?  He was dead last in completion percentage in 2019 amongst qualifiers, 26th in yards per attempt, 24th in passer rating, 30th in yards per game, 23rd in touchdown passes.  The best thing you can say about him last year was that he was middle of the pack in interceptions (15th) and yards per completion (15th).  Statistically, Gardner Minishew was better in about every quantifiable way in 2019.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm

Right?  I am also struggling to see how Allen is a model of greatness.  The difference in his rating and Darnold's is literally one point.

I mean, first of all, it's laughable to think the 2018 QB class has arrived yet.  Remember last year, when Baker was gonna be DA BEST EVER!!  Then he had a sophomore slump.  Josh Allen could improve next year, or he might go back to sexy Rexy form and throw 20 interceptions downfield.  Lamar Jackson could suddenly struggle.  We really don't know, and that's how it's almost always been with QBs.

I thought Josh Allen would be a huge bust.  He still might be, and if I had to put money on it, I'd still say we won't see huge improvement from him in year 3.

But this whole thread is laughable anyway.  Level of competition matters if for no other reason than the learning curve.  If you're talking an average group of five school, they might have one player each that even gets drafted.  The average on Power five schools, I'd wager, is way higher, and concentrated even more in the powerhouse teams.  That's going to be even more extreme compared to FCS teams.

Just look at Jordan Love as an example: vs the three Power 5 schools he played (I'm counting BYU, which isn't a powerhouse), he threw 4 TDs to 9 INTs.  Against everyone else, he threw 16 TDs and 8 INTs.  And two of the Power 5 schools there are Wake Forest and BYU.

This and the other thread are both just people posting these to buck the trend.  Lance had a ridiculous statistical season, and he looks like he might be legit.  But there's a huge difference between 0 INTs against FCS teams and against even Group of Five teams.