Instant 2020 Expectations

[Texas_OutLaw7]

5 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

You never answered. Should we assume Dak or Dalton for the original question? 

Dak. Until July 15th, the answer is Dak.

[The_Slamman]

We really need to get off to a fast start... like 7-2 at the bye week.  There are some brutal stretches after the bye.

[Dallas94Ware]

Like I said many times on this board. Lack of depth will kill us everytime. The top heavy talent we pay for with the big bucks - Zeke, Dak, Coop, Lawrence, Martin, Smith, Collins, Jaylon - will get us around 6 to 8 wins. A few carry it on his shoulder games from Dak or a few big random plays in key moments could carry us to 9 or 10.

But when it comes down to it, the lack of good cheap depth players will keep us from those 12, 13, 14 win seasons or winning anything of significance in the playoffs. Those guys who are 15 to 25 on the roster need to show up in the key moments when your top 15 are schemed away. And your 30th guy down, one or two of them has to show up big time in a big game when they are unaccounted for. This team has never really had that in a very long time. Its survived on its top players and struggled when they are game planned out of the equation. 

[resilient part 2]

I am amazed not a single voter, thus far, voted 8-8 or worse.. Is that progress??

[Dallas94Ware]

20 hours ago, resilient part 2 said:

I am amazed not a single voter, thus far, voted 8-8 or worse.. Is that progress??

6 games are against this division. Have you seen this dumpster fire division? The Eagles could be tough, but are also as inconsistent as all living hell. Even if the skins sneak a win and we split with the Eagles, thats 4 wins. If we cant scrape 4 or 5 more from elsewhere and still somehow win the division...I mean we almost won the division with 7 wins this year.

8-8 is likely, but 8-8 could easily push you into a division title and a chance to win a playoff game. I'm assuming that's why that is the leading vote.

[quiller]

I expect 10-6.   This team could go 12-4 but to do that three things need to happen.  

1- special teams needs to be vastly better
2-our LB play needs to be like 2018 not 2019
3-we need a better turn over margin then we had last year

while Dak is getting all the heat and as QB the buck does stop with him - just slightly better special teams play last year and we are 10-6 and win the division going away

[Tony7188]

My initial feelings about this season isn't too great. I don't think the NFC East will be a cakewalk this year. Ron Rivera is no pushover HC and that Redskins defense is loaded along the DL. Daniel Jones is heading into Year 2, Saquon and that OL has vastly improved. The Eagles will likely be tough as well. We lost our #1 CB, sack leading DE and the safety position (our achilles heel) was ignored once again in the draft. Outside of Clinton-Dix recapturing his GB years or Diggs being the second coming of Tre'Davious White, the secondary (especially the safeties) are going to get torched.

My record for this team is 9-7. 10-6 if we get lucky. I voted "Make Playoffs - Early Exit". I don't feel like we've done enough on defense to make a deep playoff run unfortunately.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Tony7188

[matt79511]

I love how pessimistic our fans and detractors alike are about a team that Vegas has given the fifth highest win total (10- this is a huge number for an O/U, our highest mark in a decade). At some point the “everyone always overrates the Cowboys, same stuff every year, lol 8-8” sentiment works in our favor.

This team legitimately always does the opposite of what people expect. It’s so cliche to suggest “my team plays the best when expectations are the lowest” but it’s so damn true of this team. The oddsmakers know what they’re doing, the narratives are just smoke

[Matts4313]

35 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

I love how pessimistic our fans and detractors alike are about a team that Vegas has given the fifth highest win total (10- this is a huge number for an O/U, our highest mark in a decade). At some point the “everyone always overrates the Cowboys, same stuff every year, lol 8-8” sentiment works in our favor.

This team legitimately always does the opposite of what people expect. It’s so cliche to suggest “my team plays the best when expectations are the lowest” but it’s so damn true of this team. The oddsmakers know what they’re doing, the narratives are just smoke

Until the Cowboys start practicing with the new coaching staff, I am going to continue to believe that we are at a disadvantage. 

[matt79511]

8 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Until the Cowboys start practicing with the new coaching staff, I am going to continue to believe that we are at a disadvantage. 

I think it’s ridiculous that the season is even going to happen, but it is. Our team can acclimate, the truncated offseason hurts everyone

My point is “I had high expectations for last year’s team and I’m not going to let them fool me again” (a sentiment held by fans, and local and national media alike) is choosing fleeting narratives over long-term trends that go beyond our team, and the NFL for this matter (point differential > W/L as a predictive measure). The latter make casinos forty stories high, the former make sportswriters $40k a year

[Matts4313]

20 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

I think it’s ridiculous that the season is even going to happen, but it is. Our team can acclimate, the truncated offseason hurts everyone

My point is “I had high expectations for last year’s team and I’m not going to let them fool me again” (a sentiment held by fans, and local and national media alike) is choosing fleeting narratives over long-term trends that go beyond our team, and the NFL for this matter (point differential > W/L as a predictive measure). The latter make casinos forty stories high, the former make sportswriters $40k a year

True. 

In 2018 we won virtually every close game. That weird NFL formula that starts with a P (greek word) said we should have been 8-8 instead on 10-6.

In 2019 we lost virtually every close game (with a +116pt). That same formula said we should have won "10.6" games. Rounded up 11-5. 

The formula has been pretty spot on across the league and its my understanding that Vegas uses it. Even though I can never remember what its called. 

EDIT: It is what I thought it was. Pythagorean win/loss. 

Edited May 11, 2020 by Matts4313

[matt79511]

8 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

True. 

In 2018 we won virtually every close game. That weird NFL formula that starts with a P (greek word) said we should have been 8-8 instead on 10-6.

In 2019 we lost virtually every close game (with a +116pt). That same formula said we should have won "10.6" games. Rounded up 11-5. 

The formula has been pretty spot on across the league and its my understanding that Vegas uses it. Even though I can never remember what its called. 

Pythagorean wins is what you're looking for

And, yes. Not to toot my own horn, but I made $100 off a friend betting that we'd miss the playoffs in 2019, going solely off this trend. 10-6 with an 8-2 record in one-score games and a point differential of +15, vs. 8-8/1-6/+113 are both way too extreme of anomalies to ignore. It's just not as fun to reduce season predictions down to nerd **** when you can say "This is the year!" or "The Cowboys always let you down" and go off tangents from there.

But to try to ascribe a narrative to it- we've literally traded off playoff/nonplayoff years every year since 2014, and never made it in back-to-back years under Garrett, even dating back to his time as OC. In '14 and '18, in particular, some publications literally picked Dallas to win 3-to-5 games based off free agent losses/cap casualties and general malaise- why be boring and call the Cowboys an 8-8 team when you can spit fire and say they'll be picking in the Top 5? But In 2015, some flashy additions (Hardy, Byron, Gregory, La'el) really piqued people's interests (what a letdown that year was, I was all-in on that team), and last year the local media just pounded us with propaganda about this being the best Cowboys team since the 90's (I wasn't fooled). I don't think it's a stretch to say this team reads its own press clippings and disproves them accordingly. They seem fairly consistent in that respect.

[textaz03]

8-8 until otherwise proven.

 

why?
 

1. Cause we have a recent history of not being able to get out of our own dang way. 

2. New coaching staff 

3. no OTA’s, no mini-camps to introduce the new schemes

4. no time for the different units to start gelling Together to obtain a cohesive unit status.

[matt79511]

3 minutes ago, textaz03 said:

8-8 until otherwise proven.

 

why?
 

1. Cause we have a recent history of not being able to get out of our own dang way. 

2. New coaching staff 

3. no OTA’s, no mini-camps to introduce the new schemes

4. no time for the different units to start gelling Together to obtain a cohesive unit status.

Right on cue

1. We can get in our own way in the playoffs next year. That has been our team-specific trend for over half a decade now

2-4. These are the best cases against Dallas' record not improving. They are, however, all the same thing. How is a new coaching staff in and of itself bad when the last one was a complete and utter joke?

[Runaway Jim]

I don’t think NFL games will even happen this year.