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2021 Draft Talk


swede700

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3 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

Gimme the darts 

I think the Vikings could potentially do both.

Use one, or both, of their 3rd rounders to move up in the 1st and draft THE guy that they want. Then use a couple of the 4th round picks to trade down and gain more day 3 picks. 

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Just now, wcblack34 said:

Gimme the darts 

I'm actually the opposite.  I think Rick should go the '08/'09 route (more '09 tho than '08) with lesser picks and target them, using those numerous 3rds, 4ths, and 5ths to get the players they want in the first 2 rounds, since those are the players they are going to know more about.    He's made 27 picks over the last 2 drafts (and 46 over 4) and 23 of them are still on the team, so this is one of those years where he can afford to be more selective about who he adds, because the number of slots available on the team is going to be limited.

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25 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

Gimme the darts 

And while normally I would agree with you, if the Vikings are targeting the offensive line in the draft, they need to get aggressive and go after a blue chip prospect. Because going after the “value” players hasn’t worked out the greatest for them. 

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8 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

And while normally I would agree with you, if the Vikings are targeting the offensive line in the draft, they need to get aggressive and go after a blue chip prospect. Because going after the “value” players hasn’t worked out the greatest for them. 

That has clearly been the case, but I think Rick realized that 3 years ago, because they've picked OL in the first 2 rounds 3 years in a row...and this could be 4.  No one should complain any longer that he hasn't invested in the line like they did when he was drafting them in the 4th rd and later.  Now whether they have ended up working out is a whole other question, but I'd like to think that this year will tell us a lot, because they'll now have had the same OL coach for the 3rd year in a row, something that we haven't able to say since Davidson was the OL coach.  

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9 minutes ago, swede700 said:

but I think Rick realized that 3 years ago, because they've picked OL in the first 2 rounds 3 years in a row...and this could be 4.

But they’ve still just let the board fall the way it was going to and they selected the linemen who presented the best value. Not a poor strategy in the slightest, but a strategy that still hasn’t gotten the necessary results. 

Last year, per multiple reports, we saw the team try to trade up and go after Tristan Wirfs. It didn’t happen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Vikings try to do it again, but this time for Slater.

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1 hour ago, swede700 said:

I'm actually the opposite.  I think Rick should go the '08/'09 route (more '09 tho than '08) with lesser picks and target them, using those numerous 3rds, 4ths, and 5ths to get the players they want in the first 2 rounds, since those are the players they are going to know more about.    He's made 27 picks over the last 2 drafts (and 46 over 4) and 23 of them are still on the team, so this is one of those years where he can afford to be more selective about who he adds, because the number of slots available on the team is going to be limited.

In my opinion, this is going to be the biggest crapshoot of a draft in the past 2-3 decades. You have guys who are projected as Top 5-15 picks who haven't played a snap in well over a year. You have small school guys who didn't get to move up draft boards because of no combine, lack of all-star games, and no in person chats. You have other guys who looked good in limited action. You have pro-day numbers that are almost certainly inflated. 

To me, if there's a year to have a lot of arrows in the quiver, I think it is this year. Take chances on a lot of the small-school and workout warriors. After reflection, I'd have a tough time giving up a lot to trade for Sewell, just based on the fact that he hasn't played in so long. How often have we seen Sophomores have amazing years only to plateau or drop off the next? How often have we seen juniors or seniors come out of nowhere to fly up draft boards? 

I understand how it cuts both ways. I understand how some may want one or two guys we feel confident about. However, I'm a bit weary about trading a lot of assets to get up to where Sewell and Slater are likely to go. Neither played this year. Sure they looked great when they did play, but we have seen guys nosedive from one season to the next. 

With our mediocre returns on recent first round offensive line picks, I'd be hesitant to trust the staff spending a lot of picks to move up this year. I think value, recent game tape, and drafting multiple players to compete in camp is the way to go. 

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19 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

In my opinion, this is going to be the biggest crapshoot of a draft in the past 2-3 decades. You have guys who are projected as Top 5-15 picks who haven't played a snap in well over a year. You have small school guys who didn't get to move up draft boards because of no combine, lack of all-star games, and no in person chats. You have other guys who looked good in limited action. You have pro-day numbers that are almost certainly inflated. 

To me, if there's a year to have a lot of arrows in the quiver, I think it is this year. Take chances on a lot of the small-school and workout warriors. After reflection, I'd have a tough time giving up a lot to trade for Sewell, just based on the fact that he hasn't played in so long. How often have we seen Sophomores have amazing years only to plateau or drop off the next? How often have we seen juniors or seniors come out of nowhere to fly up draft boards? 

I understand how it cuts both ways. I understand how some may want one or two guys we feel confident about. However, I'm a bit weary about trading a lot of assets to get up to where Sewell and Slater are likely to go. Neither played this year. Sure they looked great when they did play, but we have seen guys nosedive from one season to the next. 

With our mediocre returns on recent first round offensive line picks, I'd be hesitant to trust the staff spending a lot of picks to move up this year. I think value, recent game tape, and drafting multiple players to compete in camp is the way to go. 

Fair enough...I just think when there is a bigger crapshoot, I want less chances to miss on them...I'd rather miss on 3 of 5 picks than 8 on 12.

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1 hour ago, swede700 said:

Fair enough...I just think when there is a bigger crapshoot, I want less chances to miss on them...I'd rather miss on 3 of 5 picks than 8 on 12.

Are you saying that you would rather hit on 2 picks than hit on 4? I ask because that doesn't make any sense to me but it seems to be what you are saying. What am I misunderstanding?

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Getting pumped for the draft - I'll be happy with a lot of different ways this draft can go. My only wishes are that Rick always drafts with value in mind and that the guys they draft are competitors that have their eyes on super bowl rings.

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35 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Are you saying that you would rather hit on 2 picks than hit on 4? I ask because that doesn't make any sense to me but it seems to be what you are saying. What am I misunderstanding?

My thought is that it's far likelier that the 2 they'd hit on out of 5 are going to be far better than the 4 out of 12 that they might get by trading down or standing pat.  It's the equivalent of getting Percy Harvin and Phil Loadholt over Bradbury, Smith, Mattison and Olabisi Johnson. 

Take it like this, in both cases, you're throwing darts blindfolded, but each time you trade back, it's the equivalent of taking a step back (because now you're more reliant on others picks, which adds difficulty to making the best pick for your team) and adding another dart, while trading up allows you to get closer to the dartboard, but you lose a dart.  While in most drafts, you just have the one blindfold, but in the 2021 draft, you get another blindfold added on top, along with a N-95 mask.  I'd rather get closer to the dartboard, because then I'm far more likely to be accurate with my darts...I may still miss, but, I give myself a better shot.  In the 12-dart scenario, I may hit on 4 (theoretically), but getting to 4 might just be pure dumb luck..it's probably more likely that I'll hit on less than 4 and even those 4 are going to more like Tyler Conklin, which is theoretically a hit, than it will be a Brian O'Neill.  This is a draft that's going to be far more random than usual, so I want to lessen my exposure to the randomness of this draft.  

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I don't think you necessarily give yourself a better shot. We are talking about quite a few first round picks this year who haven't played in over a year. That's no small thing. You can trade up for Sewell or Slater based on film from a couple of years ago, but a lot of guys have regressed or plateaued after a great Soph/Junior year. I think trading up, which would almost certainly involve trading assets from next year's likely "normal" draft, makes a miss more likely and a much bigger deal because it impacts you this year and next.

 

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7 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

I don't think you necessarily give yourself a better shot. We are talking about quite a few first round picks this year who haven't played in over a year. That's no small thing. You can trade up for Sewell or Slater based on film from a couple of years ago, but a lot of guys have regressed or plateaued after a great Soph/Junior year. I think trading up, which would almost certainly involve trading assets from next year's likely "normal" draft, makes a miss more likely and a much bigger deal because it impacts you this year and next.

 

I think I agree with you....which is the opposite of how I usually feel. Normally I don't like amassing a lot of late picks, I'd rather they trade up. But this year? I think we might look back on this as a more randomly distributed draft (esp the players that sat out). That said, if they do deal up for a TOP PLAYER, I likely won't be annoyed.

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5 minutes ago, wcblack34 said:

I don't think you necessarily give yourself a better shot. We are talking about quite a few first round picks this year who haven't played in over a year. That's no small thing. You can trade up for Sewell or Slater based on film from a couple of years ago, but a lot of guys have regressed or plateaued after a great Soph/Junior year. I think trading up, which would almost certainly involve trading assets from next year's likely "normal" draft, makes a miss more likely and a much bigger deal because it impacts you this year and next.

 

It depends upon how far you're talking about trading up.  I'm not talking about trading up into the top 5...they could go from 14 to 7 or 8 with just this year's picks if they chose to do so. And if they don't do it there, they can use those 3rd and 4ths to move up into the 2nd.

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In other words, I tend to agree with what the Seahawks have done this year, which is essentially punt on the draft by only having 3 picks.  Hell, if I were the Vikings, if I didn't use draft picks to trade up, I'd use draft picks to acquire picks for next year.  This is a draft where I want to lessen my exposure to the randomness.  If I want to have any randomness, I can wait and sign UDFAs.  I don't want to tie myself to as many players out of this draft as I normally do.

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