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Trey Lance might be the best QB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft...


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Carson Wentz started for 1.5 years against the same "inferior competition" and was drafted No. 2 overall despite playing just 1 FCS opponent (2014 Iowa State, 2-10) in his career. Not sure why folks think it's crazy idea that Lance could be rated highly.....

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3 hours ago, Klomp said:

Carson Wentz started for 1.5 years against the same "inferior competition" and was drafted No. 2 overall despite playing just 1 FCS opponent (2014 Iowa State, 2-10) in his career. Not sure why folks think it's crazy idea that Lance could be rated highly.....

Nobody is saying that, from what I'm seeing. Everyone is saying that that Trevor Lawrence is a better prospect.

Lance could go #2. I highly doubt he goes #1.

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Somehow saying Trey Lance isn't clearly better than what has been viewed as a generational QB prospect for the past 18 months in Trevor Lawrence has been misconstrued as Trey Lance has no chance to be a high draft pick or succeed in the NFL.  Trey Lance has a lot of promise, but to say there aren't legitimate questions is disingenuous.

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1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

Trey Lance has a lot of promise, but to say there aren't legitimate questions is disingenuous.

It's not even that - this is Trevor Lawrence we're talking about here. He's going #1 ahead of every QB over the past two drafts (maybe even three drafts). 

- People loved Jim Kelly as a prospect, nobody was picking him ahead of John Elway. 

- People loved Ryan Leaf as a prospect, nobody was picking him over Peyton Manning.

- People loved Robert Griffin III as a prospect, nobody was picking him over Andrew Luck.

People may love Trey Lance. He's not going ahead of Trevor Lawrence.

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The only things I look at for a college QB is Accuracy, Decision making and arm strength. 

  • Windows to make throws are much smaller in the NFL than in college.  Players who are not accurate will struggle.
  • Because windows are smaller, you must be able to make the throw with some zip.  Back shoulder outs are more important than how far a player can throw the ball.
  • Can the QB make quick, correct decisions?  This is the biggest hurtle for most college QBs.  Many are in one read offenses.

Players that can do all 3 are really good. Brees, Payton Manning, Wilson, Rodgers and Brady are quick examples.  Most people just focus on arm strength but without the other two in some level you get Jeff George.

 

Ben Roethlisberger played in the MAC conference and rarely played top level competition.   He overcame spread offense/one read to be come a better decision maker but it took time.  He had the arm strength and accuracy coming out of college.

Edited by jebrick
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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Nobody is saying that, from what I'm seeing. Everyone is saying that that Trevor Lawrence is a better prospect.

Lance could go #2. I highly doubt he goes #1.

 

1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

Somehow saying Trey Lance isn't clearly better than what has been viewed as a generational QB prospect for the past 18 months in Trevor Lawrence has been misconstrued as Trey Lance has no chance to be a high draft pick or succeed in the NFL.  Trey Lance has a lot of promise, but to say there aren't legitimate questions is disingenuous.

Yeah, I think I have to agree.  Lance can make a case to be taken ahead of Lawrence, but it's a tough pitch to see as even remotely likely, and he'd need a lot of help.  Like, he'd need to dominate in the game against Oregon, and Lawrence will have to stumble.  I mean, it took Burrow three quarters of the season to become the consensus top pick over Tua.  And he was playing in the SEC West, having one of the best college seasons by a player ever.

Overcoming Lawrence is a much more daunting task, as he's a much, much better prospect than Tua.  And Lance will be playing in a league that is orders of magnitude less talented than the SEC.  There's just too much ground to make up there without Lawrence having just a terrible season.

And Wentz is a good example to use.  He was great and still went No. 2 behind Jared Goff.  And Goff was not a strong prospect.

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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

It's not even that - this is Trevor Lawrence we're talking about here. He's going #1 ahead of every QB over the past two drafts (maybe even three drafts). 

- People loved Jim Kelly as a prospect, nobody was picking him ahead of John Elway. 

- People loved Ryan Leaf as a prospect, nobody was picking him over Peyton Manning.

- People loved Robert Griffin III as a prospect, nobody was picking him over Andrew Luck.

People may love Trey Lance. He's not going ahead of Trevor Lawrence.

I get that, and mostly agree with you (I'm no Lance stan), but didn't we feel that way about Tua last year? 

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3 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I get that, and mostly agree with you (I'm no Lance stan), but didn't we feel that way about Tua last year? 

No, not at all. I liked Tua, but felt he was a few classes below from Elway/Manning/Luck status. He was productive and successful in college, but had flaws and a injury history that would make you feel uncomfortable (which manifested itself).

You can look at past threads, I've been incredibly bullish on Trevor Lawrence - simply put, he's the greatest prospect I've seen (regardless of position) since Adrian Peterson in 2007. Any sort of flaw is either manufactured by somebody looking for a flaw, or superficial in that a single month with a QB coach can correct it.

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7 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I get that, and mostly agree with you (I'm no Lance stan), but didn't we feel that way about Tua last year? 

Nope.  Tua seemed like a standard No. 1 QB.  I don't remember anyone saying he was a special, generational talent.  And there's a big difference there.

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Tua always had question marks, even as the perceived top guy heading into the 2019 season.  He had an injury history, even BEFORE the massive hip injury that is uncommon in a 20-21 year old.  He's on the shorter side, which isn't as big a red flag as NLF teams used to have it, but still noteworthy.  Arm wasn't a minus, but it certainly wasn't an arm like Lawrence or Herbert.  Don't get me wrong, Tua is still a great prospect, but I never saw him as a generational talent.

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51 minutes ago, ET80 said:

No, not at all. I liked Tua, but felt he was a few classes below from Elway/Manning/Luck status. He was productive and successful in college, but had flaws and a injury history that would make you feel uncomfortable (which manifested itself).

You can look at past threads, I've been incredibly bullish on Trevor Lawrence - simply put, he's the greatest prospect I've seen (regardless of position) since Adrian Peterson in 2007. Any sort of flaw is either manufactured by somebody looking for a flaw, or superficial in that a single month with a QB coach can correct it.

 

51 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Nope.  Tua seemed like a standard No. 1 QB.  I don't remember anyone saying he was a special, generational talent.  And there's a big difference there.

Okay, sorry, I may have jumped the gun on my post with the perspective I was taking, but your points probably still stand either way. Most offseason of 2019 and into the season seemed to be Tank for Tua as - well as I saw it - most saw him as a probable #1 pick, but less about him being the generational talent. Your followups negate that train of thought as well though.

I see your points clearer now. 

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15 hours ago, Klomp said:

Carson Wentz started for 1.5 years against the same "inferior competition" and was drafted No. 2 overall despite playing just 1 FCS opponent (2014 Iowa State, 2-10) in his career. Not sure why folks think it's crazy idea that Lance could be rated highly.....

Carson Wentz is 6-5 237 and is quite athletic for his size, that is why, not to mention he was a SR that just lead his team to the National Title.  He made some flat out magical throws on that title run they had, freaking cannon for an arm and was not a run first QB Lance seems to be more at this point. 

 

No one is saying Trey Lance cannot become great, because he can and probably will.  I am saying why come out as a RS SOPH when he could just wait another year and come out as a RS JR and be better prepared for the NFL and probably would have graduated from college as well.   Could have been the defense they played but arguably was the best they played all season again JMU, and Trey Lance only threw for 72 yards on 6/10 throwing yet rushed for 166.  That is a little concerning, shows how good of an athlete he is but no way is he some Lamar Jackson type of athlete at the QB position anyway.  But with his solid fundamentals at QB, maybe it will not be an issue and he will continue to improve as a passer.  

PS he is rated highly because the QB class for 2021 and arguably 2022 is not very strong at all.  Not to mention his great season he had last year as a RS FR and most assume he will be better next year if there is a next year.  

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