2021 NFL Draft Thread

[mikemike778]

On 4/8/2021 at 6:26 PM, R T said:

He turned 21YO 3 days ago, he is a Redshirt Sophomore who is still growing into his frame. He is going to be drafted on potential upside, not to be Z. Smith from day one. It took Z. Smith 4 seasons in the NFL to become the player Packers fans know today. 

The problem with this is you get the most value out of your draft picks in their first four seasons. With the exception of maybe QB,  if your first rounder takes until his 4th season to be what you drafted him for then its probably a wasted pick or at least partly wasted.

 

[mikemike778]

On 4/8/2021 at 11:45 PM, MantyWrestler said:

Who wouldn’t be in trouble if their top 2 pass rushers went down?

If you lose your top 2 players in most positions you are in trouble. 

[R T]

1 minute ago, mikemike778 said:

The problem with this is you get the most value out of your draft picks in their first four seasons. With the exception of maybe QB,  if your first rounder takes until his 4th season to be what you drafted him for then its probably a wasted pick or at least partly wasted.

 

The guy was 2nd in the nation in sacks as a redshirt freshman with 15.5 to Chase Young who had 16.5. Because it took Z. Smith 4 years doesn't mean it takes everyone 4 years. 

[packfanfb]

Stevenson may be a Day 3 sleeper for us. Very good return man if we're looking to address that element.

[R T]

My SWAG 10 possible CB's for the Packers. 

Greg Newsome - Northwestern

Asante Samuel Jr. - Florida State

Paulson Adebo - Stanford

Benjamin St-Juste - Minnesota

Ambry Thomas - Michigan

Robert Rochell - Central Arkansas 

Keith Taylor - Washington

Marco Wilson - Florida

Zech McPhearson - Texas Tech

Nate Hobbs - Illinois

And a bonus guy who is listed as a CB, but I would love to see the Packers add just as a Returner is Avery Williams - Boise State 

 

 

[packfanfb]

Looking at the available prospects in each position group, plus the Packers' historical tendencies, what percentage would you assign to a position group most likely to go at 29: 

I'd go with this: 

OL: 55% (Likely OT here but even IOL could be in play after losing Linsley)

DB: 25% (I say DB instead of straight up CB to account for someone like Holland)

WR: 10% (Would the Packers be tempted by a Batemon or Marshall at 29....)

DL: 5% (I'd put this higher but the top-end talent of this class sucks. Barmore would be the only option for me here and I'm guessing he'll get over-drafted before 29 due to the lack of other DL options). 

ILB: 5% (This is probably even too high tbh)

0%: QB, RB, TE, EDGE

[DWhitehurst]

12 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Looking at the available prospects in each position group, plus the Packers' historical tendencies, what percentage would you assign to a position group most likely to go at 29: 

I'd go with this: 

OL: 55% (Likely OT here but even IOL could be in play after losing Linsley)

DB: 25% (I say DB instead of straight up CB to account for someone like Holland)

WR: 10% (Would the Packers be tempted by a Batemon or Marshall at 29....)

DL: 5% (I'd put this higher but the top-end talent of this class sucks. Barmore would be the only option for me here and I'm guessing he'll get over-drafted before 29 due to the lack of other DL options). 

ILB: 5% (This is probably even too high tbh)

0%: QB, RB, TE, EDGE

Great post. It may be bias, but if they stay at #29, presuming a CB like Newsome or Farley is already taken, then I would strongly guess they go OT, and unless Tevin Jenkins is on the board, they go with a relatively safe pick (high floor, lower ceiling) like Liam Eichenberg.

Now, here's another hypothetical question: say they trade up with the Colts for pick #21. Which player/position would it be for? Even then, I could see it be for an OT just as well as a CB. Can't see it being worth it for any other player/position, unless something inexplicable happens like LB Micah Parsons dropping. 

[Forge]

On 4/9/2021 at 8:47 PM, packfanfb said:

Stevenson may be a Day 3 sleeper for us. Very good return man if we're looking to address that element.

Yep, he's one of the guys I've been looking at that for a returner role for the 9ers as well. I prefer Avery Williams since we need corner help as well (and Stevenson's injury history scares me) though. 

[Forge]

10 hours ago, R T said:

And a bonus guy who is listed as a CB, but I would love to see the Packers add just as a Returner is Avery Williams - Boise State 

 

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

Looking at the available prospects in each position group, plus the Packers' historical tendencies, what percentage would you assign to a position group most likely to go at 29: 

I'd go with this: 

OL: 55% (Likely OT here but even IOL could be in play after losing Linsley)

DB: 25% (I say DB instead of straight up CB to account for someone like Holland)

WR: 10% (Would the Packers be tempted by a Batemon or Marshall at 29....)

DL: 5% (I'd put this higher but the top-end talent of this class sucks. Barmore would be the only option for me here and I'm guessing he'll get over-drafted before 29 due to the lack of other DL options). 

ILB: 5% (This is probably even too high tbh)

0%: QB, RB, TE, EDGE

I mostly agree.  Now watch me be totally wrong in all analysis  

Unless there is a serious run on the tackles, there should be someone that can play at the time of our pick.  I think this is the strength of this draft.  I also think it is the right thing to do.  It is boring, but you knock that domino down and your HOF QB has an easier ride into the sunset, and your new QB has bookends to protect him.  40%

I wonder about the WRs.  Terrace Marshall Jr. screams Packer WR, so does Nico Collins. The current Packers seem to value big WRs.  J'Mon was the smallest WR that Gute has drafted, and he was 6'3 205.  We currently have 9 WRs on the "roster."  Only Chris Blair is listed at under 200 pounds, and he is listed at 198.  Four of the nine WRs are 6'4 or taller, and I would argue that those four are the most likely to make the final roster (along with Davante) of the current group.  15%

Gute does value the defensive back position.  I think I would pump up the percentage just based on his history.  I might be overthinking it, but I think that guys that are supposed to go around our pick are not much different than guys we can get later in the draft.  Is Asante Samuel Jr really that much better than Aaron Robinson? Again, I am probably wrong, but I think we can get a B player in the first but get a B- player in the third.  I don't really like the opportunity cost. 35%

ILB might be a little higher.  And I say that because if Zaven Collins is there, you have to at least think about it, he is an ever so lesser Tremaine Edmunds.  The may really want that hybrid safety and Owusu-Koramoah fits that role well.  8%

I can see EDGE being the selection if the board just falls to absolute crap.  Same with RB.  1% combined.

DL really is Barmore or nobody in round 1.  I don't really know how to calculate a percentage for that. 1%?

 

[mikemike778]

5 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Looking at the available prospects in each position group, plus the Packers' historical tendencies, what percentage would you assign to a position group most likely to go at 29: 

I'd go with this: 

OL: 55% (Likely OT here but even IOL could be in play after losing Linsley)

DB: 25% (I say DB instead of straight up CB to account for someone like Holland)

WR: 10% (Would the Packers be tempted by a Batemon or Marshall at 29....)

DL: 5% (I'd put this higher but the top-end talent of this class sucks. Barmore would be the only option for me here and I'm guessing he'll get over-drafted before 29 due to the lack of other DL options). 

ILB: 5% (This is probably even too high tbh)

0%: QB, RB, TE, EDGE

 

It depends as well on how much Gute puts on this year versus the future.

If its primarily for now then surely the pick must be CB or OT (lets say 60% OL, 35% CB, 5% something else)

If its for the future then pretty much everything is in play. There's a reasonable chance both Smiths will be gone next season, the cupboard is empty at WR. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

3 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

DL really is Barmore or nobody in round 1.  I don't really know how to calculate a percentage for that. 1%?

I like Levi Onwuzurike enough to consider him at #29. Actually, I like him as much, maybe more than Barmore (though Barmore has more potential talent, he also has more questions on the consistency of his motor). If Levi was the pick I'd be pretty happy. Would he be the most talented player left on the board for Gute, when the pick comes around ? No idea.

In descending order of preference at #29 (ie most wanted first), I'd probably go:

OT Teven Jenkins,   LB Zaven Collins,  DL Barmore/Onwuzurike,   CB Greg Newsome II,   Edge Jaelan Phillips (this low due to concussions, other injuries, and it not being a position of real need at this time),  WR Bateman/Toney/Marshall, others.

Hardest one to slot was CB Newsome. I could slot him anywhere from 4th best (where he is) down to 6th (just before 'others').

So, how would the rest of you slot your 'most wanted' ?

Edited April 11, 2021 by OneTwoSixFive

[VonKarman]

Toney would be out of my list. He's not the type of guy you draft in the 1st round.

My most wanted are:

Farley (if he falls)

JOK

Bateman

Newsome

Barmore

Samuel Jr.

Little

Jenkins

Nixon

[packfanfb]

8 hours ago, DWhitehurst said:

Great post. It may be bias, but if they stay at #29, presuming a CB like Newsome or Farley is already taken, then I would strongly guess they go OT, and unless Tevin Jenkins is on the board, they go with a relatively safe pick (high floor, lower ceiling) like Liam Eichenberg.

Now, here's another hypothetical question: say they trade up with the Colts for pick #21. Which player/position would it be for? Even then, I could see it be for an OT just as well as a CB. Can't see it being worth it for any other player/position, unless something inexplicable happens like LB Micah Parsons dropping. 

Yea no matter where the Packers draft in the 20s, I see OT and CB as the overwhelmingly favorite positions in Rd 1 for them. Moving up simply changes the overall target IMO, not really the position group we are targeting.

[packfanfb]

5 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Unless there is a serious run on the tackles, there should be someone that can play at the time of our pick.  I think this is the strength of this draft.  I also think it is the right thing to do.  It is boring, but you knock that domino down and your HOF QB has an easier ride into the sunset, and your new QB has bookends to protect him.  40%

Yea, it's just such a deep position at the bottom of the first round. Just depends where guys like Radunz, Cosmi, Eichenberg, Little, Leatherwood are on GB's board and in what order...

5 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I wonder about the WRs.  Terrace Marshall Jr. screams Packer WR, so does Nico Collins. The current Packers seem to value big WRs.  J'Mon was the smallest WR that Gute has drafted, and he was 6'3 205.  We currently have 9 WRs on the "roster."  Only Chris Blair is listed at under 200 pounds, and he is listed at 198.  Four of the nine WRs are 6'4 or taller, and I would argue that those four are the most likely to make the final roster (along with Davante) of the current group.  15%

Yea, every time I look at the WRs, Marshall just keeps standing out as a guy I think the Packers would covet. Batemon as well. He's not 6'3" or anything, but he would be the closest thing we have to Adams on the roster if we picked him up. I'd put Batemon and Marshall as the top 2 "Packer WR types" ahead of even Toney. 

5 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Gute does value the defensive back position.  I think I would pump up the percentage just based on his history.  I might be overthinking it, but I think that guys that are supposed to go around our pick are not much different than guys we can get later in the draft.  Is Asante Samuel Jr really that much better than Aaron Robinson? Again, I am probably wrong, but I think we can get a B player in the first but get a B- player in the third.  I don't really like the opportunity cost. 35%

I think CB is the more likely position (over OT) to be cleaned out a bit before 29. I just don't see Newsome making it to 29 and I'm guessing he's the top CB on our board (of the realistic options after Surtain/Horn). No idea if Farley is even on the board with his medical, knowing how conservative we are there. I LOVE Samuel and would gladly make him the pick at 29, but do the Packers like him that much given his size and "less than elite" workout numbers? I hope they do, but I have my doubts. That leaves an option like Jevon Holland who I am really high on because he can play that 3rd safety, nickel CB (star) position. 

5 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

ILB might be a little higher.  And I say that because if Zaven Collins is there, you have to at least think about it, he is an ever so lesser Tremaine Edmunds.  The may really want that hybrid safety and Owusu-Koramoah fits that role well.  8%

 

JOK would be an intriguing pick up. That wouldn't upset me. I don't see Collins making it to 29. I think he's one of those guys who will get drafted earlier than most predicted. Bolton seems kind of "meh" at 29 considering the other positions/guys I think will be there. 

5 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I can see EDGE being the selection if the board just falls to absolute crap.  Same with RB.  1% combined.

DL really is Barmore or nobody in round 1.  I don't really know how to calculate a percentage for that. 1%?

I don't see RB, but EDGE is certainly always at least on the table given the "premium" position designation. I don't see it this year, but a guy like Basham would be intriguing because he's Z-like in that I think he can play EDGE/3-tech in our defense. 

Yea, it's too bad the DL class is pretty weak up top. Chances seem pretty small we go there unless Barmore is still there.