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2021 NFL Draft Thread


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9 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Baron Browning is one of Nagler's draft crushes. I only mention is because I really haven't seen him talked about much, nor do I know much about him

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2021/01/120844/five-former-ohio-state-players-look-to-impress-nfl-coaches-and-scouts-at-2021-senior-bowl

 

Some nice stuff written about him from the Senior Bowl.

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On 4/11/2021 at 9:30 PM, CWood21 said:

Just because you subscribe to the BPA concept doesn't mean positional values aren't taken into account.  Let's say your draft board has a RB and an EDGE as your top two highest graded players.  How do you decide which position you take?  Based purely on positional value, you'd take the EDGE since it's a "more valuable" position.  But what happens if the RB class is really, really top heavy with no real depth to it, and the EDGE class is significantly deeper where you believe you can get a starting-caliber EDGE in Rounds 2 or 3?  Do you still take EDGE over a RB in R1, or do you take the RB instead?  Anyone who tries to wrap up these discussions in a nice, even bow is fooling themselves.  There's multiple variables involved.

 

Positional value is very important and your board should reflect, all things being equal an Edge should be graded above a Running Back.

I don't think its a brilliant idea to get caught up in depth of the draft class. Last year was a fantastic year for receivers and we wanted one but the guys we wanted got taken. If the guy on the top of your board is an Edge then you don't let the depth of the class stop you taking him. It might be an incredibly deep class but the guys you like might be liked by everyone else and taken

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23 hours ago, Mazrimiv said:

That Kenny Clark pick was such a waste.  Stupid Packers.  Gary too.  They never learn.

I didn't say don't draft young players.

I'm saying you want your first round pick to be good player mid way through his rookie class at the very latest.  

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On 4/11/2021 at 3:08 PM, HighCalebR said:

Yes, prime positions right, so you know about value. So they wouldnt take the best player regardless of position. How we percieve the team vs how Brian percieves the teams needs may be different but it doesnt mean he's going pure BPA. Do you think Gute picks Quenton Nelson over Jaire? Ive got serious doubts.

It would be a better question if we knew how Gute had the two of them graded out.

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Possible draft combinations (per PackersWire): 

CB Round 1:

First round: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
Second round: OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
Third round: DL Alim McNeil, NC State

First round: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
Second round: OT Brady Christensen, BYU
Third round: DL Osa Odighizuwa, UCLA

First round: CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State
Second round: OT Walker Little, Stanford
Third round: DL Tommy Togiai, Ohio State

Give me the #2 group, followed by #3. 

DL Round 1: 

First round: DL Christian Barmore, Alabama
Second round: CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse
Third round: OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa

I could live with this, but I'm actually not a big fan of Melifonwu. 

OT Round 1: 

First round: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
Second round: CB Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky
Third round: DL Tyler Shelvin, LSU

First round: OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame
Second round: DL Levi Onwuzurike, Washington
Third round: CB Benjamin St-Juste, Minnesota

First round: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Second round: CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford
Third round: DL Daviyon Nixon, Iowa

Group # 3 would be a sweet haul. Probably go #2 over #1 but it's close. 

Edited by packfanfb
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8 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

You can get good run plugs in the 3rd-7th rounds.

I'm not a believe that the Packers' run defense is a killer problem, myself.  So I'm not super prioritized on expending high draft-capital on a run-plug type.  Last season down the stretch, vs Titans and versus Tampa, when they decided they wanted to prioritize run-stoppage, they contained it pretty well.  They sure didn't lose the Tampa game because run-containment failed.  It was the offense, the pass pressure, and the pass coverage that failed, not run contain.  So, I'm not pushing a "need-a-run-plug" agenda here.  

That said, while it may be true that "you can get good run plugs int he 3rd-7th rounds", that hypothetical possibility doesn't mean it's all that likely or easy or probable.  Lowry wasn't.  Montraveous wasn't.  Thornton wasn't.  The Packers haven't actually successfully drafted a good run plug since Johnny Jolly in 2006, 15 years ago, and he was available in that spot in part due to his personal baggage, which ended up limiting his volume of Packer productivity.  Daniels in 2012 was a terrific pick, maybe you'd classify him as a run plug too?  Still, it's not like you can just grab those any time or any year with 3rd-day picks.

I think some of this applies to the familiar RB narrative too: "You can pick up good RB's in the middle rounds."  Aaron Jones is evidence that it's true, you "can".  But he's the best RB the team has had since Ahman Green, and they've drafted a whole bundle of 3rd day (and 2nd day) RB since Ahman.  

The batting average on 3rd day run-plugs and RB's isn't zero, and is obviously well higher than quality QB's and edges.  But it's still pretty low.  

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Just getting on the draft stuff a little now, for some reason not as focused on it as previous years. So this might have been said already and if it I know this will most likely be an unpopular opnion here BUT if Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is available in the 20's I'm trading up again this year and getting him!!!

 

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Even though OT and DL are considered premium picks, since 2014 the Packers have only drafted 4 in the Top 100. The probable cause ? Not being able to hit on DB's and burning crazy assets on them. If I were GM I would take that as a hint to use FA to fill the need at CB. It has taken a toll on the roster. In the same time span 8 DB's have been chosen in the Top 100, all of them being 1st and 2nd Round picks. Used 2 picks in the Top 100 at TE in the last 2 years as well smh.

2017: Montravius Adams at #61

2016: Kenny Clark at #27  Jason Spriggs at #48

2014: Khyri Thorton at #85

Edited by cannondale
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9 hours ago, craig said:

I'm not a believe that the Packers' run defense is a killer problem, myself.  So I'm not super prioritized on expending high draft-capital on a run-plug type.  Last season down the stretch, vs Titans and versus Tampa, when they decided they wanted to prioritize run-stoppage, they contained it pretty well.  They sure didn't lose the Tampa game because run-containment failed.  It was the offense, the pass pressure, and the pass coverage that failed, not run contain.  So, I'm not pushing a "need-a-run-plug" agenda here.  

That said, while it may be true that "you can get good run plugs int he 3rd-7th rounds", that hypothetical possibility doesn't mean it's all that likely or easy or probable.  Lowry wasn't.  Montraveous wasn't.  Thornton wasn't.  The Packers haven't actually successfully drafted a good run plug since Johnny Jolly in 2006, 15 years ago, and he was available in that spot in part due to his personal baggage, which ended up limiting his volume of Packer productivity.  Daniels in 2012 was a terrific pick, maybe you'd classify him as a run plug too?  Still, it's not like you can just grab those any time or any year with 3rd-day picks.

I think some of this applies to the familiar RB narrative too: "You can pick up good RB's in the middle rounds."  Aaron Jones is evidence that it's true, you "can".  But he's the best RB the team has had since Ahman Green, and they've drafted a whole bundle of 3rd day (and 2nd day) RB since Ahman.  

The batting average on 3rd day run-plugs and RB's isn't zero, and is obviously well higher than quality QB's and edges.  But it's still pretty low.  

Neither Lowry, Thornton or Daniels were run plugs. Montravious and Jolly were closer, but still weren't pure in the fit. 

You seem to be looking to fill these spots with superstars. In the case of run plugs and RBs, you don't need them. Cheap and adequate is the goal. 

Lancaster (in a run plug role, not a 50% of snaps role) and Jamal Williams, with contract in hand, are tremendous bargains and help teams win. 

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5 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

Just getting on the draft stuff a little now, for some reason not as focused on it as previous years. So this might have been said already and if it I know this will most likely be an unpopular opnion here BUT if Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is available in the 20's I'm trading up again this year and getting him!!!

 

I like him, but he's a very unique player.  Listed at LB, but too small to sit inside and take on blocks and fill on a regular basis.  He's more of a hybrid S/LB, like Josh Jones should have been.  

While I like the player, I'm not trading up for that.  

And if you go ILB/S with the first picks, you are really chasing your tail in the draft in regards to getting OT/CB and maybe a WR.

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4 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Lancaster (in a run plug role, not a 50% of snaps role) and Jamal Williams, with contract in hand, are tremendous bargains and help teams win. 

Agreed. I was disappointed to see Williams walk for that reason. 

 

----

Have we discussed Teven Jenkins much at all? Just looked at some tape. Trying to figure out what I make of him as I've seen him up and down the boards. He had 36 reps on his pro day and boasts a 9.73 RAS score. TDN thinks he's a developmental guy, but this tape tells me otherwise. The only real weaknesses I found on this tape are that his hands are a bit slow at times and that he got fatigued late in the game letting opposing defenders get into his chest.

 

Further reading suggests that the Colts may make a play for him at 21 though he seems better as a RT than LT. During the 2019 Iowa State game, you'll notice that he starts at LT, but then is moved to RT where he appears to be a bit more fluid FWIW.
 

 

If we're looking for a RT, I think he may be plug-n-play based on the two videos I saw here. His technique in the 2019 game is solid, though speedwise he looks sluggish compared to that of last year's tape where not only is he more fluid, but he looks very natural coming out of his stance with plus vision. In fact, if you go to about the 6 minute mark you can see him driving a defender straight out of bounds.

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5 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Neither Lowry, Thornton or Daniels were run plugs. Montravious and Jolly were closer, but still weren't pure in the fit. 

You seem to be looking to fill these spots with superstars. In the case of run plugs and RBs, you don't need them. Cheap and adequate is the goal. 

Lancaster (in a run plug role, not a 50% of snaps role) and Jamal Williams, with contract in hand, are tremendous bargains and help teams win. 

I'd love a superstar who could **pressure** as well as play run.  Pressure up the middle changes everything, and a super-duper-star like Donald changes everything.  

But no, I'm NOT looking for Reggie White or Donald with our end-of-round picks.  And I'm *NOT* looking for run-plug, myself.  As you and I have both expressed, we haven't drafted run-plugs in ages.  *IF* we happen to hit on one on Day 3, good.  But since few run plugs can ALSO pressure, I personally am NOT obsessed with run D, and am not too interested in burning a 1st or 2nd round pick on a guy whose upside is no more than run-plug. 

My comment was simply that *IF* it is run-plug that you really want, it's a fallacy to assume those are readily available Day 3.  Possible, yes, but a lowish shooting percentage even if that's what you're drafting with the intent to find. 

I don't think I have quite the same view as you on RB.  Surely teams often are great with adequate RB.  But I do think there are some systems today, the Packers included, that use and depend on their RB's more heavily.  The RB gets used in so many different ways, run, receiver, block, sweep,  etc., that a system that wants so much from it's backs won't excel if you replace Jones/Williams/Dillon with three Brandon Jacksons or three Alex Greens (both high picks), or by 3rd-day picks like Dexter, Devante  Mays, DeShawn Wynn, Najeh Davenport, De'Mond Parker,  Edwin Watson, Chris Darkins.  (Interesting to look back at drafts.  The Packers really have NOT spent many 3rd-day picks on backs over the last 25 years.  Starks, Williams, and Jones are three pretty successful picks out of less than a dozen 3rd-day selections.  in 20+ years.  

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19 minutes ago, craig said:

I'd love a superstar who could **pressure** as well as play run.  Pressure up the middle changes everything, and a super-duper-star like Donald changes everything.  

But no, I'm NOT looking for Reggie White or Donald with our end-of-round picks.  And I'm *NOT* looking for run-plug, myself.  As you and I have both expressed, we haven't drafted run-plugs in ages.  *IF* we happen to hit on one on Day 3, good.  But since few run plugs can ALSO pressure, I personally am NOT obsessed with run D, and am not too interested in burning a 1st or 2nd round pick on a guy whose upside is no more than run-plug. 

My comment was simply that *IF* it is run-plug that you really want, it's a fallacy to assume those are readily available Day 3.  Possible, yes, but a lowish shooting percentage even if that's what you're drafting with the intent to find. 

I don't think I have quite the same view as you on RB.  Surely teams often are great with adequate RB.  But I do think there are some systems today, the Packers included, that use and depend on their RB's more heavily.  The RB gets used in so many different ways, run, receiver, block, sweep,  etc., that a system that wants so much from it's backs won't excel if you replace Jones/Williams/Dillon with three Brandon Jacksons or three Alex Greens (both high picks), or by 3rd-day picks like Dexter, Devante  Mays, DeShawn Wynn, Najeh Davenport, De'Mond Parker,  Edwin Watson, Chris Darkins.  (Interesting to look back at drafts.  The Packers really have NOT spent many 3rd-day picks on backs over the last 25 years.  Starks, Williams, and Jones are three pretty successful picks out of less than a dozen 3rd-day selections.  in 20+ years.  

I know you are not calling for run-plug defensive players to be drafted, but you did make me go back and look at this. The Packers just don't draft those types often and rightfully so. Adams was drafted because they felt he could be a inside pressure player. Jolly was a 6th rounder who fit that to a degree. Raji was a very good run player, but he was drafted that high because he was a human wreaking ball that could compress the pocket. Sherman drafted James Lee in 2003 and he was probably drafted for the run defense only. The Packers historically draft DL that play the run on the way to the QB and I really don't disagree with that. Guys that are heavy legged and only play the run, most of the time are fighting for one of the last roster spots and sometimes are not even worth keeping on the 53.        

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2 hours ago, R T said:

...The Packers just don't draft those types often and rightfully so. ... The Packers historically draft DL that play the run on the way to the QB and I really don't disagree with that. Guys that are heavy legged and only play the run, most of the time are fighting for one of the last roster spots and sometimes are not even worth keeping on the 53.        

Agree.  

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