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RamRod

2020 Schedule

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3 hours ago, showtime said:

Both Seahawks games during the second half of the season.  Should be barn burners.

At least you were smart enough to get rid of Britt and Fluker. Should keep Donald from getting so angry that he breaks your QB in half.

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17 hours ago, jrry32 said:

It's doable. This is a weaker schedule than the past two years. It'll depend on how we do in the division and if we take care of business against the teams we should beat. Of our games outside the division, outside of the Cowboys, Eagles, and Bucs, I think we could be arguably favored in each game. People will point to the Bills, but their offense just doesn't scare me. 

We're already +2.5 underdogs to Dallas Week 1. 

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8 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

We're already +2.5 underdogs to Dallas Week 1. 

I'm not really meaning Vegas, though. I'm talking about from the perspective of intelligent football fans. But yeah, I think Dallas has an edge on paper. Of course, they also have a completely new coaching staff.

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15 hours ago, jrry32 said:

I'm not really meaning Vegas, though. I'm talking about from the perspective of intelligent football fans. But yeah, I think Dallas has an edge on paper. Of course, they also have a completely new coaching staff.

You really value a football fans perspective over Vegas?

I want someone completely unbiased to set an expectation for a game and it's damn near impossible to do with anyone who has a rooting interest. Vegas only cares about money and setting a line that would entice both sides to bet. 

They do have a new coaching staff, but to be fair, we do too with OC, DC, and Special Teams. 

I'm not complaining though. I'll grab the Rams ML at +120 happily :) 

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I see 10-6, but there is a lot of variables going into this season. If the OL holds up and improves then I think we will be well placed. I love the fact we went out to improve the run defence, especially when you consider Niners and Seahawks are/were top five rushing teams last season. The secondary, if healthy, stacks up against any other in the NFL. I hope Hill keeps up what he showed last season, he really did ball out. 

The secondary could be top 5, certainly top 10. 
The linebackers at best will be middle of the road, although it's an easy position to have some breakout seasons.
The D front is top 5. 

The OL at best will be middle of the road, but that's all we need. At worst, it will be one of the worst units in the entire NFL. 
The RBs are an unknown at this point. We have two talented runners, no doubt, and old faithful in Brown. If Akers is a stud, like many suspect, we could see this unit flourish under McVay's scheme. 
The WRs are a top tier group. Kupp and Woods are proven. I'm excited to see what Van Jefferson can do and Reynolds with more snaps! 
The TEs will be much used in the passing game. Everett and Higbee have proven themselves, plus Hopkins comes with a decent pedigree. 
The QB will be looking to prove himself top 10 this season. He was in 2017 and 2018, not last year. I'm sure with help he can get back to it. 

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8 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

You really value a football fans perspective over Vegas?

I want someone completely unbiased to set an expectation for a game and it's damn near impossible to do with anyone who has a rooting interest. Vegas only cares about money and setting a line that would entice both sides to bet. 

They do have a new coaching staff, but to be fair, we do too with OC, DC, and Special Teams. 

I'm not complaining though. I'll grab the Rams ML at +120 happily :) 

Yes. Vegas is setting odds for it to make money.

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13 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Yes. Vegas is setting odds for it to make money.

And the best way to do that is to get as much money bet for both sides. If it's favored in one direction, they have the potential to lose. And Vegas doesn't like that lol

That is why they account for not only the talent on paper, but setting, circumstance, and previous meetings,etc. It's the only true unbiased view of sports in IMO. Anyone else giving a perspective on a sporting event comes in with a previous bias. 

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I'm predicting 11-5 for us, I don't think the schedule is to bad. The travel will suck, and it sucks we don't have a long stay at home. Like the Bucs have...

vs Rams
vs Chiefs
Bye
vs Vikings

And then they got Atlanta the next week, which is like an hour flight. 

That's a good month being at home, with family, sleeping in your own bed. That's pretty damn nice. 

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2 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

And the best way to do that is to get as much money bet for both sides. If it's favored in one direction, they have the potential to lose. And Vegas doesn't like that lol

Normally yes, but with a big exception for a few teams, Dallas being chief among them

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I’m not worried about the travel because I’m 2017 the Rams travel the most and they went (11-5). Under McVay the Rams are one of the best road teams in the NFL. 
 

As for Dallas, they are always overhyped for a team whom never been to the NFCCG in like 25yrs. They are living off of their decades past success. They are so hot and cold since then. Plus I’d rather play Dallas Week 1 knowing they are breaking in a new offensive system with McCarthy and Dak probably won’t be involved in most of the offseason programs due to holding out because he wants a long term contract. Not to mention replacing Fredericks is once again going to be hard like it was in 2018 when he missed and the OL wasn’t the same. Then they lost a lot on defense so yeah Week 1 is perfect to play them and I think Rams win and possibly win by double digits.

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3 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

And the best way to do that is to get as much money bet for both sides. If it's favored in one direction, they have the potential to lose. And Vegas doesn't like that lol

That is why they account for not only the talent on paper, but setting, circumstance, and previous meetings,etc. It's the only true unbiased view of sports in IMO. Anyone else giving a perspective on a sporting event comes in with a previous bias. 

I'm fine with bias. I come on this forum to talk football. I don't gamble. I stand by what I said.

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18 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I'm fine with bias. I come on this forum to talk football. I don't gamble. I stand by what I said.

Oh I didn't think you were going to back off regardless of what I said lmao

I come here to give my bias, but when I want to look at something objectively (like who should be favorite in a game) I pivot to the book to keep me in check. A little reality is necessary from time to time. 

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10 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

Oh I didn't think you were going to back off regardless of what I said lmao

I come here to give my bias, but when I want to look at something objectively (like who should be favorite in a game) I pivot to the book to keep me in check. A little reality is necessary from time to time. 

But you realize that Vegas isn't trying to project the winner, right? They're trying to make a profit. Let's say that there are more Cowboys, Patriots, and Steelers fans willing to gamble on their team no matter what versus other fanbases, that's going to affect the lines. Vegas's motive is objective (money), but gamblers' motives aren't objective.

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2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

But you realize that Vegas isn't trying to project the winner, right? They're trying to make a profit. Let's say that there are more Cowboys, Patriots, and Steelers fans willing to gamble on their team no matter what versus other fanbases, that's going to affect the lines. Vegas's motive is objective (money), but gamblers' motives aren't objective.

Their line infers a favorite/winner. I will take their line over a fans view any day of the week. Youre confusing gamblers with fans and they're not mutually exclusive. A true gambler won't allow their fandom to impact their bets. 

Vegas' objective is to get as much money bet as possible EVENLY for both sides. That is how they guarantee a profit every week. Do not look at it as number of fans, look at is as dollar amounts. Yes, there are more Cowboys, Steelers, and Patriots fans in the world, but the average fan bets minimal. The "sharps" are betting THOUSANDS of dollars per game and these are the types of bets that swing game lines; not fanbases. If Vegas gets $1Million dollas in bets for the Cowboys and $1Million in bets for the Rams, they are only paying out $900,000 in winnings because of the vig and pocket $100K no matter what. That's the Vegas objective. When one side is far and away heavier than the other, they move the line to attract bets on the other side. 

Using the Cowboys -2.5 as an example, Vegas is anticipating this will be a 3 point game. In Dallas, it would likely be Dallas would be -6. LA Stadium is viewed as a neutral site due to the Cowboys fanbase being so large and will likely offset any home field advantage the Rams may have and there's also the possibility of there being no fans whatsoever; hence Dallas -2.5 seems pretty fair. 

Fans view of a game is emotional. A gamblers objective and Vegas setting their lines has zero emotion involved. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

Fans view of a game is emotional. A gamblers objective and Vegas setting their lines has zero emotion involved. 

The majority of gamblers, and where most of Vegas' winnings come from, are based purely off emotions. 

Sure the very few (relative to vegas) sharp bettors try to take all emotion out of it, but most of, like 80%+ (thats on the low side) of the tickets they give out are an emotional bet of some magnitude.

Which is why many lines, take advantage of that emotion. It is already baked in for teams like the Cowboys. With one of the biggest fan bases in all of American Sports, they get the most bets for them to win no matter what their line is.

So with that being said, if they think the Rams are a 2 pt favorite, and even more people would jump on that for the Cowboys, they can swing the line to the Boys being the 2pt favorite, and all they are losing is the sharp money, which is what would be the most at stake for them to lose. 

Again, Dallas, Green Bay, New England (in past years) and then each years "Hot" teams, like the Chiefs all got alittle bump in their lines, hedging their way, because the common better doesnt care if they are a 2pt favorite or a 5 pt favorite, they are betting them the same

Edited by StLunatic88
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