2021 NFL Draft Thread

[MacReady]

Just now, spilltray said:

I get your point, but cutting him doesn't "save much. If you cut him, yes you don't have to pay his 10 mil salary, but you also take a 5.5 mil cap hit, but then you need a replacement. Rookie year 1? That's a potentially gaping hole, for really not much savings. Sign a low level FA? Probably eats up most of that 4.5 and is still a down step.

Cutting Preston Smith works because you have Gary behind him, and the savings is significant. Cutting Adrian Amos is very "penny wise, pound foolish", especially if you are possibly losing King as well.

This is all true if the salary cap stays the same or goes up, but the 2021 salary cap is very up in the air right now.

If it’s 175 million, there are going to be cuts league wide that don’t make much sense.

And at safety... Considering how undervalued the position is league wide, that’s where that little amount in savings becomes a necessary saving.

I don’t want us to cut Amos.  He’s a perfect box type “strong” safety who is underrated in pass coverage.  I want us to re-sign King.  He’s worth a mid-level contract for the 8 games and playoffs you can count on him playing.

But... Paying Aaron 30 million against the cap when the cap might be as low as 175 is just not feasible while paying your safety 10 million.

[spilltray]

I just don't think 4.5 mil is enough. What's going to happen is there are going to be more signifcant cuts. If you have to make up for the cap going DOWN 20mil or so, it's going to take bigger moves than that. I still think they are going to work something down to spread that out, rather than eat it all next year.

 

Oh also WR.... we are far from "Good here" MVS isn't going to get it at this point. He's had all the chances and still wildly inconsistent across the board. Maybe Lazard is more than a flash in the pan, but as of now he's got to show more than he's had a chance to. It's still just Davante Adams and a bunch of roster filler. Also, you don't want to have to count on a rookie WR to take a huge role, so I'd get that guy in the system now and let him challenge for snaps next year as he's ready. As far as I'm concerned, the WR group for next year is Adams, Lazard, and Funchess, with everyone else on the bubble.

[PacAttack04]

Depends on how he looks for the predraft process, Zaven Collins is the type of ILB that I feel we’d consider taking round 1. Guys got all the tools, big enough to not get dominated at the POA, good in coverage at the college level in zone. Could possibly function as a 3rd edge if he becomes a better pass rusher.  But long term, could see him being a 3 down SILB/edge rusher. I’ve seen him compared to Kyle Van Noy who I lived as a prospect, think he’s a similar player to him when he gets to the NFL, and I think that could do a lot for our interior run defense at the 2nd level.

 

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, spilltray said:

I just don't think 4.5 mil is enough. What's going to happen is there are going to be more signifcant cuts. If you have to make up for the cap going DOWN 20mil or so, it's going to take bigger moves than that. I still think they are going to work something down to spread that out, rather than eat it all next year.

 

Oh also WR.... we are far from "Good here" MVS isn't going to get it at this point. He's had all the chances and still wildly inconsistent across the board. Maybe Lazard is more than a flash in the pan, but as of now he's got to show more than he's had a chance to. It's still just Davante Adams and a bunch of roster filler. Also, you don't want to have to count on a rookie WR to take a huge role, so I'd get that guy in the system now and let him challenge for snaps next year as he's ready. As far as I'm concerned, the WR group for next year is Adams, Lazard, and Funchess, with everyone else on the bubble.

I think he was only talking about first round picks.  Davante, MVS, Lazard, Funchess is "good" if we are looking at the type of WR probably available late 1st round.  Even if we lose out the rest of the season, we have 9 wins.  The Eagles, Rams, and Titans finished with 9 wins last season.  Their draft order was:  21, 20, and 29, respectively.  Is it possible that there is a WR that can help in that range? Yes.  Is it likely? Probably not. 

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Amos is playing really well right now both watching the games as well as in his PFF score if anybody still cares about that, but he's not a 10 million per year player, and he's set to make 10 million and then 10.6 million over the next two years with a dead cap hit of 5.5 million if we cut him after this season.

There's a very simple question, do you believe you can get a similar (or better player) for $5M or less?  The answer is no.  Amos isn't a cap casualty.

[ThatJerkDave]

Cap savings (numbers from https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/2021/)

I am not advocating cutting anyone at this moment.  Spotrac estimates that we are 18.3 million over the cap for 2021.  I don't know if that includes a rookie pool or not.

Davante Adams - 13 million

Za'Darius Smith - 10 million

Preston Smith - 8 million

Adrian Amos - 4 million

Billy Turner - 3 million

Rick Wagner - 4 million

Dean Lowry - 3 million

Christian Kirksey - 6 million

Aaron Rodgers - 5 million

There are a lot of guys that save us about 1 million to 700k, but then you have to sign someone new, and they probably eat all of that money right back up.  

 

I think our easiest would be Kirksey + whichever of Wagner or Turner we think is worse.  Our best economic move is cutting Davante and Za'Darius, though that is a pretty poor football move.  

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, spilltray said:

I just don't think 4.5 mil is enough. What's going to happen is there are going to be more signifcant cuts. If you have to make up for the cap going DOWN 20mil or so, it's going to take bigger moves than that. I still think they are going to work something down to spread that out, rather than eat it all next year.

 

Oh also WR.... we are far from "Good here" MVS isn't going to get it at this point. He's had all the chances and still wildly inconsistent across the board. Maybe Lazard is more than a flash in the pan, but as of now he's got to show more than he's had a chance to. It's still just Davante Adams and a bunch of roster filler. Also, you don't want to have to count on a rookie WR to take a huge role, so I'd get that guy in the system now and let him challenge for snaps next year as he's ready. As far as I'm concerned, the WR group for next year is Adams, Lazard, and Funchess, with everyone else on the bubble.

We lead the league in points scored per game. 

[spilltray]

17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

We lead the league in points scored per game. 

And the WR are awful

Adams - 111 targets, 84 catches

MVS - 53 targets, 25 catches

Lazard - 31 targets, 22 catches

ESB - 10 targets, 5 catches

Taylor - 6 targets, 5 catches

Tonyan, Jones, and Williams all have more catches than anyone on that list than Adams. MVS in particular is just disappointing. Less than 50% completion. Now Lazard played in half as many games so that is good, but it's still a pretty anemic group.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, spilltray said:

And the WR are awful

Adams - 111 targets, 84 catches

MVS - 53 targets, 25 catches

Lazard - 31 targets, 22 catches

ESB - 10 targets, 5 catches

Taylor - 6 targets, 5 catches

Tonyan, Jones, and Williams all have more catches than anyone on that list than Adams. MVS in particular is just disappointing. Less than 50% completion. Now Lazard played in half as many games so that is good, but it's still a pretty anemic group.

Who gives a **** about completion percentage?

Yards per target:

Adams: 9.3

MVS: 9.8

Lazard: 11.1

EQ: 8.1

Taylor: 11.0

MVS is 53rd in receiving yards and 35th in TDs.

Lazard is 37th in receiving yards per game.

[spilltray]

15 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Who gives a **** about completion percentage?

Yards per target:

Adams: 9.3

MVS: 9.8

Lazard: 11.1

EQ: 8.1

Taylor: 11.0

MVS is 53rd in receiving yards and 35th in TDs.

Lazard is 37th in receiving yards per game.

MVS should do better. He drops way too many. Lazard has only been healthy for 6 games. None of the rest can work their way into enough reps to even really matter. They are running heavy TE/RB formations because the WR group is pretty pedestrian. Maybe Lazard can be a solid #2, it remains to be seen. He has athletic limitations. Past that, they could use some horses in the room. I'd look for a guy in the top half of the draft and maybe a Funchess level FA too.

 

The offense is making it work but the WR aren't much of a part of that.

[MacReady]

31 minutes ago, spilltray said:

And the WR are awful

Adams - 111 targets, 84 catches

MVS - 53 targets, 25 catches

Lazard - 31 targets, 22 catches

ESB - 10 targets, 5 catches

Taylor - 6 targets, 5 catches

Tonyan, Jones, and Williams all have more catches than anyone on that list than Adams. MVS in particular is just disappointing. Less than 50% completion. Now Lazard played in half as many games so that is good, but it's still a pretty anemic group.

If you had the number one scoring defense in the NFL and your second ILB was terrible, is that where you would put your investment in the off-season?

Spoiler alert: If you’re an elite offense with your top two receivers missing a combined 8 games, you don’t need more receiver help.

 

[incognito_man]

16 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

If you had the number one scoring defense in the NFL and your second ILB was terrible, is that where you would put your investment in the off-season?

Spoiler alert: If you’re an elite offense with your top two receivers missing a combined 8 games, you don’t need more receiver help.

 

I think we definitely draft 1-3 WRs next year. All our guys are FA's after 2021. I think you are not arguing against drafting WRs, though - just pointing this out.

[AlexGreen#20]

9 minutes ago, spilltray said:

MVS should do better. He drops way too many. Lazard has only been healthy for 6 games. None of the rest can work their way into enough reps to even really matter. They are running heavy TE/RB formations because the WR group is pretty pedestrian. Maybe Lazard can be a solid #2, it remains to be seen. He has athletic limitations. Past that, they could use some horses in the room. I'd look for a guy in the top half of the draft and maybe a Funchess level FA too.

 

The offense is making it work but the WR aren't much of a part of that.

The offense isn't "Making it work". The offense is dominating. It's leading the league in points scored. 

The offense isn't "running heavy TE/RB formations because the WR group is pretty pedestrian." They're running the same kind of personnel groupings that all the Shanahan offenses are running. This isn't a 2.9 WRs per snap offense that McCarthy was running.

What athletic limitations does Allen Lazard have that other #2 receivers don't? This team isn't looking for a #2 receiver. It has 2 #2 receivers. 

This offense is cruising. The only element it's missing right now is currently injured in Deguara, and that's a very minor piece.

The only offensive position that an offensive 1st rounder would make sense is OT, and even that's not a home run with how the rotation has held things down there.

The defense needs another guy on the defensive line, even if you like Keke.

I doubt Preston gets cut, but if that move is made, you need another edge rusher.

If King walks you need another Corner immediately.

Hell I'd argue if you're going to play 6 DBs every snap, you need another DB anyway. Lord knows this would be a different looking defense with a Minkah-esque player getting reps over Greene.

 

[MacReady]

Just now, incognito_man said:

I think we definitely draft 1-3 WRs next year. All our guys are FA's after 2021. I think you are not arguing against drafting WRs, though - just pointing this out.

Yep, probably a second and third or third and fourth round pick there for sure. 

It's a double dip type future need.

 

[PossibleCabbage]

I think the thing about the cap going down is that nobody's going to be flush with cash, so a lot of guys are going to take 1 year deals to try to hit FA after the new TV deals make the cap explode.