2021 Draft Talk

[RpMc]

Notable Names from Dane Brugler's Top 100 (via the Athletic)
 

First Round Players Rated Near Our Pick (#14)

#12 - Christian Darrisaw - T - Virginia Tech
#15 - Trey Lance - QB - NDSU
#17 - Alijah Vera-Tucker - G - USC
#18 - Christian Barmore - DT - Alabama
#19 - Kwity Paye - DE - Michigan
#21 - Jayson Oweh - DE - Penn State
#24 - Gregory Rousseau - DE - Miami
#26 - Jalen Mayfield - G - Michigan
#27 - Teven Jenkins - T - Oklahoma State

Third Round Players Rated Near Our Pick (#78)

#67 - Jackson Carman - G - Clemson
#69 - Jay Tufele - DT - USC
#70 - Tommy Togiai - DT - Ohio State
#71 - Dayo Odeyingbo - DE - Vanderbilt
#72 - Malon Tuipulotu - DT - USC
#73 - Hamsah Nasirildeen - S - Florida State
#74 - Creed Humphrey - C - Oklahoma
#77 - James Hudson - T - Cincinnati
#83 - Ambry Thomas - CB - Michigan
#85 - Kyle Trask - QB - Florida
#86 - Pete Werner - LB - Ohio State
#87 - Andre Cisco - S - Syracuse
#88 - Spencer Brown - T - Northern Iowa
#89 - Richie Grant - S - UCF
#97 - Akim McNeill - DT - NC State

[PrplChilPill]

If the Vikings pick a WR at 14, as some of you are saying you would, the OL will continue to be awful. The DL? They might have 2 starters next year, if both of their players that missed last year come back good......I can't believe anyone really thinks taking a first round WR over a player you believe is a legit starter on the OL is a good idea for the team. Should KC take a QB with their first pick, if he's the highest rated player on the board? Should Baltimore? How about Buffalo?

[SemperFeist]

2 hours ago, RpMc said:

#12 - Christian Darrisaw - T - Virginia Tech
#15 - Trey Lance - QB - NDSU

This would be a tough discussion for me. 

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

This would be a tough discussion for me. 

I would go with Darrisaw and I don't think it would be that hard of a decision.  I like Lance...but, in a perfect world, let's face it, he should be a 2nd rounder or even a 3rd.  Darrisaw is strong, athletic and great in space and would be great in the ZBS.  He would excel at tackle or Guard.

[Ozzy]

8 hours ago, Virginia Viking said:

I notice that none of the interior offensive linemen have any of your commentary next to their names?  Does that mean you think none of them are good for the Vikings, or that you believe the Vikings don't need interior linemen?

That has nothing to do with it, a few could be good for the Vikings, Dickerson, Humphrey and maybe Myers or Newman as a guard.  I never commented because nothing stood out or was surprising about the list, the comments were not specific to the Vikings were just general comments on the prospects selected.  And IOL is the Vikings #1 need actually in my opinion.  Pretty sad if the Vikings are in look for another center already but probably should be, not sure Bradbury is the guy long term with how he has played but maybe they still have faith in him.

 

[swede700]

 

[SemperFeist]

33 minutes ago, swede700 said:

 

Providing that Hunter comes back, I don’t see the team breaking their pattern of draft mid round defensive ends. 

[RpMc]

On the subject of Paye:

 

 

[Ozzy]

2 hours ago, RpMc said:

On the subject of Paye:

 

 

If he runs a 4.57 40 I would be shocked, that would be wildly impressive and would lock him into the 1st round.  I like him he is a solid player but he is a better run defender than pass rusher.  And if he is so athletic why does he only have 11.5 sacks in a four year college career on a blitz heavy defense that creates tons of one on one edge rush chances?  I guess this past year he only played 4 games so that has something to do with it and as a FR only played two.  

Still I would have thought if he is indeed that athletic why can he not get to the QB more?  

 

And to those that say Danielle Hunter did not have many sacks in college, that JR year Danielle Hunter was outstanding and had 73 tackles, 6 pass deflections, a forced fumble, a TD and 13 TFLs.  He should have been a 2nd round pick and I had him as one, especially after that great combine performance.  Paye never had over 50 tackles in any one season on Michigan.  

 

If Paye runs that well he will be on the board no question, I would rather have Barmore though honestly who fills a bigger need arguably.  

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Ozzy said:

If he runs a 4.57 40 I would be shocked, that would be wildly impressive and would lock him into the 1st round.  I like him he is a solid player but he is a better run defender than pass rusher.  And if he is so athletic why does he only have 11.5 sacks in a four year college career on a blitz heavy defense that creates tons of one on one edge rush chances?  I guess this past year he only played 4 games so that has something to do with it and as a FR only played two.  

Still I would have thought if he is indeed that athletic why can he not get to the QB more?  

Not sure I buy the 3-cone numbers for a second.  Going back to the 2019 NFL Combine numbers, only 2 DL posted sub-7.0 3-cone times with Maxx Crosby (6.89) and Anthony Nelson (6.95).  Other than that, the numbers are nearly identical to that of Rashan Gary.  As for production, that was a knock on Rashan Gary coming out of Michigan as well.  I haven't really watched much of Paye, but wouldn't surprise me if it was the Gary situation all over again.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Ozzy said:

And to those that say Danielle Hunter did not have many sacks in college, that JR year Danielle Hunter was outstanding and had 73 tackles, 6 pass deflections, a forced fumble, a TD and 13 TFLs.  He should have been a 2nd round pick and I had him as one, especially after that great combine performance.  Paye never had over 50 tackles in any one season on Michigan.  

I mean, if you extrapolate Kwity Paye's numbers over a full season (12 games) he's got 98 tackles, 24.5 TFL, and 12.5 sacks over the past two seasons (24 games in this scenario).  Comparatively, Danielle Hunter had 130 tackles, 21 TFL, and 4.5 sacks over his final two seasons (26 games).  I'd be leery about writing him off because of the lack of production.

[Ozzy]

5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, if you extrapolate Kwity Paye's numbers over a full season (12 games) he's got 98 tackles, 24.5 TFL, and 12.5 sacks over the past two seasons (24 games in this scenario).  Comparatively, Danielle Hunter had 130 tackles, 21 TFL, and 4.5 sacks over his final two seasons (26 games).  I'd be leery about writing him off because of the lack of production.

Sure but those two sacks this season came against a Minnesota team without Faalele and Dunlap on the OL, and was the first game of the season without any spring ball.  They made that Minnesota OL look awful and played their best game on the DL all season.  Minnesota is not that bad on the OL and Michigan was not that dominating on the DL. The rest of the games that DL did not look nearly as dominating as they did game one.  But yes against Minnesota, Paye looked like a 1st rounder no doubt about it.  Aidan Hutchinson also had a great game against Minnesota then fell off a cliff but also got hurt and missed a ton of action as well for Michigan.

Not sure I would call Paye Rashan Gary either, Gary was an amazing college player and had a great career.  Is also bigger and longer than Paye which helps.  No way Paye is on that same level as Gary in terms of what he is as a prospect, still kind of wish Gary played DT in a 4/3 but he has developed well as a OLB in a 3/4, not a great pass rusher in terms of moves but can really collapse the pocket and get pressure.  But sure ultimately the lack of production might not matter, just saying he never looked like a guy who runs a 4.57 40 time when watching him play.  

If he puts out those numbers though officially, he will be a 1st rounder in this some what weak DE class edge class.  

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Sure but those two sacks this season came against a Minnesota team without Faalele and Dunlap on the OL, and was the first game of the season without any spring ball.  They made that Minnesota OL look awful and played their best game on the DL all season.  Minnesota is not that bad on the OL and Michigan was not that dominating on the DL. The rest of the games that DL did not look nearly as dominating as they did game one.  But yes against Minnesota, Paye looked like a 1st rounder no doubt about it.  Aidan Hutchinson also had a great game against Minnesota then fell off a cliff but also got hurt and missed a ton of action as well for Michigan.

Not sure I would call Paye Rashan Gary either, Gary was an amazing college player and had a great career.  Is also bigger and longer than Paye which helps.  No way Paye is on that same level as Gary in terms of what he is as a prospect, still kind of wish Gary played DT in a 4/3 but he has developed well as a OLB in a 3/4, not a great pass rusher in terms of moves but can really collapse the pocket and get pressure.  But sure ultimately the lack of production might not matter, just saying he never looked like a guy who runs a 4.57 40 time when watching him play.  

If he puts out those numbers though officially, he will be a 1st rounder in this some what weak DE class edge class.  

All pass rushers are going to put up big numbers against good teams.  Plus, you can cherry pick numbers all day but that doesn't change facts.  If you go back and look at Danielle Hunter, all 6 of his PD came against Kentucky (3) and Alabama (3).  It really does no good to attempt to throw out numbers because you don't like them.

I'm not saying I'd call him Rashan Gary.  But calling Gary an amazing college player and having a great career, but blasting Paye for his lack of production is a bit two-sided.  Gary's production coming out of Michigan wasn't very good.  In fact, he was blasted as a looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane prospect.

[Ozzy]

6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

All pass rushers are going to put up big numbers against good teams.  Plus, you can cherry pick numbers all day but that doesn't change facts.  If you go back and look at Danielle Hunter, all 6 of his PD came against Kentucky (3) and Alabama (3).  It really does no good to attempt to throw out numbers because you don't like them.

I'm not saying I'd call him Rashan Gary.  But calling Gary an amazing college player and having a great career, but blasting Paye for his lack of production is a bit two-sided.  Gary's production coming out of Michigan wasn't very good.  In fact, he was blasted as a looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane prospect.

I assume you mean put up big numbers against bad teams...  Gary's upside is way higher than Paye I feel.  Sure he had issues in college but again give me Gary over Paye all day long in terms of overall upside and athletic ability.  

I had Danielle Hunter a 2nd round pick after his JR season and his workout, but clearly took it to another level in the NFL but he too has more upside and potential than Paye has physically but will see just how athletic Paye really is.  

 

Top 12 guys in the NFL in terms of sack this past year, and all outside two arguably were either very productive in college or showed big time athletic ability and potential to get after the passer.  Za'Darius Smith and Romeo Okwara are the two who were not absolutely elite level pass rushers but both were still productive and flashed.  Trey Hendrickson was under the radar sure but was extremely productive and the rest were big time prospects and big time pass rushers and talents.  JPP is great, yeah not a shock considering how great he was in his short time at USF.  TJ Watt was a late arrival but in that one year he was a super star and that brother connection did not hurt him, still I had him as a 1st rounder after 2-3 games that JR year.  Aaron Donald speaks for himself, one of the most productive DL in recent history, 63 TFL in three years and 27.5 sacks not including his freshman year.  So production combined with talent do mean something from time to time.  

T.J. Watt PIT
Aaron Donald LAR
Trey Hendrickson NO
Haason Reddick ARI
Za'Darius Smith GB
Myles Garrett CLE
Leonard Williams NYG
Stephon Tuitt PIT
Leonard Floyd LAR
Romeo Okwara DET
Jason Pierre-Paul TB
DeForest Buckner IND

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

I assume you mean put up big numbers against bad teams...  Gary's upside is way higher than Paye I feel.  Sure he had issues in college but again give me Gary over Paye all day long in terms of overall upside and athletic ability.  

But how much of that was because Paye was a 3* recruit coming out of high school and Rashan Gary was the #1 overall recruit back in 2016?  That does affect a person's opinion of him, and if he was a former 5* recruit coming out of high school I GUARANTEE that you wouldn't be as skeptical as him.  Some players develop later then others, and IF (and that's a HUGE if) Paye's numbers are accurate, why do you think Gary has more upside then Paye?  It was brutally obvious that Harbaugh misused Gary in college.  He was used more as a space-eater and asked to command double teams.  I actually thought his future lied as a 5T in a 3-4 defense, but given Pettine's preference for "jumbo" OLBs he moved there instead.

5 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

I had Danielle Hunter a 2nd round pick after his JR season and his workout, but clearly took it to another level in the NFL but he too has more upside and potential than Paye has physically but will see just how athletic Paye really is.  

I too had a 2nd round grade on Danielle Hunter.  I never imagined he'd have this kind of production in the NFL, although the tools were certainly there.  I put a little too much emphasis on straight-line speed in my earlier years of evaluation and not enough on explosion.  Really love the twitch (10 yard splits) and explosion (KEI) when looking at Combine numbers.

8 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Top 12 guys in the NFL in terms of sack this past year, and all outside two arguably were either very productive in college or showed big time athletic ability and potential to get after the passer.  Za'Darius Smith and Romeo Okwara are the two who were not absolutely elite level pass rushers but both were still productive and flashed.  Trey Hendrickson was under the radar sure but was extremely productive and the rest were big time prospects and big time pass rushers and talents.  JPP is great, yeah not a shock considering how great he was in his short time at USF.  TJ Watt was a late arrival but in that one year he was a super star and that brother connection did not hurt him, still I had him as a 1st rounder after 2-3 games that JR year.  Aaron Donald speaks for himself, one of the most productive DL in recent history, 63 TFL in three years and 27.5 sacks not including his freshman year.  So production combined with talent do mean something from time to time.  

I mean, we're talking about evaluating guys who are flying a bit under the radar but are going to greatly outproduce their draft slots.  Of the guys you mentioned, only T.J. Watt, Trey Hendrickson, Za'Darius Smith, Stephon Tuitt, and Romeo Okwara weren't former top 15 picks.  We're looking to find ways to find those diamond in the rough.