I've created Ron Rivera Algorithms that gives us odds on our 2020 Season Schedule! 🧠

[aceinthehouse]

I've decided to research Rivera's coaching stint while with Carolina (2011-2019). I've used all of his wins & losses & matched up those numbers vs our opponents on the Redskins 2020 schedule.

I've also taken his wins & losses for each week he has coached & combined those overall records vs the opponents we play.

I will use this algorithm, to give us an idea of how we should be Favored, Underdog or Even in said weeks. 

This will ultimately give us an idea, of what our 2020 overall record could be. Keep in mind, I'm taking rosters completely out of the equation. I've also ended Rivera's stint for Week 13 vs Washington Redskins 2019, since he was fired after that game.

So here you go! 

Week 1: Eagles (EVEN)

Rivera had an overall record of 3-2 vs Eagles. He was also 4-5 overall in Week 1.

Week 2: @Cardinals (EVEN)

Rivera had an overall record of 1-2 vs Cardinals. (2-0 vs Cardinals in Playoffs btw) He was also 5-4 overall in Week 2.

Week 3: @Browns (Slightly Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 1-1 vs Browns. He was also 5-4 overall in Week 3. 

Week 4: Ravens (Slightly Underdogs)

Rivera had an overall record of 1-1 vs Ravens. He was also 3-4 overall in Week 4.

Week 5: Rams (Slightly Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 2-1 vs Rams. He was also 4-4 overall in Week 5.

Week 6: @Giants (Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 3-1 vs Giants. He was also 3-3-1 overall in Week 6.

Week 7: Cowboys (Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 2-1 vs Cowboys. He was also 4-3 overall in Week 7.

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: Giants (Heavily Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 3-1 vs Giants. He was also 7-1 overall in Week 9.

Week 10: @Lions (Underdog)

Rivera had an overall record of 2-2 vs Lions. He was also 3-6 overall in Week 10.

Week 11: Bengals (Slightly Underdog)

Rivera had an overall record of 1-0-1 vs Bengals. He was also 3-5 overall in Week 11.

Week 12: @Cowboys (Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 2-1 vs Cowboys. He was also 5-3 overall in Week 12.

Week 13: @Steelers (Underdog)

Rivera had an overall record of 0-2 vs Steelers. He was also 4-5 overall in Week 13.

Week 14: @49ers (Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 3-1 vs 49ers (0-1 vs Niners in Playoffs btw). He was also 5-4 overall in Week 14.

Week 15: Seahawks (Slightly Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 1-5 vs Seahawks. He was also 7-2 overall in Week 15.

Week 16: Panthers (Slightly Favored)

Rivera has no record (N/A) against his former team as a coach. He was however 5-4 overall in Week 16.

Week 17: @Eagles (Favored)

Rivera had an overall record of 3-2 vs Eagles. He was also 5-4 overall in Week 17.

So there you have it guys.

We are slightly Favored to win vs Browns, Rams, Seahawks, Panthers

We are Favored to win vs Giants(wk-6), Cowboys x2, Niners & Eagles (wk-17).

We are Heavily Favored to win vs Giants.(wk-9)

 

We are Even with the Eagles (wk-1) & Cardinals.

 

We are Slight Underdogs vs Ravens & Bengals.

We are Underdogs vs Lions & Steelers.(And fortunately, not Heavily Underdogs vs anybody)

So going by this algorithm & counting the EVENS as ties.

Our record should be very close to......

REDSKINS OVERALL 2020 SEASON RECORD should be close to.....

10-4-2

 

[naptownskinsfan]

He's never had a roster this devoid of talent, and was a sub .500 coach his last four years in Carolina.  

If you told me 4-10-2 I would believe it.  

[turtle28]

His first year in Carolina he was 6-10, around that record give or take a few wins is a good guess. 

[ripsean21]

41 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

He's never had a roster this devoid of talent, and was a sub .500 coach his last four years in Carolina.  

If you told me 4-10-2 I would believe it.  

I don’t think we’re completely void of talent I think there’s just holes that weren’t going to get filled with the upgrade in talent certain spots got. Our talent is just young and unproven. But there’s young bright talent. Coaches have a foundation to start with next year we will continue to add but this isn’t a complete tear down and rebuild we kinda already started that part.

[TKellion]

Let us look at it clearly.If RR and JDR are half the defensive coaches they are built up to be then our defense is worth 4 wins.Can our offense win a few games?

[MikeT14]

Ace, this "algorithm" unfortunately matches up about as well as your Bye Week one.

[aceinthehouse]

22 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Ace, this "algorithm" unfortunately matches up about as well as your Bye Week one.

We'll, yes & no.

The problem with the bye week thread was I only went back about 6 years, instead of doing a study for at least 10-20 years. A more consistent & accurate study. Sloppy on my end & laziness.

Plus, it's only one criteria & very susceptible to error. But it was a little interesting.

 

Here, we have Rivera's entire tenure with Carolina, up to the point he was fired. (After Redskins game in 2019) or from 2011-to-2019. Almost a complete 9 year study.

If he had head coached somewhere else, I would have included that as well. But, he didn't.

So I just combined his vs record against all his opponents + his overall record for each week of the season.

The only thing I didn't do, was separate his Home vs Away % in all those games. That would have broke the study down even more consistently.

Why the study at all?

Because I feel that certain coaches have more or less success vs certain teams.

I also feel that coaches have certain success during certain parts of the year or weeks during a season..

For example: did you notice that week 9 & week 15 are the only 2 weeks where Rivera is almost unbeatable? 7-1 & 7-2 respectively.

Every other week he has coached he borderlines even or close. In fact, week 10 & 11 are the only 2 weeks where he has a losing record separated by 2 games or more.

Coincidence? Maybe...but I don't believe so.

It's interesting...because

If we had drawn Seattle Seahawks in any other week besides week 9 or week 15? (We play them in week 15 this year btw)

We assuredly would have been underdogs or heavily underdogs. Rivera has a 1-5 lifetime record vs them in regular season. (1-1 in playoffs)

But Rivera's record in week 9 & week 15 are so excellent. That it literally evened out what would have been a sure bad spot to draw Seattle.

Does that mean we'll win the game for sure? No

But of all the spots to draw Seattle? A team Rivera has had trouble beating?

We couldn't have asked for a better spot according to our schedule.

Do I actually think that drawing Seattle in Week 15 is better for us, then say had we drawn them in week 4? (Where Rivera is 3-4 during that week)

I sure do.

[aceinthehouse]

And btw, I just look at Pete Carroll's week 15 record. He's coached Seattle from 2010-2019 or 10 years.

He's 7-3 in week 15. So that obviously would also have to be factored in as well. Not quite as good as Rivera, but still good enough to change us from slightly Favored, to them being simply favored or us underdogs.

That's a 4 game swing from a 8-7 game advantage, to a 3 game disadvantage.

So we should simply be underdogs in this game.

But had we drawn them in say week 10, instead of week 15? Where Rivera is 3-6 that week?

We would have been Big Underdogs.

So it's still good, we play them week 15. We at least have a punchers chance with Rivera's 7-2 record there.

[aceinthehouse]

And the reason I didn't incorporate the other coaches records for each week besides laziness?

How can I get an accurate reading for Matt Rhule from Carolina?

Or Judge Joe Brown from the Giants?

There isn't one.

Even Peterson from Philly is limited.

I could do Mcarthy (GB) for Dallas, or 

But so many new coaches in the league really prevents that for now. Even Niners, Cardinals, Browns, etc.

So I just did Rivera's numbers.

[turtle28]

21 hours ago, TKellion said:

Let us look at it clearly.If RR and JDR are half the defensive coaches they are built up to be then our defense is worth 4 wins.Can our offense win a few games?

I think we are going to need the defense & running game to carry this team, just like we needed last year but Gruden didn’t do it and then, it never happened.

If Rivera has a an approach like he usually does with his offense being built around the running game, we have the ability to have a strong running game which will help the passing game too, we can control the clock, which will also help the defense.

I don’t think we are at the point to have a Kirk/Gruden passing game where we can throw it 35-40 times a game and score nearly 30 points most games while having the 3rd ranked offense in the league like in 2016.

I mean there’s only been once in NFL history where it was really just a defense and great running game that carried a team and that was the Ravens with their great D and Jamal Lewis running the ball in the early part of the 2000s.

I don’t think our D is anywhere close to that level, and our running game won’t be either IMO, kinda hard to suggest the D is going to get us 4 wins. They’d have to entirely shut down opposing offenses to where they can’t score in the 20s, and I don’t see the Redskins with that kind of dominant defense. We don’t have the 2000 Ravens or the 85 bears D.

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, aceinthehouse said:

We'll, yes & no.

The problem with the bye week thread was I only went back about 6 years, instead of doing a study for at least 10-20 years. A more consistent & accurate study. Sloppy on my end & laziness.

Plus, it's only one criteria & very susceptible to error. But it was a little interesting.

 

Here, we have Rivera's entire tenure with Carolina, up to the point he was fired. (After Redskins game in 2019) or from 2011-to-2019. Almost a complete 9 year study.

If he had head coached somewhere else, I would have included that as well. But, he didn't.

So I just combined his vs record against all his opponents + his overall record for each week of the season.

The only thing I didn't do, was separate his Home vs Away % in all those games. That would have broke the study down even more consistently.

Why the study at all?

Because I feel that certain coaches have more or less success vs certain teams.

I also feel that coaches have certain success during certain parts of the year or weeks during a season..

For example: did you notice that week 9 & week 15 are the only 2 weeks where Rivera is almost unbeatable? 7-1 & 7-2 respectively.

Every other week he has coached he borderlines even or close. In fact, week 10 & 11 are the only 2 weeks where he has a losing record separated by 2 games or more.

Coincidence? Maybe...but I don't believe so.

It's interesting...because

If we had drawn Seattle Seahawks in any other week besides week 9 or week 15? (We play them in week 15 this year btw)

We assuredly would have been underdogs or heavily underdogs. Rivera has a 1-5 lifetime record vs them in regular season. (1-1 in playoffs)

But Rivera's record in week 9 & week 15 are so excellent. That it literally evened out what would have been a sure bad spot to draw Seattle.

Does that mean we'll win the game for sure? No

But of all the spots to draw Seattle? A team Rivera has had trouble beating?

We couldn't have asked for a better spot according to our schedule.

Do I actually think that drawing Seattle in Week 15 is better for us, then say had we drawn them in week 4? (Where Rivera is 3-4 during that week)

I sure do.

How does your algorithm work for a team that sucks? 

[aceinthehouse]

34 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

How does your algorithm work for a team that sucks? 

This team doesn't suck.

Anytime you hire a head coach, who probably isn't qualified to be a head coach?

And that Head coach doesn't have appropriate experienced Coordinators or staff to support that unqualified head coach?

Then have said coach run summer camp practices vs actual tough football practices?

You're not going to be good. Period.

No defense should be confused about what their assignments are on the field.

Staring at each other in confusion.

Who benches a HOF, still productive RB week 1? 

These guys were morons.

I actually believe, had myself, turtle & all other football future Redskin fan members been on the coaching staff for 2019.

We could have won 3 games.

That's not a testiment to how qualified we are.....

But how bad the coaching has been here.

I would bet my football future membership here...

That we win at least 6 games next year, just from that change alone.

I would bet a 1 year ban, minimum...

That I'm correct.

We do not suck.

There's lots of talent on the this team.

And now we have coaching that may not be great....

But at least, competent.

I guarantee we win 6 games minimum in 2020.

Assuming there is a FULL football season at all. (Had to put that in there)

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, aceinthehouse said:

This team doesn't suck.

Anytime you hire a head coach, who probably isn't qualified to be a head coach?

And that Head coach doesn't have appropriate experienced Coordinators or staff to support that unqualified head coach?

Then have said coach run summer camp practices vs actual tough football practices?

You're not going to be good. Period.

No defense should be confused about what their assignments are on the field.

Staring at each other in confusion.

Who benches a HOF, still productive RB week 1? 

These guys were morons.

I actually believe, had myself, turtle & all other football future Redskin fan members been on the coaching staff for 2019.

We could have won 3 games.

That's not a testiment to how qualified we are.....

But how bad the coaching has been here.

I would bet my football future membership here...

That we win at least 6 games next year, just from that change alone.

I would bet a 1 year ban, minimum...

That I'm correct.

We do not suck.

There's lots of talent on the this team.

And now we have coaching that may not be great....

But at least, competent.

I guarantee we win 6 games minimum in 2020.

Assuming there is a FULL football season at all. (Had to put that in there)

The Redskins have one of the youngest teams in the NFL. They have an entire new coaching staff who are new to all of these players. As of right now, we don’t even know if there will be an offseason to work with these young players and to develop them in Rivera’s systems on offense and defense. 
 

You can’t possibly think that this current roster is a roster that will be better that average and probably worse bc of the reasons I mentioned before. If you are, you are ignoring every single fact out there.

I don’t think the Redskins will have the worst record in the league, but I think it’s out there to think they’d be any better than average. An average record is in a perfect world for this roster, meaning a real offseason - which we don’t have - everyone staying healthy and everyone reaching their potential, which never happens.

As for me coaching, I don’t know the first thing about it. I have never coached any level of football in my life. I watched my cousins and his friends from back in Ohio coach their HS football team a decade ago when I had to be in Ohio for 3 months for work, and I couldn’t have done it. I would fail there, possibly @Thaiphoon and some others who have coached at the HS level or whatever could do it, but I think fans really, really underestimate how much NFL coaches know about football and how much work they put in developing the team and their game plans - even the worst coaches. We’re very naive about coaching at the NFL level. Thinking we know more and actually knowing more and getting better results are two entirely different things.

Edited May 10, 2020 by turtle28

[naptownskinsfan]

2 hours ago, aceinthehouse said:

This team doesn't suck.

Anytime you hire a head coach, who probably isn't qualified to be a head coach?

And that Head coach doesn't have appropriate experienced Coordinators or staff to support that unqualified head coach?

Then have said coach run summer camp practices vs actual tough football practices?

You're not going to be good. Period.

No defense should be confused about what their assignments are on the field.

Staring at each other in confusion.

Who benches a HOF, still productive RB week 1? 

These guys were morons.

I actually believe, had myself, turtle & all other football future Redskin fan members been on the coaching staff for 2019.

We could have won 3 games.

That's not a testiment to how qualified we are.....

But how bad the coaching has been here.

I would bet my football future membership here...

That we win at least 6 games next year, just from that change alone.

I would bet a 1 year ban, minimum...

That I'm correct.

We do not suck.

There's lots of talent on the this team.

And now we have coaching that may not be great....

But at least, competent.

I guarantee we win 6 games minimum in 2020.

Assuming there is a FULL football season at all. (Had to put that in there)

Dude, you know Rivera only had four winning seasons while with the Panthers right?  And he finished his final four years there after the 15-1 season with a losing record?  

I like some of the things that were happening, but your "algorithm" is off.  How many of those teams have the same coaches from 2011?  Same scheme?  Same players?  How did the Panthers evolve over that period.  

Also, if you are in the NFL, you are normally qualified to be there.  Jay Gruden paid his dues and had multiple head coaching interviews before getting our job and was well-regarded as an offensive mind.  Greg Manusky hasn't been a great defensive coordinator in his career, but the fact remains that the Redskins were his third stop as a DC.  Gruden hired the wrong people and made some wrong decisions as a head coach, but come on man.  

I get having hope but this is crazy talk.  If this team goes 8-8 everything will have gone right for us.  I still think even the best case scenario is six wins, but I'm thinking less than that.  There is not as much talent on this roster as you think there is.  

[turtle28]

@aceinthehouse Rivera was 6-10 in his first year in Carolina when Cam was a rookie. That’s your best comparison, not anything Rivera did years later after he had built and developed a team into what he wanted.