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RpMc

How much more offensive will the Vikings be under Kubiak?

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I wanted to create a thread to talk about what we expect from the Kubiak offense this year that will be different/similar to what we've seen and how our drafted pieces may fit in:

Let's hear your thoughts!

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The continuity will be huge, imo, in regards to the offensive line. And that is going to help things across the board. 

I don’t really expect to see much change, but I think some of the situational play calling will be better. But a lot will be determined on what they can get from the receiving corps. Will Theilen still be as effective without Diggs? Will Jefferson, Johnson, and Sharpe all be able to provide enough of a threat to keep coverages honest? Etc. 

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It will be interesting to see what the offense will be able to do with both an experienced OC, and QB. Both well versed in the offense. 

A first under Zimmer. 

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I don't think there will be much change.  Kubiaks' offenses have traditionally been pretty conservative.  I think he will try to bolster the OL and attempt to eliminate as many mistakes as possible. 

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I'd like to see Irv Smith play an even bigger role in the offense, as well as seeing Bisi Johnson step up and solidify the #3 WR role.

But more importantly, Garrett Bradbury needs to take the next step and be a solid Center for us.

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31 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

I'd like to see Irv Smith play an even bigger role in the offense, as well as seeing Bisi Johnson step up and solidify the #3 WR role.

But more importantly, Garrett Bradbury needs to take the next step and be a solid Center for us.

I see Irv taking giant leap forward this year...and potentially even surpassing Rudy (superficially at least) on the depth chart. 

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6 minutes ago, swede700 said:

I see Irv taking giant leap forward this year...and potentially even surpassing Rudy (superficially at least) on the depth chart. 

Interesting how close they were last year in target/reception shares, I didn't even realize it in the moment.

Rudolph: 39 catches on 48 targets, 367 yards, 6 TDs
Smith Jr: 36 catches on 47 targets, 311 yards, 2 TDs

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Rudolph was criminally under utilized in the first half of the season. 

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15 hours ago, swede700 said:

I see Irv taking giant leap forward this year...and potentially even surpassing Rudy (superficially at least) on the depth chart. 

I would love if Irv takes a step forward, he had a promising rookie year for his age. There should be tons of opportunity for him to move around as well. If he improves enough our best combo in 13 personnel might be him out wide, letting Thielen or Jefferson work in the slot.


 

Another wish of mine is to dial back Cook’s usage a bit. Nothing huge, maybe Mattison getting some more early-down carries or just getting an extra series a game. Essentially to keep Cook in the 250-carry range and not closer to 300, which is what he was on pace for last season. It looks like we’re committing to Cook long-term so we want his body to hold up. And whether his production dipping the last half of the season was the offensive line or him, it definitely couldn’t hurt to try to keep him fresher.

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3 hours ago, whitehops said:

I would love if Irv takes a step forward, he had a promising rookie year for his age. There should be tons of opportunity for him to move around as well. If he improves enough our best combo in 13 personnel might be him out wide, letting Thielen or Jefferson work in the slot.


 

Another wish of mine is to dial back Cook’s usage a bit. Nothing huge, maybe Mattison getting some more early-down carries or just getting an extra series a game. Essentially to keep Cook in the 250-carry range and not closer to 300, which is what he was on pace for last season. It looks like we’re committing to Cook long-term so we want his body to hold up. And whether his production dipping the last half of the season was the offensive line or him, it definitely couldn’t hurt to try to keep him fresher.

I agree. Cook got a ton of touches in college and so far has struggled being the guy with the injuries he has suffered and his performance down the stretch. I thought last year Mattison needed to be a bigger focal point as we continued to see Cook churn out less than 4 yards per carry though November and eventually into December.

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My question with Stefanski moving on is whether Kubiak keeps the more innovative parts of last year's run game. They did some things with presnap motion that changed blocking angles and led to a few big plays. They were fairly creative with personnel deployment too -- Thielen lined up as an H-back or in the backfield several times, etc. I wonder if some of that creativity was Stefanski's, and if so how much of it will continue without him around. 

3 hours ago, whitehops said:

I would love if Irv takes a step forward, he had a promising rookie year for his age.

Very promising!

TEs usually take a year or two to get up to speed, so for Smith to contribute that much as a 21 year-old rookie is impressive. 

I think he'll be their top TE in targets this year. I think his snap count could match Rudolph's if he gets used as the TE1 in passing situations (3rd downs, end of half/game, when they're in 11 personnel). 

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Krauser said:

I think he'll be their top TE in targets this year. I think his snap count could match Rudolph's if he gets used as the TE1 in passing situations (3rd downs, end of half/game, when they're in 11 personnel). 

One of my more favorite things from last year was to see them get creative with formations within personnel groupings. For me personally, I enjoyed seeing the different ways they used 12 personnel with how much it fit the strengths of the depth chart and the strengths of our personnel.

Edited by Klomp

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Klomp said:

One of my more favorite things from last year was to see them get creative with formations within personnel groupings. For me personally, I enjoyed seeing the different ways they used 11 personnel with how much it fit the strengths of the depth chart and the strengths of our personnel.

The Vikings didn't spend much time in 11 personnel, they were in 12 (1 back, 2 TE's) 25% of the time or 21 (2 backs, and 1 TE) 28% of the time.  11 personnel (1 back and 1 TE) was their third most used grouping at 18%, just barely ahead of 22 personnel (2 backs, 2 TE's) at 17% of the time.

With Ham, Rudolph, and Smith Jr on the roster as either highly compensated or highly drafted players, we are going to be in 12, 21, or 22 personnel a lot more than 11.

Edited by RpMc

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I cited this article last year when we brought Kubiak in, but I still think it's worthwhile even though Stefanski was technically the OC. 

The average number of total targets in the Kubiak offense is 525 (on average there are 15 throw-aways per year - no receiver is targeted on a throw-away). So if we have 525 targets next season and we have an "average year" for a Kubiak offense we will have this breakdown in terms of targets by position group

WRs - 289 targets
RBs - 79 targets
TEs - 120 targets
FBs - 37 targets

https://www.milehighreport.com/2016/6/2/11827692/the-kubiak-offense

Now what was the reality of 2019? 

Minnesota only had 442 total targets last year, about 85% of the average listed in the article. So keep that in mind.

WRs - 209 (72% of average)
RBs - 100 (126% of average)
TEs - 105 (88% of average)
FBs - 26 (70% of average)

Biggest difference is obviously the increased usage of the RBs in the passing game. Cook is obviously a large part of this, but still only received 63% of the RB targets. WR targets went down as a result, as did FB targets. Pertaining to WRs, I do wonder how much Thielen's injury issues affected things. I wouldn't rule out the position group getting closer to 250 targets in 2020. Should also mention that the article says WR1 and WR2 get 44% of the WR targets on average in the Kubiak offense. Last year, Thielen and Diggs got 32% of the targets. A decent amount lower, but again remember that Thielen missed six games. Add in Bisi Johnson's 23 targets in the 6 games Thielen missed and you're up to 37.3% of the targets.

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7 minutes ago, RpMc said:

The Vikings didn't spend much time in 11 personnel, they were in 12 (1 back, 2 TE's) 25% of the time or 21 (2 backs, and 1 TE) 28% of the time.  11 personnel (1 back and 1 TE) was their third most used grouping at 18%, just barely ahead of 22 personnel (2 backs, 2 TE's) at 17% of the time.

With Ham, Rudolph, and Smith Jr on the roster as either highly compensated or highly drafted players, we are going to be in 12, 21, or 22 personnel a lot more than 11.

I meant 12 personnel. I get them confused sometimes.

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